Greywolf












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30/12 GMT 23.08 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX I expect good things from this Hudson spin-off.. Good start! 30/12 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 1.5 (API + 1.7 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.3 (API - 1.4 mmbls) Distillates - 2.0 (API - 3.5 mmbls) Crude Imports 8.0 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.8 mmbopd Refiners 80.6% If the US imported itīs usual 9 - 10 mmbopd and 1 mmbopd of Gasoline the following charts would be off the planet! No lack of Crude and refiners in work-over mode. The price of oil is still a dollar play with the Brent Spread thrown in just to make things interesting. Look for the new sour Crude pricing to take effect in the new year... 30/12 GMT 08.07 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT Today Cellpoint Connect AB has published a PR concerning its package of measures to improve the financial situation of the Company. Trading in the Cellpoint Connect AB shares (CPNT) will be resumed on December 30, 2009 at 09.20 CET. The Orderbook opens at 08.45 CET. Trading was halted on December 16, 2009. Trading will be resumed on the AktieTorget Observation List (unchanged). 29/12 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 1.7 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 1.4 mmbls) Distillates (API - 3.5 mmbls) 25/12 GMT 22.12 Australia - Sydney to Hobart ROLEX SYDNEY HOBART YACHT RACE Having sailed this one three times I can only say - itīs a tough race.. 24/12 GMT 11.03 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX Great IPO, nice float. Market cap is a paltry $21m... 23/12 GMT 23.07 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT "Look for the Trading Stop and the Observation List - listing to be lifted very soon. A new AGM is also imminent... Hopefully before the end of the Financial Year." The new financiers need to do a bit of "Cleaning House" first! As you do in similar situations.. 22/12 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 3.7 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 1.1 mmbls) Distillates (API - 0.7 mmbls) The decline in storage was overall less than the market expected.. Thin trading volume this and next week due to the holidays.. 21/12 GMT 04.36 OPEC - Output I predict OPEC will have to either increase compliance to the current production quota or actually cut output in Q1-Q2 as compliance to the current production quota is around 50%... The World is more, more than well supplied with oil at the moment... 21/12 GMT 02.56 Global Warming? - No, no dear that was last week! - Now itīs called Global Freezing!! The Eastern US is facing the coldest weather in Decades... So if you are to belive the historical time frame behind the science pushed by organisations like the UNīs IPCC we are heading for - Global Freezing!??!?? Sea Cliff Long Island, New York. 21/12 GMT 01.07 The Greywolf Site - 17.000.000 Unique Visitors Coming up on 17 million pretty much any hour now.. Which again... Larger scheme... I know this site is sometimes, what the hell almost always Cryptic and I do not go into a lenghty Analysis of Whatever.. Yeah well that is how things are. I Thank You for Your Patronage! 11/10 GMT 21.12 The Greywolf Site - 16.000.000 Unique Visitors Just ticked over the 16 million mark... Which in the larger scheme of things is fairly unimportant... 20/12 GMT 23.47 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX Interesting trading levels coming up... 20/12 GMT 23.24 Cellpoint Connect CPNT:XSAT Look for the Trading Stop and the Observation List - listing to be lifted very soon. A new AGM is also imminent... Hopefully before the end of the Financial Year. 20/12 GMT 03.01 The Market - Financial Crisis turns to Fiscal Crisis The Stimulus Packages that have driven the market since earlier this year are about to run out and when they do most politicians will want to roll them over for yet another "Tax-Payer" paid for "stock market run".. This then puts us even deeper into the Fiscal Crisis that is fast coming over the hill. See my earlier postings on this from 2007, 30/10, 9/11 2008 etc... The immediate threat is the after years end fall in the market as trade now is very much centered on bonuses and end of year "make the numbers look good" trading. A Fiscal Crisis is however something very much more serious and lenghty.. A Stimulus driven market is a market on Steroids.. Makes you feel strong but it makes other parts Limp... 20/12 GMT 01.27 Climate Change - In the Solar Community A worthy repost, "Mars is being hit by rapid climate change and it is happening so fast that the red planet could lose its southern ice cap. Scientists from Nasa say that Mars has warmed by about 0.5C since the 1970s. This is similar to the warming experienced on Earth over approximately the same period. Since there is no known life on Mars it suggests rapid changes in planetary climates could be a natural phenomena."..... 19/12 GMT 13.41 Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria - Copenhagen - The Total Fiasco!! And so the Comedy Ends! The total Fiasco is the best thing that could have happened!!! One can only hope that this is due to the fact that the "Man Made Climate Change Hysteria" is slowly being exposed for what it is ie BullShit! To the G77 and the developing/third world that wants more money from the rest of us I can only say - Adapt! Adapt! A word that was even interestingly used by President Obama several times, Adapt!.. This site has been saying for a very, very long time.. Climate Change is a Naturally occuring event - Adapt!!! So Adapt! And in this I mean everyone - Adapt!!! 18/12 GMT 03.23 Australia - Censored Internet There is a senator in Australia called Stephen Conroy, who it must be belived had a very troubled childhood... He is the Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy. Stephen has long wanted to censor the internet "in country" to protect the Citizens (so history buffs - sound familiar?)... And the Federal Government has announced it will proceed with the controversial legislation to censor the internet.. (so again history buffs - does this not sound a bit too familiar?) 17/12 GMT 20.57 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM "This sites "Buy Rating" stands firm"... So the Share Issue is covered to the tune of 92% with the remaining 8% taken up by Penser.. This is far better than the previous RI which only came in at 60%. But then there is a lot more substance in the company today than there was in January.. The total diluted amount of shares in the company is now 59.200.148. Still a small float, in a given risky venture yet no risk no reward... As to the speculation about the technology surrounding SPC.... 17/12 GMT 01.09 China - Power Output Chinas power output grew by 18% on an annual basis in November. This then after factors like extreme cold weather for the month and also the weak base-line comparison to 2008 were taken into consideration. 17/12 GMT 00.39 So where does the USA Import its Oil from? - Total Petroleum Imports CANADA 2.4 mmbopd MEXICO 1.3 mmbopd VENEZUELA 1.15 mmbopd SAUDI ARABIA 1,0 mmbopd NIGERIA 0.9 mmbopd ALGERIA 0.6 mmbopd RUSSIA 0.5 mmbopd IRAQ 0.5 mmbopd ANGOLA 0.4 mmbopd COLOMBIA 0.3 mmbopd UNITED KINGDOM 0.3 mmbopd VIRGIN ISLANDS 0.3 mmbopd BRAZIL 0.3 mmbopd KUWAIT 0.3 mmbopd ECUADOR 0.15 mmbopd IRAN 0.000 mmbopd Canada... Not Saudi Arabia... Since the middle of the 90īs Canada has doubled itīs exports to the US or rather the US has doubled itīs Imports. With more infrastructure this amount can steadily increase going forward.. It should be noted that the US produces about 27% of itīs daily consumption needs domestically at about 5.5 mmbopd, up 8% from the same time in 2008... 16/12 GMT 19.50 Africa Oil Corp - AOI:V Again an old favourite of this site... Been involved with this one for a long time, long time.. Finally things are starting to fall into place. The companies infrastructure could not be better with a competency level par none amongst the staff.. More on this one going forward.. The ongoing drill seems positive. 16/12 GMT 08.23 Cellpoint Connect CPNT:XSAT - Trading Halted Cellpoint Connect has present negotiations with external financial parties. The Trading Halt is valid until further notice. More information about the present negotiations with the external financial parties and a statement from PricewaterhouseCoopers about the Companyīs actual condition will be published shortly. I did write, "There are some Major Developments in the Pipeline!..." 15/12 GMT 03.04 Australia - Man Made Climate Change Hysteria on Steroids! The Rudd Government will make one last attempt at having the Senate pass its Emissions Trading Scheme legislation when it reintroduces the legislation on February 2. The ETS would only add 62%! to the price of electricity by 2013... 15/12 GMT 02.42 Iraq - Oil Production Increase I wrote, 14/7 GMT 17.28 Iraq - Oil Production Increase An ambitious plan has been drawn up to raise Iraq's oil production to 6.0 mmbopd by a deadline of 2017, according to Iraqi Premier Nouri al-Maliki. Iraq needs European capital and experts for the rebuilding process the Premier went on to say at the Eastern European Gas conference in Ankara. By way of the production deals made with international oil firms like Statoil, Lukoil etc.. Interesting that US firms miss the boat.. Smart politics! Anyway Iraq can rival Saudi Arabia as the second largest source of Oil on the Planet.. In this the Iraqi Western Desert is the Key... 9/12 GMT 22.25 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent Yeah... maybe below $70 before the end of the year. Next area of major support is around $66.60 yet a long way there still. If $70 holds a bounce is not out of the question.. A Dollar play as I stated before, the US stats were just the instigator... 9/12 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 3.8 (API + 5.8 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.2 (API - 0.8 mmbls) Distillates + 1.6 (API + 1.0 mmbls) Crude Import 8.1 mmbopd Refiners 81.1% On the whole a market neutral/negative report from the DOE.. 9/12 GMT 10.58 OPEC - Output And so the leaking of intentions begins.. Libya Oil Min: OPEC Won't Change Output At Next Meeting 8/12 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 3.8 (API + 5.8 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.2 (API - 0.8 mmbls) Distillates + 1.6 (API + 1.0 mmbls) Crude Import 9.5 mmbopd Refiners 81.4% The inflated Crude numbers are due to the increase of about 1 mmbopd in Crude imports. Even if Refiners did up the capacity by 1.3%. Should give Crude a lift ahead of the DOE stats. Yet the contracts are more dependent on the Dollar than stats like these at the moment as the market is more than well supplied with Crude, more than well... "The fundamentals are not good with Crude being stored as I have written about before on VLCCīs to the tune of +120 MMbls at least, add to this the storage in on-shore terminals and most importantly the spare production capacity that is evident in most oil producing nations." 7/12 GMT 23.42 The Site & Oil The site has veered off the path somewhat of late with a centered interest in small Swedish domestic companies. Not without very, very good reason I have to add yet still not the core of the site. This will change going forward... 7/12 GMT 22.45 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent So where now the price of Crude? I can see $70 WTI before the end of the year and with all the pieces falling the right or wrong way all depending on your place in the market even below that.. Yet itīs all a "Dollar Play" so letīs not get too excited... 7/12 GMT 21.21 Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria - Copenhagen And so the Comedy begins! Sources say that the organisers of the event have super-charged the ventilation system in the complex in order to remove all of the "Smug Farts" that are going to be emitted by the delegates to this Farce! Man Made Climate Change is a Hoax it is selfserving Crap that ofcourse is big business for the political and scientific community, yet as the hacking of one institution shows all is not as it seems... Well Done Hackers! Evenso the facts about Mans part in Climate Change are clear, they are null in the global perspective. Ofourse locally environment is affected by our activity but we canīt change the climate. Australia I am proud to say has seen politicians brave enough to stand up and say - Enough! That we are going through a change in the climate is one thing and the answer is to Adapt - not tax! The Earth has gone through thousands, hundred of thousands of these changes and still we are here, incredible.. The difference is that the amount of politicians have increased by an alarming number... More or less in strict correlation to the increase in hysteria! Something for the delegates to peruse.. I have written about this for years so just do a Ctrl+F and flick through the Earlier Postings... 2/12 GMT 14.37 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - A New Bond Loan A new Bond Loan to pay the "Parent Company" for the old bond loan... OK itīs simple refinansing yet. The company at the same time needs Cash to pay for running costs and not at least the interest rate on the Convertible Rights Issue due 15 January 2010.... So why not take it out of the New Bond Loan, as cash-flow from "whatever production" is currently happening does not bring in enough Cash... "The old bond loan amounts to NOK 300,000,000 and has an annual effective coupon rate of 8.75 percent. It matures on 10 March 2010 and the bond loan was issued by the Parent Company." It will be interesting to see the coupon rate on the new loan.. Especially as for the next year and a half the company also has a Bond Loan at USD 100,000,000 that has an annual effective coupon rate of 10 percent. It matures on 20 June 2011.. There is even a third loan running that matures in 2012... This along with a whole host of other "things" is ofcourse not news to anyone investing in the company.. Or is it..? 2/12 GMT 11.47 Cellpoint Connect CPNT:XSAT There are some Major Developments in the Pipeline!... The 14/12 is the Milliarium... 29/11 GMT 17.19 Just an Early Monday Morning Thought! Outside a Book a Mans best friend is a Dog, inside a Dog itīs too Dark to Read.. Groucho Marx 29/11 GMT 17.18 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM This sites "Buy Rating" stands firm... 27/11 GMT 22.20 China - Power Output A statistic that is a bit of old news yet... Chinas power output grew by 17.1% on an annual basis to 312.1 billion kWh in October. This then after a fall of 7% in September. The comparison to 2008 stats should be viewed in the light of a major fall in output from July 2008 onwards. A Note: As industrial activity accounts for more than 70% of China’s power consumption, consequently power output is viewed as a key economic indicator... 27/11 GMT 22.08 Etrion ETX:TO 27/11 GMT 21.52 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX "I can only reiterate - There is a lot of TYK in this company".. Trust your investment decision and just let it ride! 27/11 GMT 13.49 Oil USA - Crude Production According to Platts US production of Crude is set to see an increase by 6.4% for this year, 2009. This then the largest increase in 40 years... So much for Peak Oil in North America... Yeah you know Hubbert's Peak is BS!! Old theory, warped statistics and the rest.. The fact is that the US could increase itīs domestic production of oil and gas by twice todays numbers if exploration was allowed around the entire coastline and tar sands, oil shale sites were given the full exploration rights... Ofcourse you canīt totally discount the Peak Oil theory based on one statistic observation, yet there are too many stats from around the globe that put a huge dent in the almost religious theorem.... That Hubbert's Peak is based on data from the 1950īs and in North America does say a lot.... especially as the US actually can increase production and 1P Reserves.. 27/11 GMT 13.41 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX Why so disconsolate? 2009 has to date not been a "great" year as far as exploration goes but there have also been a lot of successes in Luno, PL340, 25/4-10S, 16/1-12, 16/2-5.. Petrovskaya-1 yeah not so much to be happy about, yet no harm, no foul.. No Capex no Worries but also no Future! 27/11 GMT 10.07 USA - S&P I wrote earlier, 7/10 GMT 04.26 USA - S&P Again another writing on the wall, 18/8 GMT 01.47 USA - VIX Index The Correction is coming ever closer, and it will be deep and fast.. -20% to -30% on the S&P.. Or "Lalaland" could continue for months, but sooner or later you always have to pay for the dance! I see the fall coming closer and closer as the markets are tired and way over-stretched and the "Lalaland" sentiment is getting real old real fast... Dubai is one of those "small" things that can trigger the whole thing.... 27/11 GMT 03.31 Etrion ETX:TO Check it out... 27/11 GMT 02.51 Cellpoint Connect CPNT:XSAT I became aware of this company as you do in the investment sector about one week before the first posting on this site. IT technology is not really my field but now and again you have to broaden your horizons... CPNT is a spin-off from Ericsson and this is where the problems start as the people who ran the company after the spin-off are technology-types ie they can build incredibly innovative devices but, Business - yeah not so much! The company was put on the Observation List due to Financial Reporting and Financial problems ie no reports and no money.. This is now being addressed as new investors have come into the company and an AGM is called for the 14/12 to bring clarity to the situation. The new investors have put in new capital to the tune of about 30% of the current market cap and this then in a belife in the products the company has and itīs future. The company has orders with China Mobile and in this also an option for further orders to the same company the missing bit has been capital, which now is solved. Other than this there is Poland and not at least Russia... The stock is High Risk but as I wrote it is a prime "Turn Around Candidate", well worth a good hard look! As I stated earlier "A removal from Aktietorgets Observation List is imminent!".. And this is a critical part of the companies immediate and long term future...... 24/11 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 3.3 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 1.7 mmbls) Distillates (API - 2.4 mmbls) 24/11 GMT 03.43 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM - Rights Issue SPC Technology... MALÅ Geoscience is one thing. SPC is something completely different... Just a reflection.. 18/11 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 0.9 (API - 4.4 mmbls) Gasoline - 1.7 (API - 0.1 mmbls) Distillates - 0.3 (API + 0.5 mmbls) Refineries 79.4% Import 8.6 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 4.2 18/11 GMT 14.27 Cellpoint Connect CPNT:XSAT - Observation List A removal from Aktietorgets Observation List is imminent!.. Trading volumes should pick up right smartly on the back of this. 17/11 GMT 16.52 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM - Rights Issue Well that was fairly predictable... The company is looking for 35MSEK and with 29 484 074 shares outstanding the Issue Price could only be 1.2SEK, just basic mathematics. 16/11 GMT 14.33 Cellpoint Connect CPNT:XSAT A very interesting "Real Turnaround" candidate.. Worth a good look! 13/11 GMT 09.50 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM - Q3 - 9 Month Report The report itself showed slightly better numbers, bottom line than for the same period last year. Rather irrelevant as the center of interest lies in the new technology being developed. This costs money and there is a risk involved but the technology is such that the risk is worth taking. The company has after a reverse split 29 484 074 shares outstanding, a fairly small float for a company on this side of the aisle.. Much of the reason for the earlier than expected report was - information. 12/11 GMT 23.38 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Q3 - 9 Month Report If you followed the September presentation this report was more than predictable.. The interesting thing is what is happening in Russia, especially as far as different environmental restrictions are concerned. 12/11 GMT 23.20 OIL - The IEA Finally the IEA is starting to get the picture! The Peak Oil "nutters" have cluttered up the airwaves long enough, itīs time to get practical about Oil Demand and Oil Supply.. 12/11 GMT 16.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 1.8 (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 2.5 (API na mmbls) Distillates + 0.3 (API na mmbls) Refineries 79.9% Import 8.7 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.0 US demand for Petroleum Products is down by almost 5% yoy.. Saudi Arabian shipments of Crude to the US are at the 2002/2003 level. Distillate demand is 14% below last year.. 12/11 GMT 11.46 Site Updates Due to travel the site has not been updated for awhile... Coffs Harbour, NSW.. 3/11 GMT 17.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 3.3 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 0.5 mmbls) Distillates (API + 1.8 mmbls) Refiners 80.5% - 1.3% The API reports Imports to be down... I think these numbers are somewhat skewed with the fairly large drop in Refinery Output.. 3/11 GMT 03.14 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM Looking good, looking very good... 2/11 GMT 05.32 China - Power Output China's power generation in September fell 7% from a record high in August, but year on year growth quickened to 9.5%, the fastest in 16 months, mainly due to the comparison to last year's weakened base. Power generation has picked up in the past few months as electricity demand gradually recovers in the world's third largest economy, which has been given a boost by government Stimulus Spending. Any year on year stats should be seen in the light of the fact that 2008 was pretty bad, worse... A Note: As industrial activity accounts for more than 70% of China’s power consumption, consequently power output is viewed as a key economic indicator... 2/11 GMT 04.11 China - HSBC PMI The HSBC PMI came in at 55.4, up from 55.0 in September. Running faster than 18 months ago. Yet remember China much like the the US is on Stimulus Steroids... Good News for sure but I just want to point to the fact that this could be short lived. 2/11 GMT 01.39 2012 - The End? Or Just a Calendar Ticking Over?? The Mayan k'in Calendar much like an Odometer ticks over to a new cycle on 21/12/12 or does it...? I think the about 7 million current Mayan decendents would like to see the calendar just do that.. Others see the end of The World!! I see an Interesting Options spread bet.... Three years from now... Mayan k'in - Long Count Calendar Countdown
1/11 GMT 22.43 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent - Argus Sour Crude Index Here we go again... Last week Aramco said it would start to use the Argus Sour Crude Index for the pricing of itīs oil, which actually makes sense as the quality of oil would be more in line with or congruent to WTI as the Argus index is calculated as a differential to the NYMEX light sweet crude (WTI) settlement price. NYMEX will start listing the new contracts around the end of the year. It should be said this has been tried before but it lookīs like it may work this time. More transparity! Note that the ASC-Index is used for sales to the US.. 29/10 GMT 02.35 USA - Q3 GDP Report If itīs below 3% itīs bad, concensus is 3.2%.. Yet it is the internals that are the crux - Final Sales, which is GDP minus the Inventory Change.. Look for 1.5% which is good, lower and itīs whooa long hard weekend... One thing donīt forget that these GDP numbers hold a lot of Government Stimulus money ie they are Fluff. Itīs only when the economy hits the road clean from "Washington Steroids" that we will know how the US really is trucking along.. 28/10 GMT 16.03 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Q3Report It is getting increasingly difficult for the company to get a grasp on all of the promises, prognosis and half truths it has produced. It is also becoming critical for the company to somehow pay off current loans and keep the new bankers happy. Daily production is at the same level as in 2004/2005 and unless the company can find a project that actually has production, well then... All of the projects in Africa with "stuppendous potential and huge reserves... etc" are nothing more than pipe-dreams and a hope that it will be better next year, or the year after that or. None of these will come on line for production before 2012/2014 at best and that is if the exploration phase goes totally as planned. So where is the next xxxx bopd production project, actual money in the bank project?? There is none! Dwindeling/stagnant current production, growing debts, no capex going forward.. Even more sold/unsold oil ex royalties? "the missing barrels".. Where is the money going to come from to buy into the African licences ahead of production or even pay development costs? Unless the company can severly improve itīs cash-base, well then... 17/10 GMT 22.27 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM I stand fully behind this Rights Issue, even if it adds on to the 7.5 MSEK from earlier this year. Yet a further 35 MSEK is nothing at this stage of the companyīs development. Nothing has changed my position on the - Buy Rating. Very Seldom Given - I might Add! Yet a caveat... If I am being missinformed from whatever source or there is even a hint of the old Swedish-Two-Step I will drop this stock like a Brick! 13/10 GMT 08.31 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - Luno Lundin Petroleum has successfully completed production testing of the Luno field discovery well 16/1-8. The well was temporarily abandoned as a discovery well in 2007, with the objective to re-enter the well for future well testing (DST) and permanent abandonment. The well 16/1-8 was re-entered, perforated and tested in two intervals with flow rate up to approximately 5,700 barrels of oil per day (900 Sm3/day) through a one inch (64/64") choke. Production testing operation was carried out with the drilling unit Transocean Winner, in a water depth of 108 metres. Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO of Lundin Petroleum comments: "The test results from this well are positive. We are proceeding with the preparation of the field development plan for Luno in tandem with a further appraisal well in early 2010 which will allow us to optimise the development plan and potentially increase Luno recoverable reserves." 11/10 GMT 21.12 The Greywolf Site - 16.000.000 Unique Visitors Just ticked over the 16 million mark... Which in the larger scheme of things is fairly unimportant... 11/10 GMT 14.58 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX I can only reiterate - There is a lot of TYK in this company, especially in the way the company is run day to day... Think on it! 10/10 GMT 12.31 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - The North Sea Please note the salient facts concerning Thistle & Broom...
  • Company Presentation
  • 10/10 GMT 10.05 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - The Missing Barrels Since 2007 the company has somehow "lost" about 2 mmbls.. Where are they? Or rather are they... The discrepancy between produced and sold barrels of oil actually comes to 2 mmbls since 2007. You have to wonder where these missing barrels are or were.. Strange that the company can store unsold oil at the same time they are asking the share-holders for more cash... I am sure itīs very easy for the company to bring clarity to this situation.. 9/10 GMT 14.46 Norway - Nobel Peace Prize - And now for something completely different.. Itīs Alfred Nobels Flying Circuisessss... And the winner is - Not George Bush! The twelve Eurovision Song Contest points go to Barack Obama who when nominated had been President for all of two weeks..!! You have to like the Norweigans who always give us a Good Laugh in October!!! 7/10 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 1.0 (API - 0.25 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.9 (API + 0.55 mmbls) Distillates + 0.7 (API - 2.9 mmbls) Refineries 85.0% Import 9.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 3.8 7/10 GMT 04.26 USA - S&P Again another writing on the wall, 18/8 GMT 01.47 USA - VIX Index The Correction is coming ever closer, and it will be deep and fast.. -20% to -30% on the S&P.. Or "Lalaland" could continue for months, but sooner or later you always have to pay for the dance! 7/10 GMT 03.59 Australia - The First Country Out of Recession I did write, 28/5 GMT 01.42 The First Country Out of Recession It is turning out to be a race between two of my favourite countries - Australia and the US, itīs a family thing! Both of the Worlds most Capitalist Countries are in I would have to say a dead heat, Yet with as it turns out a slight favouritism to Australia. Commodities is the name of the game in this play and when things turn around the OZ economy is the one of comparative stability and this will only build in the face of increased commodity demand... The RBA pretty much confirmed it...! 7/10 GMT 03.54 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX I did write, "Yeah, I think we may be coming to the end of this run-up".... As it turns out there is more to build on and in this I would recall my caveat. "However there is a lot of a future TYK in this stock, a lot". In this my point being that the company/stock will surprise you... 6/10 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 0.25 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 0.55 mmbls) Distillates (API - 2.9 mmbls) Refineries 83.0% Import 9.1 mmbopd 3/10 GMT 16.25 Desire Petroleum - DES:AIM - Falkland Islands - Four New Wells Finally the long awaited drilling programme is set to get going in Feb 2010.. Four wells, with an option of six more. Diamond Offshore Drilling's semi-submersible unit Ocean Guardian is set to do the work. To be drilled is the Alpha Project. Alpha is a large, well-defined, structural closure, covering an area of over 300 square kilometres. Desire’s mid-estimate for the potential recoverable reserves for Alpha is 7.8 trillion cubic feet, with 15 Tcf in the upside case.
  • Company Site
  • 1/10 GMT 05.56 Lundin Petroleum - Iraq - Bayou Bend Petroleum - BBP:V - ShaMaran Petroleum Corp For all those who missed the latest post 5/9 about this little venture..
  • Kurdistan Presentation
  • 1/10 GMT 05.24 Japan - Tankan Index The Large Manufaturing Index came in at - 33, a bit off from the expected - 32. The Index is now at the same level as it was in 2001! In other words, yeah not so good... 1/10 GMT 03.50 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX Yeah, I think we may be coming to the end of this run-up.... In this I should state that I did slightly miss the absolute bottom in the current cycle in December 2008, but there you are... However there is a lot of future TYK in this stock, a lot. 29/9 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 2.8 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 1.7 mmbls) Distillates (API + 2.3 mmbls) Refineries 83.6% Import 9.5 mmbopd Not enough demand and too much oil.. The correlation between the API and DOE stats is about 78% on a historical basis... 28/9 GMT 02.41 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent Both contracts fell - 9% last week... 25/9 GMT 04.20 Oil - The Contracts - WTI The technical signal for a further downward movement was broken at the $66.06 level.. Yet then there are the fundamentals and they are not calling for a higher oil price today. The fundamentals are not good with Crude being stored as I have written about before on VLCCīs to the tune of +120 MMbls at least, add to this the storage in on-shore terminals and most importantly the spare production capacity that is evident in most oil producing nations. Itīs just the Fundamentals!... 23/9 GMT 23.09 Oil - The Contracts - WTI There are many reasons as to why a lower oil price.. A slower than expected build in demand, the end to stimulus packages in many countries, huge amounts of Crude stored across the globe. OPEC over-producing, Russia today the biggest producer of oil beating Saudi Arabia. Huge amounts of Crude stored across the globe, again Huge amounts of Crude stored across the globe.. Etc.. $40 is a target.. 23/9 GMT 22.08 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX As to why the sudden interest in the stock and the volume in the trade... 23/9 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 2.8 mmbls (API + 0.3 mmbls) Gasoline + 5.4 mmbls (API + 3.8 mmbls) Distillates + 3.0 mmbls (API - 1.9 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.0 mmbls Crude Import 9.8 mmbopd Gasoline Import 1.0 mmbopd Refineries 85.6% 23/9 GMT 07.01 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM "A Buy rating is called for.. And thus given!" Not without merit! 23/9 GMT 06.59 Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria A worthy repost... Something for the Al Gore "indoctrinated", ie the "Patients are running the Asylum".. The simple fact is that Climate Change is a Naturally Occurring event and Humans need only to do One Thing - ADAPT! Taxation is not adapting it is sleazy politicians doing what they do best, pardon them because most of them are morons! Adaptation is changing the crops we grow, and where we grow them and when.. The Northen Hemisphere is going to see less oil dependency as winter becomes warmer, adapt! Etc.. Adapt to changed criteria... 23/9 GMT 01.32 DNO International - DNO:OBX - Iraq - Kurdistan A lot of the smart money left this stock when getting paid for "Oil Produced" became a problem... The signals were there.. I however belive that with the Norweigans on "All Fronts" eating enough humble pie and in fact apologizing to the KRG this can be settled in a fairly civilized manner. Also itīs always good to know with Whom you actually are doing business... Never forget - Oil is Political!!! Just because you happen to hand out the Noble Peace Prize..... 22/9 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 0.3 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 3.8 mmbls) Distillates (API - 1.9 mmbls) Driving Season is well and over! Still a build for Crude so again itīs down to the Import and Refinery Stats. Crude storage was expected to be drawn down by - 1.6 mmbls... 22/9 GMT 04.31 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Ashirovskoye Lundin finally cleaning the Valkyries House! Proven and probable reserves of the Ashirovskoye field were at 31/12 2008, 202.000 mmbls net to Lundin Petroleum. The sales price was $4 million. Now try to judge the value of the other Russian holdings of this company on the basis of this and the Lagansky deal!? Good Luck! 22/9 GMT 04.22 DNO International - DNO:OBX - Iraq - Kurdistan This latest problem, Yeah not so good! This is a Serious Problem... Yet this is Kurdistan and the ongoing battle between Iraq and the autonomys region is not going to go away anytime soon. Unless both sides simply as they see it make the better deal. DNO however have made some big mistakes. 19/9 GMT 04.07 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia Just a note. The deal with Gunvor does not preclude a deal with some other Russian or foreign entity. Not at all. 18/9 GMT 07.37 Carnarvon Petroleum Ltd CVN:ASX - Thailand Australia’s Carnarvon Petroleum has received a contingent resource estimate for concession L44 at 11.3 MMbls in Thailand. Carnarvon said the estimate demonstrated the success of its second and third quarter exploration program and would assist in the preparation and application of a production licence over the area. Concession L44 includes the Bo Rang A and B areas which, according to independent consultants Gaffney Cline & Associates, have a contingent resource estimate of 9.6 MMbbl. The L44-W structure, also within concession L44, is estimated to contain 1.7 MMbl. Gaffney Cline & Associates also estimated the NSE-F1 extension in concession L44/43 could contain 4.1MMbbl. 18/9 GMT 03.57 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Indonesia - Rangkas The farm out in itself is smart business as this region is tricky, and have we not been here before...!? Carnarvon Petroleum has lotīs of experience from Thailands waters and is in this a good partner at 25% with Lupe at 75%. Another deal another contact, that is how you build something larger. 18/9 GMT 03.28 Australia - Oil & Gas Just a general note, there are a lot of very interesting projects ongoing and soon to be ongoing in the country both on and off-shore. WA390P is one for instance.. Just a note... 17/9 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Natural Gas storage is just under 17% above the five year average. Last week 66 Bcf were added into storage. At the same time US domestic production of NG is 31% above the five year average. So no lack of gas here. 16/9 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 4.7 mmbls (API + 0.6 mmbls) Gasoline + 0.5 mmbls (API + 1.4 mmbls) Distillates + 2.2 mmbls (API + 1.3 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories - 3.2 mmbls Imports 8.9 mmbopd Itīs all about the Import numbers.. The market expected a drop in Crude Inventories of about 2.0 mmbls. Distillate Inventories are at a 26+ year high, so the Northen Winter better be cold... Post Labour Day weekend Gasoline demand is falling and is at a 9 month low.. 15/9 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 0.6 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 1.4 mmbls) Distillates (API + 1.3 mmbls) 15/9 GMT 04.01 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API The US is heading into a period of lower Crude demand and also the maintenance season for Refiners, so look for Refinery runs to fall. The interesting part is that Distillate stocks which are season-critical are unusually high for this time of year. Just a note... 15/9 GMT 03.59 OPEC - Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabias cut in production in order to live up to the OPEC quota has actually made Russia the largets producer of Oil in the short term. The Saudis which have more than taken their part of the cut in production can have lost as much as 25% of GDP on a yearly basis due to their adherence to the quota. Cheating amongst other producers is as I have pointed to before wide spread... 11/9 GMT 04.24 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - Luno Just a reminder, 3/4 GMT 06.17 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - StatoilHydro I did say things were afoot for Lundin... Lundin Petroleum will transfer to StatoilHydro a 30% licence interest in Production Licences 359 and 410, and a 10% interest in Production Licence 409 located in the GLA, north of the Sleipner field, Norway. StatoilHydro operates the nearby Sleipner and Grane platforms which are production facilities for oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf. StatoilHydro will pay a disproportionate share of the costs related to the 3D seismic programme to be carried out for PL359 and PL410 along with the one well to be drilled in each of the two licences. For PL409 StatoilHydro will enter at ground terms. Lundin Petroleum will remain operator of all of these Production Licences and will remain the key player in the GLA, along with StatoilHydro. In addition to these farmout arrangements, a rig swap has been agreed where Lundin Petroleum has been given the option to utilize two drill slots on a Barents Sea rig in exchange for two drill slots in the North Sea. Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO of Lundin Petroleum comments: "We are very pleased to be working closely with StatoilHydro in the Greater Luno Area. We believe that following the discovery of the Luno field the area has the potential to be a major new producing area on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. This transaction creates a joint ownership in the most important licences in the Greater Luno Area in order to secure a timely development of the area." 11/9 GMT 03.39 Japan - GDP Growth Yeah growth. Maybe not so much... Japan's economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.3% in the second quarter of 2009, a smaller expansion than initially estimated. The government had reported last month an annualised 3.7% growth for the quarter. New data also showed the economy grew 0.6% in the three months to June from the previous quarter, the first positive growth in more than a year but down from the 0.9% growth initially estimated. For Q1, the revised report showed the economy shrank by 3.3% from the previous quarter for an annualised contraction of 12.4%. 11/9 GMT 00.03 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX The "kitchen table laptop ie small investor" ownership of this company is closing in on 70% of the outstanding shares. Ofcourse this means that certain retail brokers are pushing this stock like there is no tomorrow, for no other reason than trade volume... Helped by an equally eager media. I am just saying... Azurite today, (Murphyoil numbers) the share to Pare 3.000 - 4.000 bopd so we are again back at about 12.000 bopd which has been pretty much the level since 2005... Where is the next real xxxx bopd project? Not exploration but real money in the bank xxxx bopd project?? The debts are the same and as it seems the asset ratio, for now. Just a rhetorical question... 10/9 GMT 23.24 Oil - Iran - Exports Revenue from Iranian oil exports plunged 51% in the first five months of the Iranian year due in no small part to the global economic recession. Revenue from the export of Iranian oil products was $1.57 billion for the first five months of the Iranian year, down from $3.26 billion in the same reporting period in 2008. In this the Iranian year begins March 21. 10/9 GMT 16.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 5.9 mmbls (API - 7.2 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.1 mmbls (API + 0.6 mmbls) Distillates + 2.0 mmbls (API + 3.3 mmbls) Import 9.1 mmbopd - 0.5 mmbopd Refiners 87.2% Total Petroleum Inventories - 5.1 mmbls Imports are about 1.0 mmbopd below the average hence the fall in Crude Inventories. There is however no lack of oil to import, rather the opposite is true... A fairly neutral report. 10/9 GMT 10.29 Bayou Bend Petroleum - BBP:V - ShaMaran Petroleum Corp 9/9 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 7.2 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 0.6 mmbls) Distillates (API + 3.3 mmbls) As the API stats are derived from different criteria and also where the Petroleum is in the system the big draw in Crude should be viewed in that context, refinery numbers are here crucial. The one to watch is the build in Distillates with winter on the way and all.... 8/9 GMT 00.43 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX Nice uptick in Canada 10.32%, and just above 8% in Sweden.. Stock doing nicelly on itīs short term up-trend since July and in the longer term since December 2008... Still a very good trader.. 7/9 GMT 23.17 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - PL338 - Wildcat Well 16/1-12 For a wildcat drill the result is not that bad, found was an oil column of about 40 metres in complex reservoir rocks of jointed bedrock, but no Jurassic reservoir rocks were present. which could be the discovery of a new field further to the South in an area as yet virgin territory. Preliminary analyses indicate an oil/water contact that is about 15 metres shallower compared with the 16/1-8 oil discovery, and this is then most probably a separate discovery.. 5/9 GMT 03.33 Bayou Bend Petroleum - BBP:V - ShaMaran Petroleum Corp I did write, 1/10 GMT 13.09 Bayou Bend Petroleum - BBP:V Worth a look! ShaMaran Petroleum Corp, the Lundin Groupīs little Iraqi adventure...
  • Kurdistan Presentation
  • 4/9 GMT 12.35 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Lagansky - A Further Comment The value of the Gunvor deal is not in the numbers because they are a zero-sum game. The value is in the structure of the deal. The Lagansky projects part of the current valuation of the company or itīs share price should be zero, with a certain exception given to the usual potential value of the project. To date it has only generated costs and there are as yet no bankable reserves. To assume a valuation of the company or the specific Lagansky project from the numbers in the deal is simply wrong. The numbers in the deal are again - zero-sum, nothing more nothing less. The real value is in the Structure of the deal.. 4/9 GMT 04.21 Oil - The Contracts - WTI A critical support level is $66.06 and if breached technically the way is open for $64.50.. 3/9 GMT 16.32 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Natural Gas storage is 18% above the 5 year average... 3/9 GMT 15.49 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Lagansky - A Comment So again the Lundin "boys" make a deal that may be a little hard for the market to digest straight away. Hark back one year when foreign oil companies were given marching orders by the Russian State and obscure Environmental Agencies put frankly "silly" demands on oil companies activities. Lupe came through this period with relative ease but were looking at losing the majority ownership in the Lagansky project to Gazprom. The deal with Gunvor changes the whole playing field, Lupe retain 70% of the field and have a partner with teeth and connections. So why? Has the Russian State gone mad? No ofcourse not.. Oil in Russia is like most commodities part of the National Security Grid and ownership of that grid is Russian, yet the country lacks expertise especially in the oil sector and that is where foriegn companies have a foothold. The Lundins have the experience and expertise needed. Also the company has very good connections and lines of communication with the State. After all it all comes back to the State.. The partnership with Gunvor is just one expression of this! I think a bit of lateral thinking is needed here by both the market and analystīs of the same... Itīs very simple this is a major deal for Lupe and also for the Russian oil sector.. Gazprom could after all have exercised it's option and taken a majority share and then let different government departments put demands on Lupe that would have made the minority share almost worthless, but they chose not to.. In this I belive there is more to come... 3/9 GMT 12.24 USA - Saudi Arabian Export Saudi Arabia has reduced the price of oil to the US and plans to keep crude allocations unchanged in October. Saudi Light oil will cost $2.90 a barrel, a reduction of $1.80. It also makes it cheaper than US Light crude. The availability of Saudi oil to the US has been unchanged for months but shipments have been smaller, due to weaker demand... 3/9 GMT 10.58 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Lagansky And the good news is that the deal with Gunvor erases the 50% + 1 share option. So Lupe retains the full 70% of Lagansky.. 3/9 GMT 03.41 World Proven Gas & Oil Reserves North America 1984 10.51 Tcm 101.1 bbls South and Latin America 1984 3.23 Tcm 36.3 bbls Europe and Eurasia 1984 42.02 Tcm 96.7 bbls Middle East 1984 27.40 Tcm 430.8 bbls Africa 1984 6.22 Tcm 57.8 bbls Asia Pacific 1984 7.02 Tcm 38.1 bbls World Total 1984 93.89 Tcm 761.6 bbls North America 1994 8.42 Tcm 89.9 bbls South and Latin America 1994 5.83 Tcm 81.5 bbls Europe and Eurasia 1994 63.87 Tcm 80.3 bbls Middle East 1994 45.56 Tcm 661.7 bbls Africa 1994 9.31 Tcm 65.0 bbls Asia Pacific 1994 10.07 Tcm 39.2 bbls World Total 1994 142.89 Tcm 1017.5 bbls North America 2004 7.32 Tcm 61.0 bbls South and Latin America 2004 7.19 Tcm 101.2 bbls Europe and Eurasia 2004 64.02 Tcm 139.2 bbls Middle East 2004 72.83 Tcm 733.9 bbls Africa 2004 14.06 Tcm 112.2 bbls Asia Pacific 2004 14.21 Tcm 41.1 bbls World Total 2004 179.53 Tcm 1188.6 bbls North America 2005 7.46 Tcm 59.5 bbls South and Latin America 2005 7.02 Tcm 103.5 bbls Europe and Eurasia 2005 64.01 Tcm 140.5 bbls Middle East 2005 72.13 Tcm 742.7 bbls Africa 2005 14.39 Tcm 114.3 bbls Asia Pacific 2005 14.84 Tcm 40.2 bbls World Total 2005 179.83 Tcm 1200.7 bbls North America 2006 7.98 Tcm 59.9 bbls South and Latin America 2006 6.88 Tcm 103.5 bbls Europe and Eurasia 2006 64.13 Tcm 144.4 bbls Middle East 2006 73.47 Tcm 742.7 bbls Africa 2006 14.18 Tcm 117.2 bbls Asia Pacific 2006 14.82 Tcm 40.5 bbls World Total 2006 181.46 Tcm 1371.7 bbls North America 2007 8.88 Tcm 71.3 bbls South and Latin America 2007 7.27 Tcm 123.2 bbls Europe and Eurasia 2007 57.39 Tcm 142.2 bbls Middle East 2007 74.17 Tcm 754.1 bbls Africa 2007 14.54 Tcm 123.5 bbls Asia Pacific 2007 14.80 Tcm 41.3 bbls World Total 2007 177.05 Tcm 1411.7 bbls North America 2008 8.87 Tcm 70.9 bbls South and Latin America 2008 7.31 Tcm 103.5 bbls Europe and Eurasia 2008 62.89 Tcm 144.4 bbls Middle East 2008 75.91 Tcm 742.7 bbls Africa 2008 14.65 Tcm 122.0 bbls Asia Pacific 2008 15.39 Tcm 42.0 bbls World Total 2008 185.02 Tcm 1408.7 bbls 2/9 GMT 12.14 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Lagansky I wrote, "Again here we Go - Many good things on the horizon..." Smart deal! Very smart deal to share (30%) the block with Gunvor Cyprus Holding Ltd, a company founded by itīs Swedish chairman Torbjörn Törnqvist.. With connections to the very top of Political Russia... Very smart deal! 2/9 GMT 02.23 Oil - The Contracts - WTI It ainīt Rocket Science... 2/9 GMT 02.02 Australia - The Manly Sea Eagles vs Titans 5/9 19.30 AEST Brookvale Oval, be there! 1/9 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 3.2 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 2.8 mmbls) Distillates (API + 0.9 mmbls) Again itīs down to the Import stats.. If the DOE is in tune with the API numbers then we have a short term upturn, yet I suspect it is going to be a Import - Refinery run scenario, with actual Demand thrown in for real effect. Interesting trading! 1/9 GMT 14.58 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM A Buy rating is called for.. And thus given! 1/9 GMT 03.43 OPEC The agreed cut in the quota for the OPEC group was - 4.2 mmbopd. However the current production levels are way above that level, way above. How far above is not hard to tell buy perusing the numbers and in this I belive it is closer to - 2.0 mmbopd... Probably a bit more. And it is not due to Saudi Arabian cheating... 31/8 GMT 22.34 USA - VIX Index I have warned about this for more than some time, "The Correction is coming ever closer, and it will be deep and fast.. -20% to -30% on the S&P.. Or "Lalaland" could continue for months, but sooner or later you always have to pay for the dance!" There are more signs than just the VIX that the US market is set to turn down and they are across the board commodities, bonds, investor confidence etc. Copper falls due to China, Oil retreats as soon as the stock market dips.. There are too many signs to ignore, add to this that September ainīt a fun month to be invested in.. Just look at the stats on monthly returns in September! 27/8 GMT 20.03 Iraq - Oil Export In July Iraq exported 2.1 mmbopd, up 0.1 mmbopd from June.. 27/8 GMT 03.29 Oil - Iran - Khuzestan I wrote on 26/4 about a major oil field find in the Khuzestan province and it does seem as if the Iranians have hit Black Gold again with a potential 8.8 billion barrel find in the Soussangerd oilfield. The largest Iranian discovery in 5 years... So 4.5 billion barrels in Band-e-Karkheh in April and a further 8.8 billion barrels in Soussangerd... 26/8 GMT 22.40 Oil - The Contracts - WTI The inability of the contract to go past the very important resistance level of $75 and thereby crossing the 200 MA does give it credence to make way for a minor correction with $60 as a very strong support level.. Other minors on the way down ofcourse... Then there are the Fundamentals!! 26/8 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 0.2 mmbls (API + 4.3 mmbls) Gasoline - 1.7 mmbls (API - 1.8 mmbls) Distillates + 0.8 mmbls (API - 0.15 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories - 3.1 mmbls Total Petroleum Demand - 0.9% yoy Total Petroleum Inventories + 10.7% yoy Daily Crude Import has over the last four weeks been 1.2 mmbopd lower than the same period last year.. Distillate stocks are above the average range and demand is 7.9% lower than last year, this at a time when Distillate stocks and demand are more going to run the Contracts for Crude as the US moves into winter. Lower than usual Imports and still rising Crude stocks make for tricky trading in the contracts... 26/8 GMT 01.29 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX Again here we Go - Many good things on the horizon... 25/8 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 4.3 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 1.8 mmbls) Distillates (API - 0.15 mmbls) The API reports "normal" Imports so last weekīs drop was a short term affair... 25/8 GMT 02.01 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - A Comment The major shareholders ownership of the company has dropped from 48% to 33% in a "fairly short time". The Q2 report did not change any of my earlier views, Quite the opposite it only strengthened them... A New Rights Issue is in the making!! Updates to the Site - Travel & Cricket Not so many updates to the the site due to The Ashes, which England unfortunatly won. Congratulations! The Oval a great venue!! 18/8 GMT 01.47 USA - VIX Index The Correction is coming ever closer, and it will be deep and fast.. -20% to -30% on the S&P.. Or "Lalaland" could continue for months, but sooner or later you always have to pay for the dance! 17/8 GMT 15.21 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM I did write on the 2/7.. "Interesting things afoot with Atlas Copco... They are way interested!" Atlas Copco Secoroc AB via the new entity SPC Technology AB a partnership between New Street Capital LLP and Guideline Technology is to further evaluate GODTīs technology... 17/8 GMT 01.10 USA - Oil - The Hurricane Season Not much happening as yet on the Hurricane front. The Eastern Pacific El Nino effect is the cause, yet late August to October is the heavy part of the season. 16/8 GMT 22.20 USA - Gasoline Demand - The Department of Transportation The Federal Highway Administration has since 2002 put out monthly reports on the Traffic Volume Trends ie miles driven etc. Yet this year the information suddenly stopped being released in May. As a gauge of Gasoline Demand in the US the FHAīs report has been one part of the puzzle, yet now not so much...! Could the fact that US Gasoline Demand for the first six months of 2009 was at its lowest level for the period since 2003 have anything to do with it...? Ofcourse not.... However I see Gasoline Futures heading South going forward and from todayīs $2 level we could well see $1.50 by years end as the "driving season" is over and Consumer Confidence is less than great.. Ofcourse a lower price for Gasoline at the pump can increase demand yet the interesting thing to know is if this translates into more miles driven or just a consumer being able to actually "fill" the tank in the SUV or Truck.. 16/8 GMT 16.55 Oil Storage - VLCC Tankers Taking into consideration the chartering of VLCCīs and other vessels there are about 80 mmbls and 120 mmbls of Crude currently being stored at sea... In this I belive we are in the high end of the range. The main geographical areas for this storage are in the US Gulf and Europe.. Add then to this the onshore terminal storage.. The reason - Weak Demand. 13/8 GMT 01.52 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Azurite The one thing that I got wrong in this, and this then on information given is that the FDPSO came on-line faster than at first thought.. The technical difficulties that made the start late were initially thought to be far more serious - yet there you are. Still this project is filled with technical issues that have to be solved, sooner or later.... My opinion and assessments of the company as a whole have not changed. And as I wrote, "Azurite if and when it gets going is just a reprive. Itīs all about Net Profit!" 13/8 GMT 01.43 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX I wrote, "The trend is, and has been for some time up".. I know I am cryptic in some of my posts and not so much in others but this company given that it is in the Heavy Oil sector is debt-free and is cutting itīs Credit Limits... What more do you want? The people who run this project are the same that made a lot of investors Millions - in TYK. 12/8 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API - Updated Crude + 2.5 (API - 1.4 mmbls) Gasoline - 1.0 (API - 2.3 mmbls) Distillates + 0.8 (API + 1.6 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories are still about 13% above last year.. Total Petroleum Demand is still about - 3.0% below last year.. 11/8 GMT 00.43 Heritage Oil - HOIL:LSE - HOC:TSX - Iraq Keep more than one eye on this one going forward.. Thought that "that" which is going to happen would have done so already, but some things take time.. 11/8 GMT 00.30 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX The trend is, and has been for some time up.. 6/8 GMT 04.02 China - Power Output Power output in China grew by 4.21% yoy in July to 348.49 billion kilowatt hours.. Yet only by 0.7% from June of this year. There was however a 10.3% decline in power output in Shanghai and a 6.2% decrease in Jiangsu in the final days of July.... As industrial activity accounts for more than 70% of China’s power consumption, consequently power output is viewed as a key economic indicator... 4/8 GMT 00.46 OPEC OPECīs production quota was set in November 2008 at 24.85 mmbopd. The current OPEC production comes in at 28.39 mmbopd, this then despite low demand and a HUGE storage of Crude in pretty much every bucket that is available, and VLCCīs and terminals etc.. At the same time Iraq is producing about 2.7 mmbopd and exporting over 2.0 mmbopd for the first time since the war and looks set to be able to increase this in the short term. "The OPEC quota does not include Iraq..." Iraq the "Dark Horse" in this.. 31/7 GMT 02.06 Saudi Arabia - Production Capacity As I wrote about in June Saudi Arabia now has a production capacity of 12.5 mmbopd, and if you add the production from the border region Neutral Zone with Kuwait the kingdom will soon be able to produce 13 mmbopd. Lotīs of spare production capacity in respect to the current OPEC quota, about 5 mmbopd to be precise.. 30/7 GMT 02.21 Oil - The Contracts - WTI I wrote earlier on the 8/7, "Itīs all about the Fundamentals and anyone who tells you different does simply not know what they are talking about.. OK itīs also about the Technicals but 99% about the Fundamentals. The world is simply not buying the Oil that can support a price above $50 at the moment and with the driving season coming to a close in the US and Distillates Inventories the way they are we are going South on the contracts." That yesterdays build in US inventory numbers "surprised" the market is just silly, what it did was to give the market a reason to sell off the "fat" built into the contracts. We are moving into a period of ambivilance but the writing is on the wall, the contracts are going to correct downward.. Ofcourse somewhat dependent on the Dollar moves but the Fundamentals just arenīt there for higher oil prices. 28/7 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API - Updated Crude + 5.1 (API + 4.1 mmbls) Gasoline - 2.3 (API - 0.05 mmbls) Distillates + 2.1 (API + 0.1 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.5 Refiners 84.6% Imports of 10.0 mmbopd for Crude and 1.0 mmbopd for Gasoline with Refiners pulling back further. Lotīs of Oil in the market and still weak Demand. Crude oil stocks are 10% above last years levels... Not news for a reader of this site.. Distillate Demand is the one to watch going into the winter season. And with storage flowing over it is going to take a long hard winter to put a dent in the inventory numbers. Big problems for the refiners ahead... 29/7 GMT 00.14 Oil - The Contracts - CFTC - Oil Speculation As expected there are considerations about the contract trade, The U.S. “must seriously consider” strict position limits on energy markets to curb speculation, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said. “This hearing is an opportunity to determine how speculative position limits could be used to address excessive speculation, not how we can eliminate speculation,” Gensler said today, opening the first of three days of meetings the agency is holding on whether to restrict the volume of trading. The fact is that the volume of contracts traded makes it fairly "easy" for one major player like a hedge fund, pension fund etc to "run" the market. Just a new adjustment to a new market, much like "Flash Trading" in Shares.... Trade still goes ON!! The CFTC does have a point.. The oil industry on the other hand sayīs that $149.50 WTI last year was based on Fundamentals... Yeah not so much I think... 28/7 GMT 23.20 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 4.1 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 0.05 mmbls) Distillates (API + 0.1 mmbls) 27/7 GMT 01.02 USA - VIX Index 26/7 GMT 14.05 USA - VIX Index I wrote earlier, "The Index is trailing at 25 while the futures are at between 27.5 and 29... Just a reminder that prior to the Lehman Bros collapse the Index did trade at 25. For those who do not know the lower the VIX Index the lower the fear in the marketplace as far as Puts and Calls are concerned for Options and a few other bits.... Yet from extreme lows or highs the X-Factor does occur! And amongst the smart money the feeling of "X" is growing.." 25/7 GMT 00.47 Australia - Football - The Manly Sea Eagles Great game and great win against the Newcastle Knights.. Fifth place in the standings! 24/7 GMT 03.30 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - The End Game? - Corrected Things are really going from Bad to Worse for this oiler. Gita was as I have written before "Dry", plugged and abandoned. In this even if my information was totally wrong, which it wasnīt BTW, it would take years to develop the "dry" find. And the project cost would be monumental. Aseng in Equatorial Guinea with Pares 6.25% share is going to cost the company about 650 million SEK just to play and thats before the running costs kick in like the rent for the FPSO vessel etc. Pares estimated share of the production is about 5 to 7 mmmbls, total. Do the maths not much net profit here. And production is 2 to 3 years away! The Correction.. I wrote "Congo" instead of Equatorial Guinea... Azurite the great Production Hope for the company is not going to start this year. And again this project has huge costs.. So itīs back to Didon which is declining in production by about 500 bopd every quarter. 8.200 bopd last quarter.. With as I wrote before, the company has a Debt to Asset structure that is beyond belife and is in serious need of Cash yet Ulrik Jansson in the above statement tells all and sundry that the company could produce 20.000 bopd but does not want to do so.... *G* Letīs not even talk about the fact that the banks forced Pare to sell the Norweigan assets to cover outstanding loans... It is going to cost Pare about 2 Billion SEK over the next few years just to get a seat at the table.. Azurite if and when it gets going is just a reprive. Itīs all about Net Profit! Where "Did" all those previous profits go? Look for many more Rights Issues... Fleece the Sheep! This site has never, would never and will never own a single share in this company - A Greywolf note 22/7 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 1.8 (API + 3.1 mmbls) Gasoline + 0.8 (API + 1.3 mmbls) Distillates + 1.2 (API + 1.5 mmbls) Refiners 85.8% - 2.0% Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.9 22/7 GMT 00.32 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 3.1 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 1.3 mmbls) Distillates (API + 1.5 mmbls) Again itīs all about Demand and US Total Petroleum Demand is at the 1990 level... Look for the contracts to drop if the DOE report follows the pattern. Prime Time for Gasoline Demand is fast coming to an end. 21/7 GMT 12.24 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway The NPSA has given the green light for production to start at Volund in August.. Volund is expected to have an output of between 20.000 to 40.000 bopd.. Lupe holds a 35% share.. See I told you there would be more... *G* 21/7 GMT 07.32 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX Well it did not take more than a few hours for a whole plethora of good news to hit the airwaves.. More to come.. 21/7 GMT 02.58 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX You know when things go Real Quiet around a company, especially in the Lundin Sphere.... Just a casual reflection. *G* 18/7 GMT 02.02 Iraq - Heritage Oil, Addax Petroleum, DNO - A Slight Problem.. Due to political posturing by the Iraqi Government DNO has not as yet received any payment for oil produced. This one is worth watching! 17/7 GMT 03.41 China - Power Output China's power generation in June increased 5.2% from a year earlier. Expected increase was 2.3%. This was the first increase since October 2008. Weather factors could be a major part of the increase, yet also increased economic activity. 15/7 GMT 15.32 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API - Updated Crude - 2.8 mmbls (API - 1.2 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.5 mmbls (API - 0.07 mmbls) Distillates + 0.6 mmbls (API + 0.6 mmbls) 14/7 GMT 17.28 Iraq - Oil Production Increase An ambitious plan has been drawn up to raise Iraq's oil production to 6.0 mmbopd by a deadline of 2017, according to Iraqi Premier Nouri al-Maliki. Iraq needs European capital and experts for the rebuilding process the Premier went on to say at the Eastern European Gas conference in Ankara. 9/7 GMT 03.38 Oil - The Contracts - CFTC - Oil Speculation With the CFTC in the US considering measures to stop speculation in the Contracts you have to think awhile and even as a Free Market Capitalist I do have to agree that there is some measure of truth to the thought that speculation drives the oil price.. You think? Ofcourse there is! Yet before the Peak Oil CRAZIES and the Man Made Global Climate Change MORONS the speculation in the oil contracts were within the limits of what could be risk/reward investing. Does the CFTC have a point? Yes, especially as Oil has become even more political, if possible and $147.50 Crude a la 2008 was just madness. An interesting debate ahead I suspect... 8/7 GMT 22.54 Oil - The Contracts - WTI Itīs all about the Fundamentals and anyone who tells you different does simply not know what they are talking about.. OK itīs also about the Technicals but 99% about the Fundamentals. The world is simply not buying the Oil that can support a price above $50 at the moment and with the driving season coming to a close in the US and Distillates Inventories the way they are we are going South on the contracts. Would it not be nice if the EU could post supply/demand stats...!? Never going to happen... Note the cross-over of 50 MA and 200 MA... 8/7 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 2.9 (API - 1.4 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.9 (API + 0.8 mmbls) Distillates + 3.7 (API + 3.4 mmbls) Refiners 83.6% Total Petroleum Inventories + 13.7 mmbls Total Oil Demand 18.4 mmbopd - 6.0% yoy Demand, demand, demand I have been saying this for more than a year. Itīs the Demand Stupid! And with the Obama administration talking a "second stimulus package" and Global Demand for Oil falling itīs again all about Demand!! 8/7 GMT 00.32 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 1.4 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 0.8 mmbls) Distillates (API + 3.4 mmbls) 2/7 GMT 22.11 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM Interesting things afoot with Atlas Copco... They are way interested! 2/7 GMT 21.57 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Q2 Report I had actually missed this latest "Ponzi Gem" from Ulrik Jansson... "12.000 fat per dag är en vald nivå för att optimera värdet av intjäningen från fältet över tiden. Bolaget skulle kunna producera 20.000 fat om dagen idag om de ville men det skulle leda till en snabbare produktionsnedgång på sikt. "Nu går vi i den takten som vi är väldigt nöjda med. Det är en avvägning mellan produktion idag och produktion om 4-5 år. Vi kan producera 20.000 fat om vi vill, men det vill vi inte. Vi vill ha en produktion som ger oss en lång och stadig produktion under fältets livstid", säger Ulrik Jansson." The company has a Debt to Asset structure that is beyond belife and is in serious need of Cash yet Ulrik Jansson in the above statement tells all and sundry that the company could produce 20.000 bopd but does not want to do so.... *G* So it is producing only 11.000 bopd. This despite the fact that it could only "own up" to producing 8.200 bopd in Q2. 1/7 GMT 22.37 China - Power Output I wrote earlier, "China's power output, a key barometer of industrial activity fell -1.3% yoy in March and fell a further -3.55% in April. For May the fall came in at -3.54%." It now looks like the first 5 months drop will come in at - 4.0% yoy. Yet June Output is expected to grow by 2.3%.. Watch this space... 1/7 GMT 21.51 USA - VIX Index The Index is trailing at 25 while the futures are at between 27.5 and 29... Just a reminder that prior to the Lehman Bros collapse the Index did trade at 25. For those who do not know the lower the VIX Index the lower the fear in the marketplace as far as Puts and Calls are concerned for Options and a few other bits.... Yet from extreme lows or highs the - X-Factor does occur! And amongst the smart money the feeling of "X" is growing.. With the US market on holiday Friday things get real interesting... There are also ofcourse the Fundamentals.... 1/7 GMT 17.15 OPEC "Oil markets oversupplied, demand weak, says Kuwait.. Kuwait's oil minister said on Wednesday that oil markets are oversupplied and demand is weak, and he expressed doubt that OPEC would raise output in the near future. He also said Kuwait would like to see closer compliance from OPEC producers with agreed output cuts." Yeah good luck with that one! With oil prices in the late $60īs to early $70īs anyone producing oil today is going to produce as much as they can, with the exceptions of the leading OPEC members... There are no Fundamentals for this oil price, but commodities are the darlings of the speculators so - letīs make some money. The fundamentals again just arenīt there for this level, but what the hey! 1/7 GMT 17.01 Oil USA - Crude Demand There are three main holidays in the US when Demand for Gasoline is of foremost interest. Memorial Day in May, Columbus Day ie 4th of July and Labour Day in September and in 2009 it is the 7th of September. Labour Day is really past the "Driving Season". In this stats from the FHWA are worth watching even if they are laging indicators as to the milage driven during any month. The Total Petroleum Inventories are 14.0% above last years storage level..... Actual Crude Demand is - 6.0% below last year and this at a time when Gasoline cost about $4 a Gallon.. think on it.. Refiners are running operations about - 5.0% below a normal level for the year. This due to Crack Spreads and Low Demand. Distillate Demand is about - 10.0% below last year at a time when Heating Oil prices were anything but low... The US demand for oil is simply down and it is not due to a lack of Oil in The World as Imports this year are more than 2 mmbopd below last years level and low on a historical front. So again The US is using less Oil and the world is not running out of Oil. Again... 1/7 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 3.7 (API - 6.8 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.3 (API + 0.2 mmbls) Distillates + 2.9 (API + 0.7 mmbls) Refiners 87.0% Total Petroleum Inventories + 4.4 mmbls + 9.0% yoy The total inventory number is really + 13.5% yoy as the SPR stocks of Distillate in the Northeast Heating Oil Reserve are a contenious inventory. 1/7 GMT 00.34 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 6.8 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 0.2 mmbls) Distillates (API + 0.7 mmbls) July 4th weekend coming up... Crucial for the Demand numbers! 30/6 GMT 00.47 Heritage Oil, Addax Petroleum, DNO - Iraq I did write, "15/6 GMT 05.39 Heritage Oil, Addax Petroleum, DNO - Iraq Addax the first one out on the market for a serious bid... You see how it pays to read this site, and remember what was written...." There are more Chinese Oil Companies with Big Bucks than just Sinopec... Heritage is the next bet... 24/6 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 3.8 mmbls (API - 0.07 mmbls) Gasoline + 3.9 mmbls (API + 3.7 mmbls) Distillates + 2.1 mmbls (API + 2.3 mmbls) Refiners were back online with 87% output, hence the draw in Crude storage. Still Demand for all Petroleum Products is 9% below last year... 22/6 GMT 22.56 The Market "Again as I wrote earlier check the VIX Index... The Correction is out there looming." In this closer and closer... 17/6 GMT 07.46 The Market Friday will be interesting with Quadruple Witching in the US... Again as I wrote earlier check the VIX Index... The Correction is out there looming. 17/6 GMT 01.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 3.9 mmbls (API - 1.3 mmbls) Gasoline + 3.4 mmbls (API + 2.1 mmbls) Distillates + 0.3 mmbls (API + 0.9 mmbls) A fairly bearish report as Gasoline stocks were expected to be lower or flat.. Note again that the DOE and API use different criteria as to their reporting. 16/6 GMT 02.58 Central Banks - Australia RBA "The Reserve Bank of Australia saw no `pressing needī to cut interest rates at its recent monthly policy meeting given signs of stabilisation at home and abroad" - According to minutes of its June policy meeting.. Letīs just let this one sit for a month or two... 16/6 GMT 02.55 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - In Lieu of Current Events A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to investors from their own money or money paid by subsequent investors rather than from any actual profit earned. The Ponzi scheme usually offers returns that other investments cannot guarantee in order to entice new investors, in the form of short-term returns that are either abnormally high or unusually consistent. The perpetuation of the returns that a Ponzi scheme advertises and pays requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors in order to keep the scheme going. 15/6 GMT 07.5 Asia - Exports Unless Asian exporters start seeing export gains in the coming months leading up to Xmas etc then we are in for a ride. Unless Wallmart and the rest start ordering more T-shirts, toys, electrical goods etc fairly soon well then the consumer driven Asians are basically screwed. Domestic Asian growth is one thing but that is for the most part paid for by exports and as far as Santa Claus is concerned he should be ordering toys for those who have been nice, yesterday. If you in this look at the Import numbers for the necessary resources well then you may find a clue to as to the relativ numbers... 15/6 GMT 05.42 The Globe - The MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence Which gauges likely consumer confidence over the next six months, fell from 49 points to 24 points, its lowest score in the 17 year history of the survey... The index was at 42.8 this time last year and has an historical average of 56.1 The index is calculated with zero as the most pessimistic, 100 as most optimistic and 50 as neutral. 15/6 GMT 05.41 China Foreign direct investment in May came in at $6.4 billion, - 17.8% year-on-year The number of new approved foreign companies reached 1.649, - 32% year-on-year The worst numbers since 1998. 15/6 GMT 05.39 Heritage Oil, Addax Petroleum, DNO - Iraq Addax the first one out on the market for a serious bid... You see how it pays to read this site, and remember what was written.... 12/6 GMT 11.15 OPEC The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut again its forecast for world oil consumption for 2009, seeing a year-on-year fall of 1.62 mmbopd to 83.8 mmbopd. 12/6 GMT 01.58 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent So here we are again. Speculation devoid of any base in the fundamentals is driving the price of Crude into the $75 range and the only thing that will come out of this is short term gain and a longer term Global Recession. Yet there we are... Perhaps time to make the contracts bound to actual physical delivery of the commodity.. In this it should be stated again that I am a Pure Market Capitalist and I both play the market but also protect it as there is no other alternative in my book. In this the out-of-balance movements during the last few years is a worry and a potential destabiliser to the market place. Just take $147.50 WTI for instance, not so much as a fundamental twig to build on... 12/6 GMT 01.55 Saudi Arabia - The Khurais field The Saudis have begun production from the 1.2 mmbopd Khurais field. This then would bring the total output of The Kingdom to 12.5 mmbopd. Along with the additional crude which is of the quality sought by refiners for its easy conversion into motor fuels the Khurais field will also produce 315 million cubic feet per day of sour gas and 70.000 bopd of natural gas liquids. This then leaves The Kingdom with a spare capacity of about 4.5 mmbopd, taken into to consideration the current OPEC quota. 11/6 GMT 02.38 The Oil Price going Forward - A look Backwards I wrote, 20/6/05 The Oil Price going Forward.. $60 Oil - Big Warning! -"There are no fundamentals for this price level even in "lala land"... I hear voices from the late 90īs... "Donīt worry darling keep the Kristal coming me and the boyīs are big in the Oil Sector!"... Itīs the IT boom all over, yet this is far worse as Oil is a real commodity. You canīt beat the market for sure and contracts up at $60 are a sell or steal yet - who is going to keep buying at these levels? OK so the sky is not falling and the world keeps growing albeit at a smaller pace than expected but hey we still got China and India... Global growth though is again revised down.. But donīt worry "Cause darling were in the Oil Sector!".. Again where are the lines at filling stations and where are the Diesel Trucks stalled by the roadside for lack of fuel? Where is the one single customer on this planet not getting the Hydrocarbon Product of his choice? OK Nigeria is on the map and RDS shut a 67.000 bopd refinery in Texas and donīt forget itīs storm season in the LOOP area of the US, yet this is always the case at this time of year. So the question again is - is global demand as big as the market assumes? With pretty dicey statistics from most of the world it comes down to perception. Whenever economies head into a crisis it is usually on a wave of Perception. Housing, property, banking, IT etc are all sectors that have brought the market grief due to a Lack of Clear Perception.. As stated before - "I am afraid that we are going to find ourselves in Q3/Q4 all dressed up and with nowhere to go"..."- So did I buy the Hype? No! Just peruse the site to find out why.. Did I trade it? Hell yes. But did I buy it? No! The key in all of this is what I wrote, -"Again where are the lines at filling stations and where are the Diesel Trucks stalled by the roadside for lack of fuel? Where is the one single customer on this planet not getting the Hydrocarbon Product of his choice?" So the question again is - is global demand as big as the market assumes? With pretty dicey statistics from most of the world it comes down to perception. Whenever economies head into a crisis it is usually on a wave of Perception. Housing, property, banking, IT etc are all sectors that have brought the market grief due to a Lack of Clear Perception.."- The crisis we now are in did not drop out of the sky it was seen coming long ago at least by this site and it should have happened a lot earlier but far too many had their heads in the sand... History boys and girls! With Oil at $73 and Demand failing, faltering what do you think? 11/6 GMT 02.31 Heritage Oil - HOIL:LSE - HOC:TSX - Iraq The company is expanding nicelly... 11/6 GMT 02.30 Japan - GDP Growth Q1 - 3.8% Q1 - 14.2% yoy 10/6 GMT 22.18 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX 10/6 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 4.4 mmbls (API - 6.0 mmbls) Gasoline - 1.6 mmbls (API + 0.03 mmbls) Distillates - 0.3 mmbls (API + 0.02 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories - 1.7 mmbls + 8.8% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 18.3 mmbopd - 6.9% yoy Low imports and steady refinery numbers call for a bullish report.. Yet itīs all about Demand and we are getting longer in the tooth as for the driving season.. Itīs all about Demand. 5/6 GMT 03.27 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia Do not forget the ongoing negotiations... 3/6 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 2.9 mmbls (API - 0.8 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.2 mmbls (API + 0.1 mmbls) Distillates + 1.6 mmbls (API + 3.4 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 15.1 mmbls + 9.1% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 18.2 mmbopd - 7.7% yoy 3/6 GMT 01.33 Australia - GDP Growth Q1 + 0.4% as opposed to a - 0.6% contraction in Q4 2008.. 3/6 GMT 01.30 China - Power Output China's power output, a key barometer of industrial activity fell -1.3% yoy in March and fell a further -3.55% in April. For May the fall came in at -3.54%. 1/6 GMT 22.22 Oil - OPEC - Production Quota I did write on the 14/5, "The news that OPEC is "boosting" itīs production is one of those ticker happenings that just flow by because all it really means is that the Organisation is owning up to the "cheating" going on." As it turns out OPEC increased oil production by 1.5% in May. The largest increase since 2007. And as per ususal Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar were the only OPEC members to produce less oil than their respective targets during both April and May. Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria etc all produced above the quota due to the higher market price for oil. With Demand still sluggish this could again saturate the market with Oil... 1/6 GMT 04.28 The Market Given consideration to very many factors I feel the Equity Markets have come about as far as they will/would/should etc, this time around. There is a growing sense of lethargy quickly coming over the horizon. Case in point the VIX Index and other sundry Stuff.. 31/5 GMT 17.35 DNO International - DNO:OBX - Iraq - Kurdistan The oil firms developing the Taq Taq oil field in Iraq's northern Kurdish region expect to boost initial production of 40.000 bopd to 60.000 bopd by November. The Taq Taq field, along with Tawke, will officially start pumping crude over the next two days in a major breakthrough in a feud between the Arab Government in Baghdad and Kurds in their semi-autonomous northern enclave over Iraq's oil wealth. Starting Monday 1/6, Taq Taq will be able to produce 40.000 bopd but in October, at the latest November the production will rise to 60.000 bopd. Tawke is set to start pumping 60.000 bopd.. The two fields are expected to reach a total capacity of 250.000 bopd within a year and 1 mmbopd in the coming two to three years. - See also Addax Petroleum - AXC:TO. 30/5 GMT 02.17 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - The Emperor's New Clothes An emperor of a prosperous city who cares more about clothes than military pursuits or entertainment hires two swindlers who promise him the finest suit of clothes from the most beautiful cloth. This cloth, they tell him, is invisible to anyone who was either stupid or unfit for his position. The Emperor cannot see the non-existent cloth, but pretends that he can for fear of appearing stupid; his ministers do the same. When the swindlers report that the suit is finished, they dress him in mime. The Emperor then goes on a procession through the capital showing off his new "clothes". During the course of the procession, a small child cries out, "But he has nothing on!" The crowd realizes the child is telling the truth. The Emperor, however, holds his head high and continues the procession... - Hans Christian Andersen, published 1837. 30/5 GMT 02.06 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX Good volume... With the technical rebound I wrote about earlier this month taken care of there is scope for a new upturn in the short term. 28/5 GMT 16.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 5.4 mmbls (API - 2.8 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.6 mmbls (API - 0.75 mmbls) Distillates + 0.3 mmbls (API + 1.4 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.2 mmbls Total Petroleum Demand 18.3 mmbopd - 7.3% yoy 28/5 GMT 01.42 The First Country Out of Recession It is turning out to be a race between two of my favourite countries - Australia and the US, itīs a family thing! Both of the Worlds most Capitalist Countries are in I would have to say a dead heat, Yet with as it turns out a slight favouritism to Australia. Commodities is the name of the game in this play and when things turn around the OZ economy is the one of comparative stability and this will only build in the face of increased commodity demand... 28/5 GMT 01.21 North Korea - Crossing the Rubicon If the World does not make a stand against the 23 million lost souls of the DPRK and itīs 4― foot unstable leader well then the Rubicon is traversed and history will say - You had your chance. Given the caliber of the political leaders of today I hold very little confidence in that this will be resolved in a way that history can note as a - They Ceased the Moment! 21/5 GMT 04.51 China - Economy - GDP Growth Q1 saw GDP growth of 6.1%.. And it now looks like Q2 will be worse, in this 5% GDP growth is a "Recession" number as far as the country is concerned. May is turning out to be a tough month and far too many have been far too positive about Chinas ability to stem the tide of global economic weakness. As I have pointed to before... 20/5 GMT 01.54 Evolution - The Missing Link Meet the ancestor! A 47 million year old human link revealed, David Attenborough, the renowned British naturalist and broadcaster, said the "little creature is going to show us our connection with all the rest of the mammals". "The link they would have said until now is missing... it is no longer missing," he said. Ida gives a glimpse into a time when the world was just taking its present shape. Dinosaurs were extinct, the Himalayas were forming and a huge range of mammals thrived in vast jungles. According to the international team, Ida had suffered a badly broken wrist and this might have been her undoing. The theory is that while drinking from the Messel lake she was overcome by Carbon Dioxide (CO2) fumes and fell in. "Ida slipped into unconsciousness, was washed into the lake, and sank to the bottom, where the unique conditions preserved her for 47 million years," a statement said. 20/5 GMT 01.52 Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria Again a worthy repost... Especially as the Al Gore "indoctrinated", ie the "patients" are running the asylum.. In this it is interesting to note that the EU elections are all about Climate Change.. An electorate well indoctrinated can be lead to any point of the political compass and where better than Climate Change as it gives Politicians the chance to promise All and have to be responsible for Nothing... Especially as most Climate Change Science is Politically Motivated ie read IPCCīs made to order Crap! "Mars is being hit by rapid climate change and it is happening so fast that the red planet could lose its southern ice cap. Scientists from Nasa say that Mars has warmed by about 0.5C since the 1970s. This is similar to the warming experienced on Earth over approximately the same period. Since there is no known life on Mars it suggests rapid changes in planetary climates could be a natural phenomena."..... 19/5 GMT 23.59 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API The API report, Crude (API - 4.5 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 5.4 mmbls) Distillates (API + 1.4 mmbls) Letīs call it a Fairly Bullish Report, yet with the caveat about Demand, Crack Spreads and Refinery Fires... 19/5 GMT 23.56 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia This will be a very good deal for Lupe and also the new Russian partner, far better than the one with Gazprom. Who said you canīt do business in the Russian Oil Sector..? The Lundins long term strategy will again reap benefits for the company and its shareholders.. 18/5 GMT 21.26 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Updated "There are more things afoot in the Lundin Group"... This one will make your head spin... Luk... 15/5 GMT 11.02 EU - GDP Growth I did say, "EU GDP numbers ainīt going to be pretty!"... And they were not. EU GDP Growth Q1 compared to Q4 2008 - 2.5% EU GDP Growth Q1 compared to Q1 2008 - 4.6% EUīs largest economy Germany showed the 4th Quarter of negative growth, Germany GDP Growth compared to Q4 2008 - 3.8% Germany GDP Growth compared to Q1 2008 - 6.9% 14/5 GMT 04.04 Oil - OPEC - Production Quota The news that OPEC is "boosting" itīs production is one of those ticker happenings that just flow by because all it really means is that the Organisation is owning up to the "cheating" going on. Also with the Oil Price rising due to the Dollar Effect they will take advantage of the situation. Especially as we are heading into to Northern Hemisphere, "driving season" and all that is expected from it. Most Americans will be driving more because the price of Gasoline is lower than last year, but they will be driving to the unemployment office and not on go anywhere "road trips". As for Europe I guess most will take the buss... EU GDP numbers ainīt going to be pretty! Towards the end of Q2 and into Q3 the real numbers on the "driving season" start to turn up and after 4th of July in the US, well the economy still is not going to be much better... 13/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API The name of the Game is Demand... Total petroleum demand over the past four weeks averaged 18.2 mmbopd, down by -8% from a year ago. Gasoline demand fell -1.2% from a year ago, Distillate fuel, which include diesel and heating oil, dropped -14.1%, while Jet fuel consumption declined -10.3%. The stats showed a build in Crude which is due in part to the fact that storage levels of Crude in the US are nearing full capacity, also storing $60 oil is just bad business as the price drops going forward. Especially as the demand for products is waining. The US is using less Oil is Again the simple salient Fact... 13/5 GMT 01.13 China - Crude Demand - Updated Chinaīs demand for Oil in Q1 2009 was -6% below Q1 2008. The decline contrasts with an increase of more than 8% in Oil demand for Q1 2008 versus Q1 2007. 2004 6.6 mmbopd 2005 6.4 mmbopd 2006 6.9 mmbopd 2007 7.5 mmbopd 2008 7.9 mmbopd 2009 7.4 mmbopd Q1 (actual) On Tuesday the oil contracts rose because China imported 14% more oil in April, this was then equated with Demand. Two different things, imports and demand have very little correlation in this. The number to watch is China's power output, a key barometer of industrial activity, and it fell -1.3% year-on-year in March and is likely to have dropped more than -4% in April... Note that Chinas export fell -23.7% in April and imports were down by -13%... 12/5 GMT 01.38 The Market - Equities As a study of history shows "nothing is new under the sun".. Despite the late race across the equity world the facts are as I have pointed to before out there. No growth across the planet.... Sell the rallies, the few that are left this time around. 11/5 GMT 23.56 Iraq - Kurdistan - Oil Exports Well as I thought letīs not get too comfortable with the news about future Oil Exports from the Kursdistan Region... Iraq's oil ministry considers the contracts signed by Kurdish Regional Government with the international oil companies illegitimate and illegal, Hussain al-Shahrastani said on Tuesday in an interview with the state-run television of Iraqia. But Shahristani said that oil extracted by these companies will be collected and marketed by his ministry and all revenues will be sent into the federal accounts. Kurdistan Regional Government and the Ministry of Oil in Baghdad do how differing views on the longivity of the export period and I belive there will be more "snags" going forward.. All the more reason to belive that there are larger players waiting to get a hold of those who have been fortunate to make large finds.. 10/5 GMT 19.45 Heritage Oil - HOIL:LSE - HOC:TSX - Iraq Not to be premature but it now seems that The Kurdish region of Iraq will be able to export oil... There have been rumours flying around about this for a long while, long.. Yet if the latest "small note from the Iraqi Oil Ministry" is to be believed DNO and Addax both old friends of the readers of this site will be able to export oil from the Taq Taq and Tawke fieldīs. Yet with knowledge of the very complicated decision structures in Iraq, lets put this one in the "best news yet" column. Both DNO and Addax should see a healthy trade on the news... And Heritage.. 8/5 GMT 03.42 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent No denying there are signals in the market that things have changed not necessarily for the better but there are signs, or are there? The price of Crude has jumped by 25% of late while major Indexes have done less than half that. The Wiltshire 5000 Index for instance is fairly flat in the same time frame. A lower Dollar helps things move along but still the inventory levels are at 1990īs levels... Why? Well mostly because Supply is running way over Demand as it has done for many years! This then despite the Moronic $147 WTI level of last year.. The World is Still not Running out of Oil!! I would view the early signs with much sceptisism and trade accordingly... 7/5 GMT 23.29 Heritage Oil - HOIL:LSE - HOC:TSX - Iraq I first wrote about this company in July of 2006 and despite the upturn in the stock of late this one can and will go far. As long as the politics of the Kurdish Region does not get in the way, whis is a risk. But one more than well worth taking... I do in this see a suitor coming along in the not too distant future.. 6/5 GMT 19.36 Heritage Oil - HOIL:LSE - HOC:TSX - Iraq The Canadian oil company has struck a giant oilfield in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq that may contain up to 3 billion barrels of recoverable crude. Heritage estimated that the Miran West structure contained between 2.3 billion and 4.2 billion barrels of oil in the ground, of which between 50% to 70% may be recoverable. The oil is medium-heavy crude with a low sulphur content. The company has 255.107.482 outstanding shares, fully diluted. Look for say the Chinese to have a good hard look at this company as it is too small to run this field on itīs own... 1/5 GMT 02.32 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX Technical rebound in the offering... 1/5 GMT 00.03 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - New Blocks Barent Sea 533 7219/12, 7220/10 - 20% Norwegian Sea 519 6201/11, 6201/128 - 40% (operator) 28/4 GMT 23.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API The API report, Crude (API + 4.6 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 2.6 mmbls) Distillates (API + 2.6 mmbls) I would say this report is bearish on balance... Until the DOE numbers come out. 28/4 GMT 15.56 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Block 5B The company is considering itīs options in regards to Block 5B due to the poor results from the test-drills. I long held the belife that this block should have been sold earlier. It is time to move on... 28/4 GMT 03.04 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX Nice run... Increased production.. OK so the PP diluted the stock to 231.341.305 shares. Yet the uptick is impressive. A bit thin on the volume though... 28/4 GMT 01.51 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX "The former chairman of the Board Jan Kvarnström and the Director Ulrik Jansson have both announced that they do not stand for re-election." You must know where this train wreck is heading... 28/4 GMT 01.21 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent The contracts fall due to an outbreak of Swine Flu? What ever happened to Demand larger than Supply and lets not forget the real "crazies" the Peak Oil Sect? Sarcasm!? By the way Peak Oil is now supposed to have happened in August of 2008.. And I thought it was in September of 2005... Delays ainīt that the way of the World today... *G* Before everyone getīs their knickers in a twist I am more than well aware of what drives the Oil Price at the moment, read US dollar etc yet I just ponder the weight given to analysts sometimes, as you do from time to time... 27/4 GMT 03.34 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - ONGC Videsh Ltd The Congress-led UPA government has written off ONGC’s $89m investment in 5B. In this ONGC has/had a 23.5% stake in the project. 27/4 GMT 03.02 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent - A Reminder Still there are investors and analysts out there in the market that can not understand the simple fact that equity markets are the drivers of the commodities and in this of the greatest importance - Oil! Look at the demand numbers, look at the projected demand numbers albeit a shaky ground to base your analysis on as stated before... Itīs human nature to be hopefull and look forward but you also have to look at the fundamentals and in this the current equity market is not much to build a sustainable future on. 26/4 GMT 22.44 Oil - Iran - Band-e-Karkheh Iran has discovered a new oil layer and a gas field in the southwest and central parts of the country. The new oil layer forms part of the Band-e-Karkheh oil field northwest of Ahvaz, capital of Iran's oil-rich southwestern province of Khuzestan. The oil field's estimated reserves have increased to 4.5 billion barrels with the discovery of the new layer. Also a new gas field with an estimated reserve of some 169.8 billion cubic meters was also discovered in the central province of Fars.. 25/4 AEST 00.01 Australia - Anzac Day Lest We Forget.. 24/4 GMT 01.47 Oil - OPEC - Saudi Arabia The Saudiīs are currently producing around 7.8 mmbopd, with about 2.5 mmbopd in spare capacity.. The Saudi oil exports to the US are at a 13 year low.. At the same time US storage of Crude is at a 19 year high. 24/4 GMT 01.13 Australia - Football - The Manly Sea Eagles Sat 25 Apr 7.30 PM AEST Dairy Farmers Stadium. I am as sure as hell watching this one.. VS 23/4 GMT 19.57 China - Crude Demand Chinaīs demand for Oil in Q1 2009 was -5% below Q1 2008. The decline contrasts with an increase of more than 8% in Oil demand for Q1 2008 versus Q1 2007. 2004 6.6 mmbopd 2005 6.4 mmbopd 2006 6.9 mmbopd 2007 7.5 mmbopd 2008 7.9 mmbopd 2009 7.5 mmbopd Q1 23/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Natural Gas + 46 Bcf Supplies are 23% higher than the five-year average.. Gas consumption by factories may drop -7.4% this year as the recession cuts demand, yet the problem is that future demand is hard to project. 22/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 3.9 mmbls (API + 1.0 mmbls) Gasoline + 0.8 mmbls (API + 0.1 mmbls) Distillates + 2.7 mmbls (API + 0.5 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 11.3 mmbls 22/4 GMT 02.33 Oil - The Contracts - WTI The stock market or rather the sentiment in the stock market is driving commodities and none more so than Oil. A fragile alliance and a tricky one to trade as both are driven not by fundamentals but rather by far more esoteric factors. 22/4 GMT 01.35 Japan - Exports Japanese exports dropped 16.4% year on year to 71.1 trillion yen in March. 21/4 GMT 04.39 Central Banks - Australia RBA Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA governor Glenn Stevens says the Australian economy is in recession. He says it is very rare for Australia to escape an international downturn and that there is no precedent for avoiding one of the size currently being suffered by virtually all the nation's trading partners, "Whether or not the next GDP statistic, due in early June, shows another decline, I think the reasonable person, looking at all the information available now, would come to the conclusion that the Australian economy, too, is in recession." You Think!?.... This then seen in the perspective of comments made by Mr Kevin Rudd on the 17/9, 2008.. 21/4 GMT 02.08 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Gita "Hydrocarbons ainīt Oil or Gas, they are just that Hydrocarbons". Gita - 1X plugged and abandoned. Dry!

    Exploration and Appraisal Wells

    Licensee /
    Licence
    Name / Number Drilling Rig / Operator Drilling Position Coordinates Block Type / Remark Spudded / Completed
    A.P. Møller Gita-1X Ensco 101 N: 56°15'42'' 5604/22 Exploration 16-12-2008
    9/95 5604/22-5 Mærsk Olie og Gas AS E: 04°17'14''     21-04-2009
    21/4 GMT 01.23 Oil - The Contracts - WTI Expiration for the May contracts on Tuesday made for exciting trade with a huge drop of almost 9% on Monday, I guess nobody wants to take delivery of physical Oil. Wonder why!? Well it could be because demand is still falling and storage is still rising, I know call me crazy but there you are. The new front month contract June09 ended the day at $48.51 down - 7.5%. In this I see a return down towards the low $40īs again as the first step and then, well thatīs the tricky part as the Q1 numbers on a lot of fronts are coming to and end and as I see it Q1 is going to be hard to beat for most if not all sectors for the rest of the year. 19/4 GMT 23.25 The Americas - Oil Hugo Cahvez is one of the most voiciferous critics of the US at the same time Bolivar Venezuela owns 100% of Citgo.. With about 1.500 gas stations across the US and lotīs of nice big terminals and refineries.. Just a reminder that talk is one thing... 19/4 GMT 23.20 Sweden - A Legal System for Hire - Updated What a nasty, grubby little piece of politized jurisprudence the Swedish legal system handed down today in regards to The Pirate Bay convictions. Especially as there is no conclusive empirical evidence that filesharing actually financially hurts the Entertainment Industry. I would like to see the same Industry take on the huge producers of Bootlegged CDīs, DVDīs and Games in China.. By the way if you want to do some filesharing just do a search on Google or Yahoo etc, and you will promptly find all the information on how and where to do it... Check out - One Swarm!! From an Investors Perspective, which after-all this site is about. I would be seriously worried about an Industry like the Enterainment Industry and how out of touch with reality they seem to be. From large companies to individual artists donīt you get it? Change your way of doing business! Well anyway - Back to Oil! 16/4 GMT 03.41 China - Q1 GDP Growth As expected again, GDP Growth is still falling and Q1 saw a growth of 6.1%. This then down from 6.8% in Q4. In comparison to the rest of the World a 5% GDP growth for China is as pointed to before virtually - Recession... 16/4 GMT 02.55 The Economy - USA - EU and the Rest Decoupling was the word at the start of the Economic Downturn ie that the problem of a failing economy was the USAīs problem and that Asia and Europe would not be pulled down by the decline. The proponents of this theory with their last breath said Asia will not be affected.... Well they were all wrong and you are welcome to peruse the site on my thoughts about this "theory".. Anyway. The US by virtue of itīs Economic System is going to come out of this Crisis way ahead of the rest and this is going to create more than a few problems as the EU in particular is way behind on the timeline and Markets are going to have to adjust to the divergens. This divergens or rather imbalance is going to create some difficult problems for investors going forward as the US numbers are not going to be on par with non-US regions. Or I could be very wrong about this and the US will lead the World out of this mess along the same line it lead it into it. One thought, First negative Yearly CPI number in the US since 1955. Look where Japan has been for the last 12 years.. Deflation... Interesting times.... 16/4 GMT 02.36 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Gita Hydrocarbons ainīt Oil or Gas, they are just that Hydrocarbons. An empty Oil Barrel contains Hydrocarbons but the barrel is still Empty. Just a Cautionary Note. 15/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 5.6 mmbls (API + 6.9 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.9 mmbls (API - 0.6 mmbls) Distillates - 1.2 mmbls (API + 0.09 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 8.2 mmbls Crude Import 9.4 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.15 mmbopd Refineries 80.4% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd - 0.4% yoy Distillate Demand 3.9 mmbopd - 6.7% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 6.9% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 18.7 mmbopd - 5.6% yoy 15/4 GMT 11.43 Oil - OPEC - Demand The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for oil demand this year for an eighth successive month as the economic slowdown in the world’s biggest oil consumers worsens. The estimate for 2009 global demand was lowered by 0.43 mmbopd to 84.18 mmbopd, the producer group said. Demand will contract by 1.37 mmbopd this year, or 1.6%. That’s slightly more than North Africa’s biggest oil supplier Algeria produces. OPEC forecast a decline of 1.2% last month. “The world economic recession continues to erode oil demand growth, particularly in the U.S., Japan and China,” the group’s secretariat said in its monthly oil market report today. Demand in industrialized countries will fall this year and developing economies are “likely to see only minor growth.” 14/4 GMT 23.55 Oil - IEA - Demand So the IEA is now forecasting global demand this year at 83.4 mmbopd, which is 2.4 mmbopd below the 2008 level.... This is far from News for the reader of this site and I belive the IEA is again optimistic in itīs forecast. The reason being that the full effect of the economic downturn has yet to be felt, especially in Asian along with the EU region. 7/4 GMT 5.50 Central Banks - Australia RBA The RBA cut the official cash rate to a 49 year low of 3%, down by 0.25%. Look for a further cut of the same dignity at the next meeting.. 7/4 GMT 03.16 Australia - Football - The Manly Sea Eagles Come on Guys are you going to let Russell Crowes limp wristed Bunnies lead the League!? 7/4 GMT 00.17 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - StatoilHydro Embrace the significance of the deal and try see where this is going to go in the Future. The Barents Sea... This is Big Boys Club. 7/4 GMT 00.05 The Market Again donīt be fooled by the last few days upturn in the market as there are No Fundamentals for the optimism. I know I sound like a broken record but there you are. The Q1 Reports are going to flood the airwaves going forward and I do not foresee any outstanding sunshine stories being revealed. 3/4 GMT 06.17 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - StatoilHydro I did say things were afoot for Lundin... Lundin Petroleum will transfer to StatoilHydro a 30% licence interest in Production Licences 359 and 410, and a 10% interest in Production Licence 409 located in the GLA, north of the Sleipner field, Norway. StatoilHydro operates the nearby Sleipner and Grane platforms which are production facilities for oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf. StatoilHydro will pay a disproportionate share of the costs related to the 3D seismic programme to be carried out for PL359 and PL410 along with the one well to be drilled in each of the two licences. For PL409 StatoilHydro will enter at ground terms. Lundin Petroleum will remain operator of all of these Production Licences and will remain the key player in the GLA, along with StatoilHydro. In addition to these farmout arrangements, a rig swap has been agreed where Lundin Petroleum has been given the option to utilize two drill slots on a Barents Sea rig in exchange for two drill slots in the North Sea. Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO of Lundin Petroleum comments: "We are very pleased to be working closely with StatoilHydro in the Greater Luno Area. We believe that following the discovery of the Luno field the area has the potential to be a major new producing area on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. This transaction creates a joint ownership in the most important licences in the Greater Luno Area in order to secure a timely development of the area." 3/4 GMT 03.13 The Market Bear Market Rallies when they fail are very Bloddy Downturns and on the face of it the latest rally was nothing more than a Bear Market Rally induced by the politics of whishfull thinking. I could be very wrong in this but I doubt it! Trade the rally but donīt expect this to be the turn up from the bottom. 3/4 GMT 03.09 G20 - The New World Order So a few Trillion here and a few Trillion there. One Trillion Dollars to the IMF an organisation Barack Obama sayīs needs to be "more effective and productive". Yeah I always like to give a Trillion Dollars to organisations that need to improve their mandate... The Euro-Capitalists/Socialists got their way with more regulation, regulation and regulation. Tax havens are to be put under the microscope so I guess France is going to invade Switzerland.. Of the $5, $6 or was it $8 Trillion most of the package is "political intentions" coupled with the actions already taken. G20 Fluff! 2/4 GMT 04.17 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API The salient point in all of the stats is the fact that despite low refinery output due to work-overs Gasoline storage increased again on Weak Demand! Gasoline is from now on the primary driver of the Crude price as we are heading into the US Driving Season... 1/4 GMT 03.53 The Market As in all severe down-turns in the Market you need a bottom and in 2001-2002 we were close to getting a real capitulation yet it never happened, which is why the reasons behind a 2009-2010 real bloodbath gain momentum. The Market at large has yet to reach levels not thought possible, or can Information save the collective bacon.? This Recession/Depression is the first of itīs kind as it is a 24/7 News affair and the amount of information available to the individual investor has never been greater. Will this save us from the Economic Cycle - I think Not. 1/4 GMT 02.06 Japan - Tankan Report The business sentiment index for large manufacturers was - 58 for Q1, 2009 this then down from - 24. This is on a level in parity to the early 1970īs... The worlds second largest economy is in dire straits and it is time for a great deal of the market to get itīs collective head out of the sand. Mainly because this is not the bottom of the cycle... Far from it! Asia is pretty much all about Exports and those numbers are still heading down... A similar report from China would show pretty much the same confidence level if not worse, happily the Chinese State can put market moving stats like these in the backroom... 31/3 GMT 01.34 Oil - The Contracts - WTI The big Drop! With the economy still getting worse and companies like GM and Chrysler given 60 days to get it together or go into Chapter 11, like they should have done long ago the price of Crude is not going to go up. $40 seems to be a pivot point but we are heading into to Q2 a weak period for oil anyhow so a revisit of the $30īs is not off the cards. 30/3 GMT 08.33 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - PL301 Talisman and Lundin Petroleum go way back in so far as business relationships go and for Lupe to farm into PL301 to the tune of 40% is smart business for both parties. Lupes ongoing operations in PL148 contains oil and the continuation into PL301 is a matter of geological data, experience and again just plain good business. There are more things afoot in the Lundin Group... 30/3 GMT 05.47 The World - G20 Meeting Donīt expect anything more than Fluff from this group.. They will make about as much sense as the Morons demonstrating outside the venue. 30/3 GMT 05.44 The Lundin Group Look for movement in this group in the not too distant future... In this - The Oil Sector. 26/3 GMT 02.55 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Yet again the build in Crude continous. At a 16 year high... As for the products itīs all about margins and Gasoline is not making the refiners any money today hence the low refinery output. US demand for Petroleum is -4% below last year while stocks are at the 1993 level. Easy case to make for the argument that demand is still falling and will continue to do so going into Q2, a period whis is lean at best. 24/3 GMT 23.44 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out at 14.30 The API reported on Tuesday evening, Crude + 4.7 mmbls Gasoline - 0.8 mmbls Distillates - 1.6 mmbls 24/3 GMT 01.01 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent The global demand for Oil has not increased infact it is doing just the opposite and with this in mind the recent rally in oil while welcome tradingwise is precarious. A falling dollar and "hope and please more hope" that the US financial packages are going to work are driving the price. A weak foundation to build a sustained rally on, very weak. I donīt belive the rally to be more than a deep Bear Market rally. The worry is that this leads to speculation gone mad as per 2008 and the oil price just keeps going up and killing every part of the economy. Trade it while it lasts but I see no fundamental reasons for this rally, none at all. 21/3 GMT 03.49 USA - Barack Obama Sorry! But a sitting President of the USA does not do the tonight show circuit. Especially as the same sitting President is still in the - "I am Running for the Presidency" - mode... 20/3 GMT 03.25 Global Economic Downturn - Recession This site touched on this "happening" as early as 2007, given seen mainly through the eyes of Global Oil Demand but this was expanded to cover the whole economy. I am amazed that so few saw this downturn coming and still are having problems understanding the depth of itīs nature... This ainīt over by a long shot. 20/3 GMT 03.17 Bonuses Pretty much every politician who can walk and chew gum at the same time is out on the stump lambasting Bonuses, many as it turns out are paid out by companies very much part of the political system. Executive bonuses are a problem and should be tied to success not just massaging the numbers but I think everyone can agree that they are small potatoes compared to the overall loss suffered by companies that should have been run by people who were supposed to know what the hell they were doing..... 18/3 GMT 02.31 Sweden - Wolf The Swedish Wolf Population has seen an increase according to the latest survey.. Well that is very heartening to read but I know that at least 16 Wolfs have been illegally shot during the past winter with 12 of these in a particular area... The problem of inbreeding and it`s consequences is apparently not solely a Wolf problem...! According to this site anyone caught illegally shoting a Wolf and burying it, as is the practice should him/herself suffer the same fate. Yet with the Caveat - Buried Alive!! 18/3 GMT 02.19 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out at 14.30 Expected is, Crude + 3.0 mmbls Gasoline - 1.0 mmbls Distillates + 0.8 mmbls Refineries 82.2% 18/3 GMT 00.15 Iran - UK I note with amusement that yet another British Prime Minister is hastening down the apeacement road in regards to a Power Grab by saying that it is the right of every nation to have Nuclear Energy... Sounds a lot like "Peace in our time".... OK so there are deeper and darker issues afoot like Afghanistan where the US/UK and rest need assistance and what price to pay for Iranian help but for a little Nuclear Power..? Boyz and Girlz read your history.. 18/3 GMT 00.14 Greywolf Fund I will be posting the stocks included in the "tracking fund" shortly. 16/3 GMT 02.59 Oil - OPEC I wrote earlier, "Well as expected and which is also history when it comes to OPEC the agreed on cuts are not being followed.. Big Surprise! Look for more cheating going forward as the Demand situation deteriorates further." OPECīs hands are tied as if they would cut even if only to bring the over-production into line it would hurt the global economy even more... OPEC like the rest are just going to have to come to terms with the fact that the world is not running out of oil and that demand is going to fall going forward.. Have you heard that from this site before!? Yes you have for over two years and then some! 12/3 GMT 20.26 Lack of Site Updates The site will be up and running as per usual during the weekend. Had a bit of a Holiday... Thanks for checking in! 3/3 GMT 02.50 Central Banks - Australia RBA Leaves the cash rate unchanged for some obscure reason not apparent to anyone outside the cave the RBA lives in... 3/3 GMT 00.26 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent Peruse the numbers as far as demand is concerned, and do it with a serious intent. 2/3 GMT 23.00 The Market - Cash is King! I have been harping on about this kind of market since early last year... The stimulus packages are just window dressing and political fluff paid for by the Tax Payer, screwed again.... Let the Bad Companies fall however large! Socialism does not work!! So am I in this market? No! Cash is King... 25/2 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Very low refinery runs due to seasonal work-overs means a draw on Gasoline stocks, low imports for Crude also seeīs smaller than expected stock builds. This will see a run up in the Crude contracts yet this looks set to be short term. Expiration on Friday for WTI. 24/2 GMT 03.59 The Market Are we finally starting to see the true bloodletting of the market? I belive so as this would mean that the time to sart getting back in is in sight... Not here but in sight.. 24/2 GMT 03.42 China - Crude Demand China 2004 6.6 mmbopd 2005 6.4 mmbopd 2006 6.9 mmbopd 2007 7.5 mmbopd 2008 7.9 mmbopd The preliminary demand numbers for China area as above for 2008. This then 0.1 mmbopd above the sites prognosis. There are some questions as to the correctness of the numbers... 13/2 GMT 01.43 Oil - The Contracts - WTI WTI ends the day at $33.98 down -5.5%, and it now looks like there will be a test of the $30 level, soon. Part due to technicals but mainly due to the fact that the world is awash with oil and ever falling demand. Ofcourse this will correct itself but there are few if any signs out there that this will happen anytime soon. Graph up later. 11/2 GMT 15.28 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - One Quarterly Report closer to Bankruptcy! Ulrik Jansson is Scandinavias best Used Car salesman, and as noted before a very competent accountant... Dwindeling oil reserves, forget the gas numbers as they are just numbers with no consequence. Lower and lower production. Look for "technical difficulties" to halt the start of Azurite. The Debt/Asset ratio is just getting worse... Etc, etc.. The company needs to issue a balance sheet for liquidation purposes, Yesterday. In this I wrote, 27/11 GMT 08.35 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX I have never liked this company or the hype surrounding it. That they now are seeking to fleece share holders out of another 25.000.000 shares is as I see it more of the same... The company has dwindeling resources and few new real plans to actually do something about it. Please read the company reports, I mean really read them with a critical eye! 20/11 GMT 01.25 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - A Warning! The company cuts itīs Capex for 2009 and now it wants more money from the market to finance past sins..? I would not be surprised if this company seeīs bankruptcy within six months.. Where did all of the huge profits go?? This company is a scam.. Look at the debt structure! Stay Away from this Stock!! Please see other earlier postings... 11/2 GMT 04.29 Oil - OPEC Well as expected and which is also history when it comes to OPEC the agreed on cuts are not being followed.. Big Surprise! Look for more cheating going forward as the Demand situation deteriorates further. 11/2 GMT 03.57 The Market There are too many "Suckerīs Rallies" ongoing for this market to be interesting unless you know the stocks you follow very well and are prepared to take the risk. Markets climbing on Tax Payers bailing out "Incompetent Bankers", what is that all about? Especially as the line of bankers asking for handouts is just going to get longer... Case in point - US Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geitner says he will put 14 US banks under pressure, yet all of these banks are too large to fail according to Timothy. So what is he going to do? Take away their parking privileges... Mad House!! An old adage that has served me well is that - When you do not understand the market, Stay Out! In this I wrote, 14/7 GMT 01.29 USA - Fannie Mae - Freddie Mac Free Market Capitalism on Hold! Yet again the Government by way of The Fed ie Taxpayers are set to bail out Incompetent Bankers. The Financial Sector goes through this every 8 to 12 years where Banks and Financial Institutions get themselves into strife. Only to be saved ultimately by The Taxpayer. 6/2 GMT 03.20 Global Depression As I have stated many times before, itīs out there lurking boyz and girlz and anyone in a position of power or influence that has not seen this possibility coming should be sacked for gross incompetence... I sadly know that the list of contestants in that race is long, very long.... 6/2 GMT 03.01 Oil - The Contracts - WTI The head of Kuwait's sovereign wealth fund on Thursday predicted oil prices will slide further in the next six months, posing a big challenge to next year's budget. Sheikh Bader al-Saad, under whose leadership the Kuwait Investment Authority invests the Gulf Arab country's windfall revenues at home and abroad, said the projected average price of WTI $35 per barrel, on which the budget is based, is "reasonable in the light of global economic developments". 5/2 GMT 22.07 Africa Oil Corp - AOI:V An old favorite on this site that has seen better days but now things should get moving. The Lundins have a plan. Now if you could only somehow put Sad and Sorry Sudan into AOI aswell.... Hey thereīs a thought! 4/2 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 7.2 mmbls (API + 8.1 mmbls) Gasoline + 0.3 mmbls (API + 2.5 mmbls) Distillates - 1.4 mmbls (API - 0.2 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.4 mmbls Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd + 0.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.8 mmbopd - 0.4 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd Refineries 83.5% + 1.0% Gasoline Demand 8.8 mmbopd - 0.5% yoy Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd - 3.7% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.4 mmbopd - 13.1% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 19.5 mmbopd - 2.8% yoy SPR build by 0.7 mmbls.. Yet more Crude in the US of A. The Demand numbers are contracting somewhat due to a natural period of lower demand but as the "driving season" starts looming look for demand to fall further. Itīs all about the depth of the soon to be called Global Depression... 2/2 GMT 04.26 Atlas Copco ATCO:SAX As promised this company is on the watch list... 2/2 GMT 02.58 Australia - GDP Growth The Australian economy is expected to shrink by - 0.2% during 2009.. Well are we all finally waking up to the reality of the situation? GDP Growth will probably according to this site come in below - 2% for the year.. Hey we are all Global Now! 2/2 GMT 02.48 Central Banks - Australia RBA Expected is a 1% rate cut, with more to come. 29/1 GMT 21.16 Oil - Super Contango - Continued Shipping investor Nobu Su plans to offer his fleet of 20 supertankers to speculators who want to store oil and bet they can sell it later in the year for a profit. Su’s Taipei-based company, TMT & Co Ltd, will lease out its 2 mmbls vessels at below-market prices in return for a share of any profit his customers make on the trade in oil. His fleet, able to hold enough crude to supply Europe for two days, is available for immediate hire.... The plot thickens... The question is how many are going to risk getting burned a second time in less than a year.? 28/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 6.2 mmbls (API + 0.8 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.1 mmbls (API + 0.95 mmbls) Distillates - 1.0 mmbls (API - 0.35 mmbls) Natural Gas - 186 Bcf Total Petroleum Inventories + 3.6 mmbls Crude Import 9.7 mmbopd - 0.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd + 0.0 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.3 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd Refineries 82.5% - 0.8% Gasoline Demand 8.8 mmbopd - 1.7% yoy Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd - 3.0% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.4 mmbopd - 10.4% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 19.4 mmbopd - 4.0% yoy America's trend of declining driving started its second year with a loss of 12.9 billion vehicle-miles traveled (VMT), or 5.3% less, in November 2008 compared to the same month in 2007. It is the largest such decline of any November since monthly data estimates began in 1971. 28/1 GMT 14.54 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - Luno 2 The company finds more oil and gets an indication of the extension of the Luno field, note here that I include all parts of the Luno structure. Unfortunatlly the market and some analysts expect every drill to be a "gusher", the reality in the oil business is far different and somber. It is positive that the company finds more oil and with three more drills planned for 2009 things will become much clearer. 28/1 GMT 02.29 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - Luno 2 I would put this one in the "Big Happy" department.. 27/1 GMT 23.54 The Church of Peak Oil I note with amusement that one of the Bishops of the Church has come to the surface with yet another prophecy... Kjell Aleklett is a sad figure of a man who now belives that Peak Oil production occured in July of 2008.. And I thought the doctine of the Church said 2005?? Oh well some revision is accepted in the faith I guess.. Apparently the world is never again going to see demand that merits an oil price of $150 or above. This then the new revelation from Kjell.. The fact that world oil demand had very little if anything to do with the $147 level attained in 2008 driven by speculation escapes Kjell. But to be politically correct Aleklett ofcourse points to electric cars as the saviours own chariots.. Not a word about ethanol, by the way.... *G* An interesting fact is that US crude oil proved reserves actually rose by 345 mmbls 2% in 2007... 27/1 GMT 22.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API The API stats are as follow, Crude na (API + 0.8 mmbls) Gasoline na (API + 0.95 mmbls) Distillates na (API - 0.35 mmbls) 26/1 GMT 20.54 Oil - OPEC It does seem that OPEC is living up to the quotas set for Q1, yet the longer the oil price stays low the harder it is going to be for the members to comply with the cuts. The fact is that there is some "cheating" going on even today. 26/1 GMT 20.43 Oil - Super Contango Contango is the norm for the market where the cost of storage is priced into the future price. But we are in a phase of Super Contango where oil producers and the futures market are betting on a greater than normal upturn in the oil price going forward. Every producer, refinery, storage company etc are storing "cheap" front month Crude with the view to sell it at a higher price months down the line. Yet with dark prospects for the global economy becoming apparent for even the slowest minds the gamble could backfire... 22/1 GMT 16.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 6.1 mmbls (API + 9.8 mmbls) Gasoline + 6.5 mmbls (API - 0.03 mmbls) Distillates + 0.8 mmbls (API + 0.07 mmbls) Natural Gas - 176 Bcf Total Petroleum Inventories + 11.8 mmbls Crude Import 9.9 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd + 0.4 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.4 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd Refineries 83.3% - 1.9% Gasoline Demand 8.9 mmbopd - 1.6% yoy Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd - 2.6% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.4 mmbopd - 13.8% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 19.4 mmbopd - 4.7% yoy The lower refinery numbers give the larger than expected build in Crude but also for Gasoline the Import increase is a factor. Build at Cushing and injection into the SPRīs. With Total Petroleum demand down by almost 5% itīs all about Demand. Simple as that! 22/1 GMT 10.45 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out at GMT 16.00 Again I expect, a further build across the board.. Crude + 2.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 2.2 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas - 149 Bcf With demand falling and lotīs of "cheap" barrels of oil being stored for better "price" times the pressure on the contracts minus the US$ effect continous. 22/1 GMT 05.25 China - Q4 GDP Growth As expected GDP Growth is falling and Q4 saw a growth of 6.8%. If the Communist States numbers are to be belived and again I feel they are "sweetened" still. 20/1 GMT 10.31 Oil - The Contracts - WTI Expiration date for the CLG9 contracts today so look for a test of the $30 level, could even brake it into the $20īs. CLH9 is trading just below $40 and as the day progresses the price level should settle in the mid $30īs. Brent due to itīs larger trading area is still beating the WTI spread by around $10. Site Updates Lack of Updates to the Site, due again to Travel. 15/12 GMT 05.54 Central Banks - EU ECB A 50 basis point cut would be just ordinary. I would look for a 100 basis point cut to actually do some good. Especially as the ECB has been up the creek without a paddle in calling the future... 14/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 1.2 mmbls (API + 0.65 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.1 mmbls (API + 3.6 mmbls) Distillates + 6.4 mmbls (API + 0.4 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 8.2 mmbls Crude Import 9.7 mmbopd - 0.8 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.8 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd Refineries 85.2% + 0.6% Gasoline Demand 8.9 mmbopd - 2.2% yoy Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd - 2.4% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.4 mmbopd - 11.0% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 19.7 mmbopd - 4.0% yoy 14/1 GMT 05.32 China - Crude Demand China 2004 6.6 mmbopd 2005 6.4 mmbopd 2006 6.9 mmbopd 2007 7.5 mmbopd 2008 7.8 mmbopd (this sites prognosis) As I have pointed to before 14/10 and much earlier, Chinas demand for Crude is falling/faltering and it probably will come in at below 7.6 mmbopd for 2008. Media for some obscure reason only publishes the Crude Import numbers and the latest estimate was that the Imports grew by 9%... Well not surprising as Chinas domestic crude production is falling, much due to problems with infrastructure and lack of foreign investment. Chinas dependence on Crude Imports rose above 50% for the first time in December of 2008, therefore the Import numbers are rising... Crude Imports have gone from 34% in 2003 to 50% of total demand in 2008. 14/1 GMT 00.13 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, a further build across the board.. Crude + 3.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Note that the API are changing the report day to 21.30 GMT Tuesdays as per 27/1... 13/1 GMT 04.33 China The Q4 GDP numbers and the 2008 numbers are not going to be pretty, as I have stated. Things are getting worse and the Q1 2009 stats will put China in a worse place... Factory closings and increasing unemployment for a work force that have become used to at least "two meals" a day... 13/1 GMT 04.27 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX I would look for a move back into the $0.50 to $0.60 level in tune with the move down from the May 2008 top.. 13/12 GMT 03.41 Free Market Capitalism Australia has been named the world's third freest economy by American think tank the Heritage Foundation, behind Asian City/States Hong Kong and Singapore. North Korea and Zimbabwe came in at the bottom of the rankings. The annual index, which measures a jurisdiction's commitment to free market capitalism, placed Hong Kong atop a list of 179 economies for the 15th year in a row. Hong Kong's Asian rival Singapore was again ranked second, followed by Australia, Ireland and New Zealand, according to the pro-free market group. Sweden come in at number 26... 12/12 GMT 02.27 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - Luno 2 A bit of old news yet there you are.. With testing to get underway, itīs just a question of how much oil... With the most important part of this drill ie a further part in establishing a reserve number for the field.. In this Luno is estimated to be a + 500 mmbls field, at least.. 11/1 GMT 04.26 Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria Again a worthy repost... Especially as the Al Gore "indoctrinated", ie the "patients" are running the asylum.. "Mars is being hit by rapid climate change and it is happening so fast that the red planet could lose its southern ice cap. Scientists from Nasa say that Mars has warmed by about 0.5C since the 1970s. This is similar to the warming experienced on Earth over approximately the same period. Since there is no known life on Mars it suggests rapid changes in planetary climates could be a natural phenomena."..... 11/1 GMT 04.21 Oil - The Contracts - WTI Russia and the Ukraine with help from the Czechoslovakian Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek have it seems come to an accord over the "Gas Delivery" problem. Look for the contracts to reflect this along side with the "grim" outlook for the US economy going forward as painted by Barack Obama. Again nothing new to readers of this site... 9/1 GMT 04.14 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX Impressive up-tick for this one, easy money... For sure the management reshuffle after the Blackrock deal is a driver, yet.. A warning. 8/1 GMT 06.19 Vostok Gas - VGAS SDB:SAX The Market quickly consumes those who do not know better!.. 8/1 GMT 05.47 Oil - The Contracts - WTI The trend... 7/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 6.7 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 3.3 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas - 147 Bcf Total Petroleum Inventories + 7.7 mmbls Crude Import 10.5 mmbopd + 1.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd - 0.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.3 mmbopd + 0.15 mmbopd Refineries 84.6% + 2.1% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd - 2.2% yoy Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd + 0.3% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.3 mmbopd - 9.1% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 20.1 mmbopd - 2.9% yoy Note the first positive Demand numbers for Distillates since.. a very long time. No build yet in the SPRīs... So despite problems in the shipping channel leading to LOOP the Import numbers for Crude rose, next week will see this effect. On the whole a Bearish Report. 4/1 GMT 02.59 IRAQ - Western Desert - Just a Reminder! I wrote in 2007, 20/2 GMT 00.19 IRAQ - Western Desert I wrote in 2005, 20/7 2005 IRAQ - Western Desert There are interesting "Oil Fields" in Iraqīs Western Desert....." As expected there are interesting things in Western Iraq close to Syria.. 19/2 2007 In a remote patch of the Anbar desert just 20 miles from the Syrian border, a single blue pillar of flanges and valves sits atop an enormous deposit of oil and natural gas that would be routine in this petroleum-rich country except for one fact: This is Sunni territory. Huge petroleum deposits have long been known in Iraq's Kurdish north and Shiite south. But now, Iraq has substantially increased its estimates of the amount of oil and natural gas in deposits on Sunni lands after quietly paying foreign oil companies tens of millions of dollars over the past two years to re-examine old seismic data across the country and retrain Iraqi petroleum engineers.... 4/1 GMT 10.51 Oil - Iran Iran has set itīs national budget based on a oil price of $37.50 for 2009. Note that the budget base for 2008 was $55. Oman has set a budget base of $45 for 2009. 2/1 GMT 02.28 Oil - The Contracts Donīt look for the contracts to follow the 14% upturn before New Years... Russias paranoid view of how to behave in a civilized world drove the futures as did still the OPEC cuts, that were agreed on more than a week ago!? Anyway in the real world demand for Oil is still falling and will do so for a long time. As I said before when the Smart Money returns to the trading floor Crude will continue its trend... Spud!..