Greywolf

Latest Postings

31/12 GMT 16.41 2012 - The End? or Just a Calendar Ticking Over??
The Mayan k'in Calendar much like an odometer ticks over to a new cycle on 21/12/12 or does it...?

Mayan k'in - Long Count Calendar Countdown

31/12 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 0.5 mmbls (API + 0.089 mmbls)
Gasoline + 0.8 mmbls (API - 1.6 mmbls)
Distillates + 0.7 mmbls (API - 0.6 mmbls)
Natural Gas - 147 Bcf
Total Petroleum Inventories - 4.2 mmbls
Crude Import 9.2 mmbopd ´+ 0.1 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd - 0.2 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.15 mmbopd - 0.09 mmbopd
Refineries 82.5% - 2.2%
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd - 2.2% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd - 3.3% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.3 mmbopd - 12.4% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 19.9 mmbopd - 3.7% yoy

31/12 GMT 02.29 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
I expect,

Crude - 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 1.3 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates + 1.5 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Natural Gas - 138 Bcf

There is more crude stored at Cushing, 29 mmmbls at anytime since 2004 when stats for that storage were introduced.

29/12 GMT 23.46 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX
I stand by my earlier statement that it´s too early to get into this stock for maximum gain... Trade it for sure but
you better check the vitals like for instance volume.... Also a small thing called the Fundamentals!

29/12 GMT 23.28 Oil - The Contracts
Typical low volume trade in the holiday season. The contracts react to the Israel-Hamas action and still the OPEC
reduction which is yesterdays news.. Look for the contracts to continue the trend once full trading service is resumed.

All of the numbers I have seen point to as stated before far worse demand numbers...

28/12 GMT 16.51 USA - Retail Sales
Ex autos US retail sales were down - 5.2% in November and - 8% in December up to and including the 24th of December.
Half of the drop in each month was due to Gasoline. However if you include auto sales things get way worse...

26/12 GMT 17.42 Oil - The Contracts
Fairly ligth volume but the contracts did react to the UAE´s 15% cut in loadings, even if this is only in line with
the lastest OPEC reductions. Otherwise Japans oil imports are again down by - 4.8%. Nippon Oil Corporation Japan's
largest refiner, plans to reduce output by 25% next month and it may continue cuts in the first three months of 2009
due to weak demand. Japan is after the US and China the worlds third largest oil importer....

25/12 GMT 12.32 Oil - The Contracts
On a technical level I belive the $30 to $33 interval could hold for a time, even if a journey down into the $20´s
is not out of the question. And in this I could see this going even lower when the GDP numbers start rolling out of
China for instance...

24/12 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude - 3.1 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 3.3 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates + 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.7 mmbls
Crude Import 9.1 mmbopd ´- 0.9 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.3 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.24 mmbopd + 0.14 mmbopd
Refineries 84.7% - 2.4%
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd - 2.7% yoy
Distillate Demand 3.9 mmbopd - 5.1% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.3 mmbopd - 11.7% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 19.8 mmbopd - 4.2% yoy

23/12 GMT 11.07 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX
I can only reiterate,

10/11 GMT 07.38 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX
It is time for the company to issue a balance sheet for liquidation purposes and it would be appropriate to
do so in conjunction with the publication of the results of the rights issue. Especially as the companies
asset/debt ratio is far worse than previously stated.

And again point to the fact that the companies asset/debt ratio is far worse than previously stated....

23/12 GMT 06.05 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX
Tanganyika Oil Company Ltd. today announces that NASDAQ OMX Stockholm has decided to delist Tanganyika's
Swedish Depositary Receipts ("SDRs") from NASDAQ OMX Stockholm. The last day of trading in the SDRs on NASDAQ OMX
Stockholm will be December 23, 2008. That is today boys and girls...

23/12 GMT 00.27 The Site
During the upcoming holiday season I hope to get the time to further develop some of the thoughts running through
the site...

22/12 GMT 20.21 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX
I would not get caught up in the current "buying frenzy" which it has to be fair to say died down some, even if this
stock did very well last week thanks to cash moving from TYK to the stock... A bit too early to get into this one for
maximum effect unless you are very long.

22/12 GMT 20.17 Oil - The Contracts
It is all about Demand as I have been saying for a long time. OPEC and any oil producer for that matter can tweek
the production numbers but it´s all down to Demand and on a global scale it is falling.

WTI Feb09 closed the day at $39.91 down - 5.8%...

Also OPEC can not cut production more than on a "tabloid" level due to their own economic criteria and the fact that
the world is heading into a Depression ie a shortage of oil would further hurt the global economy..
See earlier posts on this.

22/12 GMT 09.53 China
China to reduce lending and deposit rates by 27 basis points to 5.31%.

19/12 GMT 16.05 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX
95% of shareholders have accepted the bid...

19/12 GMT 10.03 Atlas Copco ATCO:SAX
Look for more about Atlas going forward...

19/12 GMT 09.42 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - NEW LICENCES
Lundin Petroleum AB ("Lundin Petroleum") is pleased to announce that its wholly owned subsidiary Lundin Norway AS
has been awarded four new exploration licence interests in the 2008 Norwegian Licencing Round, Awards in Predefined
Areas (APA). These include two licences which will be operated by Lundin Petroleum. The licence interests detailed
below are located in the North Sea.

Licence Lundin Petroleum licence interest
Block 7/2, 4, 5, 8 60%*
Block 15/12 40%
Block16/2, 3, 5, 6 40%*
Block 25/7, 10 30%
*operator Lundin Petroleum

Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO of Lundin Petroleum comments; "We are pleased to be awarded further acreage
in Norway particularly to expand our position in the highly prospective Greater Luno area where we will operate
Block 16/2, 3, 5, 6 (PL 501)"'

18/12 GMT 21.16 Oil - The Contracts
January front month expires on Friday and it closed the day at $36.22 - 9.66%.. As always in the change over of
the Front Month trade you get a divergence and February 09 contracts ended the day at $41.67 - 2.3%.

Look for the Feb09 contracts to catch up to the Jan09´s during Fridays trade.

The spread between WTI & Brent is much due to the perception of where demand will be centered going forward and there
Asia has been the place. Look for the spread to thin considerably.

Graph up later.

17/12 GMT 23.54 Oil - The Contracts
The trend has at least from this sites perspective been clear for a long time and we are now heading for the $30 to
$33 range.

17/12 GMT 19.04 OPEC
So its Fluffy OPEC, as expected... A cut of 4.2 mmbls brought back to September which means an actual cut
of 2.2 mmbls. The old OPEC two step..

The last time the Production Quota was at this level the WTI contracts traded at $30..

16/12 GMT 09.12 ÚSA - The Fed
A 50 basis point cut is expected, could be as large as 75 points...

15/12 GMT 17.12 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX
Enough said!

12/12 GMT 15.12 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX
Sinopec’s chairman, Su Shulin is not in Syria to simply oversee the transition team... Look for ink on paper as soon
as this weekend..

12/12 GMT 03.48 USA - Car Industry Bailout - Dead!
Despite a world wide wave of Rampant Socialism..... There will be no bailout of the US Car Industry. An Industry
that has been losing money for decades. I guess the United Auto Workers Union will have to put their hopes in the
upcoming four years of Obamaism...

That the White House would use TARP money to save the day is highly unlikely....

11/12 GMT 17.43 OPEC
OPEC will cut production.. But don´t look for a "Killer Cut". The global economy is far too sensitive and OPEC
knows very well who pays their bills..

10/12 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 0.4 mmbls (API + 3.4 mmbls)
Gasoline + 3.8 mmbls (API + 5.0 mmbls)
Distillates + 5.6 mmbls (API + 3.7 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.7 mmbls
Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd ´+ 0.5 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.1 mmbopd - 0.02 mmbopd
Refineries 87.4% + 3.1%
Gasoline Demand 8.9 mmbopd - 3.2% yoy
Distillate Demand 3.9 mmbopd - 4.0% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.3 mmbopd - 16.8% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 19.3 mmbopd - 6.1% yoy

Simply more Supply than Demand....

10/12 GMT 09.08 China
Chinas GDP growth numbers are as I have stated before, way over the top inflated...

"Australian Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens warned yesterday growth in China may have already fallen below the
critical 8% level. Most economists regard 8% as the magic number for China with anything below that level
effectively a "recession" and a potential trigger-point for economic and even political instability.

Not news for anyone who has followed this site....

10/11 GMT 07.38 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX
It is time for the company to issue a balance sheet for liquidation purposes and it would be appropriate to do so
in conjunction with the publication of the results of the rights issue. Especially as the companies asset/debt ratio
is far worse than previously stated.

8/12 GMT 04.41 Oil - The Contracts
Closing prices for the 5/12..

WTI $40.81
Brent $39.67

Look for a "Bail-Out Package" bounce during the beginning of the week. Also Saudi Arabia has cut exports to Asian refineries
indicating a further Real cut in production. The test will be to see how the others in the cartel tow the line.
WTI is going to test the $40 level and well you know the trend...

5/12 GMT 06.26 China - Recession
I wrote,

3/11 GMT 02.56 China
Look for China to slow down faster than even I expected... At a GDP growth of 5% the country is compared
to the rest of the world effectively in a Recession and with statistics from the Communist State as they
are we are closer to this point, very close...

As I follow the Chinese economy fairly closely and have done so for a long time I am more and more convinced that the
country if not in Recession is very, very much closer to being so. Case in point is that Chinas demand for Crude as of
the end of October was 7.3 mmbopd. Crude demand for 2007 came in at 7.5 mmbopd... My own prognosis for 2008 is as stated
before 7.8 mmbopd with the caveat that this could be lower and more and more facts point to this being true.

5/12 GMT 04.03 Oil - The Contracts
Closing prices for the 4/12..

WTI $43.67
Brent $44.04

There will be a test of the 600 MA level of $42.85 for WTI and it would not be impropable to see a close in the
$30´s ahead of the weekend, most unlikely though. Yet in this the major support level could turn out to be a pivot point
and failure to breach it could see a short rally. However the contracts are heading for the $30 level, even if there will
be upticks and short rallies the trend is definitely one of further decline.

5/12 GMT 03.48 Central Banks - Sweden Riksbank - EU ECB - England BOE
The Riksbank cuts rates by 1.75%. This signals two things to the market - Panic and Incompetence!

4/12 GMT 04.21 The Site
Since the restart of the site it has, as of today seen 12.000.000 Unique Visitors. Thanks..

4/12 GMT 03.39 Australia - National Security Advisor
The Australian PM Kevin Rudd has made an interesting decision by appointing a man from the Regiment as Australias
first National Security Advisor in the form of former SAS soldier Duncan Lewis. Lewis was commanding officer of
the SAS Regiment, yet not from the Regiment. Lewis is a 30 year veteran of the Army.

4/12 GMT 03.31 Oil - The Contracts
WTI and Brent are in Asian electronic trade taking a further step towards the $40 level,

WTI $45.52
Brent $43.80

3/12 GMT 21.21 Central Banks - Sweden Riksbank - EU ECB - England BOE
The RBA in Australia cut by 1% to 4.25% and on Thursday the worlds oldest and youngest central banks will show
their hands. The ECB cuts by 1% and the Riksbank by 1.25%. The BOE the worlds second oldest central bank will
cut by 1%. At least they are my guesstimates.

3/12 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude - 0.4 mmbls (API - 2.3 mmbls)
Gasoline - 1.6 mmbls (API - 0.4 mmbls)
Distillates - 1.7 mmbls (API + 3.1 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories - 0.4 mmbls
Crude Import 9.5 mmbopd - 0.4 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd + 0.0 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.12 mmbopd - 0.0 mmbopd
Refineries 84.3% - 0.6%
Gasoline Demand 8.9 mmbopd - 3.2% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd - 2.2% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.3 mmbopd - 16.7% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 19.3 mmbopd - 6.3% yoy

First drop for Crude in ten weeks. US demand for crude and products keeps falling as it is in the rest of the world,
a very simple fact.

3/12 GMT 10.19 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC Extension
This moves the deal "nicely" into the fiscal year 2009...

2/12 GMT 23.01 Oil - The Contracts
As stated $42.85 is the perceived major support level right now.

1/12 GMT 20.01 OPEC
OPEC is still trying to get a handle on the result of the latest cut in production hence the lack of any decision
over the past weekend. And judging by tracking tanker traffic and other variables I doubt very much they will even
be able to move on a decision later this month. The market does not belive so with a - 10% down day...

Also if OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El Badri thinks $70 to $90 oil is a "very reasonable" level today then he
needs to wake up and smell the coffee. What the World economy needs right now is "cheap oil". No two ways about it!

1/12 GMT 19.19 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX
Desperation...

The company with it´s back to the wall sells it´s Norweigan subsidiary and all of its assets on the Norwegian
continental shelf to the German company Bayerngas for $220 million, 1.764 million SEK. How much net profit Pare
makes on the deal is for obvious reasons unclear and will be so for a long time to come as the sale will be
conveniently booked next year... If anybody thinks Pare is actually getting $220 million for this deal well then..
Given the companies debt structure I would venture to guess that the net profit may come in in the region of $130 to
$150 million at best. In fact I think there will be little or no real net profit at all as this sale simply buys
time before the inevitable.

So Pare sells a producing asset, 30% of todays daily production to concentrate on "wild cat" exploration and possible
future production starts sometime in the distant future in Africa.....

21/11 GMT 05.01 Oil - Storage
Royal Dutch Shell has booked supertankers capable of storing fairly large capacity loads of Crude, 10 mmbls...
Iran and other oil producers are already storing huge amounts of crude in VLCC´s...

21/11 GMT 04.22 China
And so it begins... About 60.000 to 90.000 factories in country have gone bankrupt this year and this then leads to
unemployment for massive amounts of workers, who of late have taken their frustrations out in the form of riots...

20/11 GMT 20.23 Oil - The Contracts
Well $50 was a snack as expected. WTI closed the day at $49.62 down - 7.5%... In electronic trade the WTI contract is
going for $48.70 down 9.18%... Graph up later.

20/11 GMT 15.31 USA - Gasoline Demand
Americans drove almost 11 Billion fewer miles this September, that is down - 4.4% year on year..

20/11 GMT 05.27 China
Things are going to get real bad really quickly, just a reminder!

20/11 GMT 03.06 Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria
A worthy repost...
Especially as the Obama White House seems to be Al Gore "indoctrinated", ie the "patients are running the asylum"..

The Great Global Warming Swindle
Doomsday Called Off
9 Lies about Global Warming
9 Facts about Climate Change

20/11 GMT 01.25 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - A Warning!
The company cuts it´s Capex for 2009 and now it wants more money from the market to finance past sins..? I would not be
surprised if this company see´s bankruptcy within six months.. Where did all of the huge profits go?? This company is a
scam.. Look at the debt structure!

Stay Away from this Stock!!

19/11 GMT 19.47 Central Banks - USA The Fed
The minutes from the latest meeting show that The Fed is expecting a US Recession to run for a year or more...

The worlds oldest central bank, Swedens Riksbank should be told about this.. In this you need to use large letters
and simple words with lot´s of pictures because the board of the bank is populated with "simple" folk.. *G*

”The global financial system has been shaken to its foundations since the middle of September.
Even countries like Sweden, far from the centre of the crisis, are now tangibly affected by the crisis.
The Riksbank, other authorities, the Riksdag and the government are taking forceful measures to minimise
the damage to the economy as a whole," says Governor Stefan Ingves in a speech given at the Riksdag Committee
on Finance hearing today".. 13/11/2008

"The Riksbank's assessment is that the most acute phase of the crisis may subside over the next few months,
it will probably take time before conditions return to normal. Confidence must be restored on several levels
and that takes time, says Barbro Wickman-Parak in a speech at Bankföreningen today".. 12/11/2008

And then you have the arrogant "moron" from the worlds youngest central bank the ECB,

"The head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, said Tuesday that he had not yet seen
deflation trends in the eurozone, which has taken a hit from the global financial crisis. "I don't see yet trends
of deflation in the euro area," he said in a question and answer session after a speech at the Royal Institute of
International Affairs think tank in London. Trichet also said fiscal stimulus plans were a good way to lift the
economy for those who could afford it, although he stressed that European Union countries must stay within EU
borrowing rules". 18/11/2008

19/11 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 1.6 mmbls (API + 8.0 mmbls)
Gasoline + 0.5 mmbls (API + 0.7 mmbls)
Distillates - 1.5 mmbls (API + 0.13 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.7 mmbls
Crude Import 9.9 mmbopd + 0.4 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd + 0.3 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.12 mmbopd - 0.02 mmbopd
Refineries 84.9% + 0.3%
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd - 2.2% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd - 3.3% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.3 mmbopd - 20.3% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 19.1 mmbopd - 7.0% yoy

19/11 GMT 14.13 Oil - The Contracts
I would view the 600 MA level of $42.85 as the definite bottom in this move down...

18/11 GMT 19.54 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
I expect,

Crude + 1.5 mmbls
Gasoline + 1.0 mmbls
Distillates + 2.0 mmbls

Note that US retail gasoline demand rose + 1.5% last week due to cheaper "at the pump" prices.... Demand however is still
down - 2.8% year on year.. With gasoline imports last week down by 0.4 mmbopd the product could actually see a decline
in the above stats.. It all depends on the import numbers.

18/11 GMT 02.50 Global Recession
I wrote,

4/4 GMT 05.06 The Price of Oil
"I wrote,

1/2 GMT 23.22 The Price of Oil
What the world needs now is cheaper oil...

The world is well supplied with oil as I have pointed to before yet oil still costs too much for the
global economy and especially the US economy to make it through this very rough patch that is coming.
If Crude stays at around $90 going forward then the US economy is going to go into a possible free-fall
as the summer season comes into view. $90 oil would mean that crack spreads are going to drive Gasoline
prices up towards $4 a Gallon and in a Recession type economy that is just simply crazy and a sure guarantee
that we will see not only a US recession but a possible and more dire global consequence.

Given that the contracts have been driven by the fall of the dollar and geopoliticals but those effects
aside the price of oil is too high. To save the global economy from a major slowdown and in this none is
immune not China, India the EU in fact none is immune. The price of oil needs to retreat into the $60 to $70 range.
Something most should start adjusting to as the indicators are pointing to this level.

I stand by this sentiment and add to it that unless the price of oil does retreat to the level of $60 to $70 then
the rest of the world is going to go through a very rough patch... Depression! There is no such thing as decoupling
of economies in a global economy we are all in the same boat...

5/10 GMT 23.31 Global Recession
Do I belive it will get that bad... Well, be prepared for it because it´s out there lurking... In this Europe is in
for a major dowturn so the focus is going to move from the US to the EU, 27 diverse states with in most cases totally
different criteria"...

If you care to do a Ctrl+F Search of the site with the key word "Recession" you will find this site saw this mess coming
a long, long time ago.... More on this...

18/11 GMT 00.16 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - A Warning!
I wrote,

16/5 GMT 01.49 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX
"I usually do not comment on shares I do not favour simply because there is no money in it! But when it
comes to PA Resources well..."

"Actually I have commented on the company twice once this year and also in November of 2007 I belive the
27/11 to be precise. Just show me one thing! How much is the company actually going to spend on exploration
going forward? Producing oil from depleting oil fields without a serious financial intent to replenish the
Reserve does give you a great profit margin but little else."

The company cuts it´s Capex for 2009 and now it wants more money from the market to finance past sins..? I would not be
surprised if this company see´s bankruptcy within six months.. Where did all of the huge profits go?? This company is a
scam.. Look at the debt structure!

Stay Away from this Stock!!

17/11 GMT 21.52 The Site - Updates
Lack of updates due to travel..

13/11 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude +- 0.0 mmbls (API + 0.9 mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls (API + 3.6 mmbls)
Distillates + 0.6 mmbls (API + 1.5 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.2 mmbls
Crude Import 9.5 mmbopd - 0.5 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.6 mmbopd - 0.4 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.14 mmbopd - 0.01 mmbopd
Refineries 84.6% - 0.7%
Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd - 1.9% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd - 4.6% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.3 mmbopd - 18.8% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 19.1 mmbopd - 6.6% yoy

11/11 GMT 20.12 Oil - The Contracts
WTI ends the day at $59.33 or - 4.9%. There are a lot of support levels on the way down but $50 is it seems the next
big target. Look again at the MA´s..

11/11 GMT 12.51 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - A Competing Bid
A rumor has been floating around for more than a few days concerning a competing bid for TYK. The basis for this rumor
is that Syria is getting closer to the west on a lot of issues and with an Obama presidency this would accelerate
which in turn would lead to the possible future involvment of US and other oil companies in Syria.

Do I belive the rumor? Well it makes sense in some part but I think on the whole it does not seem plausible given the
time-scale, ie too late. Also this deal has been signed off on by both states, China and Syria and I do not see this bond
being broken by a third party. Yet there is no denying that even if just a little bit true this rumor would make things
very interesting going forward...

11/11 GMT 02.35 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Q3 Report
A comment on the Q3 Report will be posted after it has been published.. Look for a repeat of Q2 and bits..

9/11 GMT 23.51 China
China has launched a huge economic stimulus plan worth nearly $600 billion... Due to the slowing economy... See
earlier postings.

7/11 GMT 04.38 USA - Car Industry Bailout
All part of the Oil Market... GM, General Motors is again going to show a loss, which it has done since 1804 sorry 2004..
The company now has the temerity to ask the US Government for Bailout Aid!? Who´s next! Pizza Hut?

As far as GM is concerned I have a thought, and in this call me crazy but..
How about building cars that the customers actually want to buy!!...

6/11 GMT 20.45 Oil - The Contracts
WTI closed the day at $60.77 down - 7.0%.. The US Jobs Report out Friday should send the contracts well into the $50´s..

6/11 GMT 20.08 Central Banks - Bank of England
BOE lowers rates by 1.5%.. Desperation is the word! The BOE and Swedens Riksbank raised rates during the middle of this
year with as we know not an idea about what they were doing. The Riksbanks vice-chairman admits as much today in saying
that "despite the fact that financial crisis happens read early 90´s, we were not prepared for this one".!?

5/11 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude +- 0.0 mmbls (API + 1.8 mmbls)
Gasoline + 1.1 mmbls (API + 1.6 mmbls)
Distillates + 1.2 mmbls (API - 1.9 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.1 mmbls
Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd - 0.3 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.15 mmbopd - 0.07 mmbopd
Refineries 85.3% +- 0.0%
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd - 2.3% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd - 4.8% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 15.9% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 19.1 mmbopd - 6.7% yoy

4/11 GMT 02.30 Central Banks - Australia RBA
The RBA cuts interest rates by 0.75% to 5.25%... - RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement. "On balance, it
appears likely that spending and activity will be weaker than earlier expected."

3/11 GMT 22.42 Iran - Israel Military Strike
There is a Window for an Israeli attack on Iran's Nuclear installations which opens Nov 5...

3/11 GMT 20.31 Oil - The Contracts
WTI closed the day at $63.91 down - 5.8%... We are looking for prices in the $50´s.. GM, Toyota etc all are reporting
vehicle sales down and way down - 30% or thereabouts.

Again note the 200 MA & 600 MA..

3/11 GMT 03.15 Iran - Oil Output
Iran has been again caught lying to the world.. "There is at the moment no stockpile of crude oil floating in the
Persian Gulf," - Ali Ashgar Arshi, the head of the National Iranian Oil Company's international affairs department.

I wrote,

31/7 GMT 19.29 Iran - Oil Output
Iran will halt shipments of heavy fuel oil from August as it builds domestic stocks ahead of winter, and due to a
heavy fourth-quarter maintenance season, industry sources said on Thursday....

I wrote on 25/6,

"Iran is currently storing about 33 mmbls in 15 VLCC Supertankers, the country has now laid a further order for 3
more VLCC´s. Each with storage capacity of between 1.5 mmbls and 2.0 mmbls.

The "official" reason is that Iran is waiting for the Asian Refinery work-over period to end in August/September...
Most of the oil stored in the VLCC´s is heavy oil. The thing is that the current 15 tankers have already been
storing oil for many months... Asian demand is simply falling and with China, Indonesia and India raising the price
of Oil and Diesel we are going to see more Demand Destruction"..

3/11 GMT 02.56 China
Look for China to slow down faster than even I expected... At a GDP growth of 5% the country is compared to the
rest of the world effectively in a Recession and with statistics from the Communist State as they are we are closer to
this point, very close...

3/11 GMT 02.12 Greywolf Fund
Up soon...

2/11 GMT 06.03 USA - The Election
Not since Jospeh Kennedy bought the 1960 election for his son John Fitzgerald Kennedy has America been on the road to
electing a man of less experience than Barack Hussein Obama.. The US and the world are infor four years of "Socialism Lite"
with it seems both a White House and a Congress in the hands of the Democrats, in this many of the wannabies have no problem
of putting the word Social infront of Democrat. Higher taxes, larger Government, more regulation, protectionism etc..
OK not a problem as far as I am concerned as you simply have to adapt to the new field of play.

The worry is that very many of the voters who will put their trust in Obama belive that the age of Camelot will come back
and especially a large portion of the black voters will want to see real change ie "to get some of the power"..
But as always the business of getting elected is vastly different from actually running the country. Here is where things
get sticky as Obama can´t do even half of what people have been lead to expect. How is the left leaning media going to
treat this President who was the great hope but turned out to be.... The worry lay in the level of disappointment!
It´s going to be fun watching the Democrats trying to make a horse race out of the next four years.....

30/10 GMT 22.24 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Sinopec Prospectus

The Sinopec Prospectus

30/10 GMT 19.17 China
Three interest cuts in six weeks.. Yeah China is insulated from the Global Recession... Not!
Look for this to get worse going forward especially as the US vehicle industry is in dire straits. In the US vehicle sales
are 17% of the total retail sector. Add to this the spare parts, tools industry where most of anything is Made in China..

30/10 GMT 19.14 The Market
Unless you really know what you are doing, so any bankers reading this...*G* Unless you know what you are about stay out
of this market until after the New Year as the usual end of year silly trades will be accentuated by the Global Recession.
If you care to dip your feet then sell into any rally as I have pointed to before as they will be either stimulus package
or interest rate cut driven.. Cash is King!

28/10 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 0.5 mmbls (API + 1.4 mmbls)
Gasoline - 1.5 mmbls (API - 0.8 mmbls)
Distillates + 2.3 mmbls (API + 2.6 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.7 mmbls
Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.8 mmbopd - 0.3 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.27 mmbopd + 0.80 mmbopd
Refineries 85.3% + 0.5%
Gasoline Demand 8.9 mmbopd - 3.4% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd - 5.2% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 13.1% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 18.9 mmbopd - 7.8% yoy

29/10 GMT 07.09 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
I expect,

Crude + 2.5 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates + 1.3 mmbls (API na mmbls)

Year on year, US retail gasoline demand has dropped - 6.4% and the four week moving average for gasoline demand is down
- 8.0%..

28/10 GMT 17.42 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX
The prospectus is in the mail...

As I have stated before this deal is done! Sinopec have moved in and are not going anywhere else. The interesting thing
in all of this is the huge discount still offered in the market. Any concerns about a too low bid have been erased
by trading the discount and currency difference. The rest is just a lazy wait for the money to roll in... This then being
my definitely last posting about this subject matter.

27/10 GMT 01.52 China
China must not under-estimate the impact of the global financial crisis but its economy is strong enough to weather
the storm, the nation's central bank chief says. "The current adjustment of global economic financial markets is the
inevitable result of the releasing of unbalanced contradictions that have accumulated over a long period," Zhou Xiaochuan
told a parliamentary meeting. We cannot underestimate the impacts of this on our economy."

The People's Bank of China would continue a flexible and prudent monetary policy to address "unstable elements" attacking
the global economy and strive to maintain fast but stable economic growth, he said. "We must recognise that the outlook of
our overall economy is currently good. "The strength of our financial organs are increasing and their profitability and
capability to fight risks are also rising, market liquidity is rather ample and the financial system is stable and safe.

"We can effectively defend against the impact coming from abroad." - Yeah Right!

I predict a low on the Shanghai Composite of around 900 to 1.000... Well that is the stock market but the effect of the
Global Recession will be worse for China as it is now part of the global economy as never before. Factories are closing
down in the country due to a lack of export orders, many workers are having to go back to their old way of life. In general
the pain felt by all the economies across the globe is hitting China aswell. There is no insulation or decoupeling from
the Global Economy.. For China this is however a new experience and in this lay the real danger...

23/10 GMT 04.23 Oil - The Contracts
Note the 200 MA & 600 MA..

23/10 GMT 02.42 OPEC - Updated
"The meeting this week will see at best a "cut" of 2.0 mmbopd, in so much as this will be a real cut well history is very
clear about OPEC´s inability to cut real production in a falling market. The market will yawn and move on to the facts
and they are that global demand for Oil is Falling and falling Fast. I reiterate this point as I have been doing for longer
than I care to remember"...

Yesterday OPEC decleared it was having problems finding customers for it´s Oil, ofcoure it is and has been for a long time.
Iran has been storing Crude on Supertankers and still is by the way. The whole Oil Complex has had more oil than needed for
a long time. Even when WTI was at $147 the world was not running out of oil and not one singular customer could not recieve
the Oil demanded.

So on Friday OPEC makes a decision and I belive they will do no more than earlier expected because if they turn off the taps
and the price of Crude goes higher they are going to find fewer customers for their resource then they have today. When a
market has to revert back from Madness to the Fundamentals it is a painfull experience, much like the one we are going
through right now. WTI $147 was madness!

22/10 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 3.2 mmbls (API + 2.8 mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.7 mmbls (API + 2.1 mmbls)
Distillates + 2.2 mmbls (API + 0.3 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 9.5 mmbls
Crude Import 10.4 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd - 0.4 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.19 mmbopd + 0.90 mmbopd
Refineries 84.8% + 2.6%
Gasoline Demand 8.8 mmbopd - 5.3% yoy
Distillate Demand 3.9 mmbopd - 5.8% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 9.2% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 18.7 mmbopd - 8.5% yoy

22/10 GMT 01.41 OPEC - Updated
The meeting this week will see at best a "cut" of 2.0 mmbopd, in so much as this will be a real cut well history is very
clear about OPEC´s inability to cut real production in a falling market. The market will yawn and move on to the facts
and they are that global demand for Oil is Falling and falling Fast. I reiterate this point as I have been doing for longer
than I care to remember...

20/10 GMT 07.19 The Site
The Postings and Comments have for some time been very abbreviated and this is due to time constraints.

20/10 GMT 03.00 China
GDP growth July - September 9%
GDP growth January - September 9.9%

I belive on the evidence given that these numbers are as stated before "sweetened".. Much due to Chinas exposure to the
US debt crisis in which China has a large stake. Chinas consumption is falling and many if not most of the factories closed
for the Olympics are not going to reopen anytime soon. There are many on the ground factors that point to the simple fact
that the worlds producer of cheap goods is going to get severly hurt by the Global Economic Slowdown...

19/10 GMT 21.56 Oil - The Contracts
South Korea joins the Club when it comes to Financial difficulties..
Just wait until Chinas problems start trickling out..

Global demand for Oil is falling and falling fast.

17/10 GMT 03.39 Oil - The Contracts
WTI closed at $69.85, Brent closed at $66.32. The WTI $70 level will probably be a pivot point in the short term and look
for more volatility. As to the bottom of this current trend it does look more and more to be the $60 level which brings us
back to May/June 2007... Yet there are more shoes to drop out there in the real world so a sub WTI $50 is not out of the
question.

16/10 GMT 16.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 5.6 mmbls (API + 2.0 mmbls)
Gasoline + 7.0 mmbls (API - 0.5 mmbls)
Distillates - 0.5 mmbls (API + 0.86 mmbls)
Natural Gas + 79 Bcf
Total Petroleum Inventories + 11.8 mmbls
Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.5 mmbopd + 0.1 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.91 mmbopd + 0.06 mmbopd
Refineries 82.2% + 1.1%
Natural Gas Demand - 7.2% yoy
Gasoline Demand 8.8 mmbopd - 5.3% yoy
Distillate Demand 3.9 mmbopd - 6.9% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 6.4% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 18.6 mmbopd - 8.9% yoy

Demand, demand and what I have been saying for a long time Demand...

15/10 GMT 23.55 Oil - The Contracts
WTI closed at $74.54 and this means the $75 support level was out the window. Electronic trade is currently at $73.52...

15/10 GMT 20.34 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out 16/10 at GMT 16.00
I expect,

Crude + 6.2 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 4.5 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates + 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Natural Gas + 89 Bcf
Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.3 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.22 mmbopd
Refineries 83.0%

US retail gasoline demand last week fell by 9.7% compared to last year. This is the second week in a row demand has
fallen more than 9% year on year...

14/10 GMT 21.23 Oil - Global Crude Demand

2004 20.73 mmbopd
2005 20.80 mmbopd
2006 20.68 mmbopd
2007 20.68 mmbopd
2008 20.70 mmbopd (this sites prognosis)

2004 14.48 mmbopd
2005 14.54 mmbopd
2006 14.59 mmbopd
2007 14.68 mmbopd
2008 14.55 mmbopd (this sites prognosis)

India

2004 2.35 mmbopd
2005 2.35 mmbopd
2006 2.40 mmbopd
2007 2.45 mmbopd
2008 2.48 mmbopd (this sites prognosis)

China

2004 6.6 mmbopd
2005 6.4 mmbopd
2006 6.9 mmbopd
2007 7.5 mmbopd
2008 7.8 mmbopd (this sites prognosis)

That the US demand for Crude and products is falling can easily be seen on the site. Of greatest interest is the demand
structure for China and here I belive more and more that total demand for the year will come in below the prognosis. As
with Chinas GDP numbers real statistics for Crude demand are hard to find but if you look hard enough... As for GDP growth
which is currently thought to run at about 8% I would caution that this number may be a little bit "sweetened" and actually
is lower.

OECD and the US, EU all report lower demand for Crude and in producing nations like China and India this will have great
effect as the commodities especially Oil and Copper show the size of economic activity and it is falling. In this there is
no "magical rescue" for Crude demand and I envisage that actual total crude demand will come in well below my prognosis.

14/10 GMT 02.37 The Global Economy - The Markets
Great day Monday! Was it the bottom of this market? I doubt it. Even if Asia is opening on a very optimistic note I am
weary as there are a a number of indicators that point to this being no more than a Bear Market Rally. Governments bailing
out moronic bankers is one thing but unemployment in the US is on the rise and the world is slowing down rapidly. 2002 saw
a crash scenario but it was not a washout and I belive we are due for one...

13/10 GMT 03.29 The Global Economy - Aid Packages
For the Australian Government to guarantee all bank deposits uncapped for three years is great.. Yet...

13/10 GMT 03.29 Oil - The Contracts - Updated
The demand situation is taking its toll on the contracts as is the general economic slowdown. Look for volatile trade due
to the different "help packages" put forward by Governments yet $70 looks set to be the next big target... In this the
MA 200 of $75 is a very serious support level to breach.

10/10 GMT 02.19 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX
Even if I still feel that bid is to low.. You do not marry a stock and given where we are it´s a good deal. So this is
my last posting about this company as the deal is done, or rather will be. Time to move on and in this the Team that has made
TYK the success it is are not going to sit idle. The next step is going to be very interesting, very interesting indeed.

10/10 GMT 02.15 The Market
As stated before this Crisis has not dropped down from a Sunny Summer Sky... This is going to get a lot worse.

8/10 GMT 18.44 Oil - Valuation of Oil Stocks
With the fall in the commodity price to todays levels most if not all of the oil sector stocks are priced against a
level of $50 WTI.. This ofcourse means that the oil stocks have taken a far larger hit than the underlying commodity
which creates in some cases a fairly huge undervaluation of the Oil Sector Stocks..

8/10 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 8.1 mmbls (API + 9.4 mmbls)
Gasoline + 7.2 mmbls (API + 3.4 mmbls)
Distillates - 0.5 mmbls (API - 1.2 mmbls)
Natural Gas + 88 Bcf
Total Petroleum Inventories + 19.6 mmbls
Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd + 1.3 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.4 mmbopd + 0.1 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.17 mmbopd - 0.03 mmbopd
Refineries 80.9% + 8.6%
Natural Gas Demand - 7.2% yoy
Gasoline Demand 8.8 mmbopd - 5.3% yoy
Distillate Demand 3.8 mmbopd - 8.3% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 5.5% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 18.7 mmbopd - 8.6% yoy

8/10 GMT 15.12 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Morskaya-1
The company PR concerning the very early estimates on the recoverable reserves of 230 mmbls is just that a very
early and conservative estimate. 230 mmbls is in the mid-case scenario and given the wide expanse of the Lagansky block,
130 square kms little more than a number to work from. Again I would remind all and sundry that this is a Gazprom
play with all that entails as far as politics is concerned. I have stated many times before that Oil in Russia is
part of the National Security grid...

7/10 GMT 04.30 Central Banks - Australia RBA
The RBA cuts interest rates by 1% to 6%...

7/10 GMT 03.44 USA - The Bailout Bill a $700 Billion Dollar Exercise in Futility
I wrote,

3/4 GMT 01.55 Iceland - A study in Desperation
The Icelandic State has a Secret Plan to Bag the Big Bad Bear... No it´s not Monty Python it´s for real...
Apparently Iceland is going to beat the market place and "put them thar bad hedge funds in their place.."

Face it you are fair game... And no you can´t beat the market!! Especially as the Icelandic economy has since
two years been a very good testbed for the global problems ahead...

As stated before this Crisis has not dropped down from a Sunny Summer Sky as it would seem when you hear one politician
after another trying to put the whatever back into the bottle... Let the market take care of the market! The decision
to put a moratorium on Short Selling is one of the most moronic to date. The Short Sellers be it Hedge Funds or singel
entities or whom ever actually called this market exactly right. Let the market take care of the market!

6/10 GMT 22.58 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC - The Bid
"TYK today has access to a world class resource in excess of 5.5 Billion Barrels of original Oil In Place in Syria
at the known underdeveloped fields of Oudeh, West Tishrine, East Tishrine, Sheikh Mansour, Sheikh Sulaiman and Jeribe."

But as of right now TYKS proven net reserves are 187 mmbls which is also what Sinopec is buying at a cost of $10 per barrel.
In the larger sceem of things 187 mmbls is less than 1% of Sinopec´s own proven reserves. Those are the basic facts..

Is Sinopec going to renage on this deal? No.
Does the current economic environment have any effect on this deal? No.
Is a $2 Billion deal a seismic event for Sinopec? No.
Do the Syrian and Chinese states object to this deal? No.

In fact as I have written before on the 28/9 "That it has been approved by both the Syrian and Chinese State was a forgone
conclusion and the bid would never have been made public unless this was the case."

Syrias current Proven Oil & Gas Reserves stand at about 44 Billion Barrels of these only 3.5 Billion Barrels is actual Oil
the rest is mostly Natural Gas.

So why the 20% discount in the stock price? I really do not care. I just know that in Canada today I could buy $31.50 for $22..
You go figure the rest.

6/10 GMT 02.28 China - GDP Growth
Looks set to come in at around 8.5% for 2008, and down towards 7% for 2009. Please note that these numbers are being
revised and there are far bleaker estimates.

5/10 GMT 23.26 Asia - Australia - Heading for a Lower opening
Stock markets look set to fall. Oil is trading below $92, down about $2 in early electronic trading.

5/10 GMT 23.01 Australia - Football - The Sea Eagles 2008 Premiers
Manly 40 - Storm 0..

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

3/10 GMT 07.15 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Ethiopia
Lundin Petroleum has signed a farm-out agreement with Global African Energy (New Age) for production sharing
contracts in Ethiopia.

Lundin will transfer a 15% stake to New Age, in the PSCs covering Blocks 2, 6, 7 and 8, located in the onshore
Ogaden basin in southern Ethiopia. Lundin will also transfer a 50% stake in the PSC covering the Adigala Area in
northern Ethiopia. New Age will pay a disproportionate share of the costs related to the 2D seismic programmes to
be carried out on the blocks, as well as its interest share of Lundin's past and ongoing costs.

Lundin Petroleum will remain as operator of all of the Ethiopian blocks.

3/10 GMT 20.41 Oil - The Contracts - Updated
WTI closed the day at $93.88 and the trend is accelerating down toward the target of $80, and beyond...
The $90 level is an important support level from both a technical and psychological viewpoint and it was tested in
mid September..

2/10 GMT 20.09 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC - The Bid
My advice to TYK shareholders.. "Just sit still in the boat!".. A Swedish colloquialism *G*

1/10 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 4.3 mmbls (API + 3.3 mmbls)
Gasoline + 0.9 mmbls (API - 0.6 mmbls)
Distillates - 2.3 mmbls (API - 3.0 mmbls)
Natural Gas + 87 Bcf
Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.5 mmbls
Crude Import 9.0 mmbopd + 1.9 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.3 mmbopd + 0.1 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd +- 0.0 mmbopd
Refineries 72.3% + 5.6%
Natural Gas Demand - 7.2% yoy
Gasoline Demand 8.9 mmbopd - 4.5% yoy
Distillate Demand 3.8 mmbopd - 8.4% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 1.5% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 19.0 mmbopd - 7.1% yoy

1/10 GMT 13.09 Bayou Bend Petroleum - BBP:V
Worth a look!

The Company Site

1/10 GMT 11.00 USA - A new vote on the Bailout Bill a $700 Billion Dollar Exercise in Futility
$700 Billion is nothing compared to the forces in the global market and this "saviours package from above" is not going
to make one iota of difference in the long run. Let the Market take care of the Market! The smart money will trade into
the short term rally created by the Bill and then dump everything...

1/10 GMT 02.31 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC
I would like to point out that anyone can make a bid for this company at anytime before the 24th of December or even
later for that matter. Yet if a competing bid is submitted during Sinopec´s window of current contractual obligations
until the 24th of December with TYK, Sinopec does have five days to make a counter offer.
This stock is very much in play...

30/9 GMT 02.17 Australia - The Global Economic Slowdown
"The head of China's leading steel company says the Chinese economy and steel industry are both "heading for a
downward slide", as hopes fade that China can insulate Australia's resource-dependent economy from the widening global
downturn. The comments by Baosteel's chairman, Xu Lejiang, coincide with new evidence that a contraction in Chinese
building construction is seriously crimping demand for Australian commodities, like iron ore. "The economy is heading
for a downward slide, so the steel industry is certainly heading for a downward slide," Mr Xu told the Herald at a
Baosteel conference in Shanghai.

Steel industry in China crumples

29/9 GMT 22.43 USA - The House of Representatives - Bailout Bill
So Free Market Capitalism is still alive and well and living in the USA. Markets and companies fail, that is all part
of the system. Right now there are far too many politicians running around like headless chickens trying to regulate
and save that which should not be saved. I belive it´s called Socialism..

29/9 GMT 22.34 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC - Updated
"The bid of $31.50 is not good enough".. Well it is getting slightly better.. Depending on which currency you are trading
from or have invested in as the $CAD/SEK differential is in play due to the rebate on a deal that will give you a given
amount come years end. If the offer is accepted by the shareholders that is.

That the Chinese for their part would pull out of this deal is not even conceivable..

29/9 GMT 01.02 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Muny Deng-1
Third time lucky...

28/9 GMT 00.53 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC - A Comment - Updated
The bid of $31.50 is not good enough.. That it has been approved by both the Syrian and Chinese State was a forgone
conclusion and the bid would never have been made public unless this was the case. Yet for this deal to happen it
needs to be approved by 66.3% of the shareholders. The Lundin family and the board and "some" other major shareholders
have said yes to the deal to the tune of 16.2% of the voting rights. Remember it only takes just shy of 34% of all
shareholders to say No to the deal for it to be so and here is where problems arise as there are very many "other" major
shareholders who are let´s say, less than happy with the current price structure... The point being that there is only
a small minority who at this moment have stated a full support for the offer...

26/9 GMT 18.38 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC - A Comment
The bid of $31.50 is not good enough....

25/9 GMT 07.25 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC
The Deal is Done! $31.50 or about 200 SEK per share..

24/9 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude - 1.5 mmbls (API - 0.1 mmbls)
Gasoline - 5.9 mmbls (API - 2.1 mmbls)
Distillates - 4.2 mmbls (API - 1.7 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories - 17.9 mmbls
Crude Import 7.1 mmbopd - 1.4 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd + 0.07 mmbopd
Refineries 66.7% - 10.4%
Natural Gas Demand - 7.1% yoy
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd - 3.5% yoy
Distillate Demand 3.9 mmbopd - 5.5% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 4.5% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 19.5 mmbopd - 5.3% yoy

Demand, demand and yet again demand or rather the lack of it...

24/9 GMT 12.14 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - A Deal
All things considered I would be very surprised if these negotiations do not lead to a Deal, very surprised indeed...

23/9 GMT 03.51 Iran - Israel Military Strike
The UN talks about sanctions against Iran. While in Israel there is a play for the position of Prime Minister with a twist,
as Labor’s Ehud Barak and Likud’s Binyamin Netanyahu are discussing a partnership with the aim of confronting the Iranian
nuclear threat...

22/9 GMT 20.03 Oil - WTI
Short covering and the dollar sends the contracts to a close of $120.29.. Also there is the short term belife that the
financial aid package in the US will stave off a recession, well good luck with that one.. Today was expiration for the
October contracts. November is now trading at about $108...

22/9 GMT 13.42 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - A Bid of 175 SEK
The notion that a bid of 175 SEK per share would be attractive to the Lundins is totally out of the question..

22/9 GMT 11.24 Syria - Oil Production
Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Sufian al-Alaw on Sunday said there are wide horizons to increase the output
and produce more quantities of the oil exploration in Syria, particularly with the existence of good reserves of oil and gas
with the potential of finding new wells. "The overall reserve of petroleum and gas in Syria is estimated by 44 billions barrel,
and the quantities available for production now are 9 billions, 5.3 billions were produced till today and the remaining
4 billions barrels will be produced during the next years," the Minister said during a press conference on the situation of
petroleum in Syria.

He added that the production average of oil in Syria reached at 380.000 bpd in 2007 according to daily statistics and the
production of gas rose to 20 millions cubic meter per day, saying " Ministry of Petroleum is planning to preserve this level
of production during the current year".

22/9 GMT 08.09 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Acquisition
I did write,

12/9 GMT 02.28 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX
Interesting trade in the share... Not without cause one could be forced to comment. This company is as stated earlier
very much in play..

You know my view on how "sweet" a bid must be for the company to do the deal...

22/9 GMT 01.31 The Market - Trading
Australia puts a 30 day moratorium on Short Selling - Bad Idea! 30 days in the market is a lifetime.. Also these supposedly
investor friendly actions are going to hurt the system in the long term. For sure regulation has to be clear and concise
and it does lack in this in many areas in many countries but to in retrospect curtail an excisting trading practice is just
political panic and just one more way to increase government control. Trade this market very short...

19/9 GMT 19.53 USA - The Death of Free Market Capitalism
Socialism rears its very ugly head even in the last bastion of Free Market Capitalism... Saving the Finanace Industry is a
very bad idea.. This distorts the natural market forces and says that "never mind if you are a moron the State will bail
you out, that is if the fact that you are a moron comes to the surface".. The message it sends is it´s OK to fail but if
you do, No worries the tax payer will make it right..

Forbidding Short Selling is even worse as it does seem that the Short Sellers had it pretty much right!...

19/9 GMT 10.25 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Morskaya-1

19/9 GMT 10.19 The Market - Trading
Nice uptick on the last day of the week, but I am trading this market very short ie daytrading. Sell into any upturn and end
the week in Cash.. Far too many variables out there to contend with and also even if the US "cleans" up it´s financial
institutions, as was done exactly 20 years ago. The Global Economic downturn is due to much more than just US banks...

18/9 GMT 19.04 Soviet/Russia - A Missile Test
"A Russian submarine on Thursday test-fired a Bulava strategic multiple warhead missile designed to overcome missile defences.
The test comes amid Russian anger at US plans to locate a powerful missile-tracking radar in the Czech Republic as well
interceptor missiles in Poland to combat what Washington calls threats to global security."

18/9 GMT 13.12 The Site
Since the restart of the site it has, as of today seen 10.000.000 Unique Visitors. Thanks..

18/9 GMT 03.31 Oil - Oil Companies

11/9 GMT 03.20 Oil - Oil Companies
With the price of Oil starting to find the Fundamentals again there are huge opportunities starting to open up...
More on this...

A hint would be, look at TYK, LUPE and PXX.. For a start. TYK being the stock with the most resilience in this negative
market.. PXX the most tradeable due to it´s low stock price. Again more on this..

17/9 GMT 23.42 Central Banks - Sweden The Riksbank
In his first comment on the ongoing Global Economic Slowdown and Financial Crisis the chairman of the Riksbank, Stefan Ingves
made the following statement...

17/9 GMT 23.20 Australia - The Global Economic Crisis - Part one the Denial
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says Australia's financial institutions are still in a sound position, and better placed
than many of their international counterparts. Banking stocks dragged the Australian share market down today, as the
bailout of insurance giant American International Group (AIG) by the US Federal Reserve failed to calm global financial
markets. "The advice of the regulators is still that Australia's financial institutions are in sound shape, that the order
of their balance sheets is strong," Mr Rudd told reporters in Canberra. "There is a world of difference between the
circumstances surrounding Australia's financial institutions and those which face financial institutions abroad. "We're not
immune to those difficulties, but we are in a strong position to see Australia through."... Yeah Right.

17/9 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude - 6.3 mmbls (API - 3.5 mmbls)
Gasoline - 3.3 mmbls (API - 2.1 mmbls)
Distillates - 0.9 mmbls (API + 0.7 mmbls)
Natural Gas + 67 Bcf
Total Petroleum Inventories - 11.9 mmbls
Crude Import 8.5 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.131 mmbopd - 0.04 mmbopd
Refineries 77.4% - 0.8%%
Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd - 2.6% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd - 2.7% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 7.6% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 19.9 mmbopd - 4.4% yoy

The Inventory numbers were never going to be pretty with the aftermath of IKE. But again look at the Demand Numbers
- 4.4% on Total Petroleum Demand.... The API stats lean to a build for next week...

16/9 GMT 16.19 USA - AIG - Bankruptcy
Unless the US Fed bails AIG out, this company is going to go into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.. The hope of a
private equity deal is dead, has been since the weekend. Also the infusion of capital needed looks to be much higher
than the previously thought $75 Billion...

16/9 GMT 02.25 Oil - WTI - Brent
With much of the US oil and gas industry in the Gulf of Mexico in re-start mode after IKE and the onshore loading
infrastructure at LOOP slowly returning to normal you would think the contracts would skyrocket but they do not.
Simply because in a crisis on the proportions of what is going on Oil Demand is going to fall even further across the
globe and hence short term infra-structural problems are coming in in second place. Note again that the contracts are
falling along with the Dollar.

15/9 GMT 23.02 USA - AIG - The Next Shoe to Drop.. Updated
Influential insurance industry rating agency A.M. Best has downgraded the ratings of American International Group,
from A+ to A...

Standard & Poor's cuts the rating from AA- to A-..
Fitch Ratings cuts the rating on AIG from AA- to A..

Given not sizeable ratings changes but for AIG rating status is critical and unless the company can get the $75 billion
infusion of capital it will quickly see it´s ratings downgraded by far more than above.. This company is not too big to
fail. Warren Buffett had a look at a deal to save AIG. He passed. So did a lot of other smart money that got a shot at
an AIG financing over the weekend. AIG is now pursuing the greater fools. But, they are running low on capital themselves
which leaves AIG at the edge of liquidation.

15/9 GMT 22.14 Asian Markets
With stock exchanges in South Korea, Japan, Taipei and China having missed all of Mondays fun and games due to Holidays,
the open in a few hours will be interesting..

15/9 GMT 12.25 Oil - WTI - Brent
With WTI at $95.53 and Brent at $92.23 there is the growing question of Margin Calls and Who is on the wrong side of this
equation?...

15/9 GMT 04.44 USA - Lehman Brothers - Chapter 11
Remember Long Term Capital Management which failed in 1998? History...

Lehman Brothers has been around for 158 years, I guess the Guys who ran it earlier were a lot smarter.

15/9 GMT 04.13 USA - The Bank Crisis
I wrote earlier, and as I have pointed out in many postings on the site the Global Economy is in strife and the effect of
the US Banking Crisis will only ripple further across the Globe..

15/2 GMT 03.23 USA - Dr Greenspan - Recession
Former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has stated that the US economy is on the edge of recession and
cautioned conditions would continue to erode until housing prices stabilized. Dr Greenspan, speaking before energy
executives at a CERA conference in Houston also said the US housing market was a long way from bottoming out.

The good Doctor pointed to this as early as April 2007, and with several Fed members both current and past in speeches
over the last year and a bit saying the same thing the smart money listens... I know very many players and analysts want to
see the back of Dr Greenspan like yesterday, but there is very much to be said for experience and seeing further than the
current 24 hour news cycle....

15/9 GMT 02.20 Oil - WTI
The criteria ahead of trade on Monday, US market time. This then with the WTI contract still below $100 in electronic trade,
Brent is at $96.45. Nigeria is one factor with "War" decleared by Mend, the rebel group. Note again the fall in the contracts
despite a falling Dollar..

15/9 GMT 01.41 USA - Merrill Lynch
Merrill Lynch & Co agree to sell itself to Bank of America Corp for roughly $44 billion. $29 a share..

15/9 GMT 01.22 Oil - WTI - Brent
In the extended electronic trade WTI fell to a low of $99.38 this then despite a weaker dollar, please note.. The contracts
are holding below $100 and given the happenings in the US concerning Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch with one of the two
heading into bankruptcy protection, the contracts are not going to head North anytime soon..

12/9 GMT 02.28 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX
Interesting trade in the share... Not without cause one could be forced to comment. This company is as stated earlier very
much in play..

12/9 GMT 01.21 USA - NYMEX - Oil Contracts Extended Trade 14/9
Due to Hurricane IKE CME Globex will hold extended electronic trade on Sunday 14/9...

CME Globex and ClearPort trading sessions for energy products only will begin on Sunday, September 14 at 10:00 a.m. EST,
15.00 GMT with a 9:30 a.m. pre-open on CME Globex. All trades will be for the Monday, September 15 trade date.

11/9 GMT 04.07 Central Banks - Sweden Riksbank - EU ECB - Australia RBA - New Zealand RBNZ
The New Zealand Central Bank goes - 50 basis points down to 7.5%. Because, "The economy is in a recession and inflation
will slow".. In this context does not the Swedish Riksbank look like a Ship of Fools? - Yes they do... Because they are!

11/9 GMT 03.20 Oil - Oil Companies
With the price of Oil starting to find the Fundamentals again there are huge opportunities starting to open up...
More on this...

11/9 GMT 02.48 Oil - WTI - Brent
Falling US Petroleum Inventories, Hurricane Ike, Russia, North Korea with a possible leadership problem, Iran etc...
Still the contracts fall, much is due to the US$ for sure but the fact is that "Gobal Economic Slowdown" is finally starting
to register as just that a fact. The fall in the contracts is as stated many times before not Seasonal. With OPEC in a
politically unsafe place as far as production quotas are concerned the retreat to a Fair Price Level for Oil is only going to
continue. In this China and India ie the super growth economies are not going to be able to bail the world economy out of the
slump because they are now such an integral part of it... So much for the Theory of Decoupling!

10/9 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude - 5.9 mmbls (API - 21.6 mmbls)
Gasoline - 6.5 mmbls (API - 3.0 mmbls)
Distillates - 1.8 mmbls (API + 3.5 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories - 15.2 mmbls
Crude Import 8.6 mmbopd - 1.2 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.117 mmbopd + 0.07 mmbopd
Refineries 78.2% + 10.4%
Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd - 1.2% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd - 0.4% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 7.6% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 20.1 mmbopd - 3.8% yoy

It is all about Demand...

For the first time in months the Distillate demand numbers go negative and it is now an across the board fall in demand.
Ofcourse there are many factors to this but the end result is that US demand for Petroleum and products is down and the
major reason is simply a new economic situation.

The huge spread between the DOE and API numbers is as I have stated before due to the criteria difference in the reporting.

9/9 GMT 21.19 Oil - WTI
$103 was an important support level and with a close of $103.26 looked to hold but with after hour trade down at a low of
$101.74 I doubt the $103 level will hold in open trade. Next big support level is $98.65 with $100 the psychological barrier.

Sell into any rally.. Things are going to get very volatile, very volatile indeed.

8/9 GMT 02.47 Oil - OPEC
OPEC will at it´s meeting on Tuesday hold the current quota or perhaps trim some of the excess production, nothing more.

8/9 GMT 02.43 USA - Fannie - Freddie & Ike - Oil Contracts
With the US Taxpayer again bailing out "Bankers" and Ike possibly a worse Gustav the Crude Contracts will rise in early
trade. Sell into the upturn as it will not last..

6/9 GMT 20.49 Oil - WTI
"$106 an important support level in the short term about to be broken - again." As it was even if the close was just a
smidgen above the support level. As stated before there will be trading ranges along the trend line..

5/9 GMT 09.42 Oil - WTI
$106 an important support level in the short term about to be broken - again.

5/9 GMT 05.38 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - A bid for the Company - Updated GMT 07.57
By the way anyone bidding is going to have to put up a lot of cash for this jewel, compared to the current valuation...
That is not to say that TYK "is not in play".. Because it has been for some time.. As a strange coincedence to this
posting there is an article in the Swedish Daily Dagens Industri quoting Livemint.Com....

ONGC Videsh is again fishing and with the latest bid for Imperial Energy Corporation PLC fresh of the table this rumour
could have legs, but as stated before the offer has to be very "sweet".. 240 to 270 SEK at least. Yet I would deem that
cheap given what is coming down the pipe..

5/9 GMT 03.31 Oil - WTI

4/9 GMT 22.12 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Syria
French Oil major Total has signed three agreements with Syria for both oil and gas. The interesting part is the
production extension agreement. For TYK this just puts more focus on the country and it´s oil industry that really is
not that big when it comes to the foreign oil companies in country...

4/9 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude - 1.9 mmbls (API + 4.2 mmbls)
Gasoline - 1.0 mmbls (API + 1.0 mmbls)
Distillates - 0.4 mmbls (API - 0.15 mmbls)
Natural Gas + 90 Bcf
Total Petroleum Inventories - 3.6 mmbls
Crude Import 9.8 mmbopd - 0.2 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd - 0.5 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.1 mmbopd - 0.04 mmbopd
Refineries 88.7% + 1.4%
Gasoline Demand 9.4 mmbopd - 1.6% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd + 2.7% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 9.3% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 20.3 mmbopd - 3.5% yoy

It´s just a simple fact - Demand! You can have all the inventory you want but if Demand is not consuming it well then you
just have a lot of inventory.... With the Hurricane Season about to peak on 10/9 it bears to watch the API stats some
as they more reflect Crude and products in the system.. Just a note.

4/9 GMT 08.31 Central Banks - Swedens Riksbank - EUS ECB - Australias RBA
The Riksbank raises rates by 25 basis points. Incompetence! There simply is no other word for it. If you have not seen
this global economic slowdown coming for the last year well you have to wonder about the competency of the Board of the
Riksbank. On par with the Bengt Dennis era of trying to protect the currency from market forces in the early 90´s...

3/9 GMT 19.37 Saudi Arabia - Khursaniyah oilfield
Saudi Arabia has started pumping oil from the Khursaniyah oilfield with a potential production peak of about 500,000 bpd.
The oilfield is the largest single increment to global oil production for several years and was initially due to start up
in December. As to how much is actually being pumped up today is less apparent.

3/9 GMT 04.00 USA - SPR - Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Interesting that the first company to ask for a withdrawl from the SPR is CITGO which is the State owned
Venezuelan oil company. CITGO has 1.500 gas stations nation wide and several major refineries... The asked for
amount is 0.25 mmbls.

3/9 GMT 03.26 Oil - Oil Companies
I would again remind all and sundry that most if not all oil companies are and have been for more than 18 months
valued against an oil price of $80 or there abouts... The current correction to Fundamental levels just brings
the oil sector back into the money. $147 was just silly and since $100 it was mostly a joke, good for speculators
in the contracts but little else. $80 is a restart level for oil company stock prices...

3/9 GMT 02.49 Central Banks - Swedens Riksbank - EUS ECB - Australias RBA
The RBA cut as expected it´s rate by 25 basis points and if the Riksbank had any sense it would do the same but alass
Central Bankers are working to a script written 10 to 20 years ago and in an other economic age... The world is a little
bit different today...

The only central bank that has to date got it mostly right is The Fed and this will lead the US out of recession faster
than the rest of the bunch...

3/9 GMT 02.37 Oil - WTI
The contract ended the day at $109.71 down - 5.0%. The intra day low of $105.46 was interesting and within the margin
spoken to before. A close below the support level of $110 is significant and the next major attack will be on $100 after
a time of lateral moves all depending on as we all know other factors. Note please that this sites predictions of how low
the Oil Price is going to go, all other considerations aside is $80 and in this the Saudi Arabian position tends to par
that analysis... WTI $80 is a floor level given todays criteria.

2/9 GMT 04.55 Central Banks - Swedens Riksbank - EUS ECB - Australias RBA
I did write,

3/7 GMT 22.32 Central Banks - Swedens Riksbank - EUS ECB
Swedens Central Bank was founded in 1668 and is the worlds oldest, the ECB was founded in 1998 just prior to the
introduction of the Euro. Two sides of the same coin as it were...

The problem is that age and experience have not in one bit helped the Riksbank in its decision and the ECB young
and naive has not had the time to learn the lessons of history. By raising interest rates by 0.25% both are going
to do more harm than good when the global economy is heading into a very deep downturn. The Riksbank is to add hurt
to injury as it proudly announces that more rate hikes are coming.

The Australian Reserve Bank is likely to cut its cash rate to 7% from 7.25%... And not a month too soon... This then with
annualised GDP growth about to slow to 2.9%...

2/9 GMT 03.12 Oil - WTI
The $110 level which in this is a major support level is going to brake and as the contracts have also broken the 200 MA
well as stated before the Default Bull market for Oil is over... This even in the face of the fact that about 85% of the
US Gulf of Mexico rigs are shut in over the weekend. The US Federal Government promise to release Crude from a well filled
SPR does alleviate the shut in by some large measure. No refiners have yet asked the Government for oil from the SPR to help
replace supplies disrupted by Hurricane Gustav...

Interesting week ahead... With WTI heading for the $105 to $109 levels..

30/8 GMT 03.42 Climate Change - The North West Passage
The Northwest Passage is a sea route through the Arctic Ocean, along the northern coast of North America via waterways
amidst the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. And due to Naturally ocurring
Climate Change the waterway is again as in 2000 about to be open to transit from the Atlantic to the Pacific. This has
ofcourse been going on for millennia but it was in 1906 it was given a note when Roald Amundsen traversed it in the ship
Gjøa...

29/8 GMT 01.57 USA - Labor Day Weekend
Monday 1 September is a Holiday.

28/8 GMT 15.43 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Syria - WT-276
With oil shows during the drill and a total payzone of about 140 meters through three different structures the upcoming
test will be very interesting.

28/8 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Natural Gas + 102 Bcf against the expected build of about + 85 Bcf... Natural gas prices have been falling and this
report on it´s own is market negative.

28/8 GMT 02.01 Russia
Will the real Soviet/Russia please stand up...

Russia has finally reverted to it´s Default Mode ie one of Paranoia, Distrust, Nationalism and in no small part a Jealousy
of everyone who are not Russian. The Russian State is and has for a long time been Paranoid about the world at large
and felt a great Distrust against foreigners and their ultimate intentions and in this mix add Jealousy which inspires a
competitive nature but not of the purest kind but rather the darker side of "So you think you are better than Me!"...
Nationalism is the end product and also the basis for all of the above because if there is something there is no lack of
in Russia it´s Nationalism. Russians have always and want still to be a great nation a strong nation a feared nation and if
that entails a dictator or two well so be it. Do not forget this is a country that still has a sizeable amount of the
population who hark back to the days of Stalin. Or so it can be argued....

Much of this may be true, and well it is up to your interpretation but the fact remains that the current leadership in
the Kreml actually is speaking to the people of Russia and for whatever reason they are listening and are for the most part
behind the actions of the rulers. The latest comments made by the Prime Minister and President and other advisors and
analysts all sound very much the same. Disregard the WTO and NATO, the EU is a puppet of the US etc..

We are not afraid of anything, including the prospect of a new Cold War
- Russian President Dmitry Medvedev August 26, 2008

No state has the right to intervene militarily in the territory of another state simply because there are individuals
there with a passport issued by that state or who are nationals of the state. Attempts to apply such a doctrine have
plunged Europe into war in the past. And we have reason to remember how Hitler used this very doctrine little more than
half a century ago to undermine and attack substantial parts of central Europe.
- Sweden´s Foreign Minister Carl Bildt August 10, 2008

From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic, an "Iron Curtain" has descended across the Continent.
Behind that line lie all the capitals of the ancient states of Central and Eastern Europe. Warsaw, Berlin, Prague,
Vienna, Budapest, Belgrade, Bucharest and Sofia, all these famous cities and the populations around them lie in what
I must call the Soviet sphere, and all are subject in one form or another, not only to Soviet influence but to a
very high and, in many cases, increasing measure of control from Moscow.
- Winston S. Churchill March 5, 1946.

History... Lets not repeat it!

27/8 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude - 0.1 mmbls (API - 3.5 mmbls)
Gasoline - 1.2 mmbls (API - 2.1 mmbls)
Distillates +- 0.0 mmbls (API + 0.7 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.3 mmbls
Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd - 1.0 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.4 mmbopd + 0.6 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.13 mmbopd - 0.50 mmbopd
Refineries 87.3% + 1.6%
Gasoline Demand 9.4 mmbopd - 1.6% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd + 2.2% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 6.9% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 20.2 mmbopd - 3.6% yoy

27/8 GMT 01.44 Oil - Russia - Iran - Neka-Jask Pipeline
There is movement here in the now more than one year old project to pump 1.0 mmbopd through a 970 Km long trans Iranian
pipeline with now it seems Gazprom more in the main part of the picture. Kazakhstan is set to pump more of its growing
oil production through Iran to Western Markets. The Iranian tariff rates in this would be far lower than those of the
competing pipeline vendors..

27/8 GMT 01.10 EIA - US Petroleum Demand
US domestic Petroleum Demand, was 19.55 mmbopd in June. Down from 20.70 mmbopd June 2007.

27/8 GMT 01.07 Oil - WTI
Hurricane Gustav and the Geopolitical risk premium with the USA and Russia about to play a game of Navy Chicken in
the Black Sea only keeps the contracts at the current level.. The base for a bull market is well gone. Slowly the demand
situation is also being aired by official agencies as demand is falling. For the long time follower of this site this
is far from news.

September is the Peak Hurricane Season so the contracts will trade in a range with $113 now a strong support level even if
it has been tested and beaten but short term $113 is a very important level. If all of the above ie Storms, Russians and
other Geopols abate then the contracts will head further down... With NATO and Russia on a collision course you would
expect the contracts to see more upturn. My thought is that the Real Global Economic Slowdown is far outweighing the new
Soviet/Russian power play, for the moment... Note the RSI, below 50 still...

22/8 GMT 02.24 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX
"Gazprom wants to enter North America, just one small thing - North America is not just anywhere... Pretty much all of
the Oil Market is spoken for by Canadian and US companies and to get a foot in you need to buy your way in"...

21/8 GMT 22.21 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Updated
"The stock jumped + 5.3% in Stockholm and + 5.7% in Canada on fairly good volume for both exchanges. As to why well
the scuttlebutt is",

That there are rumours of interest again in the company. These are far from confirmed and hence why I only now update
the earlier comment, yet the strongest factor behind the climb for the stock is the real lack of action after the report.
A fair price today is in the region of $30 rumours or not... The rumour does however touch on something I have pointed
to before ie the Russians need to feed - Gazprom... Syria a country "close" to home and with its prominence as a piece in
the ongoing gigantic military/resource/political game is ofcourse of prime interest..

21/8 GMT 22.19 Oil - WTI
Close above $121 on Geopoliticals and the falling Dollar which are pretty much the same thing. The one really interesting
question does have to be - Where does the storm called Fay go next?

21/8 GMT 01.52 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX
The stock jumped + 5.3% in Stockholm and + 5.7% in Canada on fairly good volume for both exchanges. As to why well
the scuttlebutt is that... More on this.

20/8 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 9.4 mmbls (API + 12.4 mmbls)
Gasoline - 6.2 mmbls (API - 2.0 mmbls)
Distillates + 0.5 mmbls (API + 0.3 mmbls)
Total Petroleum Inventories + 8.2 mmbls
Crude Import 11.0 mmbopd + 1.3 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.8 mmbopd -+ 0.0 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.73 mmbopd + 0.60 mmbopd
Refineries 85.7% - 0.2%
Gasoline Demand 9.4 mmbopd - 1.6% yoy
Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd + 3.3% yoy
Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 6.2% yoy
Total Petroleum Demand 20.2 mmbopd - 3.0% yoy

It´s about the Demand Picture... Crude Imports break the barrier. Low Refinery numbers hits the Gasoline Inventory but
demand for the product is also down so.. A market negative report along the trend... Total Petroleum Demand 20.2 mmbopd
last year it was 20.9 mmbopd.. Check the API stats.

19/8 GMT 01.29 Oil - WTI
Iran puts a dummy satellite into space, Russia is still not out of Georgia... The oil price reacts to a storm called Fay
for about two hours then heads back down.. The basis for a bullish oil market is gone with demand falling on a global scale
and again the world not running out of oil.. I know I sound like a broken record but there you are. $110, $108, $105 etc..
The $110 level is one of great resistance but when broken and it´s not If but When the rest of the trip down will be as
stated earlier.. Geopoliticals notwithstanding..

18/8 GMT 02.34 Oil - WTI
Look for an upturn after close on Friday, but very temporary as the $110 level is the close term target.
Geopoliticals notwithstanding..

18/8 GMT 00.17 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - Q2 Report - Comment
A new TYK in the making... Todays valuation is just silly.

18/8 GMT 00.14 Oil - Exploration
In the last 25 years of Oil Exploration the last 5 years have seen more finds in total than for the whole preceeding
20 years... this then much due to technology. Technological advancement is one of those small insignificant details that
the Church of Peak Oil tends to omit in its sermons...

17/8 GMT 23.46 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Q2 Report - Comment
"The stock price shows strength in a period of travails for the sector, the up-coming Q2 Report will I belive more than
lend credence to that strength"... You know this is just going keep getting better and better....

17/8 GMT 23.10 Russia - Military Invations
US Presidential elections are always held during an Olympic year and of more interest is that Soviet/Russia seems to like
to invade and occupy countries along the same timeline. Hungary 1956, Tcheckoslovakia 1968, Afghanistan 1978,
Georgia 2008... Europe 2012?

17/8 GMT 22.53 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Q2 Report - Updated
I did write, "This will be a forward looking report with much substance as the company is far larger than its
current share price." And I stand by that comment all the way..

Today LUPE has two major problems as I see them judging by the reactions to the report. The company with currently
54 licenses world wide is perhaps too diversified and then there is Russia.. In this building future reserves costs
money and this ofcourse has an effect on the bottom line even if this actually was better than expected. For every
100.000 barrels of oil LUPE produces it is replacing 184.000 barrels through exploration and well enhancment and
here Luno and Lagansky are key. One could argue that the company should sell all other assests and concentrate on
the largest find in the North Sea over the last ten years and the as yet not official major find in the Caspian, ie
a new restart as was done with Lundin Oil. The market would have less parrameters to adjust to and as is the case
with for example TYK easier company reports to read. Yet this would go against the whole concept for Lundin Petroleum,
ie to grow through exploration and building oil reserves on a global basis. This strategy has in the past also given
the company problems when it comes to valuation and understanding. I long said sell the minority asset in the Sudan
and did change my stance on this but with little real conviction and with two drills with negative outcome it could be
apt to return to the long held view yet with todays criteria it is a bit late in the game.

54 licenses in a vast geographic spread is a liability but it is also the companys strength even if this is not always
easy for the market to see. The North Sea ventures are a case in point as when the company turned it´s eyes to this some
say mature oil bearing region not much was made of it but as it turns out it is a critical part of todays production..

The biggest problem today is Russia! There are many investors who will not think of investing in Russia or in companies
with a connection to Russia.. And when Russia behaves the way it has done and it seems will do well then the Russian
connection is a huge liability. TNK-BP and Yukos etc other resource plays made by the Russian state simply scares
investors and with good cause. Yet as I have written earlier the Lundins have a far better "finger on the pulse" than
most foreign companies in Russia.

The simple conclusion is that the valuation of LUPE as a whole is smaller than the sum of the individual parts and is
therefore heavily undervalued today and has been so for a long time. A short term strategy to enhance shareholder
value would be to down-size the company, again... A possibility yet not one that I envisage anytime soon, yet...
The more likelly outcome is that shareholders will have to console themselfs with the fact that the company is as stated
undervalued and that there are a few key components that can turn this around very quickly, Lagansky and the North Sea..

13/8 GMT 22.24 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Q2 Report
I did write, "This will be a forward looking report with much substance as the company is far larger than its
current share price." And I stand by that comment all the way..

More on this...

19/3 GMT 19.15 The Commodity Crash - Oil
Hedge funds and speculators are getting the "Hell out of Dodge"... WTI $5 down despite a bullish inventory report...
I have said it aint going to be pretty!

19/3 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 0.2 mmbls (API + 2.5 mmbls)
Gasoline - 3.5 mmbls (API - 0.8 mmbls)
Distillates - 2.9 mmbls (API - 1.5 mmbls)
Crude Import 9.5 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.3 mmbopd
Refineries 83.8% - 1.2%
Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories - 2.9 mmbls

The input into the SPR continues and storage is almost at full capacity as I pointed to earlier. Gasoline retreats on lower
Refinery Runs also the Crack Spreads are a factor... Despite the fall in Gasoline storage levels they are still 10% above last
year on falling demand...

I am looking for further builds going forward, large builds actually. The key is the Import numbers which were down 10% last
week. These factors could be the instigators for selling off the to date "safe" Crude contracts...

19/3 GMT 01.55 USA - The Fed - A Statement
As a Pure Market Capitalist I detest the other than Rate Intervention by The US Fed and any other Institution. If a business
is rotten then let it die as should really be the case for Bear Stearns, yet my point of view is part of another century
I know. Socialism is rampant today... However I do hope that history and well just plain sensible economics will prevail and
let any future dead horses remain dead.... Yet I do have to applaud JP Morgan for playing The Fed like a violin and picking
up Bears for a song..

19/3 GMT 00.40 USA - The Fed
OK it came in at 75 basis points and language...

Yet I would be very weary about putting to much faith into this move as it´s all about Mortgage Rates.
Recent history as a guide, The Fed´s rate cutting will have little or no effect on long term loans to homeowners.
It's all because banks continue to be reticent about lending money and investors are especially leery of mortgage backed
securities, the market for which has been shattered by hundreds of thousands of defaults during the subprime mortgage collapse.
Instead of lending money, banks have historically used newfound liquidity brought on by rate cuts and Fed term auctions to boost
their balance sheets and pay dividends.

Mortgage Rates have even gone up a bit following some Fed cuts since September 2007....

19/3 GMT 00.01 China - GDP - Inflation - Stagflation
The People's Bank of China announced Tuesday it would increase the amount of money commercial banks must keep in reserve,
just hours after Premier Wen Jiabao warned inflation was a top concern. The PBC said in a statement the bank reserve ratio
would rise half a percentage point to 15.5% from March 25, in yet another bid to implement tight monetary policies and cool
the economy.

Inflation in February ran at 8.7% year on year... And ofcourse the Olympics are not going to inflate prices.... Yeah right.
China is a ticking Inflation Time Bomb....

18/3 GMT 19.21 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
I expect,

Crude + 4.0 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 1.2 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates - 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Natural Gas - 78 Bcf
Crude Import 10.4 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.11 mmbopd
Refineries 85.0%
Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories + 3.5 mmbls

18/3 GMT 12.09 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX

18/3 GMT 11.43 Tata Motors Limited - TTM:NYSE
Makers of the Tatanano... Tata Motors has signed a $3 billion bridging loan with Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase
for its purchase of Ford Motor Co´s Jaguar and Land Rover brands...

Tata Motors Company Site

18/3 GMT 02.17 USA - The Fed
100 basis points is in the market, there is a 22% chance of 125 points.. The Fed needs to act and act hard.

18/3 GMT 02.15 USD Index - CRB Index

18/3 GMT 01.57 USA - MF Global
The next shoe to drop...

Companies that clear trades, like MF Global, are exposed to counterparty risk if their clients can't make good on
their part of a trade and MF Global has to step in and purchase the underlying securities at a loss. They could also
get nailed if clients start withdrawing funds out of fear the company won't be around to do business.

Look for more of this....

18/3 GMT 01.48 The Commodity Crash
It´s coming...

Despite the fact that the US Dollar fell again a lot of commodities also fell. Not a good sign. Crude is driven by
speculation and not by any Peak Oil nonsense or Demand Supply BS it is driven by speculation as are many commodities,
when this ends - well let´s just say it aint pretty.

14/3 GMT 01.16 USD Index - WTI

14/3 GMT 00.27 OPEC
OPEC is pumping well above its own quota of 29.673 mmbopd to the tune of 32.330 mmopd...
That is 2.66 mmbopd above the current quota!

12/3 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 6.2 mmbls (API - 0.5 mmbls)
Gasoline + 1.7 mmbls (API - 3.7 mmbls)
Distillates - 1.2 mmbls (API - 2.7 mmbls)
Natural Gas - 86 Bcf
Crude Import 10.5 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.75 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.13 mmbopd
Refineries 85.0% - 0.9%
Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.6 mmbls

A market negative report... In fact a very Bearish Report yet in this market it is the Dollar and Hedgefund buying
that is running the show... As much as 80% of the daily trade in contracts is buying by Hedgefunds...

12/3 GMT 13.11 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out at GMT 14.30
I expect,

Crude + 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates - 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Crude Import 9.8 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd
Refineries 86.0%
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories - 1.5 mmbls

Bit of a tricky week to call..

12/3 GMT 02.06 Japan - GDP
GDP 3.5% year on year... This then lower than expected and the 2007 Q4 growth was 0.9% against an expected 2.3%..

11/3 GMT 19.35 USA - The Fed - Central Banks
Nothing like a bit of Government Intervention to kick up the market. This however is an artificial Bear Rally - "Sucker Rally"
and the best way to make money from it is to sell into it.

The US Fed started it´s rate change policy about 6 months ago and since then the DOW has lost about 1.500 points...
Another point is that this infusion of Liquidity will not show up in the market for another 2 to 3 weeks and even then
the question is how much of this banks and other institutions actually will pass on to those who need the Cash...

11/3 GMT 09.26 China - GDP - Inflation - Stagflation
CPI in February 8.7% year on year... Highest since 1996 when it was 8.9%.

Pork prices soared 63% from a year earlier, vegetables climbed 46%, and edible oil rose 41%.
Exports were up only 6.5%, the lowest rate in six years. The Stagflation threshold for China is about 8% inflation
and a GDP growth rate of well below 5%.

10/3 GMT 23.02 Oil - The Market - The Price - The Bubbel
Fundamentals when it comes to the price of oil are out the window... The bubble just keeps building and as all bubbles this
one will burst. The problem is that it will take a huge amount of the market along with it down as commodities in general
are today driven by the fall of the US$ and thus hence the price of Crude.

Large funds and other institutional investors are heading into the Crude Market on a basis of nothing else than that it
is the best game in town - for now. When these players pull out well you know what happens. WTI $108 is a nosebleed level
and as stated before the fundamentals just aren´t there.... Will Oil cruise further North? Well yes because that is the way
the market is heading....

10/3 GMT 22.39 USD Index - WTI

10/3 GMT 10.13 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Nyal-1
A comment would be that every drill gives the operator more information than that which was had before. It is only when you
get source rock to the surface that you know for sure which strata you drilled through. A wild-cat is a stab in the dark yet
the potential for a hit in this Basin is better than average as previous drills have shown.

10/3 GMT 08.17 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Nyal-1
A dry and now abandoned well. The early gas shows at about 1.400 meters down to the final depth of 2.363 meters were just
that "gas shows"...

A disappointing result for sure!

10/3 GMT 04.49 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX

10/3 GMT 03.55 Iran - Oil Discovery
Iran discovers 2.2 Billion barrel oil layer...

A senior Iranian oil official says a new oil layer with a capacity of 2.2 Billion barrels has been discovered in the Azadegan
oilfield. "The new layer was discovered when the seventh exploration well was drilled in the Azadegan oilfield," - according to
Mahmud Mohaddes, the National Iranian Oil Company's Director for exploration.

Iran is planning to develop another oil layer with a capacity of 1 Billion barrels, which had been previously discovered in
the Azadegan oilfield. The Azadegan oilfield, which is located 80 kilometers west of the southern Iranian city of Ahvaz in the
oil-rich Khuzestan Province, has proven oil reserves of 33 Billion barrels, with good prospects for additional capacity, taking
the total to 40 Billion barrels.

9/3 GMT 21.51 China - GDP - Inflation
Chinas PPI rose by 6.6% in February up from 6.1% in January. PPI has risen for the last seven months.
CPI for February is expected to rise 8%... Figures are out on 11/3..

Note that about 40% of Chinas GDP is based on export income, 30% is domestic consumption. China is in this fragile as the US
now is in Recession and the EU is slowing considerably.... Welcome to the Global Economy!

7/3 GMT 12.39 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX
It´s just Fundamentals... With a Private Placement in the offering and a fairly weak market for the oil sector. TYK is the
Terminator on good volumes. It´s just a matter of Fundamentals.

7/3 GMT 11.00 USD Index - WTI

5/3 GMT 17.30 OECD - Real GDP

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Fourth quarter
2007 2008 2009
Australia 3,3 5,0 4,0 4,0 3,8 5,2 4,3 3,5 2,2 4,0 3,4 3,2 3,0 2,5 4,3 3,5 3,0 4,5 3,2
Austria 2,4 2,5 2,2 2,3 2,1 3,5 3,6 3,0 1,0 0,7 1,0 2,3 2,3 3,1 3,3 2,5 2,5 3,0 2,5
Belgium 2,2 3,2 2,4 1,0 3,5 1,8 3,3 3,9 0,7 1,4 1,0 2,8 2,0 2,9 2,6 1,9 2,0 2,2 2,0
Canada 2,6 4,8 2,8 1,6 4,2 4,1 5,5 5,2 1,8 2,9 1,9 3,1 3,1 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,7 2,9 2,5
Czech Republic .. 2,6 5,9 4,2 -0,7 -0,8 1,3 3,7 2,5 1,9 3,6 4,6 6,5 6,4 6,1 4,6 4,9 6,3 3,6
Denmark 1,8 5,5 3,1 2,8 3,2 2,2 2,6 3,5 0,7 0,5 0,4 2,1 3,1 3,5 2,0 1,7 0,8 2,0 1,2
Finland 1,2 3,6 3,8 3,6 6,2 5,3 4,0 5,0 2,6 1,6 2,0 3,7 2,9 4,9 4,2 2,9 2,6 2,6 3,3
France 2,2 2,2 2,3 1,1 2,2 3,6 3,2 4,0 1,8 1,1 1,1 2,3 1,7 2,2 1,9 1,8 2,0 2,1 1,7
Germany 2,8 2,7 2,0 1,0 1,9 1,8 1,9 3,5 1,4 0,0 -0,2 0,6 1,0 3,1 2,6 1,8 1,6 2,0 1,6
Greece 1,3 2,0 2,1 2,4 3,6 3,4 3,4 4,5 4,5 3,9 4,9 4,7 3,7 4,3 4,1 3,7 3,9 4,4 4,2
Hungary .. 2,9 1,5 1,3 4,6 4,9 4,2 5,2 4,1 4,4 4,2 4,8 4,1 3,9 1,8 2,6 3,8 1,7 2,9
Iceland 2,1 3,6 0,1 4,8 4,8 6,3 4,1 4,3 3,9 0,1 2,4 7,7 7,1 4,2 1,2 1,0 1,6 1,0 1,2
Ireland 3,9 5,8 9,6 8,3 11,7 8,6 10,9 9,4 5,9 6,4 4,3 4,3 5,9 5,7 5,2 2,9 4,2 5,0 4,1
Italy 2,3 2,3 2,9 0,6 2,0 1,3 1,9 3,8 1,7 0,3 0,1 1,0 0,2 1,9 1,8 1,3 1,3 1,1 1,3
Japan 3,7 1,1 2,0 2,7 1,6 -2,0 -0,1 2,9 0,2 0,3 1,4 2,7 1,9 2,2 1,9 1,6 1,8 1,3 1,7
Korea 8,4 8,5 9,2 7,0 4,7 -6,9 9,5 8,5 3,8 7,0 3,1 4,7 4,2 5,0 4,9 5,2 5,1 5,4 5,0
Luxembourg 6,1 3,8 1,4 1,5 6,0 6,6 8,4 8,0 2,7 4,1 2,1 5,0 5,0 6,0 5,2 4,9 4,1 .. ..
Mexico 2,4 4,5 -6,2 5,1 6,8 4,9 3,9 6,6 -0,2 0,8 1,4 4,2 2,8 4,8 3,0 3,6 4,3 3,4 3,5
Netherlands 2,8 3,0 3,1 3,4 4,3 3,9 4,7 3,9 1,9 0,1 0,3 2,2 1,5 3,0 3,0 2,4 2,3 2,8 2,4
New Zealand 1,9 6,2 4,2 3,3 3,1 0,7 4,6 3,8 2,4 4,8 4,3 3,8 2,7 1,8 3,4 1,9 2,1 2,7 1,9
Norway 2,9 5,1 4,2 5,1 5,4 2,7 2,0 3,3 2,0 1,5 1,0 3,9 2,7 2,8 3,4 3,6 2,4 3,6 3,3
Poland .. 5,3 7,0 6,2 7,1 5,0 4,5 4,3 1,2 1,4 3,9 5,3 3,6 6,2 6,5 5,6 5,2 .. ..
Portugal 3,2 1,0 4,3 3,6 4,2 4,8 3,9 3,9 2,0 0,8 -0,7 1,5 0,5 1,3 1,8 2,0 2,2 2,0 2,1
Slovak Republic .. 6,2 5,8 6,9 5,7 3,7 0,3 0,7 3,2 4,1 4,2 5,4 6,0 8,3 9,3 7,3 6,9 8,4 7,3
Spain 2,9 2,4 2,8 2,4 3,9 4,5 4,7 5,0 3,6 2,7 3,1 3,3 3,6 3,9 3,8 2,5 2,4 3,3 2,3
Sweden 1,5 3,8 4,1 1,4 2,5 3,6 4,3 4,4 1,2 2,0 1,8 3,7 2,9 4,5 3,4 3,2 2,6 3,5 2,8
Switzerland 2,0 1,2 0,4 0,6 2,1 2,6 1,3 3,6 1,2 0,4 -0,2 2,5 2,4 3,2 2,7 2,0 2,0 2,6 1,8
Turkey 5,4 -5,5 7,2 7,0 7,5 3,1 -4,7 7,4 -7,5 7,9 5,8 8,9 7,4 6,1 5,1 5,8 6,3 .. ..
United Kingdom 2,4 4,3 2,9 2,8 3,1 3,4 3,0 3,8 2,4 2,1 2,8 3,3 1,8 2,8 3,1 2,0 2,4 2,9 1,7
United States 3,3 4,0 2,5 3,7 4,5 4,2 4,4 3,7 0,8 1,6 2,5 3,6 3,1 2,9 2,2 2,0 2,2 2,6 1,6
Euro area 2,5 2,5 2,5 1,4 2,6 2,7 2,9 4,0 1,9 0,9 0,8 1,8 1,6 2,9 2,6 1,9 2,0 2,2 1,9
Total OECD 3,1 3,3 2,6 3,0 3,6 2,6 3,3 4,0 1,1 1,6 1,9 3,1 2,6 3,1 2,7 2,3 2,4 2,6 2,1

OECD Xls File

5/3 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude - 3.1 mmbls (API - 1.6 mmbls)
Gasoline + 1.7 mmbls (API + 1.3 mmbls)
Distillates - 2.4 mmbls (API - 4.8 mmbls)
Natural Gas 135 Bcf
Crude Import 9.4 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.17 mmbopd
Refineries 85.9% + 1.2%
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories - 4.5 mmbls

Contrary to most analysts expectations Crude fell for the first time in 7 weeks. The higher Refinery runs congruent
with lower Imports certainly helped that number. Gasoline again saw a build and we are now at 14 year highs in storage.
A market neutral to positive report.

5/3 GMT 09.58 China - GDP - Inflation
Chinas GDP 2007 was 11.7% with an annual inflation rate of 4.8%. For 2008 GDP is expected to grow by 8% with the same
inflation rate... Something you have to question as the inflation rate in January alone came in at 7%....

4/3 GMT 20.49 OPEC - Meeting 5/3
A reduction in production is a non-starter. To hold at current levels is the safe bet, yet given certain signals from
the members that matter an increase of about 0.5 mmbopd is not totally outside the realm of possibility....

4/3 GMT 19.25 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
I expect,

Crude + 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 0.5 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates - 1.2 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.76 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.19 mmbopd
Refineries 84.7%
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.9 mmbls

4/3 GMT 13.25 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Private Placement
Well I was wrong about the need for further financing from the market... No two ways about it.

TYK keep it in-house of sorts with a PP of 5 million shares at the stock price of 93 SEK.
This then brings the total fully diluted outstanding shares in the company to 64.442.446.

4/3 GMT 05.51 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Nyal-1
Definitely a "good feeling" about this one...'

4/3 GMT 05.40 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Q4
"We are expecting 2008 to be an exciting year as we aim to surpass the 20.000 bopd milestone in gross production."

The rest is just a case of - Read the Reports and Statements! 20.000 bopd I belive is going to look very conservative going
forward.. Also there is the case of the Suitors...

4/3 GMT 05.02 Australia - Climate Change Hysteria
A cool and wet summer leads into a positive winter season for last years drought stricken farmers...

I think it is called - Natural Global Climatic Variation. It´s only been going on for some 4.6 BILLION YEARS!!!

3/3 GMT 22.06 CRB -

3/3 GMT 19.18 OPEC - OPEC-Speak
Saudi Oil Minister - Oil Prices won’t fall under $60-$70...

OPEC-Speak much like US Fed-Speak has to be viewed in the context - Why would they say that...

“If you take into account all the subsidies involved in the production of a barrel of biofuels, I doubt whether
anyone could make money from that with a price lower than $60 or $70,”

Think on this awhile..

3/3 GMT 18.11 Iran - US Military Strike - UN
UN approves new sanctions on Iran...

The UN Security Council has voted in favour of new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme.
Fourteen of the council's 15 members voted for a fresh round of punitive measures in addition to those
imposed in 2006 and 2007. Indonesia abstained.

3/3 GMT 03.02 OPEC - OPEC-Speak
Saudi Oil Minister - Oil Prices won’t fall under $60-$70...

Oil prices won’t fall below $60 to $70 a barrel as this is the minimum level, at which alternative fuels are economically
viable, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in remarks published on Sunday by Algeria’s APS news agency.

“From now there’s a line below which prices won’t fall,” the official agency quoted him as saying in an interview with
Petrostrategies magazine. He said this involved “the marginal cost of production of alternative fuels, whether that’s
biofuels or tar sands”, which had a threshold “between $60 and $70”, APS reported. “If you take into account all the subsidies
involved in the production of a barrel of biofuels, I doubt whether anyone could make money from that with a price lower than
$60 or $70,” he was quoted as saying, referring to the price of a barrel of oil. He said that level signaled a line “under
which the level of prices could not go”.

US crude closed at $101.84 a barrel on Friday and London Brent crude finished at $100.10. Oil at these prices has piled
pressure on OPEC to refrain from cutting output, when it meets in Vienna on March 5.

APS said Naimi challenged the “Peak Oil” theory favored by conservative energy analysts, who predict that world supply of oil,
including unconventional oil, will peak in about 2010. Naimi told Petrostrategies that continued exploration investment around
the world would prevent the rapid exhaustion of supply. He cited the example of Sauid Arabia, whose subsoil was “not entirely
explored,” APS reported. He estimated that Saudi Arabia, thanks to continued exploration, might be able to find another
200 billion barrels of oil to add to its reserves. But there was no justification for building output capacity
beyond levels already planned, he said.

State oil firm Saudi Aramco aims to lift supply capacity to 12 million barrels per day, enough to meet 14% of current world
demand, by the end of 2009. Naimi said last year that further expansion of Saudi production capacity may not be needed beyond
2009 as consumers grow more energy efficient and switch to alternative fuels. Saudi Arabia holds the world’s largest oil reserves
and is expanding supply capacity to meet rising world demand at a time, when higher costs are leading to delays and cancellations
across the oil and gas industry.

28/2 GMT 03.02 Oil - WTI

27/2 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 3.2 mmbls (API - 1.7 mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.3 mmbls (API - 1.0 mmbls)
Distillates - 2.5 mmbls (API - 1.2 mmbls)
Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.4 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd
Refineries 84.7% + 1.2%
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.7 mmbls

A market negative report...

Please note that the US Department of Energy is currently adding about 70.000 barrels per day to the
Strategic Petroleum Reserve, despite crude prices topping $100 a barrel. The SPR should reach a record
700 million barrels of oil by the end of March. Plans are underway to expand the SPR to 1 billion barrels...
Gasoline stocks are at their highest level for 14 years.......

26/2 GMT 23.09 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
I expect,

Crude + 4.8 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 0.4 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates - 2.5 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.4 mmbopd
Refineries 83.2%
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories - 2.6 mmbls

26/2 GMT 08.28 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Nyal-1
The Upper to Lower Cretaceous sandstone reservoirs in which there have been about 20 Oil and Gas discoveries...

I am getting that "feel-good" feeling on this one..

26/2 GMT 07.58 Australia - Oil and Natural Gas Production
Australian Oil and Gas production last year was 467 mmboe. That is + 4.6% higher than in 2006 and just short of the ATH of
474 mmboe from 2000. Australian oil production increased by + 3.2% to 121 mmbls, the first increase since 2000, and production
is set to increase again this year. Australian Natural Gas production came in at a record 1.6 trillion cubic feet
2007, + 6.0% since 2006.

The East coast regions of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania saw production increases
by + 12.5%. These are also the most populated regions of the country. Australia imports about 47% of it´s energy needs...

25/2 GMT 08.00 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX
Swedbank Robur Fund and Folksam have bought a further part of LUPE to the tune of a combined 5.1% of the outstanding shares.
So much for Ethics....

Not without Cause though... Not without Cause.

25/2 GMT 07.25 Cuba - Castro
Will the real Castro please stand up..!?

Let´s see.. your in power for 49 years and 50 is a big number for most folk. Why leave your position of power just a year
shy of the big one.. Well most likely because you are Dead or fairly close to Dead. In 1989 the rulers of the Soviet Union
clung to their last vestige of power in fairly much the same way Cuba´s power elite are doing today. Raul and a gathering of
Septuagenarians are with tooth and nail hanging on to power. Why? Well I belive Fidel Castro if not already dead is close to
the end. I could care less about a dying communist dictator or a live one for that matter.
How does this then interest this site?

Cuba has a huge potential when it comes to Oil!....

23/2 GMT 02.57 CRB Index

21/2 GMT 19.51 On Peak Oil
Nothing wrong with the theory as it is a fact that any finite resource has a beginning a peak and an end. Basic laws of
mathematics, physics.... The problem with this theory is that it has become a religion for some and a vechicle for own
agendas by others. The Man Made Global Warming Crowd have hijacked the theory and incorporated into their own delusionary
view of the world ie that a planet that is 4.6 Billion Years old has never seen Climate Change before humans came along....

Industry is not excluded from this in that to promote the theory that the world is running out of oil is good business..
If you are seeking funding for a project to get energy out of squirrel droppings or cow burps or as yet completly uneconomic
wind power then call on peak oil and the money will pour in, especially from tax subsidies to make wind power viable and other
things like ethanol become cool yet totally misguided politics. Just the Political Lobby´s use of Peak Oil as an argument is
worth a long posting all of it´s own..

For oil companies the peak oil buzz is great.. Basic "drug-dealer" sales technique get the guy hooked and then keep telling
him supply is tight... Hell the world has been running out of oil since the first oil was found. In the early 70´s a canvas
of 500 economists showed that they thought the mean price of oil by the year 2000 would be $98 and that oil would run out
by 2025...

The Stone Age did not end for a lack of Stones and the Oil Age will end long before oil runs out...

Iraq for instance has bearly scraped the surface of it´s oil reserves especially in the Western Desert on the border with
Syria another country with great potential. Iran has huge amounts of oil in the ground and even more Natural Gas, it just
dosen´t have the infrastructure to get it to market. Africa has huge potential but unfortunatly the people who live their
are too preoccupied with killing eachother to look for the resources that abound in the ground. Brazil with probably more
oil than you can poke a stick at... The Arctic regions like the Barents Sea... Etc...

Simmons, Campbell and the crowd at ASPO etc have all written extensivly about Peak Oil but for some these writings have
become religion. In this the Peak Oil Sect is blind to the fact that technology and development happens! Deep Sea drilling
has come a long long way and new techniques are applied every day. Oil is being found in many places around the world....
Yet it has to be said Peak Oil is Good Business.... However if you are of the belife that you know Peak Oil happened on
say the 15th of August 2005, well then you are not taking the little pink pills your Doctor gave you....

The point being none on this planet really knows how much oil there is in the ground. On this keep in mind that most oil fields
are "dry" after only about 30% of the Oil in Place has been extracted. Hence there is 70% still in the ground. New techniques
like Fracturing and Horisontal drills are increasing the yield harvested from current and old fields. In this if the average
percentage of extraction from the worlds current oil fields can be increased by 5%, well then that adds the amount of recoverable
oil equal to one Saudi Arabia.... Well worth a try...

The Stone Age did not end for a lack of Stones and the Oil Age will end long before oil runs out.....

21/2 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 4.2 mmbls (API + 5.5 mmbls)
Gasoline + 1.1 mmbls (API - 3.0 mmbls)
Distillates - 4.5 mmbls (API - 5.8 mmbls)
Natural Gas - 127 Bcf
Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.83 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.38 mmbopd
Refineries 83.5% - 1.6%
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories - 3.7 mmbls

Refiners are simply refining less product as supplies are ample and for Gasoline building well above the average for
year on year. US Refiners are adjusting to the coming slowdown. The build in Gasoline and Crude make this a market
negative report. Heading into the spring-summer period these are the two to watch.

21/2 GMT 02.32 CRB Index

21/2 GMT 01.23 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Year End Report
I did call it somber and well it was as far as the production numbers go, yet with the year the company has had...
All you had to do was do the maths... Wan Machar-1 Sudan is imminent..

You just got to have a little faith. 2008 will be a Very Interesting Year...

21/2 GMT 01.19 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX
All things considered and from where I am sitting I can see absolutely no need for the company to take in further
financing from the market place at this time...

19/2 GMT 07.29 Castro Resigns
There is a rumour that the Dictator actually is Dead. The offial news is that Fidel Castro has resigned as
Cuba's President and commander in chief.

19/2 GMT 01.22 Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria!
We see the remergence of the "Tipping Point" thesis amongst the "Man Made Climate Change Fundamentalists"..
The tipping Point theory says that on a planet that is 4.6 Billion years old humans after 200 years of
industrial activity have alone created grounds for a form of Peak Monsoon, Peak Gulf Stream or Why not
Peak Ice and all at the same time more or less... This then all due to CO2 emissions which according to
the Fundamentalists drives Temperature change.. When the facts without a doubt state that the opposite is true,
Temperature Change leads CO2 Change by about a 1000 years..

After 200 years of industrial activity humans are responsible for the following about to occur,

- Melting of Arctic sea-ice (could take 10 years).
- Decay of the Greenland ice sheet (more than 300 years).
- Collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet (more than 300 years).
- Collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (approx 100 years).
- Increase in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (approx 100 years).
- Collapse of the Indian summer monsoon (approx 1 year). Sorry India by this time next year your ....!
- Greening of the Sahara/Sahel and disruption of the West African monsoon (approx 10 years).
- Dieback of the Amazon rainforest (approx 50 years). This one actually makes sense due to mindless logging...
- Dieback of the Boreal Forest (approx 50 years).

Ofcourse all of this can be saved and averted by way of TAXATION... Again Temperature Change leads CO2 Change by
about a 1000 years.. By the way Mushrooms take up Oxygen and produce Carbon Dioxide so I guess Mushrooms should
be TAXED heavily.... Hell why not just Outlaw Mushrooms!

Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria!

18/2 GMT 07.29 China - Oil Demand

In this note that about 47% of Chinas Crude is imported. This sites estimate for 2007 demand was 7.6 mmbopd... See earlier
postings.

18/2 GMT 06.45 Venezuela - Hugo Chavez
As expected Chavez will not cut oil supplies to the US...

Chavez - "We don't have plans to stop sending oil to the United States, but Venezuela could cut off supplies to the
United States if Washington attacks Venezuela or tries to harm us"....

What a Muppet!

18/2 GMT 05.19 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Year End Report
Out on the 20th of this month I expect it to be somber on the numbers due to production problems but positive on the
outlook and in this it is very easy to point to the details such as the Sudan, oil finds in Norway and Indonesia, a drill
in Russia. Again just contemplate the value of the company's deal with Russia! This company is all about forward looking
and so should its investors be. For sure the share has taken a hit as have most oilers but to be company specific a neutral
report with lot´s of goodies coming up.

18/2 GMT 05.07 Iran - New Oil Exchange
The first trade on the Iranian Oil Exchange was for a transaction in the petrochemical product linear low-density polyethylene...

I guess NYMEX can sleep easy tonight. Especially as Crude transactions over the exchange are set to start - not anytime soon.

18/2 GMT 01.17 Brazil - Tupi
It was estimated to contain 5 Billion Barrels but it does seem that could be a little low with latest estimates coming in at
30 Billion Barrels of intermediate or medium gravity oil of 28-30 API... The inital test saw 30 API with a flow of 4600 bopd
With a Natural Gas flow of 4.3 MMscf... The discovery was made in the Pre-salt Strata which is a new oil play with it does seem
huge potential. As was shown by the Natural Gas find in the Jupiter field only 37 Km from Tupi... Estimates of size etc of
Jupiter are still ongoing but it looks like Brazil just made a good case for a seat in OPEC....

Another body-blow to the Peak Oil Fanatics...

Oh by the way if Tupi does contain 30 Billion Barrels well that is one half of what the North Sea contained before extraction
was started all those years ago... Half a North Sea..

17/2 GMT 05.01 Iran - New Oil Exchange
Apparently after much delay and bits the Iranians are Today to launch the New Oil Exchange where any currency but
the US Dollar is a good currency. Russia never a nation to pass up a chance to demonstrate its jealousy of the US has
proposed that the Rouble be one of the currencies. Aswell as the Yen and Euro and I suppose even the Zimbabwe Dollar....

The question is - Is this going to have an effect on the market? Probably not as much of this is political yet therein lay
the real danger... The Iranian Oil Exchange is only one part of a larger puzzle...

A small man in a gabardine suit and clerics with their heads in the 12 century have brought Iran to the brink, because even
if the media have lost interest in the, US - Iran dynamic it is there and if what could happen actually would happen well
then we are all in for a wake-up call. Iranian supported Terrorist are talking war against Israel. Iran continues to seek a
nuclear bomb status and in this it tests space rockets while the economy is faultering. Large wars have grown out of far
leaner soil and one can only hope that the discussions between USA and Iran on a secret level a few weeks ago actually will
lead somewhere.

16/2 GMT 04.17 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - 5B
Look for an imminent second Spud in the block. Yet do remember this is a PETRONAS Play.

16/2 GMT 04.16 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX & Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX
Despite the Global issues in the marketplace, despite all other considerations these two companies are going to have
a Very Interesting 2008....

14/2 GMT 02.41 CRB Index

13/2 GMT 15.35 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Nyal-1
And the Next Shoe Dropped ie a Spud in Sudan...

Before a commercial oil find was made in the Sudan oil companies had drilled 78 test holes.. Yet the consortium
have had a good long while to do the pre-drill planning so you have to be optimistic about Nyal-1.. The gross
unrisked recoverable prospective resource for the Nyal-1 well is estimated to be 176 mmbls.

13/2 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 1.1 mmbls (API + 1.3 mmbls)
Gasoline + 1.7 mmbls (API + 0.6 mmbls)
Distillates - 0.1 mmbls (API - 0.5 mmbls)
Natural Gas - 120 Bcf
Crude Import 9.7 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 0.84 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.28 mmbopd
Refineries 85.1% + 0.8%
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.7 mmbls

12/2 GMT 07.33 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
I expect,

Crude + 4.2 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.5 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates + 1.1 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Natural Gas - 167 Bcf
Crude Import 10.4 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.31 mmbopd
Refineries 84.5%
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories + 10.1 mmbls

Note in this that Venezuelas Citgo Petroleum Corp brought back on line part of it´s plant in Lake Charles... Otherwise
US Refineries are in seasonal work-over mode so Stats can be difficult but the trend is set for a fifth week of builds
for Crude.

12/2 GMT 07.11 CRB Index
Looks great! Up is the tune... Yet there is the well known effect in commodities called the "Ketchup Effect"...

12/2 GMT 05.23 Australia - Business Confidence
Australian business confidence fell to its lowest level in nearly a decade in January amid growing concerns over the
health of the global economy and expectations of further rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia. A gauge of
business confidence compiled by the National Australia Bank fell 9 points to minus 4 in January. The reading was the
most pessimistic ever recorded by the monthly index apart from a brief period following the Sept 11, 2001 terrorist
attacks in the US.

12/2 GMT 03.32 USA - Presidential Elections
A prediction. The Next President and Vice President - McCain/Powell...

12/2 GMT 03.19 Iran - New Rocket Launch
Look for Iran to launch two more Rockets in the near future. Probably of the same type ie Safir-1 launched earlier
this month.

12/2 GMT 02.35 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX
So let´s talk about LUPE... One of the other "why did I not buy it" stocks....

For one I do belive or rather I know that the market in general has not fully understood the significance of LUPE´s
Russian venture. The Lundins know how to speak RealPolitik.. The fact that a small oiler from the West is able to
maneuver a deal in an environment of nationalization is unique and again not fully understood. The North Sea is a safe
bet in the oil industry as it has infrastructure and is close to market etc.. The Barents Sea is a new exploration area that
far larger companies than LUPE have not been invited to partake in... Indonesia just saw a small oil find for the company
and in this it is not the size of the find it is the diversification.. DIVERSIFICATION ie spread your risks!

The Sudan is Sudan and I have long held the belife that it should be sold but I did change my mind last year and well we
have come this far so better to go on find hydrocarbons and then sell it! I see no peace in the region anytime soon..

The stock has seen better days and there has been much frustration in the market concerning this but the company has done
what the Lundins are so good at ie moved on. Stuck to the plan and bided time. This has been the case for this company and
others in the sphere since their inception. 2008 is going to be a very interesting year, very... The Next Shoe to Drop..

11/2 GMT 21.16 Venezuela - Hugo Chavez
Chavez is a muppet and his rants and raves are about as interesting to watch and listen to. Chavez threatens to cut oil
supplies to the US.. Well the problem is he would be cutting off his own source of income. Citgo is a chain of gas stations
found across the US, 1500 stations to be exact and Citgo also has refining capacity in the US to the tune of 750.000 mbopd.
Citgo is owned by PDSVA which happens to be the Venezuelan State owned Oil Company.

Also about 60% of Venezuelas Crude oil exports go to the US of A....

10/2 GMT 04.20 Iran - 90 Billion barrels Oil Reserves in the Persian Gulf
The managing director of the National Iranian Continental Shelf Oil Company, Mahmoud Zirakchian Zadeh said on Saturday
that Iran's oil reserve in the Persian Gulf are estimated at 90 billion barrels. "With new oil discovery in the region,
the reserve may amount to 100 billion barrels". Mahmoud Zirakchian Zadeh said that Iranian oil reserves in the Persian
Gulf were estimated at 53 billion barrels last year meanwhile, the Persian Gulf has great potentials to uncover new oil
and gas fields. Case in point the newly found gas field at Farsi.

9/2 GMT 04.01 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway
The proposed new licenses are as follows;

PL006D 75% interest, operator Lupe
PL492 40% interest, operator Lupe
PL490 40% interest, operator Lupe
PL453S 30% interest, operator Lupe
PL476 30% interest, operator DNO
PL486S 30% interest, operator EON
PL487S 30% interest, operator EON

8/2 GMT 00.33 Year of the Rat
Gong Xi Fa Cai - Xin Nian Kuai Le

8/2 GMT 00.31 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX
So let´s talk about LUPE... One of the other "why did I not buy it" stocks....

7/2 GMT 21.49 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX
Read the latest Report from the company and in this I do mean really read the Report! The 14th will make things clearer
yet it is times like these in markets like these that you find the "why did I not buy it" stocks. TYK is one of them....

Oh by the way did you get the - Spring of TYKS message. This site is not for Dummies...!

7/2 GMT 17.12 Oil - WTI
$86.50 is an important support level for WTI and trade during the day has been as low as $86.24. Continued trade below
the support level indicates a drop down to the early $80´s. Geopoliticals like Nigeria, Iran and Norway do lend some
support to the price.

7/2 GMT 01.20 Iran - Oil Output
Irans daily output has hit a post 1979 high of just under 4.2 mmbopd, yeaterday actually. At the same time Iran is set
to bring online the Azadegan oilfield in time for the February 12 aniversary of the Islamic Revolution. Azadegan has a
proven reserve of 33 Billion barrels with a probable reserve of 40 Billion barrels.

At the same time it should be noted that the Iranian oil industry due to long time sanctions needs something in the order
of $20 to $30 Billion of investment in infrastructure mainly refining capacity to be able to fully utilize its resources.

6/2 GMT 15.43 Iran - US Military Strike - Russia
Even the Russians can no longer deny the fact that Irans Space Rocket launch of the Safir-1 rocket on Monday is a
pretty fair preamble to Iran actually having a Nuclear Bomb programme.

6/2 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 7.0 mmbls (API + 7.6 mmbls)
Gasoline + 3.6 mmbls (API + 5.6 mmbls)
Distillates + 0.1 mmbls (API - 2.0 mmbls)
Natural Gas - 200 Bcf
Crude Import 10.5 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.37 mmbopd
Refineries 84.3% -0.7%
Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories + 9.6 mmbls

One week does not a market make but the trend right now says and has said for awhile that the US is going to see a
build in supplies. Crude build for the fourth week running.. Gasoline demand is about 1% above last year while
Distillate demand is down by 0.8% year on year. Note the build in Gasoline...

5/2 GMT 19.42 USA - The Fed
It´s not Rocket Science to gage that there is a better than 75% chance that The Fed will move again on the Funds Rate
sooner rather than later. I expect a further 50 point move well before the March FOMC meeting.

5/2 GMT 02.47 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out 6/1
I expect,

Crude + 3.0 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates - 2.1 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.26 mmbopd
Refineries 84.9%
Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.2 mmbls

The Houston Shipping Channel (HSC) has been partially closed during Sunday and Monday due to seasonally occuring fog, with
some ships getting through but this is for next weeks stats. Fog is an intermittent problem in winter along the Gulf Coast,
a major US refining centre which accounts for 14% of US refining capacity.

I expect a build for the fourth week running for Crude and with Gasoline demand waining and Distillate demand way below a
winter season average there will be more pressure on the contracts after this report.

1/2 GMT 23.22 The Price of Oil
What the world needs now is cheaper oil...

The world is well supplied with oil as I have pointed to before yet oil still costs too much for the global economy and
especially the US economy to make it through this very rough patch that is coming. If Crude stays at around $90 going
forward then the US economy is going to go into a possible free-fall as the summer season comes into view. $90 oil
would mean that crack spreads are going to drive Gasoline prices up towards $4 a Gallon and in a Recession type
economy that is just simply crazy and a sure guarantee that we will see not only a US recession but a possible and more
dire global consequence.

Given that the contracts have been driven by the fall of the dollar and geopoliticals but those effects aside the price
of oil is too high. To save the global economy from a major slowdown and in this none is immune not China, India the EU in
fact none is immune. The price of oil needs to retreat into the $60 to $70 range. Something most should start adjusting to
as the indicators are pointing to this level.

31/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
Note the huge draw in Natural Gas storage - 274 Bcf. The largest one week draw I belive all time..

30/1 GMT 21.22 Iran - China
Iran now supplies China with 13% of its Crude Oil and the expectations are that this number will increase going forward,
always nice with a customer that has a permanent seat on the UN´s Security Council..

30/1 GMT 21.18 USA - The Fed
The Fed has now reduced the funds rate by 1.25% in 8 days... The pain is far from over in fact its just beginning...
Check out the problems I earlier pointed to - the Bond Insurers...

30/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 3.6 mmbls (API + 0.1 mmbls)
Gasoline + 3.6 mmbls (API - 0.4 mmbls)
Distillates - 1.5 mmbls (API - 3.9 mmbls)
Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.28 mmbopd
Refineries 85.0%
Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories - 1.0 mmbls

29/1 GMT 23.48 USA - The Fed
A 50 point reduction in the Fed Fund Rate is by 75% in the market. Cool if they stayed the course and simply said we have
done what we could for the market now it´s up to You. This ofcourse will not happen as after the 50 points another 50 to
75 will be needed but the thought does tickle the senses...

29/1 GMT 23.46 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
I expect,

Crude + 2.7 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 3.0 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates + 1.5 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.3 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd
Refineries 86.8%
Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories + 4.8 mmbls

The US is in a storage build situation for Crude. Demand for Heating Oil is down due to Naturally occurring Climate Change!
There have been no major supply interruptions in the US over the latest period. Unless the sky falls overnight I expect few
if any bullish numbers from this Report.

29/1 GMT 13.01 OPEC
OPEC is now considering lower production quotas going forward due to the economic slowdown and lower demand numbers. Oh
yeah OPEC and the world is still not running out of oil by the way. A fact that has to be pointed out to the Peak Oil fringe
who see every production reduction as a sign that their religion is the one... *g*

28/1 GMT 02.07 USA - The Market
Big week ahead...

If you look at the Pimco analysis of the US treasury market the Fed Funds rate is still about 1.5% above the level of
balance. Big week indeed as most of the numbers I belive will simply verify that which is apparent. Recession.

24/1 GMT 19.45 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX
2007 saw the Summer of TYKS... 150 SEK plus.. I foresee a very interesting Spring of TYKS.
Also very nice trading ranges of late...

24/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude + 2.3 mmbls (API + 1.5 mmbls)
Gasoline + 5.0 mmbls (API + 2.5 mmbls)
Distillates - 1.3 mmbls (API - 0.36 mmbls)
Natural gas - 155 Bcf
Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.24 mmbopd
Refineries 86.5%
Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.2 mmbls

Gasoline and Distillate demand backed off some and with the relatively mild winter in the US the build in the Gasoline
storage should be a negative for that market. A neutral to negative market report.

24/1 GMT 02.56 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
I expect,

Crude + 3.0 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates - 0.8 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Crude Import 10.5 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.3 mmbopd
Refineries 87.5%
Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.2 mmbls

23/1 GMT 09.09 The Market - In General
It worries me that so few have caught on to the fact that we are heading for a real slowdown...

The Bank of China yesterday stopped trading in Shanghai due to credit loses in the US sub-prime market. This is only the
beginning as Japan and China are huge lenders to the US economy. Further the bond insurers and reinsurers in the US are only
now starting to take a hit. End of year 2007 financial reports are going to be very interesting to read for the - Financials.

Analysts from India and China are stating that their economies are insulated from the US problems, Western problems.
This is a joke as India and much more so China are tied to the US economy like never before. It is a Global Economy with
all that that entails...

Anyone who has read this site for awhile should not or could not be surprised by what is happening as the writing has been on
the wall since early last year. Dr Greenspan called this one in April 2007...

That trading will be good going forward is a given and volatility is the life-blood of the market yet remember that there are
a huge mass of investors and even analysts, traders etc out there that have not been through a really painfull market before....

23/1 GMT 09.09 Davos - Economic Summit - Royal Dutch Shell
CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, Jeroen van der Veer, emphasized that the world is not running out of oil and gas
supplies. There are no queues to gas stations and not one singular customer has not gotten the oil, gasoline
or distillates he needs. Ie there is no lack of oil in the marketplace. Jeroen van der Veer pointed to speculation
and trade in the contracts as the main driver of the price of crude and products....

22/1 GMT 13.48 BP Economist - No imminent Peak to Oil production

BP Economist: no imminent peak to oil production
By Lananh Nguyen
Jan. 17, 2008

BP economist Wednesday said the world isn't facing an impending oil shortage, rejecting the so-called
'peak oil' theory. "An imminent peak in production has been repeatedly and wrongly predicted,"
said Peter Davies, special economic advisor to BP and formerly the company's chief economist.
The peak oil argument states world oil production is approaching, or has already reached, its maximum.
But Davies said limited access in oil-rich nations to outside investors, unfavorable tax regimes and lack
of investment were to blame for the limits on oil supply growth. "It's not a resource issue, it's an investment issue,"
Davies said, speaking at a meeting held by the U.K.'s All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas.

Davies said world oil production would peak eventually - but not any time soon, and not for lack of oil in the ground.
He argued climate change policies encouraging a shift away from oil consumption would lead to "peak demand,"
and discourage further oil production growth. "There's a distinct possibility that global oil production could peak
because of climate change policies," rather than a shortage of oil, he said. Data for 2006 show world oil reserves
stood at 1.2 trillion barrels, according to BP's 2007 Statistical Review of World Energy.

"Proved oil reserves continue to climb in the long run," BP said in the report. "Reserves have grown 72.9 billion barrels
since 2001 and 159.2 billion barrels or 15% over the last decade." Meanwhile, the world still has 14 trillion barrels of
conventional and unconventional oil "in place," with conventional oil accounting for half the total, according to Davies.
Oil in place refers to the total amount contained in a reservoir, and isn't a measure of the amount of crude that can be
recovered or produced. New technologies could also add to world's oil resource base - including enhanced oil recovery
techniques, biofuels and unconventional oils such as tar sands, Davies said.

Davies' comments echo BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward's rejection of the peak oil argument....

16/1 GMT 14.36 OPEC
As expected OPEC will not increase production, and in this there is the question why should they?
The answer is they should Not because - THE WORLD IS MORE THAN WELL SUPPLIED WITH OIL!!!!

16/1 GMT 00.55 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Canaccord Analysis

Canaccord Analysis

Interesting is the target level of about 180 SEK... Please see my earlier posts....

9/1 GMT 08.58 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API
I expect,

Crude + 0.5 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Gasoline + 1.9 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Distillates - 0.8 mmbls (API na mmbls)
Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.18 mmbopd
Refineries 89.5%
Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.5 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories - 3.2 mmbls

Tricky week as we are heading into a build situation. Warm weather due to NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE does play a part. Crude
should show a build for the first time in weeks.

On a side note you have to love the guy who bought 1.000 barrels of of WTI at $100 only to make a loss of $680... Anything
to get your name on the board I suppose. What a fool....

17/12 GMT 12.39 Oil - Iraq - Production
Iraqs oil production is currently running at 2.3 mmbopd this then up from 1.9 mmbopd earlier this year. Which means
that the current production is above the pre-war 2003 level.

17/12 GMT 12.37 Island Oil & Gas - IOG:LSE - Albania
Island Oil & Gas announces that its wholly owned subsidiary Island International Exploration BV has acquired the
remaining 50% equity interest in the Durresi Block offshore Albania from Lundin Albania BV and that this transfer
of interest has now been formally approved by the National Agency of Natural Resources in the Republic of Albania.

Lundin Petroleum have been interested in getting out of this license for a while now so this is not huge news..

Note that Lundin have a 3.65% share in Island Oil & Gas.....

16/12 GMT 13.03 Oil - The Market
The cost of One Barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil is about $91... Down from $93...
The cost of One Barrel of StarBucks Coffee is still about $680...

I am in this letting you think about the issue, consider the numbers...

15/12 GMT 22.15 Stop the Change Climate Change Hysteria
Two articles from the Canadian National Post that very clearly reflects or rather states the view held by many in the
scientific field on the Madness of - Change Climate Change or Man-made Climate Change... Note that most have been part of
the IPCC considerations...

Don't fight, Adapt!
We should give up futile attempts to combat climate change

National Post Published: Thursday, December 13, 2007

Open Letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations Dec. 13, 2007

His Excellency Ban Ki-Moon Secretary-General, United Nations New York, N.Y.

Dear Mr. Secretary-General,

Re: UN climate conference taking the World in entirely the wrong direction

It is not possible to stop climate change, a natural phenomenon that has affected humanity through the ages. Geological,
archaeological, oral and written histories all attest to the dramatic challenges posed to past societies from unanticipated
changes in temperature, precipitation, winds and other climatic variables. We therefore need to equip nations to become
resilient to the full range of these natural phenomena by promoting economic growth and wealth generation.

Don´t fight Adapt!
A New call to Reason

14/12 GMT 19.00 The Great Global Warming Swindle
The film is worth watching especially for those who are indoctrinated by the media CO2 fluff....

Download this video The Great Global Warming Swindle as to how you view it is all up
to the media player you use... You may have to convert the file. The file is a large 328 Mb...

12/12 GMT 23.25 New Zealand - The Change Climate Change Hysteria
National Geographic News - New Zealand Tries to Cap Gaseous Sheep Burps...

New Zealand scientists trying to curb their country's influence on global warming may have found an answer
to belch about: Livestock that eat plants high in condensed tannins produce up to 16 percent less methane,
a potent greenhouse gas.

Methane is one of the three most potent gases that some scientists say are causing the Earth to warm up at an
accelerated and unnatural rate. Carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels is the most common greenhouse
gas in the world. "New Zealand is unique in that over 50 percent of its greenhouse gas emissions arise from
methane released by enteric fermentation," said Katharine Hayhoe, an atmospheric scientist at the University
of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois. Enteric fermentation is methane produced as part of the normal digestive
process of animals, such as cows and sheep. It is primarily released in the form of burps.

The 45 million sheep and 10 million cattle in New Zealand make for a lot of burped methane—about 90 percent of
that country's methane emissions, according to government figures. For comparison, livestock are responsible for
about 2 percent of the United States' greenhouse gas emissions, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

I am laughing so hard I can hardly breath.....!!!

12/12 GMT 22.15 Oil Oil the Contracts
Cold weather expected for the US North East, the US, UK & Co Central Banks decision to at least be concerned about the
credit problem, oil spill in the North Sea and in some small part the Inventory report drove the contracts nicelly today.
The US inventory report when dissected was not that bullish yet when the market moves it moves. A good day allround.

12/12 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API

Crude - 0.7 mmbls (API + 1.4 mmbls)
Gasoline + 1.6 mmbls (API + 2.5 mmbls)
Distillates - 0.8 mmbls (API - 1.7 mmbls)
Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd + 0.7 mmbopd
Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd - 0.2 mmbopd
Distillate Imports 0.17 mmbopd - 0.8 mmbopd
Refineries 88.8% -0.4%
Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd
Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd
Total Petroleum Inventories - 1.2 mmbls

The stock storage for Crude at Cushing is again showing a build, four weeks running.
The build last week was 1.7 mmbls.. Not a report that is going to run with the Bulls, fairly neutral.

11/12 GMT 19.16 USA - The Fed
Hats off to the Boston Fed´s Eric Rosengren who wanted a 0.5% cut. Interesting statement that really calls for a larger
cut.. That the Discount Rate was not cut by 0.5% is just wrong. You have to feel sorry for small US Banks that want to
borrow for local needs and Small Business Mainstreet that is going to have a tougher time than needed.

Funds Rate 4.25% - 0.25%
Discount Rate 4.75% - 0.25%

11/12 GMT 14.57 Norway - The Climate Change Hysteria on Steroids
OSLO (Reuters) - Norway's finance ministry played down comments by Finance Minister Kristen Halvorsen in a Norwegian
newspaper on Tuesday signaling that Norway's oil production may be cut for environmental reasons. Top-selling tabloid
VG quoted Halvorsen as saying that if new environmental taxes were put on oil production it could reduce the value of
Norway's oil deposits, possibly to zero. "One can imagine a situation in the future where oil, in the worst case, is
prohibited and valued at zero," VG quoted Halvorsen as saying from Bali, Indonesia, where she is attending a U.N.
conference on counteracting climate change.

"Again I pray that there’s intelligent life somewhere up in Space, Cause there’s bugger all down here on Earth."

11/12 GMT 11.21 Russia - Dmitry Medvedev
In his first speech since being namned as Putins successor Mr Medvedev states that Russian President Vladimir Putin should
become Prime Minister after stepping down next year....

10/12 GMT 23.57 USA - The Fed
Prediction,

Funds Rate 4.0% - 0.5%
Discount Rate 4.5% - 0.5%

10/12 GMT 23.39 Russia - Dmitry Medvedev
The chairman of Gazprom gets the nod to be Putin's successor... The Lundin sphere of companies in Russia have had varying
degrees of contact with Mr Medvedev since he came to Gazprom in 2002.

"Mr Medvedev earlier this month, said it was time for Gazprom, as the world's biggest gas company, to promote its
international image by positioning itself on stock exchanges in New York and Shanghai."

10/12 GMT 15.23 Noble Peace Prize
Al Gore and the UN´s IPCC are handed the Peace Prize on this day. If that is not a Monty Python Moment I don´t know
what would be...

Yet take heart humans as we are Omnipotent!

Not only are Humans the sole reason for Climate Change, this on a planet that is 4 Billion Years Old where Climate Change
has occured in natural cycles for well let´s see 4 Billion Years... BUT Humans are so omnipotent that Humans can actually
Change Climate Change... Our weapon to Change Climate Change is - Taxation!!

"I pray that there’s intelligent life somewhere up in Space, Cause there’s bugger all down here on Earth."

10/12 GMT 15.16 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan
Ofcourse it is in Petronas hands as site operator but I would be very surprised to not see a drill bit in the ground
before New Year, very surprised..

6/12 GMT 22.43 Oil - The Market
The cost of One Barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil is about $90... Up from $88...
The cost of One Barrel of StarBucks Coffee is still about $680...

So obviously according to the "Peak Oil Fanatics" the world is running out of Coffee....
And more importantly the world is according to the "Peak Oil Fanatics" running out of oil...
Well that is actually the whole basis for their point of view...

More on this.... Bare with me there is method to my madness... *G*

6/12 GMT 22.19 EU - Oil Demand

2004 14.48 mmbopd
2005 14.54 mmbopd
2006 14.59 mmbopd
2007 14.68 mmbopd (estimate)

The range for 2007 is 14.60 mmbopd to 14.68 mmbopd...

6/12 GMT 20.34 China - Oil Demand

The estimate for 2007 is in the range of 7.15 mmbopd to 7.6 mmbopd...

6/12 GMT 20.31 India - Oil Demand

1993 1.3 mmbopd
1994 1.4 mmbopd
1995 1.6 mmbopd
1996 1.7 mmbopd
1997 1.8 mmbopd
1998 1.8 mmbopd
1999 2.0 mmbopd
2000 2.1 mmbopd
2001 2.2 mmbopd
2002 2.2 mmbopd
2003 2.35 mmbopd
2004 2.35 mmbopd
2005 2.35 mmbopd
2006 2.4 mmbopd
2007 2.45 mmbopd (estimate)

The estimate for 2007 is in the range of 2.41 mmbopd to 2.45 mmbopd...

6/12 GMT 10.52 OPEC - Production
OPEC did the only thing they could or should and have signalled for weeks they would ie keep production at the
current level. Because and I am writing this very slowly so that everyone can understand,

- The world is more than well supplied with Oil...

Maybe I should write it again... *g*

6/12 GMT 10.48 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - OMXS30
Lupe heads into the OMXS30 Index which means it is going to become a must buy for most if not all of the larger index,
pension and spread funds...

5/12 GMT 18.59 Oil - Technology Enhancements
BP´s subsea multi-phase pumps at 1.700 meters is a breakthrough as it increases the yield from The King Oilfield
in the Gulf of New Mexico by 20% and adds 5 years to it´s production cycle.

This is a huge boost for other Deep Sea projects around the world. Technology....

Nation	City	Price in USD Regular/Gallon
Netherlands	Amsterdam	$6.48
Norway	Oslo	$6.27
Italy	Milan	$5.96
Denmark	Copenhagen	$5.93
Belgium	Brussels	$5.91
Sweden	Stockholm	$5.80
United Kingdom	London	$5.79
Germany	Frankfurt	$5.57
France	Paris	$5.54
Portugal	Lisbon	$5.35
Hungary	Budapest	$4.94
Australia	Sydney	$4.92
Luxembourg		$4.82
Croatia	Zagreb	$4.81
Ireland	Dublin	$4.78
Switzerland	Geneva	$4.74
South Korea	Seoul	$4.71
Spain	Madrid	$4.55
Japan	Tokyo	$4.24
Czech Republic	Prague	$4.19
Romania	Bucharest	$4.09
Andorra		$4.08
USA		$3.72
Estonia	Tallinn	$3.62
Bulgaria	Sofia	$3.52
Brazil	Brasilia	$3.12
Cuba	Havana	$3.03
Taiwan	Taipei	$2.84
India		$2.78
Lebanon	Beirut	$2.63
South Africa	Johannesburg	$2.62
Nicaragua	Managua	$2.61
Panama	Panama City	$2.19
Russia	Moscow	$2.10
Puerto Rico	San Juan	$1.74
Saudi Arabia	Riyadh	$0.91
Kuwait	Kuwait City	$0.78
Egypt	Cairo	$0.65
Nigeria	Lagos	$0.38
Iran		$0.35
Venezuela	Caracas	$0.12

Greywolf

Don't fight, Adapt! We should give up futile attempts to combat climate change