Greywolf







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31/12 GMT 16.41 2012 - The End? or Just a Calendar Ticking Over?? The Mayan k'in Calendar much like an odometer ticks over to a new cycle on 21/12/12 or does it...? Mayan k'in - Long Count Calendar Countdown

31/12 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 0.5 mmbls (API + 0.089 mmbls) Gasoline + 0.8 mmbls (API - 1.6 mmbls) Distillates + 0.7 mmbls (API - 0.6 mmbls) Natural Gas - 147 Bcf Total Petroleum Inventories - 4.2 mmbls Crude Import 9.2 mmbopd ī+ 0.1 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd - 0.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.15 mmbopd - 0.09 mmbopd Refineries 82.5% - 2.2% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd - 2.2% yoy Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd - 3.3% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.3 mmbopd - 12.4% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 19.9 mmbopd - 3.7% yoy 31/12 GMT 02.29 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude - 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.3 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas - 138 Bcf There is more crude stored at Cushing, 29 mmmbls at anytime since 2004 when stats for that storage were introduced. 29/12 GMT 23.46 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX I stand by my earlier statement that itīs too early to get into this stock for maximum gain... Trade it for sure but you better check the vitals like for instance volume.... Also a small thing called the Fundamentals! 29/12 GMT 23.28 Oil - The Contracts Typical low volume trade in the holiday season. The contracts react to the Israel-Hamas action and still the OPEC reduction which is yesterdays news.. Look for the contracts to continue the trend once full trading service is resumed. All of the numbers I have seen point to as stated before far worse demand numbers... 28/12 GMT 16.51 USA - Retail Sales Ex autos US retail sales were down - 5.2% in November and - 8% in December up to and including the 24th of December. Half of the drop in each month was due to Gasoline. However if you include auto sales things get way worse... 26/12 GMT 17.42 Oil - The Contracts Fairly ligth volume but the contracts did react to the UAEīs 15% cut in loadings, even if this is only in line with the lastest OPEC reductions. Otherwise Japans oil imports are again down by - 4.8%. Nippon Oil Corporation Japan's largest refiner, plans to reduce output by 25% next month and it may continue cuts in the first three months of 2009 due to weak demand. Japan is after the US and China the worlds third largest oil importer.... 25/12 GMT 12.32 Oil - The Contracts On a technical level I belive the $30 to $33 interval could hold for a time, even if a journey down into the $20īs is not out of the question. And in this I could see this going even lower when the GDP numbers start rolling out of China for instance... 24/12 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 3.1 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 3.3 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.7 mmbls Crude Import 9.1 mmbopd ī- 0.9 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.3 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.24 mmbopd + 0.14 mmbopd Refineries 84.7% - 2.4% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd - 2.7% yoy Distillate Demand 3.9 mmbopd - 5.1% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.3 mmbopd - 11.7% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 19.8 mmbopd - 4.2% yoy 23/12 GMT 11.07 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX I can only reiterate, 10/11 GMT 07.38 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX It is time for the company to issue a balance sheet for liquidation purposes and it would be appropriate to do so in conjunction with the publication of the results of the rights issue. Especially as the companies asset/debt ratio is far worse than previously stated. And again point to the fact that the companies asset/debt ratio is far worse than previously stated.... 23/12 GMT 06.05 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Tanganyika Oil Company Ltd. today announces that NASDAQ OMX Stockholm has decided to delist Tanganyika's Swedish Depositary Receipts ("SDRs") from NASDAQ OMX Stockholm. The last day of trading in the SDRs on NASDAQ OMX Stockholm will be December 23, 2008. That is today boys and girls... 23/12 GMT 00.27 The Site During the upcoming holiday season I hope to get the time to further develop some of the thoughts running through the site... 22/12 GMT 20.21 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX I would not get caught up in the current "buying frenzy" which it has to be fair to say died down some, even if this stock did very well last week thanks to cash moving from TYK to the stock... A bit too early to get into this one for maximum effect unless you are very long. 22/12 GMT 20.17 Oil - The Contracts It is all about Demand as I have been saying for a long time. OPEC and any oil producer for that matter can tweek the production numbers but itīs all down to Demand and on a global scale it is falling. WTI Feb09 closed the day at $39.91 down - 5.8%... Also OPEC can not cut production more than on a "tabloid" level due to their own economic criteria and the fact that the world is heading into a Depression ie a shortage of oil would further hurt the global economy.. See earlier posts on this. 22/12 GMT 09.53 China China to reduce lending and deposit rates by 27 basis points to 5.31%. 19/12 GMT 16.05 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX 95% of shareholders have accepted the bid... 19/12 GMT 10.03 Atlas Copco ATCO:SAX Look for more about Atlas going forward... 19/12 GMT 09.42 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - NEW LICENCES Lundin Petroleum AB ("Lundin Petroleum") is pleased to announce that its wholly owned subsidiary Lundin Norway AS has been awarded four new exploration licence interests in the 2008 Norwegian Licencing Round, Awards in Predefined Areas (APA). These include two licences which will be operated by Lundin Petroleum. The licence interests detailed below are located in the North Sea. Licence Lundin Petroleum licence interest Block 7/2, 4, 5, 8 60%* Block 15/12 40% Block16/2, 3, 5, 6 40%* Block 25/7, 10 30% *operator Lundin Petroleum Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO of Lundin Petroleum comments; "We are pleased to be awarded further acreage in Norway particularly to expand our position in the highly prospective Greater Luno area where we will operate Block 16/2, 3, 5, 6 (PL 501)"' 18/12 GMT 21.16 Oil - The Contracts January front month expires on Friday and it closed the day at $36.22 - 9.66%.. As always in the change over of the Front Month trade you get a divergence and February 09 contracts ended the day at $41.67 - 2.3%. Look for the Feb09 contracts to catch up to the Jan09īs during Fridays trade. The spread between WTI & Brent is much due to the perception of where demand will be centered going forward and there Asia has been the place. Look for the spread to thin considerably. Graph up later. 17/12 GMT 23.54 Oil - The Contracts The trend has at least from this sites perspective been clear for a long time and we are now heading for the $30 to $33 range. 17/12 GMT 19.04 OPEC So its Fluffy OPEC, as expected... A cut of 4.2 mmbls brought back to September which means an actual cut of 2.2 mmbls. The old OPEC two step.. The last time the Production Quota was at this level the WTI contracts traded at $30.. 16/12 GMT 09.12 ÚSA - The Fed A 50 basis point cut is expected, could be as large as 75 points... 15/12 GMT 17.12 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Enough said! 12/12 GMT 15.12 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Sinopec’s chairman, Su Shulin is not in Syria to simply oversee the transition team... Look for ink on paper as soon as this weekend.. 12/12 GMT 03.48 USA - Car Industry Bailout - Dead! Despite a world wide wave of Rampant Socialism..... There will be no bailout of the US Car Industry. An Industry that has been losing money for decades. I guess the United Auto Workers Union will have to put their hopes in the upcoming four years of Obamaism... That the White House would use TARP money to save the day is highly unlikely.... 11/12 GMT 17.43 OPEC OPEC will cut production.. But donīt look for a "Killer Cut". The global economy is far too sensitive and OPEC knows very well who pays their bills.. 10/12 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 0.4 mmbls (API + 3.4 mmbls) Gasoline + 3.8 mmbls (API + 5.0 mmbls) Distillates + 5.6 mmbls (API + 3.7 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.7 mmbls Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd ī+ 0.5 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.1 mmbopd - 0.02 mmbopd Refineries 87.4% + 3.1% Gasoline Demand 8.9 mmbopd - 3.2% yoy Distillate Demand 3.9 mmbopd - 4.0% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.3 mmbopd - 16.8% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 19.3 mmbopd - 6.1% yoy Simply more Supply than Demand.... 10/12 GMT 09.08 China Chinas GDP growth numbers are as I have stated before, way over the top inflated... "Australian Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens warned yesterday growth in China may have already fallen below the critical 8% level. Most economists regard 8% as the magic number for China with anything below that level effectively a "recession" and a potential trigger-point for economic and even political instability. Not news for anyone who has followed this site.... 10/11 GMT 07.38 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX It is time for the company to issue a balance sheet for liquidation purposes and it would be appropriate to do so in conjunction with the publication of the results of the rights issue. Especially as the companies asset/debt ratio is far worse than previously stated. 8/12 GMT 04.41 Oil - The Contracts Closing prices for the 5/12.. WTI $40.81 Brent $39.67 Look for a "Bail-Out Package" bounce during the beginning of the week. Also Saudi Arabia has cut exports to Asian refineries indicating a further Real cut in production. The test will be to see how the others in the cartel tow the line. WTI is going to test the $40 level and well you know the trend... 5/12 GMT 06.26 China - Recession I wrote, 3/11 GMT 02.56 China Look for China to slow down faster than even I expected... At a GDP growth of 5% the country is compared to the rest of the world effectively in a Recession and with statistics from the Communist State as they are we are closer to this point, very close... As I follow the Chinese economy fairly closely and have done so for a long time I am more and more convinced that the country if not in Recession is very, very much closer to being so. Case in point is that Chinas demand for Crude as of the end of October was 7.3 mmbopd. Crude demand for 2007 came in at 7.5 mmbopd... My own prognosis for 2008 is as stated before 7.8 mmbopd with the caveat that this could be lower and more and more facts point to this being true. 5/12 GMT 04.03 Oil - The Contracts Closing prices for the 4/12.. WTI $43.67 Brent $44.04 There will be a test of the 600 MA level of $42.85 for WTI and it would not be impropable to see a close in the $30īs ahead of the weekend, most unlikely though. Yet in this the major support level could turn out to be a pivot point and failure to breach it could see a short rally. However the contracts are heading for the $30 level, even if there will be upticks and short rallies the trend is definitely one of further decline. 5/12 GMT 03.48 Central Banks - Sweden Riksbank - EU ECB - England BOE The Riksbank cuts rates by 1.75%. This signals two things to the market - Panic and Incompetence! 4/12 GMT 04.21 The Site Since the restart of the site it has, as of today seen 12.000.000 Unique Visitors. Thanks.. 4/12 GMT 03.39 Australia - National Security Advisor The Australian PM Kevin Rudd has made an interesting decision by appointing a man from the Regiment as Australias first National Security Advisor in the form of former SAS soldier Duncan Lewis. Lewis was commanding officer of the SAS Regiment, yet not from the Regiment. Lewis is a 30 year veteran of the Army. 4/12 GMT 03.31 Oil - The Contracts WTI and Brent are in Asian electronic trade taking a further step towards the $40 level, WTI $45.52 Brent $43.80 3/12 GMT 21.21 Central Banks - Sweden Riksbank - EU ECB - England BOE The RBA in Australia cut by 1% to 4.25% and on Thursday the worlds oldest and youngest central banks will show their hands. The ECB cuts by 1% and the Riksbank by 1.25%. The BOE the worlds second oldest central bank will cut by 1%. At least they are my guesstimates. 3/12 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 0.4 mmbls (API - 2.3 mmbls) Gasoline - 1.6 mmbls (API - 0.4 mmbls) Distillates - 1.7 mmbls (API + 3.1 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories - 0.4 mmbls Crude Import 9.5 mmbopd - 0.4 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd + 0.0 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.12 mmbopd - 0.0 mmbopd Refineries 84.3% - 0.6% Gasoline Demand 8.9 mmbopd - 3.2% yoy Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd - 2.2% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.3 mmbopd - 16.7% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 19.3 mmbopd - 6.3% yoy First drop for Crude in ten weeks. US demand for crude and products keeps falling as it is in the rest of the world, a very simple fact. 3/12 GMT 10.19 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC Extension This moves the deal "nicely" into the fiscal year 2009... 2/12 GMT 23.01 Oil - The Contracts As stated $42.85 is the perceived major support level right now. 1/12 GMT 20.01 OPEC OPEC is still trying to get a handle on the result of the latest cut in production hence the lack of any decision over the past weekend. And judging by tracking tanker traffic and other variables I doubt very much they will even be able to move on a decision later this month. The market does not belive so with a - 10% down day... Also if OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El Badri thinks $70 to $90 oil is a "very reasonable" level today then he needs to wake up and smell the coffee. What the World economy needs right now is "cheap oil". No two ways about it! 1/12 GMT 19.19 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX Desperation... The company with itīs back to the wall sells itīs Norweigan subsidiary and all of its assets on the Norwegian continental shelf to the German company Bayerngas for $220 million, 1.764 million SEK. How much net profit Pare makes on the deal is for obvious reasons unclear and will be so for a long time to come as the sale will be conveniently booked next year... If anybody thinks Pare is actually getting $220 million for this deal well then.. Given the companies debt structure I would venture to guess that the net profit may come in in the region of $130 to $150 million at best. In fact I think there will be little or no real net profit at all as this sale simply buys time before the inevitable. So Pare sells a producing asset, 30% of todays daily production to concentrate on "wild cat" exploration and possible future production starts sometime in the distant future in Africa..... 21/11 GMT 05.01 Oil - Storage Royal Dutch Shell has booked supertankers capable of storing fairly large capacity loads of Crude, 10 mmbls... Iran and other oil producers are already storing huge amounts of crude in VLCCīs... 21/11 GMT 04.22 China And so it begins... About 60.000 to 90.000 factories in country have gone bankrupt this year and this then leads to unemployment for massive amounts of workers, who of late have taken their frustrations out in the form of riots... 20/11 GMT 20.23 Oil - The Contracts Well $50 was a snack as expected. WTI closed the day at $49.62 down - 7.5%... In electronic trade the WTI contract is going for $48.70 down 9.18%... Graph up later. 20/11 GMT 15.31 USA - Gasoline Demand Americans drove almost 11 Billion fewer miles this September, that is down - 4.4% year on year.. 20/11 GMT 05.27 China Things are going to get real bad really quickly, just a reminder! 20/11 GMT 03.06 Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria A worthy repost... Especially as the Obama White House seems to be Al Gore "indoctrinated", ie the "patients are running the asylum".. 20/11 GMT 01.25 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - A Warning! The company cuts itīs Capex for 2009 and now it wants more money from the market to finance past sins..? I would not be surprised if this company seeīs bankruptcy within six months.. Where did all of the huge profits go?? This company is a scam.. Look at the debt structure! Stay Away from this Stock!! 19/11 GMT 19.47 Central Banks - USA The Fed The minutes from the latest meeting show that The Fed is expecting a US Recession to run for a year or more... The worlds oldest central bank, Swedens Riksbank should be told about this.. In this you need to use large letters and simple words with lotīs of pictures because the board of the bank is populated with "simple" folk.. *G* ”The global financial system has been shaken to its foundations since the middle of September. Even countries like Sweden, far from the centre of the crisis, are now tangibly affected by the crisis. The Riksbank, other authorities, the Riksdag and the government are taking forceful measures to minimise the damage to the economy as a whole," says Governor Stefan Ingves in a speech given at the Riksdag Committee on Finance hearing today".. 13/11/2008 "The Riksbank's assessment is that the most acute phase of the crisis may subside over the next few months, it will probably take time before conditions return to normal. Confidence must be restored on several levels and that takes time, says Barbro Wickman-Parak in a speech at Bankföreningen today".. 12/11/2008 And then you have the arrogant "moron" from the worlds youngest central bank the ECB, "The head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, said Tuesday that he had not yet seen deflation trends in the eurozone, which has taken a hit from the global financial crisis. "I don't see yet trends of deflation in the euro area," he said in a question and answer session after a speech at the Royal Institute of International Affairs think tank in London. Trichet also said fiscal stimulus plans were a good way to lift the economy for those who could afford it, although he stressed that European Union countries must stay within EU borrowing rules". 18/11/2008 19/11 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 1.6 mmbls (API + 8.0 mmbls) Gasoline + 0.5 mmbls (API + 0.7 mmbls) Distillates - 1.5 mmbls (API + 0.13 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.7 mmbls Crude Import 9.9 mmbopd + 0.4 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd + 0.3 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.12 mmbopd - 0.02 mmbopd Refineries 84.9% + 0.3% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd - 2.2% yoy Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd - 3.3% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.3 mmbopd - 20.3% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 19.1 mmbopd - 7.0% yoy 19/11 GMT 14.13 Oil - The Contracts I would view the 600 MA level of $42.85 as the definite bottom in this move down... 18/11 GMT 19.54 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 1.5 mmbls Gasoline + 1.0 mmbls Distillates + 2.0 mmbls Note that US retail gasoline demand rose + 1.5% last week due to cheaper "at the pump" prices.... Demand however is still down - 2.8% year on year.. With gasoline imports last week down by 0.4 mmbopd the product could actually see a decline in the above stats.. It all depends on the import numbers. 18/11 GMT 02.50 Global Recession I wrote, 4/4 GMT 05.06 The Price of Oil "I wrote, 1/2 GMT 23.22 The Price of Oil What the world needs now is cheaper oil... The world is well supplied with oil as I have pointed to before yet oil still costs too much for the global economy and especially the US economy to make it through this very rough patch that is coming. If Crude stays at around $90 going forward then the US economy is going to go into a possible free-fall as the summer season comes into view. $90 oil would mean that crack spreads are going to drive Gasoline prices up towards $4 a Gallon and in a Recession type economy that is just simply crazy and a sure guarantee that we will see not only a US recession but a possible and more dire global consequence. Given that the contracts have been driven by the fall of the dollar and geopoliticals but those effects aside the price of oil is too high. To save the global economy from a major slowdown and in this none is immune not China, India the EU in fact none is immune. The price of oil needs to retreat into the $60 to $70 range. Something most should start adjusting to as the indicators are pointing to this level. I stand by this sentiment and add to it that unless the price of oil does retreat to the level of $60 to $70 then the rest of the world is going to go through a very rough patch... Depression! There is no such thing as decoupling of economies in a global economy we are all in the same boat... 5/10 GMT 23.31 Global Recession Do I belive it will get that bad... Well, be prepared for it because itīs out there lurking... In this Europe is in for a major dowturn so the focus is going to move from the US to the EU, 27 diverse states with in most cases totally different criteria"... If you care to do a Ctrl+F Search of the site with the key word "Recession" you will find this site saw this mess coming a long, long time ago.... More on this... 18/11 GMT 00.16 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - A Warning! I wrote, 16/5 GMT 01.49 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX "I usually do not comment on shares I do not favour simply because there is no money in it! But when it comes to PA Resources well..." "Actually I have commented on the company twice once this year and also in November of 2007 I belive the 27/11 to be precise. Just show me one thing! How much is the company actually going to spend on exploration going forward? Producing oil from depleting oil fields without a serious financial intent to replenish the Reserve does give you a great profit margin but little else." The company cuts itīs Capex for 2009 and now it wants more money from the market to finance past sins..? I would not be surprised if this company seeīs bankruptcy within six months.. Where did all of the huge profits go?? This company is a scam.. Look at the debt structure! Stay Away from this Stock!! 17/11 GMT 21.52 The Site - Updates Lack of updates due to travel.. 13/11 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude +- 0.0 mmbls (API + 0.9 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls (API + 3.6 mmbls) Distillates + 0.6 mmbls (API + 1.5 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.2 mmbls Crude Import 9.5 mmbopd - 0.5 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.6 mmbopd - 0.4 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.14 mmbopd - 0.01 mmbopd Refineries 84.6% - 0.7% Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd - 1.9% yoy Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd - 4.6% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.3 mmbopd - 18.8% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 19.1 mmbopd - 6.6% yoy 11/11 GMT 20.12 Oil - The Contracts WTI ends the day at $59.33 or - 4.9%. There are a lot of support levels on the way down but $50 is it seems the next big target. Look again at the MAīs.. 11/11 GMT 12.51 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - A Competing Bid A rumor has been floating around for more than a few days concerning a competing bid for TYK. The basis for this rumor is that Syria is getting closer to the west on a lot of issues and with an Obama presidency this would accelerate which in turn would lead to the possible future involvment of US and other oil companies in Syria. Do I belive the rumor? Well it makes sense in some part but I think on the whole it does not seem plausible given the time-scale, ie too late. Also this deal has been signed off on by both states, China and Syria and I do not see this bond being broken by a third party. Yet there is no denying that even if just a little bit true this rumor would make things very interesting going forward... 11/11 GMT 02.35 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Q3 Report A comment on the Q3 Report will be posted after it has been published.. Look for a repeat of Q2 and bits.. 9/11 GMT 23.51 China China has launched a huge economic stimulus plan worth nearly $600 billion... Due to the slowing economy... See earlier postings. 7/11 GMT 04.38 USA - Car Industry Bailout All part of the Oil Market... GM, General Motors is again going to show a loss, which it has done since 1804 sorry 2004.. The company now has the temerity to ask the US Government for Bailout Aid!? Whoīs next! Pizza Hut? As far as GM is concerned I have a thought, and in this call me crazy but.. How about building cars that the customers actually want to buy!!... 6/11 GMT 20.45 Oil - The Contracts WTI closed the day at $60.77 down - 7.0%.. The US Jobs Report out Friday should send the contracts well into the $50īs.. 6/11 GMT 20.08 Central Banks - Bank of England BOE lowers rates by 1.5%.. Desperation is the word! The BOE and Swedens Riksbank raised rates during the middle of this year with as we know not an idea about what they were doing. The Riksbanks vice-chairman admits as much today in saying that "despite the fact that financial crisis happens read early 90īs, we were not prepared for this one".!? 5/11 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude +- 0.0 mmbls (API + 1.8 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.1 mmbls (API + 1.6 mmbls) Distillates + 1.2 mmbls (API - 1.9 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.1 mmbls Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd - 0.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.15 mmbopd - 0.07 mmbopd Refineries 85.3% +- 0.0% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd - 2.3% yoy Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd - 4.8% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 15.9% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 19.1 mmbopd - 6.7% yoy 4/11 GMT 02.30 Central Banks - Australia RBA The RBA cuts interest rates by 0.75% to 5.25%... - RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement. "On balance, it appears likely that spending and activity will be weaker than earlier expected." 3/11 GMT 22.42 Iran - Israel Military Strike There is a Window for an Israeli attack on Iran's Nuclear installations which opens Nov 5... 3/11 GMT 20.31 Oil - The Contracts WTI closed the day at $63.91 down - 5.8%... We are looking for prices in the $50īs.. GM, Toyota etc all are reporting vehicle sales down and way down - 30% or thereabouts. Again note the 200 MA & 600 MA.. 3/11 GMT 03.15 Iran - Oil Output Iran has been again caught lying to the world.. "There is at the moment no stockpile of crude oil floating in the Persian Gulf," - Ali Ashgar Arshi, the head of the National Iranian Oil Company's international affairs department. I wrote, 31/7 GMT 19.29 Iran - Oil Output Iran will halt shipments of heavy fuel oil from August as it builds domestic stocks ahead of winter, and due to a heavy fourth-quarter maintenance season, industry sources said on Thursday.... I wrote on 25/6, "Iran is currently storing about 33 mmbls in 15 VLCC Supertankers, the country has now laid a further order for 3 more VLCCīs. Each with storage capacity of between 1.5 mmbls and 2.0 mmbls. The "official" reason is that Iran is waiting for the Asian Refinery work-over period to end in August/September... Most of the oil stored in the VLCCīs is heavy oil. The thing is that the current 15 tankers have already been storing oil for many months... Asian demand is simply falling and with China, Indonesia and India raising the price of Oil and Diesel we are going to see more Demand Destruction".. 3/11 GMT 02.56 China Look for China to slow down faster than even I expected... At a GDP growth of 5% the country is compared to the rest of the world effectively in a Recession and with statistics from the Communist State as they are we are closer to this point, very close... 3/11 GMT 02.12 Greywolf Fund Up soon... 2/11 GMT 06.03 USA - The Election Not since Jospeh Kennedy bought the 1960 election for his son John Fitzgerald Kennedy has America been on the road to electing a man of less experience than Barack Hussein Obama.. The US and the world are infor four years of "Socialism Lite" with it seems both a White House and a Congress in the hands of the Democrats, in this many of the wannabies have no problem of putting the word Social infront of Democrat. Higher taxes, larger Government, more regulation, protectionism etc.. OK not a problem as far as I am concerned as you simply have to adapt to the new field of play. The worry is that very many of the voters who will put their trust in Obama belive that the age of Camelot will come back and especially a large portion of the black voters will want to see real change ie "to get some of the power".. But as always the business of getting elected is vastly different from actually running the country. Here is where things get sticky as Obama canīt do even half of what people have been lead to expect. How is the left leaning media going to treat this President who was the great hope but turned out to be.... The worry lay in the level of disappointment! Itīs going to be fun watching the Democrats trying to make a horse race out of the next four years..... 30/10 GMT 22.24 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Sinopec Prospectus 30/10 GMT 19.17 China Three interest cuts in six weeks.. Yeah China is insulated from the Global Recession... Not! Look for this to get worse going forward especially as the US vehicle industry is in dire straits. In the US vehicle sales are 17% of the total retail sector. Add to this the spare parts, tools industry where most of anything is Made in China.. 30/10 GMT 19.14 The Market Unless you really know what you are doing, so any bankers reading this...*G* Unless you know what you are about stay out of this market until after the New Year as the usual end of year silly trades will be accentuated by the Global Recession. If you care to dip your feet then sell into any rally as I have pointed to before as they will be either stimulus package or interest rate cut driven.. Cash is King! 28/10 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 0.5 mmbls (API + 1.4 mmbls) Gasoline - 1.5 mmbls (API - 0.8 mmbls) Distillates + 2.3 mmbls (API + 2.6 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.7 mmbls Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.8 mmbopd - 0.3 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.27 mmbopd + 0.80 mmbopd Refineries 85.3% + 0.5% Gasoline Demand 8.9 mmbopd - 3.4% yoy Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd - 5.2% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 13.1% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 18.9 mmbopd - 7.8% yoy 29/10 GMT 07.09 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 2.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.3 mmbls (API na mmbls) Year on year, US retail gasoline demand has dropped - 6.4% and the four week moving average for gasoline demand is down - 8.0%.. 28/10 GMT 17.42 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX The prospectus is in the mail... As I have stated before this deal is done! Sinopec have moved in and are not going anywhere else. The interesting thing in all of this is the huge discount still offered in the market. Any concerns about a too low bid have been erased by trading the discount and currency difference. The rest is just a lazy wait for the money to roll in... This then being my definitely last posting about this subject matter. 27/10 GMT 01.52 China China must not under-estimate the impact of the global financial crisis but its economy is strong enough to weather the storm, the nation's central bank chief says. "The current adjustment of global economic financial markets is the inevitable result of the releasing of unbalanced contradictions that have accumulated over a long period," Zhou Xiaochuan told a parliamentary meeting. We cannot underestimate the impacts of this on our economy." The People's Bank of China would continue a flexible and prudent monetary policy to address "unstable elements" attacking the global economy and strive to maintain fast but stable economic growth, he said. "We must recognise that the outlook of our overall economy is currently good. "The strength of our financial organs are increasing and their profitability and capability to fight risks are also rising, market liquidity is rather ample and the financial system is stable and safe. "We can effectively defend against the impact coming from abroad." - Yeah Right! I predict a low on the Shanghai Composite of around 900 to 1.000... Well that is the stock market but the effect of the Global Recession will be worse for China as it is now part of the global economy as never before. Factories are closing down in the country due to a lack of export orders, many workers are having to go back to their old way of life. In general the pain felt by all the economies across the globe is hitting China aswell. There is no insulation or decoupeling from the Global Economy.. For China this is however a new experience and in this lay the real danger... 23/10 GMT 04.23 Oil - The Contracts Note the 200 MA & 600 MA.. 23/10 GMT 02.42 OPEC - Updated "The meeting this week will see at best a "cut" of 2.0 mmbopd, in so much as this will be a real cut well history is very clear about OPECīs inability to cut real production in a falling market. The market will yawn and move on to the facts and they are that global demand for Oil is Falling and falling Fast. I reiterate this point as I have been doing for longer than I care to remember"... Yesterday OPEC decleared it was having problems finding customers for itīs Oil, ofcoure it is and has been for a long time. Iran has been storing Crude on Supertankers and still is by the way. The whole Oil Complex has had more oil than needed for a long time. Even when WTI was at $147 the world was not running out of oil and not one singular customer could not recieve the Oil demanded. So on Friday OPEC makes a decision and I belive they will do no more than earlier expected because if they turn off the taps and the price of Crude goes higher they are going to find fewer customers for their resource then they have today. When a market has to revert back from Madness to the Fundamentals it is a painfull experience, much like the one we are going through right now. WTI $147 was madness! 22/10 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 3.2 mmbls (API + 2.8 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.7 mmbls (API + 2.1 mmbls) Distillates + 2.2 mmbls (API + 0.3 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 9.5 mmbls Crude Import 10.4 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd - 0.4 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.19 mmbopd + 0.90 mmbopd Refineries 84.8% + 2.6% Gasoline Demand 8.8 mmbopd - 5.3% yoy Distillate Demand 3.9 mmbopd - 5.8% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 9.2% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 18.7 mmbopd - 8.5% yoy 22/10 GMT 01.41 OPEC - Updated The meeting this week will see at best a "cut" of 2.0 mmbopd, in so much as this will be a real cut well history is very clear about OPECīs inability to cut real production in a falling market. The market will yawn and move on to the facts and they are that global demand for Oil is Falling and falling Fast. I reiterate this point as I have been doing for longer than I care to remember... 20/10 GMT 07.19 The Site The Postings and Comments have for some time been very abbreviated and this is due to time constraints. 20/10 GMT 03.00 China GDP growth July - September 9% GDP growth January - September 9.9% I belive on the evidence given that these numbers are as stated before "sweetened".. Much due to Chinas exposure to the US debt crisis in which China has a large stake. Chinas consumption is falling and many if not most of the factories closed for the Olympics are not going to reopen anytime soon. There are many on the ground factors that point to the simple fact that the worlds producer of cheap goods is going to get severly hurt by the Global Economic Slowdown... 19/10 GMT 21.56 Oil - The Contracts South Korea joins the Club when it comes to Financial difficulties.. Just wait until Chinas problems start trickling out.. Global demand for Oil is falling and falling fast. 17/10 GMT 03.39 Oil - The Contracts WTI closed at $69.85, Brent closed at $66.32. The WTI $70 level will probably be a pivot point in the short term and look for more volatility. As to the bottom of this current trend it does look more and more to be the $60 level which brings us back to May/June 2007... Yet there are more shoes to drop out there in the real world so a sub WTI $50 is not out of the question. 16/10 GMT 16.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 5.6 mmbls (API + 2.0 mmbls) Gasoline + 7.0 mmbls (API - 0.5 mmbls) Distillates - 0.5 mmbls (API + 0.86 mmbls) Natural Gas + 79 Bcf Total Petroleum Inventories + 11.8 mmbls Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.5 mmbopd + 0.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.91 mmbopd + 0.06 mmbopd Refineries 82.2% + 1.1% Natural Gas Demand - 7.2% yoy Gasoline Demand 8.8 mmbopd - 5.3% yoy Distillate Demand 3.9 mmbopd - 6.9% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 6.4% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 18.6 mmbopd - 8.9% yoy Demand, demand and what I have been saying for a long time Demand... 15/10 GMT 23.55 Oil - The Contracts WTI closed at $74.54 and this means the $75 support level was out the window. Electronic trade is currently at $73.52... 15/10 GMT 20.34 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out 16/10 at GMT 16.00 I expect, Crude + 6.2 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 4.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas + 89 Bcf Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.3 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.22 mmbopd Refineries 83.0% US retail gasoline demand last week fell by 9.7% compared to last year. This is the second week in a row demand has fallen more than 9% year on year... 14/10 GMT 21.23 Oil - Global Crude Demand US 2004 20.73 mmbopd 2005 20.80 mmbopd 2006 20.68 mmbopd 2007 20.68 mmbopd 2008 20.70 mmbopd (this sites prognosis) EU 2004 14.48 mmbopd 2005 14.54 mmbopd 2006 14.59 mmbopd 2007 14.68 mmbopd 2008 14.55 mmbopd (this sites prognosis) India 2004 2.35 mmbopd 2005 2.35 mmbopd 2006 2.40 mmbopd 2007 2.45 mmbopd 2008 2.48 mmbopd (this sites prognosis) China 2004 6.6 mmbopd 2005 6.4 mmbopd 2006 6.9 mmbopd 2007 7.5 mmbopd 2008 7.8 mmbopd (this sites prognosis) That the US demand for Crude and products is falling can easily be seen on the site. Of greatest interest is the demand structure for China and here I belive more and more that total demand for the year will come in below the prognosis. As with Chinas GDP numbers real statistics for Crude demand are hard to find but if you look hard enough... As for GDP growth which is currently thought to run at about 8% I would caution that this number may be a little bit "sweetened" and actually is lower. OECD and the US, EU all report lower demand for Crude and in producing nations like China and India this will have great effect as the commodities especially Oil and Copper show the size of economic activity and it is falling. In this there is no "magical rescue" for Crude demand and I envisage that actual total crude demand will come in well below my prognosis. 14/10 GMT 02.37 The Global Economy - The Markets Great day Monday! Was it the bottom of this market? I doubt it. Even if Asia is opening on a very optimistic note I am weary as there are a a number of indicators that point to this being no more than a Bear Market Rally. Governments bailing out moronic bankers is one thing but unemployment in the US is on the rise and the world is slowing down rapidly. 2002 saw a crash scenario but it was not a washout and I belive we are due for one... 13/10 GMT 03.29 The Global Economy - Aid Packages For the Australian Government to guarantee all bank deposits uncapped for three years is great.. Yet... 13/10 GMT 03.29 Oil - The Contracts - Updated The demand situation is taking its toll on the contracts as is the general economic slowdown. Look for volatile trade due to the different "help packages" put forward by Governments yet $70 looks set to be the next big target... In this the MA 200 of $75 is a very serious support level to breach. 10/10 GMT 02.19 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Even if I still feel that bid is to low.. You do not marry a stock and given where we are itīs a good deal. So this is my last posting about this company as the deal is done, or rather will be. Time to move on and in this the Team that has made TYK the success it is are not going to sit idle. The next step is going to be very interesting, very interesting indeed. 10/10 GMT 02.15 The Market As stated before this Crisis has not dropped down from a Sunny Summer Sky... This is going to get a lot worse. 8/10 GMT 18.44 Oil - Valuation of Oil Stocks With the fall in the commodity price to todays levels most if not all of the oil sector stocks are priced against a level of $50 WTI.. This ofcourse means that the oil stocks have taken a far larger hit than the underlying commodity which creates in some cases a fairly huge undervaluation of the Oil Sector Stocks.. 8/10 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 8.1 mmbls (API + 9.4 mmbls) Gasoline + 7.2 mmbls (API + 3.4 mmbls) Distillates - 0.5 mmbls (API - 1.2 mmbls) Natural Gas + 88 Bcf Total Petroleum Inventories + 19.6 mmbls Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd + 1.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.4 mmbopd + 0.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.17 mmbopd - 0.03 mmbopd Refineries 80.9% + 8.6% Natural Gas Demand - 7.2% yoy Gasoline Demand 8.8 mmbopd - 5.3% yoy Distillate Demand 3.8 mmbopd - 8.3% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 5.5% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 18.7 mmbopd - 8.6% yoy 8/10 GMT 15.12 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Morskaya-1 The company PR concerning the very early estimates on the recoverable reserves of 230 mmbls is just that a very early and conservative estimate. 230 mmbls is in the mid-case scenario and given the wide expanse of the Lagansky block, 130 square kms little more than a number to work from. Again I would remind all and sundry that this is a Gazprom play with all that entails as far as politics is concerned. I have stated many times before that Oil in Russia is part of the National Security grid... 7/10 GMT 04.30 Central Banks - Australia RBA The RBA cuts interest rates by 1% to 6%... 7/10 GMT 03.44 USA - The Bailout Bill a $700 Billion Dollar Exercise in Futility I wrote, 3/4 GMT 01.55 Iceland - A study in Desperation The Icelandic State has a Secret Plan to Bag the Big Bad Bear... No itīs not Monty Python itīs for real... Apparently Iceland is going to beat the market place and "put them thar bad hedge funds in their place.." Face it you are fair game... And no you canīt beat the market!! Especially as the Icelandic economy has since two years been a very good testbed for the global problems ahead... As stated before this Crisis has not dropped down from a Sunny Summer Sky as it would seem when you hear one politician after another trying to put the whatever back into the bottle... Let the market take care of the market! The decision to put a moratorium on Short Selling is one of the most moronic to date. The Short Sellers be it Hedge Funds or singel entities or whom ever actually called this market exactly right. Let the market take care of the market! 6/10 GMT 22.58 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC - The Bid "TYK today has access to a world class resource in excess of 5.5 Billion Barrels of original Oil In Place in Syria at the known underdeveloped fields of Oudeh, West Tishrine, East Tishrine, Sheikh Mansour, Sheikh Sulaiman and Jeribe." But as of right now TYKS proven net reserves are 187 mmbls which is also what Sinopec is buying at a cost of $10 per barrel. In the larger sceem of things 187 mmbls is less than 1% of Sinopecīs own proven reserves. Those are the basic facts.. Is Sinopec going to renage on this deal? No. Does the current economic environment have any effect on this deal? No. Is a $2 Billion deal a seismic event for Sinopec? No. Do the Syrian and Chinese states object to this deal? No. In fact as I have written before on the 28/9 "That it has been approved by both the Syrian and Chinese State was a forgone conclusion and the bid would never have been made public unless this was the case." Syrias current Proven Oil & Gas Reserves stand at about 44 Billion Barrels of these only 3.5 Billion Barrels is actual Oil the rest is mostly Natural Gas. So why the 20% discount in the stock price? I really do not care. I just know that in Canada today I could buy $31.50 for $22.. You go figure the rest. 6/10 GMT 02.28 China - GDP Growth Looks set to come in at around 8.5% for 2008, and down towards 7% for 2009. Please note that these numbers are being revised and there are far bleaker estimates. 5/10 GMT 23.31 Global Recession Do I belive it will get that bad... Well, be prepared for it because itīs out there lurking... In this Europe is in for a major dowturn so the focus is going to move from the US to the EU, 27 diverse states with in most cases totally different criteria... 5/10 GMT 23.26 Asia - Australia - Heading for a Lower opening Stock markets look set to fall. Oil is trading below $92, down about $2 in early electronic trading. 5/10 GMT 23.01 Australia - Football - The Sea Eagles 2008 Premiers Manly 40 - Storm 0.. 3/10 GMT 07.15 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Ethiopia Lundin Petroleum has signed a farm-out agreement with Global African Energy (New Age) for production sharing contracts in Ethiopia. Lundin will transfer a 15% stake to New Age, in the PSCs covering Blocks 2, 6, 7 and 8, located in the onshore Ogaden basin in southern Ethiopia. Lundin will also transfer a 50% stake in the PSC covering the Adigala Area in northern Ethiopia. New Age will pay a disproportionate share of the costs related to the 2D seismic programmes to be carried out on the blocks, as well as its interest share of Lundin's past and ongoing costs. Lundin Petroleum will remain as operator of all of the Ethiopian blocks. 3/10 GMT 20.41 Oil - The Contracts - Updated WTI closed the day at $93.88 and the trend is accelerating down toward the target of $80, and beyond... The $90 level is an important support level from both a technical and psychological viewpoint and it was tested in mid September.. 2/10 GMT 20.09 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC - The Bid My advice to TYK shareholders.. "Just sit still in the boat!".. A Swedish colloquialism *G* 1/10 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 4.3 mmbls (API + 3.3 mmbls) Gasoline + 0.9 mmbls (API - 0.6 mmbls) Distillates - 2.3 mmbls (API - 3.0 mmbls) Natural Gas + 87 Bcf Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.5 mmbls Crude Import 9.0 mmbopd + 1.9 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.3 mmbopd + 0.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd +- 0.0 mmbopd Refineries 72.3% + 5.6% Natural Gas Demand - 7.2% yoy Gasoline Demand 8.9 mmbopd - 4.5% yoy Distillate Demand 3.8 mmbopd - 8.4% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 1.5% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 19.0 mmbopd - 7.1% yoy 1/10 GMT 13.09 Bayou Bend Petroleum - BBP:V Worth a look! 1/10 GMT 11.00 USA - A new vote on the Bailout Bill a $700 Billion Dollar Exercise in Futility $700 Billion is nothing compared to the forces in the global market and this "saviours package from above" is not going to make one iota of difference in the long run. Let the Market take care of the Market! The smart money will trade into the short term rally created by the Bill and then dump everything... 1/10 GMT 02.31 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC I would like to point out that anyone can make a bid for this company at anytime before the 24th of December or even later for that matter. Yet if a competing bid is submitted during Sinopecīs window of current contractual obligations until the 24th of December with TYK, Sinopec does have five days to make a counter offer. This stock is very much in play... 30/9 GMT 02.17 Australia - The Global Economic Slowdown "The head of China's leading steel company says the Chinese economy and steel industry are both "heading for a downward slide", as hopes fade that China can insulate Australia's resource-dependent economy from the widening global downturn. The comments by Baosteel's chairman, Xu Lejiang, coincide with new evidence that a contraction in Chinese building construction is seriously crimping demand for Australian commodities, like iron ore. "The economy is heading for a downward slide, so the steel industry is certainly heading for a downward slide," Mr Xu told the Herald at a Baosteel conference in Shanghai. 29/9 GMT 22.43 USA - The House of Representatives - Bailout Bill So Free Market Capitalism is still alive and well and living in the USA. Markets and companies fail, that is all part of the system. Right now there are far too many politicians running around like headless chickens trying to regulate and save that which should not be saved. I belive itīs called Socialism.. 29/9 GMT 22.34 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC - Updated "The bid of $31.50 is not good enough".. Well it is getting slightly better.. Depending on which currency you are trading from or have invested in as the $CAD/SEK differential is in play due to the rebate on a deal that will give you a given amount come years end. If the offer is accepted by the shareholders that is. That the Chinese for their part would pull out of this deal is not even conceivable.. 29/9 GMT 01.02 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Muny Deng-1 Third time lucky... 28/9 GMT 00.53 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC - A Comment - Updated The bid of $31.50 is not good enough.. That it has been approved by both the Syrian and Chinese State was a forgone conclusion and the bid would never have been made public unless this was the case. Yet for this deal to happen it needs to be approved by 66.3% of the shareholders. The Lundin family and the board and "some" other major shareholders have said yes to the deal to the tune of 16.2% of the voting rights. Remember it only takes just shy of 34% of all shareholders to say No to the deal for it to be so and here is where problems arise as there are very many "other" major shareholders who are letīs say, less than happy with the current price structure... The point being that there is only a small minority who at this moment have stated a full support for the offer... 26/9 GMT 18.38 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC - A Comment The bid of $31.50 is not good enough.... 25/9 GMT 07.25 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - SINOPEC The Deal is Done! $31.50 or about 200 SEK per share.. 24/9 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 1.5 mmbls (API - 0.1 mmbls) Gasoline - 5.9 mmbls (API - 2.1 mmbls) Distillates - 4.2 mmbls (API - 1.7 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories - 17.9 mmbls Crude Import 7.1 mmbopd - 1.4 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd + 0.07 mmbopd Refineries 66.7% - 10.4% Natural Gas Demand - 7.1% yoy Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd - 3.5% yoy Distillate Demand 3.9 mmbopd - 5.5% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 4.5% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 19.5 mmbopd - 5.3% yoy Demand, demand and yet again demand or rather the lack of it... 24/9 GMT 12.14 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - A Deal All things considered I would be very surprised if these negotiations do not lead to a Deal, very surprised indeed... 23/9 GMT 03.51 Iran - Israel Military Strike The UN talks about sanctions against Iran. While in Israel there is a play for the position of Prime Minister with a twist, as Labor’s Ehud Barak and Likud’s Binyamin Netanyahu are discussing a partnership with the aim of confronting the Iranian nuclear threat... 22/9 GMT 20.03 Oil - WTI Short covering and the dollar sends the contracts to a close of $120.29.. Also there is the short term belife that the financial aid package in the US will stave off a recession, well good luck with that one.. Today was expiration for the October contracts. November is now trading at about $108... 22/9 GMT 13.42 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - A Bid of 175 SEK The notion that a bid of 175 SEK per share would be attractive to the Lundins is totally out of the question.. 22/9 GMT 11.24 Syria - Oil Production Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Sufian al-Alaw on Sunday said there are wide horizons to increase the output and produce more quantities of the oil exploration in Syria, particularly with the existence of good reserves of oil and gas with the potential of finding new wells. "The overall reserve of petroleum and gas in Syria is estimated by 44 billions barrel, and the quantities available for production now are 9 billions, 5.3 billions were produced till today and the remaining 4 billions barrels will be produced during the next years," the Minister said during a press conference on the situation of petroleum in Syria. He added that the production average of oil in Syria reached at 380.000 bpd in 2007 according to daily statistics and the production of gas rose to 20 millions cubic meter per day, saying " Ministry of Petroleum is planning to preserve this level of production during the current year". 22/9 GMT 08.09 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Acquisition I did write, 12/9 GMT 02.28 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Interesting trade in the share... Not without cause one could be forced to comment. This company is as stated earlier very much in play.. You know my view on how "sweet" a bid must be for the company to do the deal... 22/9 GMT 01.31 The Market - Trading Australia puts a 30 day moratorium on Short Selling - Bad Idea! 30 days in the market is a lifetime.. Also these supposedly investor friendly actions are going to hurt the system in the long term. For sure regulation has to be clear and concise and it does lack in this in many areas in many countries but to in retrospect curtail an excisting trading practice is just political panic and just one more way to increase government control. Trade this market very short... 19/9 GMT 19.53 USA - The Death of Free Market Capitalism Socialism rears its very ugly head even in the last bastion of Free Market Capitalism... Saving the Finanace Industry is a very bad idea.. This distorts the natural market forces and says that "never mind if you are a moron the State will bail you out, that is if the fact that you are a moron comes to the surface".. The message it sends is itīs OK to fail but if you do, No worries the tax payer will make it right.. Forbidding Short Selling is even worse as it does seem that the Short Sellers had it pretty much right!... 19/9 GMT 10.25 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Morskaya-1 19/9 GMT 10.19 The Market - Trading Nice uptick on the last day of the week, but I am trading this market very short ie daytrading. Sell into any upturn and end the week in Cash.. Far too many variables out there to contend with and also even if the US "cleans" up itīs financial institutions, as was done exactly 20 years ago. The Global Economic downturn is due to much more than just US banks... 18/9 GMT 19.04 Soviet/Russia - A Missile Test "A Russian submarine on Thursday test-fired a Bulava strategic multiple warhead missile designed to overcome missile defences. The test comes amid Russian anger at US plans to locate a powerful missile-tracking radar in the Czech Republic as well interceptor missiles in Poland to combat what Washington calls threats to global security." 18/9 GMT 13.12 The Site Since the restart of the site it has, as of today seen 10.000.000 Unique Visitors. Thanks.. 18/9 GMT 03.31 Oil - Oil Companies 11/9 GMT 03.20 Oil - Oil Companies With the price of Oil starting to find the Fundamentals again there are huge opportunities starting to open up... More on this... A hint would be, look at TYK, LUPE and PXX.. For a start. TYK being the stock with the most resilience in this negative market.. PXX the most tradeable due to itīs low stock price. Again more on this.. 17/9 GMT 23.42 Central Banks - Sweden The Riksbank In his first comment on the ongoing Global Economic Slowdown and Financial Crisis the chairman of the Riksbank, Stefan Ingves made the following statement... 17/9 GMT 23.20 Australia - The Global Economic Crisis - Part one the Denial Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says Australia's financial institutions are still in a sound position, and better placed than many of their international counterparts. Banking stocks dragged the Australian share market down today, as the bailout of insurance giant American International Group (AIG) by the US Federal Reserve failed to calm global financial markets. "The advice of the regulators is still that Australia's financial institutions are in sound shape, that the order of their balance sheets is strong," Mr Rudd told reporters in Canberra. "There is a world of difference between the circumstances surrounding Australia's financial institutions and those which face financial institutions abroad. "We're not immune to those difficulties, but we are in a strong position to see Australia through."... Yeah Right. 17/9 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 6.3 mmbls (API - 3.5 mmbls) Gasoline - 3.3 mmbls (API - 2.1 mmbls) Distillates - 0.9 mmbls (API + 0.7 mmbls) Natural Gas + 67 Bcf Total Petroleum Inventories - 11.9 mmbls Crude Import 8.5 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.131 mmbopd - 0.04 mmbopd Refineries 77.4% - 0.8%% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd - 2.6% yoy Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd - 2.7% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 7.6% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 19.9 mmbopd - 4.4% yoy The Inventory numbers were never going to be pretty with the aftermath of IKE. But again look at the Demand Numbers - 4.4% on Total Petroleum Demand.... The API stats lean to a build for next week... 16/9 GMT 16.19 USA - AIG - Bankruptcy Unless the US Fed bails AIG out, this company is going to go into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.. The hope of a private equity deal is dead, has been since the weekend. Also the infusion of capital needed looks to be much higher than the previously thought $75 Billion... 16/9 GMT 02.25 Oil - WTI - Brent With much of the US oil and gas industry in the Gulf of Mexico in re-start mode after IKE and the onshore loading infrastructure at LOOP slowly returning to normal you would think the contracts would skyrocket but they do not. Simply because in a crisis on the proportions of what is going on Oil Demand is going to fall even further across the globe and hence short term infra-structural problems are coming in in second place. Note again that the contracts are falling along with the Dollar. 15/9 GMT 23.02 USA - AIG - The Next Shoe to Drop.. Updated Influential insurance industry rating agency A.M. Best has downgraded the ratings of American International Group, from A+ to A... Standard & Poor's cuts the rating from AA- to A-.. Fitch Ratings cuts the rating on AIG from AA- to A.. Given not sizeable ratings changes but for AIG rating status is critical and unless the company can get the $75 billion infusion of capital it will quickly see itīs ratings downgraded by far more than above.. This company is not too big to fail. Warren Buffett had a look at a deal to save AIG. He passed. So did a lot of other smart money that got a shot at an AIG financing over the weekend. AIG is now pursuing the greater fools. But, they are running low on capital themselves which leaves AIG at the edge of liquidation. 15/9 GMT 22.14 Asian Markets With stock exchanges in South Korea, Japan, Taipei and China having missed all of Mondays fun and games due to Holidays, the open in a few hours will be interesting.. 15/9 GMT 12.25 Oil - WTI - Brent With WTI at $95.53 and Brent at $92.23 there is the growing question of Margin Calls and Who is on the wrong side of this equation?... 15/9 GMT 04.44 USA - Lehman Brothers - Chapter 11 Remember Long Term Capital Management which failed in 1998? History... Lehman Brothers has been around for 158 years, I guess the Guys who ran it earlier were a lot smarter. 15/9 GMT 04.13 USA - The Bank Crisis I wrote earlier, and as I have pointed out in many postings on the site the Global Economy is in strife and the effect of the US Banking Crisis will only ripple further across the Globe.. 15/2 GMT 03.23 USA - Dr Greenspan - Recession Former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has stated that the US economy is on the edge of recession and cautioned conditions would continue to erode until housing prices stabilized. Dr Greenspan, speaking before energy executives at a CERA conference in Houston also said the US housing market was a long way from bottoming out. The good Doctor pointed to this as early as April 2007, and with several Fed members both current and past in speeches over the last year and a bit saying the same thing the smart money listens... I know very many players and analysts want to see the back of Dr Greenspan like yesterday, but there is very much to be said for experience and seeing further than the current 24 hour news cycle.... 15/9 GMT 02.20 Oil - WTI The criteria ahead of trade on Monday, US market time. This then with the WTI contract still below $100 in electronic trade, Brent is at $96.45. Nigeria is one factor with "War" decleared by Mend, the rebel group. Note again the fall in the contracts despite a falling Dollar.. 15/9 GMT 01.41 USA - Merrill Lynch Merrill Lynch & Co agree to sell itself to Bank of America Corp for roughly $44 billion. $29 a share.. 15/9 GMT 01.22 Oil - WTI - Brent In the extended electronic trade WTI fell to a low of $99.38 this then despite a weaker dollar, please note.. The contracts are holding below $100 and given the happenings in the US concerning Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch with one of the two heading into bankruptcy protection, the contracts are not going to head North anytime soon.. 12/9 GMT 02.28 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Interesting trade in the share... Not without cause one could be forced to comment. This company is as stated earlier very much in play.. 12/9 GMT 01.21 USA - NYMEX - Oil Contracts Extended Trade 14/9 Due to Hurricane IKE CME Globex will hold extended electronic trade on Sunday 14/9... CME Globex and ClearPort trading sessions for energy products only will begin on Sunday, September 14 at 10:00 a.m. EST, 15.00 GMT with a 9:30 a.m. pre-open on CME Globex. All trades will be for the Monday, September 15 trade date. 11/9 GMT 04.07 Central Banks - Sweden Riksbank - EU ECB - Australia RBA - New Zealand RBNZ The New Zealand Central Bank goes - 50 basis points down to 7.5%. Because, "The economy is in a recession and inflation will slow".. In this context does not the Swedish Riksbank look like a Ship of Fools? - Yes they do... Because they are! 11/9 GMT 03.20 Oil - Oil Companies With the price of Oil starting to find the Fundamentals again there are huge opportunities starting to open up... More on this... 11/9 GMT 02.48 Oil - WTI - Brent Falling US Petroleum Inventories, Hurricane Ike, Russia, North Korea with a possible leadership problem, Iran etc... Still the contracts fall, much is due to the US$ for sure but the fact is that "Gobal Economic Slowdown" is finally starting to register as just that a fact. The fall in the contracts is as stated many times before not Seasonal. With OPEC in a politically unsafe place as far as production quotas are concerned the retreat to a Fair Price Level for Oil is only going to continue. In this China and India ie the super growth economies are not going to be able to bail the world economy out of the slump because they are now such an integral part of it... So much for the Theory of Decoupling! 10/9 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 5.9 mmbls (API - 21.6 mmbls) Gasoline - 6.5 mmbls (API - 3.0 mmbls) Distillates - 1.8 mmbls (API + 3.5 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories - 15.2 mmbls Crude Import 8.6 mmbopd - 1.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.117 mmbopd + 0.07 mmbopd Refineries 78.2% + 10.4% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd - 1.2% yoy Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd - 0.4% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 7.6% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 20.1 mmbopd - 3.8% yoy It is all about Demand... For the first time in months the Distillate demand numbers go negative and it is now an across the board fall in demand. Ofcourse there are many factors to this but the end result is that US demand for Petroleum and products is down and the major reason is simply a new economic situation. The huge spread between the DOE and API numbers is as I have stated before due to the criteria difference in the reporting. 9/9 GMT 21.19 Oil - WTI $103 was an important support level and with a close of $103.26 looked to hold but with after hour trade down at a low of $101.74 I doubt the $103 level will hold in open trade. Next big support level is $98.65 with $100 the psychological barrier. Sell into any rally.. Things are going to get very volatile, very volatile indeed. 8/9 GMT 02.47 Oil - OPEC OPEC will at itīs meeting on Tuesday hold the current quota or perhaps trim some of the excess production, nothing more. 8/9 GMT 02.43 USA - Fannie - Freddie & Ike - Oil Contracts With the US Taxpayer again bailing out "Bankers" and Ike possibly a worse Gustav the Crude Contracts will rise in early trade. Sell into the upturn as it will not last.. 6/9 GMT 20.49 Oil - WTI "$106 an important support level in the short term about to be broken - again." As it was even if the close was just a smidgen above the support level. As stated before there will be trading ranges along the trend line.. 5/9 GMT 09.42 Oil - WTI $106 an important support level in the short term about to be broken - again. 5/9 GMT 05.38 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - A bid for the Company - Updated GMT 07.57 By the way anyone bidding is going to have to put up a lot of cash for this jewel, compared to the current valuation... That is not to say that TYK "is not in play".. Because it has been for some time.. As a strange coincedence to this posting there is an article in the Swedish Daily Dagens Industri quoting Livemint.Com.... ONGC Videsh is again fishing and with the latest bid for Imperial Energy Corporation PLC fresh of the table this rumour could have legs, but as stated before the offer has to be very "sweet".. 240 to 270 SEK at least. Yet I would deem that cheap given what is coming down the pipe.. 5/9 GMT 03.31 Oil - WTI 4/9 GMT 22.12 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Syria French Oil major Total has signed three agreements with Syria for both oil and gas. The interesting part is the production extension agreement. For TYK this just puts more focus on the country and itīs oil industry that really is not that big when it comes to the foreign oil companies in country... 4/9 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 1.9 mmbls (API + 4.2 mmbls) Gasoline - 1.0 mmbls (API + 1.0 mmbls) Distillates - 0.4 mmbls (API - 0.15 mmbls) Natural Gas + 90 Bcf Total Petroleum Inventories - 3.6 mmbls Crude Import 9.8 mmbopd - 0.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd - 0.5 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.1 mmbopd - 0.04 mmbopd Refineries 88.7% + 1.4% Gasoline Demand 9.4 mmbopd - 1.6% yoy Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd + 2.7% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 9.3% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 20.3 mmbopd - 3.5% yoy Itīs just a simple fact - Demand! You can have all the inventory you want but if Demand is not consuming it well then you just have a lot of inventory.... With the Hurricane Season about to peak on 10/9 it bears to watch the API stats some as they more reflect Crude and products in the system.. Just a note. 4/9 GMT 08.31 Central Banks - Swedens Riksbank - EUS ECB - Australias RBA The Riksbank raises rates by 25 basis points. Incompetence! There simply is no other word for it. If you have not seen this global economic slowdown coming for the last year well you have to wonder about the competency of the Board of the Riksbank. On par with the Bengt Dennis era of trying to protect the currency from market forces in the early 90īs... 3/9 GMT 19.37 Saudi Arabia - Khursaniyah oilfield Saudi Arabia has started pumping oil from the Khursaniyah oilfield with a potential production peak of about 500,000 bpd. The oilfield is the largest single increment to global oil production for several years and was initially due to start up in December. As to how much is actually being pumped up today is less apparent. 3/9 GMT 04.00 USA - SPR - Strategic Petroleum Reserve Interesting that the first company to ask for a withdrawl from the SPR is CITGO which is the State owned Venezuelan oil company. CITGO has 1.500 gas stations nation wide and several major refineries... The asked for amount is 0.25 mmbls. 3/9 GMT 03.26 Oil - Oil Companies I would again remind all and sundry that most if not all oil companies are and have been for more than 18 months valued against an oil price of $80 or there abouts... The current correction to Fundamental levels just brings the oil sector back into the money. $147 was just silly and since $100 it was mostly a joke, good for speculators in the contracts but little else. $80 is a restart level for oil company stock prices... 3/9 GMT 02.49 Central Banks - Swedens Riksbank - EUS ECB - Australias RBA The RBA cut as expected itīs rate by 25 basis points and if the Riksbank had any sense it would do the same but alass Central Bankers are working to a script written 10 to 20 years ago and in an other economic age... The world is a little bit different today... The only central bank that has to date got it mostly right is The Fed and this will lead the US out of recession faster than the rest of the bunch... 3/9 GMT 02.37 Oil - WTI The contract ended the day at $109.71 down - 5.0%. The intra day low of $105.46 was interesting and within the margin spoken to before. A close below the support level of $110 is significant and the next major attack will be on $100 after a time of lateral moves all depending on as we all know other factors. Note please that this sites predictions of how low the Oil Price is going to go, all other considerations aside is $80 and in this the Saudi Arabian position tends to par that analysis... WTI $80 is a floor level given todays criteria. 2/9 GMT 04.55 Central Banks - Swedens Riksbank - EUS ECB - Australias RBA I did write, 3/7 GMT 22.32 Central Banks - Swedens Riksbank - EUS ECB Swedens Central Bank was founded in 1668 and is the worlds oldest, the ECB was founded in 1998 just prior to the introduction of the Euro. Two sides of the same coin as it were... The problem is that age and experience have not in one bit helped the Riksbank in its decision and the ECB young and naive has not had the time to learn the lessons of history. By raising interest rates by 0.25% both are going to do more harm than good when the global economy is heading into a very deep downturn. The Riksbank is to add hurt to injury as it proudly announces that more rate hikes are coming. The Australian Reserve Bank is likely to cut its cash rate to 7% from 7.25%... And not a month too soon... This then with annualised GDP growth about to slow to 2.9%... 2/9 GMT 03.12 Oil - WTI The $110 level which in this is a major support level is going to brake and as the contracts have also broken the 200 MA well as stated before the Default Bull market for Oil is over... This even in the face of the fact that about 85% of the US Gulf of Mexico rigs are shut in over the weekend. The US Federal Government promise to release Crude from a well filled SPR does alleviate the shut in by some large measure. No refiners have yet asked the Government for oil from the SPR to help replace supplies disrupted by Hurricane Gustav... Interesting week ahead... With WTI heading for the $105 to $109 levels.. 30/8 GMT 03.42 Climate Change - The North West Passage The Northwest Passage is a sea route through the Arctic Ocean, along the northern coast of North America via waterways amidst the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. And due to Naturally ocurring Climate Change the waterway is again as in 2000 about to be open to transit from the Atlantic to the Pacific. This has ofcourse been going on for millennia but it was in 1906 it was given a note when Roald Amundsen traversed it in the ship Gjøa... 29/8 GMT 01.57 USA - Labor Day Weekend Monday 1 September is a Holiday. 28/8 GMT 15.43 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Syria - WT-276 With oil shows during the drill and a total payzone of about 140 meters through three different structures the upcoming test will be very interesting. 28/8 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Natural Gas + 102 Bcf against the expected build of about + 85 Bcf... Natural gas prices have been falling and this report on itīs own is market negative. 28/8 GMT 02.01 Russia Will the real Soviet/Russia please stand up... Russia has finally reverted to itīs Default Mode ie one of Paranoia, Distrust, Nationalism and in no small part a Jealousy of everyone who are not Russian. The Russian State is and has for a long time been Paranoid about the world at large and felt a great Distrust against foreigners and their ultimate intentions and in this mix add Jealousy which inspires a competitive nature but not of the purest kind but rather the darker side of "So you think you are better than Me!"... Nationalism is the end product and also the basis for all of the above because if there is something there is no lack of in Russia itīs Nationalism. Russians have always and want still to be a great nation a strong nation a feared nation and if that entails a dictator or two well so be it. Do not forget this is a country that still has a sizeable amount of the population who hark back to the days of Stalin. Or so it can be argued.... Much of this may be true, and well it is up to your interpretation but the fact remains that the current leadership in the Kreml actually is speaking to the people of Russia and for whatever reason they are listening and are for the most part behind the actions of the rulers. The latest comments made by the Prime Minister and President and other advisors and analysts all sound very much the same. Disregard the WTO and NATO, the EU is a puppet of the US etc.. We are not afraid of anything, including the prospect of a new Cold War - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev August 26, 2008 No state has the right to intervene militarily in the territory of another state simply because there are individuals there with a passport issued by that state or who are nationals of the state. Attempts to apply such a doctrine have plunged Europe into war in the past. And we have reason to remember how Hitler used this very doctrine little more than half a century ago to undermine and attack substantial parts of central Europe. - Swedenīs Foreign Minister Carl Bildt August 10, 2008 From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic, an "Iron Curtain" has descended across the Continent. Behind that line lie all the capitals of the ancient states of Central and Eastern Europe. Warsaw, Berlin, Prague, Vienna, Budapest, Belgrade, Bucharest and Sofia, all these famous cities and the populations around them lie in what I must call the Soviet sphere, and all are subject in one form or another, not only to Soviet influence but to a very high and, in many cases, increasing measure of control from Moscow. - Winston S. Churchill March 5, 1946. History... Lets not repeat it! 27/8 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 0.1 mmbls (API - 3.5 mmbls) Gasoline - 1.2 mmbls (API - 2.1 mmbls) Distillates +- 0.0 mmbls (API + 0.7 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.3 mmbls Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd - 1.0 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.4 mmbopd + 0.6 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.13 mmbopd - 0.50 mmbopd Refineries 87.3% + 1.6% Gasoline Demand 9.4 mmbopd - 1.6% yoy Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd + 2.2% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 6.9% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 20.2 mmbopd - 3.6% yoy 27/8 GMT 01.44 Oil - Russia - Iran - Neka-Jask Pipeline There is movement here in the now more than one year old project to pump 1.0 mmbopd through a 970 Km long trans Iranian pipeline with now it seems Gazprom more in the main part of the picture. Kazakhstan is set to pump more of its growing oil production through Iran to Western Markets. The Iranian tariff rates in this would be far lower than those of the competing pipeline vendors.. 27/8 GMT 01.10 EIA - US Petroleum Demand US domestic Petroleum Demand, was 19.55 mmbopd in June. Down from 20.70 mmbopd June 2007. 27/8 GMT 01.07 Oil - WTI Hurricane Gustav and the Geopolitical risk premium with the USA and Russia about to play a game of Navy Chicken in the Black Sea only keeps the contracts at the current level.. The base for a bull market is well gone. Slowly the demand situation is also being aired by official agencies as demand is falling. For the long time follower of this site this is far from news. September is the Peak Hurricane Season so the contracts will trade in a range with $113 now a strong support level even if it has been tested and beaten but short term $113 is a very important level. If all of the above ie Storms, Russians and other Geopols abate then the contracts will head further down... With NATO and Russia on a collision course you would expect the contracts to see more upturn. My thought is that the Real Global Economic Slowdown is far outweighing the new Soviet/Russian power play, for the moment... Note the RSI, below 50 still... 22/8 GMT 02.24 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX "Gazprom wants to enter North America, just one small thing - North America is not just anywhere... Pretty much all of the Oil Market is spoken for by Canadian and US companies and to get a foot in you need to buy your way in"... 21/8 GMT 22.21 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Updated "The stock jumped + 5.3% in Stockholm and + 5.7% in Canada on fairly good volume for both exchanges. As to why well the scuttlebutt is", That there are rumours of interest again in the company. These are far from confirmed and hence why I only now update the earlier comment, yet the strongest factor behind the climb for the stock is the real lack of action after the report. A fair price today is in the region of $30 rumours or not... The rumour does however touch on something I have pointed to before ie the Russians need to feed - Gazprom... Syria a country "close" to home and with its prominence as a piece in the ongoing gigantic military/resource/political game is ofcourse of prime interest.. 21/8 GMT 22.19 Oil - WTI Close above $121 on Geopoliticals and the falling Dollar which are pretty much the same thing. The one really interesting question does have to be - Where does the storm called Fay go next? 21/8 GMT 01.52 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX The stock jumped + 5.3% in Stockholm and + 5.7% in Canada on fairly good volume for both exchanges. As to why well the scuttlebutt is that... More on this. 20/8 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 9.4 mmbls (API + 12.4 mmbls) Gasoline - 6.2 mmbls (API - 2.0 mmbls) Distillates + 0.5 mmbls (API + 0.3 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 8.2 mmbls Crude Import 11.0 mmbopd + 1.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.8 mmbopd -+ 0.0 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.73 mmbopd + 0.60 mmbopd Refineries 85.7% - 0.2% Gasoline Demand 9.4 mmbopd - 1.6% yoy Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd + 3.3% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 6.2% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 20.2 mmbopd - 3.0% yoy Itīs about the Demand Picture... Crude Imports break the barrier. Low Refinery numbers hits the Gasoline Inventory but demand for the product is also down so.. A market negative report along the trend... Total Petroleum Demand 20.2 mmbopd last year it was 20.9 mmbopd.. Check the API stats. 19/8 GMT 01.29 Oil - WTI Iran puts a dummy satellite into space, Russia is still not out of Georgia... The oil price reacts to a storm called Fay for about two hours then heads back down.. The basis for a bullish oil market is gone with demand falling on a global scale and again the world not running out of oil.. I know I sound like a broken record but there you are. $110, $108, $105 etc.. The $110 level is one of great resistance but when broken and itīs not If but When the rest of the trip down will be as stated earlier.. Geopoliticals notwithstanding.. 18/8 GMT 02.34 Oil - WTI Look for an upturn after close on Friday, but very temporary as the $110 level is the close term target. Geopoliticals notwithstanding.. 18/8 GMT 00.17 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - Q2 Report - Comment A new TYK in the making... Todays valuation is just silly. 18/8 GMT 00.14 Oil - Exploration In the last 25 years of Oil Exploration the last 5 years have seen more finds in total than for the whole preceeding 20 years... this then much due to technology. Technological advancement is one of those small insignificant details that the Church of Peak Oil tends to omit in its sermons... 17/8 GMT 23.46 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Q2 Report - Comment "The stock price shows strength in a period of travails for the sector, the up-coming Q2 Report will I belive more than lend credence to that strength"... You know this is just going keep getting better and better.... 17/8 GMT 23.10 Russia - Military Invations US Presidential elections are always held during an Olympic year and of more interest is that Soviet/Russia seems to like to invade and occupy countries along the same timeline. Hungary 1956, Tcheckoslovakia 1968, Afghanistan 1978, Georgia 2008... Europe 2012? 17/8 GMT 22.53 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Q2 Report - Updated I did write, "This will be a forward looking report with much substance as the company is far larger than its current share price." And I stand by that comment all the way.. Today LUPE has two major problems as I see them judging by the reactions to the report. The company with currently 54 licenses world wide is perhaps too diversified and then there is Russia.. In this building future reserves costs money and this ofcourse has an effect on the bottom line even if this actually was better than expected. For every 100.000 barrels of oil LUPE produces it is replacing 184.000 barrels through exploration and well enhancment and here Luno and Lagansky are key. One could argue that the company should sell all other assests and concentrate on the largest find in the North Sea over the last ten years and the as yet not official major find in the Caspian, ie a new restart as was done with Lundin Oil. The market would have less parrameters to adjust to and as is the case with for example TYK easier company reports to read. Yet this would go against the whole concept for Lundin Petroleum, ie to grow through exploration and building oil reserves on a global basis. This strategy has in the past also given the company problems when it comes to valuation and understanding. I long said sell the minority asset in the Sudan and did change my stance on this but with little real conviction and with two drills with negative outcome it could be apt to return to the long held view yet with todays criteria it is a bit late in the game. 54 licenses in a vast geographic spread is a liability but it is also the companys strength even if this is not always easy for the market to see. The North Sea ventures are a case in point as when the company turned itīs eyes to this some say mature oil bearing region not much was made of it but as it turns out it is a critical part of todays production.. The biggest problem today is Russia! There are many investors who will not think of investing in Russia or in companies with a connection to Russia.. And when Russia behaves the way it has done and it seems will do well then the Russian connection is a huge liability. TNK-BP and Yukos etc other resource plays made by the Russian state simply scares investors and with good cause. Yet as I have written earlier the Lundins have a far better "finger on the pulse" than most foreign companies in Russia. The simple conclusion is that the valuation of LUPE as a whole is smaller than the sum of the individual parts and is therefore heavily undervalued today and has been so for a long time. A short term strategy to enhance shareholder value would be to down-size the company, again... A possibility yet not one that I envisage anytime soon, yet... The more likelly outcome is that shareholders will have to console themselfs with the fact that the company is as stated undervalued and that there are a few key components that can turn this around very quickly, Lagansky and the North Sea.. 13/8 GMT 22.24 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Q2 Report I did write, "This will be a forward looking report with much substance as the company is far larger than its current share price." And I stand by that comment all the way.. More on this.. 3/8 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 0.4 mmbls (API - 2.0 mmbls) Gasoline - 6.4 mmbls (API - 5.9 mmbls) Distillates - 1.7 mmbls (API - 0.6 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories - 5.4 mmbls Crude Import 9.7 mmbopd - 0.5 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.8 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.14 mmbopd - 0.16 mmbopd Refineries 85.9% - 1.1% Gasoline Demand 9.4 mmbopd - 1.9% yoy Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd + 4.3% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 8.5% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 20.2 mmbopd - 2.8% yoy Again a build in the SPR. Otherwise fairly logical numbers as the demand is falling and for Gasoline the driving season is only three weeks away from being over. The lower Import numbers take a big chunk out of the inventory levels... 12/8 GMT 00.09 Oil - WTI Note the 100 MA and 200 MA... 11/8 GMT 20.45 China - Oil Demand Chinas July crude Oil Imports fell - 7% to about 3.25 mmmbopd, the lowest since December 2007.... Also Chinas PPI jumped + 10% in July compared to last year and this then the highest level since 1996. CPI is out tomorrow.. 11/8 GMT 19.52 Iran - US/Israel Military Strike - US Fifth Fleet On station in the Arabian Sea, Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are today, the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Peleliu. The first a Nimitz Class Nuclear powered air craft carrier with its battle group the second an amphibious assault ship. On thier way to the region are the USS Theodore Roosevelt, the USS Ronald Reagan and the USS Iwo Jima. Two Nimitz class carrier groups and another amphibious assault ship ie the USS Iwo Jima. This would be the largest contingent of carrier battle groups and assault ships in the region since prior to the Gulf War... 11/8 GMT 00.59 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Q2 Report 13/8 This will be a forward looking report with much substance as the company is far larger than its current share price. 10/8 GMT 23.40 Georgia - Oil Pipelines Will the current conflict effect the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) or South Caucasus pipeline? Probably not as this would put the whole thing on a very different level. Russia is out to prove a point and has itīs agenda but to target the pipelines.... No not so much. By the way Kurdish separatists have already done much to curtail supply through the BTC last week... With little effect on the price of oil. WTI is currently at $116.35 up $1.15 + 1.0%. 10/8 GMT 21.27 Georgia From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic, an "Iron Curtain" has descended across the Continent. Behind that line lie all the capitals of the ancient states of Central and Eastern Europe. Warsaw, Berlin, Prague, Vienna, Budapest, Belgrade, Bucharest and Sofia, all these famous cities and the populations around them lie in what I must call the Soviet sphere, and all are subject in one form or another, not only to Soviet influence but to a very high and, in many cases, increasing measure of control from Moscow. - Winston S. Churchill March 5, 1946. 9/8 GMT 23.24 Oil - WTI The $116 support level was broken and with confidence. A low of $114.62 could in the short term turn this market to a positive upturn especially as Geopoliticals have broken through the front door with Russias Power Grab... The $112 level and $110 are almost the same in this and the "mind game" level of $100 is the next big Support Level.. On the way down $108 and $104 are there on the chart but of smaller interest as when Oil moves it does so with conviction... This is far from a Seasonal Correction it is apt to state again. Graphs up later... 7/8 GMT 00.42 Oil - The Contracts - Oil Stocks Just remember as I have pointed to before that most oil companies are currently valued at a WTI price level of about $80, this then despite the latest run-up for Crude to the just short of a $150 level. Perversly one might think but there you are the closer the price of Crude gets to the valuation of individual oil shares the better the same shares will fare in the future. Itīs just basics... 6/8 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 1.7 mmbls (API - 2.6 mmbls) Gasoline - 4.4 mmbls (API - 1.8 mmbls) Distillates + 2.8 mmbls (API + 3.1 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.6 mmbls Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.3 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd Refineries 87.0% - 0.2% Gasoline Demand 9.4 mmbopd - 2.3% yoy Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd + 3.5% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 7.1% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 20.10 mmbopd - 2.6% yoy The one to watch going forward is Distillate fuel inventories which are at the upper end of the five year storage levels. Given that Distillates are the only products seeing an increase in demand the inventory levels match the demand side, yet with a warm winter and laging economy.. Again the Total Petroleum Inventories showed a build and for the last ten weeks have done so but one time.. 5/8 GMT 20.09 Oil - WTI September Crude closed at $119.17 down $2.24, or -1.2%.. Next support level is $116. The Fed did their bit but itīs demand and economic slowdown ie the Fundamentals that are the primary cause. If you still belive this is seasonal well good luck to you.. US retail demand for Gasoline ie at the pump fell -3.0% last week this then the 15th week in a row of falling demand, at a time where demand should be increasing. The Driving Season was it seems a Parking Season for many... The contracts will ofcourse retrace some of the downturn due to trading and a profitable one at that if you know what you are about but the definite trend is down and the target level is a stated earlier in the $80 region. Look for a volatile period during a market correction to a more fundamental level. 5/8 GMT 13.40 Oil - IEA Oil consumption in the U.S. and OECD nations are weakening but China and India have yet to show signs of demand destruction, making it unclear if the price fall to below $120 a barrel from records indicates a real turning point, the IEA head said on Tuesday. "We don't know if this is a turning point. We'd like to know but we don't have an answer yet," Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) IEA told Reuters, adding that the current $119-$120 levels are still too high, after prices plunged from records near $150 a barrel. Tanaka said the IEA was satisfied with OPEC's delivery on its commitment to increase supplies and was not asking for more, but wanted current production levels to be maintained. Tanaka, who will speak at a meeting of energy officials at the ASEAN Energy business forum on Wednesday, added that he supported the decision by some of countries in this region to cut fuel subsidies and said the removal of all subsidies would help promote energy efficiency. 4/8 GMT 22.07 Oil - WTI Close on a three month low. If The Fed sees the need to stave off inflation on Tuesday the down turn for the contracts will accelerate. Yet the technical supports are $120, $116, $112, $110... The trend is as stated earlier down unless a geopolitical thing occurs. Dated Brent closed at $119.14.. 31/7 GMT 19.29 Iran - Oil Output Iran will halt shipments of heavy fuel oil from August as it builds domestic stocks ahead of winter, and due to a heavy fourth-quarter maintenance season, industry sources said on Thursday.... I wrote on 25/6, "Iran is currently storing about 33 mmbls in 15 VLCC Supertankers, the country has now laid a further order for 3 more VLCCīs. Each with storage capacity of between 1.5 mmbls and 2.0 mmbls. The "official" reason is that Iran is waiting for the Asian Refinery work-over period to end in August/September... Most of the oil stored in the VLCCīs is heavy oil. The thing is that the current 15 tankers have already been storing oil for many months... Asian demand is simply falling and with China, Indonesia and India rasing the price of Oil and Diesel we are going to see more Demand Destruction".. 31/7 GMT 15.33 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Q2 Report 14/8 The stock price shows strength in a period of travails for the sector, the up-coming Q2 Report will I belive more than lend credence to that strength... 30/7 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 0.1 mmbls (API - 2.1 mmbls) Gasoline - 3.5 mmbls (API - 3.8 mmbls) Distillates + 2.4 mmbls (API - 0.6 mmbls) Natural Gas + 65 Bcf Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.6 mmbls Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.12 mmbopd Refineries 87.2% Gasoline Demand 9.4 mmbopd - 2.4% yoy Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd + 4.0% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.7 mmbopd - 6.8% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 20.20 mmbopd - 2.4% yoy Jet Fuel demand is down - 6.8% year on year. 29/7 GMT 23.56 Oil - WTI The intraday low of $120.42 broke the rather serious technical support level of $121.. Fundamentals like demand... 28/7 GMT 18.25 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API - Total Petroleum Demand in May The latest revised numbers are, US total Petroleum demand 19.729 mmbopd - 0.891 mmbopd - 4.3% yoy US total Gasoline demand 9.216 mmbopd - 0.218 mmbopd yoy US total Distillate demand 3.936 mmbopd - 0.132 mmbopd yoy US motorists drove less for a seventh consecutive month in May, as vehicle-miles traveled on all US roads fell 3.7% during the month from a year earlier, the Federal Highway Administration said in a report. The seven-month slide is the longest downward streak since 1979. 25/7 GMT 23.55 Oil - WTI - Brent - Demand The penny is finally starting to drop in the marketplace that The World is not Running out of Oil and of more importance Demand is falling and falling heavily. The US, EU, Asia, China and India well pretty much across the complex Demand has been destroyed by a too high price for Crude and the lack of Real Demand. But you have heard this from this site before.... 25/7 GMT 16.34 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia As I have pointed to earlier Oil In Russia is part of the National Security Complex and the last few days have seen the effect of this with a number of different lets call them happenings. The Russian State wants to have control over its commodity assets yet at the same time knows that to reap the rewards of those assets it needs experience from outside the country, yet it wants control. TNK-BP is a case of things "gone real bad" and there are many reasons but mainly it is a question of adapting to Russias new stance. In this The Lundin Group by way of Lundin Petroleum know exactly how to adapt and in the case of Lagansky get a far better deal than most foreign resource companies would have ever got. You know what to do... 24/7 GMT 23.21 Pearl Exploration - Tanganyika Oil - EOR - Heavy Oil Both companies share many administrative functions and in this also the most important one - Technical. PXX and TYK are building a huge technical expertise in the EOR field, which is not new but not that old either yet largely overlooked. Shell are one of the instigators of the technology by fault as it was a technical glitch that turned it into something very much more... Again both PXX and TYK are building a substancial expertise in this field in two rather different localities with divergent criteria. 24/7 GMT 22.26 Oil - WTI 23/7 GMT 23.21 Oil - USGS - The Arctic 90 Billion Barrels.. An interesting study from both an Oil and Geopolitical perspective.. The most interesting part is, "The survey only applied to undiscovered reserves. Exxon Mobil, Shell, Gazprom OAO and other energy producers have already found 400 oil and gas fields that hold the equivalent of 240 Billion Barrels. Most of those discoveries remain capped because of a lack of pipeline or shipping facilities to haul the petroleum to markets... On a combined basis, the undiscovered reserves of oil and gas in today's report amount to 412 Billion Barrels." 23/7 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 1.6 mmbls (API + 1.1 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.9 mmbls (API - 1.2 mmbls) Distillates + 2.4 mmbls (API + 0.54 mmbls) Natural Gas + 84 bcf Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.9 mmbls Crude Import 9.8 mmbopd - 1.0 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.10 mmbopd Refineries 87.1% - 2.4% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd - 2.4% yoy Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd + 3.6% yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.7 mmbopd - 2.5% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 20.25 mmbopd - 3.3% yoy A further slight build in the SPR.. I did say my expectations were "out there" and it was Imports again which made the expectation fail. The large build for Gasoline and Distillates is interesting as we are fast coming up on the transition period for both, from Summer to Winter storage numbers. The products will have a negative effect on the Crude Price as will I stress again Demand. Natural Gas storage levels are 12.7% below that of 2007, on weakening Demand... 23/7 GMT 11.30 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Wellington Management As I wrote earlier, "Itīs at times like these that Real Oilmen step up to the plate and buy something of great value at a bargain basement price *G*".. The 5% position bought through Wellington Management is just that. Buying something of great value for a bargain.. 22/7 GMT 23.20 Oil - WTI Further correction in the Contracts as expected and this should/could go as far as $110 or even lower, the lower the better but a turn at around $110 would mean a 60% correction after the latest run-up. The Fundamentals for Oil lay somewhere between $70 and $80 as pointed to before but as stated earlier a hard level to reach given other Criteria. The Dollar being the critical component as a further weakening would upset the cart... 22/7 GMT 19.37 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 4.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.2 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 3.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas + 100 Bcf Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.1 mmbls Crude Import 10.7 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.18 mmbopd Refineries 89.9% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Jet Fuel Demand 1.7 mmbopd Total Petroleum Demand 20.3 mmbopd Again itīs all about Demand... Cooler than normal weather over the past weeks means Natural Gas is going to take a hit as it is "Driving Season" for gas. Cooler Weather reduces demand for gas from electric utilities to generate power to run air conditioners.. As for Gasoline well the "Driving Season" has looked bleak since the 4th of July Weekend and it donīt look set to get better... I know to look for a further large build this week is "out there" but the demand numbers and Petroleum in the system lends me to belive that which is stated.. For instance US Retail Gasoline Demand was down - 3.3% last week from a year ago, the 13th consecutive weekly decline... 22/7 GMT 19.19 Oil - The Contracts Further correction in the Contracts as expected and this should/could go as far as $110 or even lower, the lower the better but a turn at around $110 would mean a 60% correction after the latest run-up. The Fundamentals for Oil lay somewhere between $70 and $80 as pointed to before but as stated earlier a hard level to reach given other Criteria. The Dollar being the critical component as a further weakening would upset the cart... Graphs after close of Day... 21/7 GMT 00.04 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky - Morskaya-1 A flow rate of 2.500 bopd in the test phase with restrictions in rate due to technical considerations is good. 32 API is lower than expected but still Sweet Crude. It should be reiterated this is flow from a test well with again restrictions due to technical reasons so look for this to improve. Looks more and more like a half a Billon barrel find... Also the worries and angst concerning the partnership with Gazprom should by now have been settled once and for all. Lupe are a 50% minus one share partner with Gazprom in Lagansky. 20/7 GMT 00.15 Global Warming - Climate Change "Mars is being hit by rapid climate change and it is happening so fast that the red planet could lose its southern ice cap. Scientists from Nasa say that Mars has warmed by about 0.5C since the 1970s. This is similar to the warming experienced on Earth over approximately the same period. Since there is no known life on Mars it suggests rapid changes in planetary climates could be natural phenomena."..... "Who would have "thunk it!".. 19/7 GMT 00.29 Oil - The Contracts - Updated A fourth day of falling Crude prices and the single biggest weekly drop... Four days do not a trend make. Yet, in this there is an interesting twist as a lot of the Oil Sector stocks are today valued at around the WTI $80 level.. As I have pointed to recently. At times when the correlation between the Crude Price and Stock Price diverge you get a market for Oil Stocks that is frustrating at best, as has been pretty much the case since Oil headed north of $100.. Hence a pullback in the price of Crude to say the $70 to $80 range would bring it way back to the Fundamentals yet in todays market with the geopolitics and the new found love for commodities this might be a stretch even if it would do more good than any "economic packages" put forward by Governments or Central Banks. For Oil Stocks the further the Crude Price falls the better in the longer term as the Stocks would again be deemed attractive especially the Oil Companies that today have added assets that do not show up in the Share Price. The silver lining in this that as the price of Crude drops the stock Prices will not follow anyway near as much and for many have no effect as all as they are today already valued against a lower Price of Crude... 18/7 GMT 00.37 India - Oil Demand 1993 1.30 mmbopd 1994 1.40 mmbopd 1995 1.60 mmbopd 1996 1.70 mmbopd 1997 1.80 mmbopd 1998 1.80 mmbopd 1999 2.00 mmbopd 2000 2.10 mmbopd 2001 2.20 mmbopd 2002 2.20 mmbopd 2003 2.35 mmbopd 2004 2.35 mmbopd 2005 2.35 mmbopd 2006 2.40 mmbopd 2007 2.45 mmbopd 2008 2.48 mmbopd (this sites prognosis) In this it should be noted that India and Chinas daily combined demand for oil is only half of that of the US.. And only one eighth of the Worlds total Demand. In the case of India I am not forgetting The Jamnagar Refinery which is due to come online in July/August. Making it the worlds third largest refinery with a capacity of 1.2 mmbopd... 18/7 GMT 00.10 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Syria - Turkey The idea of creating a joint Oil Company between Syria and Turkey has been kicked around for years and in 2005 got some traction but not much happened. With Syria more coming into the Wests fold and Turkey a NATO partner maybe this time something will actually happen. The completion of the company's establishment is targeted for 2008. The purpose of the company is to produce oil from fields in Syria, Turkey and third countries in this Turkey, during Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's trip to Iraq earlier this month, won approval to form a consortium to bid for oil exploration rights in Iraq and the Turks here have ongoing talks to make a deal with Royal Dutch Shell regarding exploration. If this project actually can get off the ground and it is slated to do so during 2008 well it then puts a larger spotlight on the Syrian Oil Industry, which has been out in the cold due to US sanctions etc... 17/7 GMT 19.45 Oil - The Contracts Down by $16 in three days and Natural Gas down 8% today alone on building Inventories but more importantly lesser Demand. Now three days do not make a market trend but the signs are all out there as I have pointed to repetedly, even if there are in this seasonal factors to take into consideration the fact is there is no lack of Supply of Oil! Iran has supertankers filled with Crude with nowhere to go, and they are far from alone among the producers in the Middle East. The share prices for Oil Stocks have been going sideways or down despite new ATHīs for Crude and this is but one of the many signs out there. The thing is that a lower Oil Price closer to the Real Fundamentals is going to be good for Oil Stocks going forward. It ainīt going to hurt the Global Economy either.... Yet three days do not constitute a trend.. 16/7 GMT 15.41 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - Blackrod Sagd Pearl Announces Expansion Of Interests In Blackrod Sagd Project The Company has entered into an agreement to acquire an additional 30% working interest in 3,886 contiguous hectares of oil sands leases in its Blackrod project, located south of Fort McMurray, in the Athabasca Oil Sands region of northern Alberta. The acquisition is expected to close on August 20, 2008. The cost of acquisition will be paid as follows: - $4.5 million payment on closing - $4 million payment on SAGD pilot achieving gross accumulated production of 100,000 Bbls - $4 million payment on full scale commercial development achieving 5,000 Bbl/d of production as reported to the Alberta government for the duration of one month - $3 million payment on the full scale commercial development achieving 10,000 Bbl/d of production as reported to the Alberta government for the duration of one month Pearl President and CEO Keith Hill stated, "We are very excited to expand our interests in this low risk large scale heavy oil property. Blackrod is one of our four core properties that we believe will propel Pearl into a substantial heavy oil project development company over the next 24 months.” 16/7 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 3.0 mmbls (API + 5.1 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.4 mmbls (API + 1.6 mmbls) Distillates + 3.2 mmbls (API + 5.4 mmbls) Natural Gas + 104 Bcf Total Petroleum Inventories + 7.5 mmbls Crude Import 10.8 mmbopd + 1.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.15 mmbopd Refineries 89.5% + 0.3% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd - 2.1% yoy Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd + 2.5 yoy Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd - 2.2% yoy Total Petroleum Demand 20.3 mmbopd - 2.0% yoy Crude Imports and Lower Demand... A market negative report. The API stats show Inventory levels in slightly different parts of the system.. Natural Gas injection was way over expectations. 16/7 GMT 03.28 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude - 2.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline - 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 2.2 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 9.8 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd Refineries 89.3% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Jet Fuel Demand 1.6 mmbopd Total Petroleum Demand 20.4 mmbopd Retail Gasoline Demand last week was down - 5.2% year on year, which results in negative demand numbers for the 12th Week in a row... 15/7 GMT 01.15 Dr Greenspan I wrote and took heed from, 21/11 GMT 02.01 Dr Greenspan The good doctor called the events we are heading into very early this year and I for one have had more than an eye on that prediction in all trades during the year. The signs of late as I alluded to earlier are all there for a major correction or at least a fall due to the "R" word being more and more a fact for the US economy. Several sectors in the US are already in recession and with Freddie Mac the latest to post a warning - The signs are more than out there... History! Learn it or you are forced to relive it! 14/7 GMT 20.56 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky - Morskaya-1 Several things are I know about to happen and they are that the first estimates from Morskaya-1 will put the potential reserve at just shy of half a Billion barrels. Next Lupe will become a 50-50 partner with Gazprom as the Options are exercised. The climate for foreign oil companies in Russia is going to get better going forward on many fronts but mainly on the earnings side. The share price will remain redicously low even in the near future simply because and I here reiterate earlier postings there are too many mechanics for the market to digest.. So you know what to do... Oh by the way check out Gazproms Iranian Deal!!... 14/7 GMT 02.02 Oil - Updated as part of the post was not published earlier Supply and Demand... That is the conventional way to view the equation but when we are entering a time of economic slowdown you have to set your mind to the fact that it is not Supply that is driving the market but rather Demand. The US is slowing down on the demand side and last weeks Natural Gas numbers are a point worth noting. The EU through Eurostat tells you nothing as is the wish of the politicians in the region but Demand in the EU is falling as is the Demand in China where for some obscure reason, well maybe not that obscure the demand numbers are coupled to Imports. Again tells you nothing! Look for Real Demand Numbers below. The point is that Demand stats should be more heavily weighed against the Inventory numbers.. The Oil Industry is not populated with Dummies and in this Inventories Stats more reflect the sentiment going forward. Case in point the drop in Inventory numbers for several months where the Oil Industry has seen the writing on the wall and adjusted accordingly. And with a real fall in Demand for both Crude and Products the Industry is in some parts correct. The interesting part in this is that the Demand side of the equation is given very little media or concern for it seems most analysts and investors. Partly to blame for this is the ever present "Peak Oil Sect" whose belivers are getting more and more fanatical in their prophecies of impending Doom and Gloom. Every new oil find in the World must chill the marrow of the true belivers... Sorry for I digress from the subject.. The short story is that Demand numbers are more worth watching than Supply stats going forward. 14/7 GMT 01.29 USA - Fannie Mae - Freddie Mac Free Market Capitalism on Hold! Yet again the Government by way of The Fed ie Taxpayers are set to bail out Incompetent Bankers. The Financial Sector goes through this every 8 to 12 years where Banks and Financial Institutions get themselves into strife. Only to be saved ultimately by The Taxpayer. 10/7 GMT 22.07 Russia - Gazprom - Libya - The Lundin Group I have touched on this earlier, Libya has the largest proven oil reserves in Africa, followed by Nigeria and Algeria. It has total proven oil reserves of about 41.5 billion barrels and it produces about 1.8 million barrels of oil a day. About 80% of Libya's oil reserves are located in the Sirte basin, which is responsible for 90% of the country's oil output. Libya also has proven natural gas reserves of 52.8 trillion cubic feet. It exports increasing amounts of natural gas to Europe through the Greenstream underwater pipeline, which connects Libya with Sicily in Italy. From there, Libyan natural gas flows to the rest of Europe. A tasty target for a company like Gazprom which delivers about 25% of Europes Energy needs. Gazprom is on the offensive in many parts of Africa and Middle Asia, all close to a huge market ie Europe. For a group like The Lundin Group with close ties to Russia and Gazprom in particular this is ofcourse of interest. In Syria for instance a country with dwindeling current oil reserves due to under-investment and sanctions there is huge potential... Do not forget that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is a former Gazprom Chairman... When a major exporter to the European market is considering buying all the spare capacity of Oil & Gas a country like Libya produces well then you have moved the level up a notch.. 9/7 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 5.9 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 0.9 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories - 3.3 mmbls Crude Import 9.5 mmbopd - 2.5% year on year Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd - 0.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.15 mmbopd Refineries 89.2% + 0.0% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd - 2.1% year on year Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd + 1.3% year on year Jet Fuel Demand 1.6 mmbopd - 2.2% year on year Total Petroleum Demand 20.4 mmbopd - 1.8% year on year 7/7 GMT 22.18 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook is due out Tuesday... Look for Demand to be Declining. As if you did not already know this as a reader of this site.... 7/7 GMT 16.12 The Oil Price - Updated I have long warned about the bubble in the Oil Price and have been called wrong many times, fine I can live with that. Yet just because you hold the belife that something is over-priced it does not have to stop you from trading it, as has been the case. But with the clear understanding that the air is thin at altitude. There are many parameters that are converging as far as I see to make me belive that the air is getting very, very thin... As stated before when commodities correct it usually gets very ugly very quickly. Just a warning. Happy trading! Oh by the way much of the downturn in the Oil Contracts today is due to the economic slowdown in the EU Zone due to wait for it, higher commodity prices especially for Oil! This then is lowering the demand expectations for just Oil... 6/7 GMT 21.33 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky - Morskaya-1 Interesting week, weeks ahead... I think many investors and probably more analysts are a little if not even a lot confused by the mechanics behind Lupes Russian Affair. The options deal with Gazprom while easy to understand one would think is maybe a bit more than some can follow. Add to this the fact that Lupe were fairly coy about the Morskaya-1 drill and you get the resulting weakness in the price reaction in the stock. As to why they said "not enough" is all part of the Russian situation which it must be said is not that difficult to work through if you take into account the Family ties to Russia and the long history in Gazprom, Vostok, Valkyries etc.. Itīs at time like these that real Oilmen step up to the plate and buy something of great value at a bargain basement price.. *g* Seriously I belive the mechanics of the whole thing just are too much for those who have not been too long in the Oil Patch... 5/7 GMT 02.55 Australia - The Climate Change Hysteria Sorry but I have to say that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's hand-picked climate change adviser Professor Ross Garnaut is a moron... Sadly for he is but one of many. 4/7 GMT 03.05 Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria A worthy repost... 3/7 GMT 22.32 Central Banks - Swedens Riksbank - EUS ECB Swedens Central Bank was founded in 1668 and is the worlds oldest, the ECB was founded in 1998 just prior to the introduction of the Euro. Two sides of the same coin as it were... The problem is that age and experience have not in one bit helped the Riksbank in its decision and the ECB young and naive has not had the time to learn the lessons of history. By raising interest rates by 0.25% both are going to do more harm than good when the global economy is heading into a very deep downturn. The Riksbank is to add hurt to injury as it proudly announces that more rate hikes are coming. Riksbanken is a Dinghy on the Global Sea and has no control over global or even regional factors. The ECB on the other hand is a giant Super Tanker that is as easy to control especially when all aboard are travelling in different economic time zones. 0.25% does not stop Inflation it just reinforces that which it tries to alleviate. Both banks could just have done nothing and let the Free Market forces take their course. But now... 3/7 GMT 12.48 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky - Morskaya-1 So there it is then. This is a major oil discovery in one part of a very large structure and in this light it is prudent by the Company to be Conservative in estimates as to how large the find actually is. Early estimates of reserves are more than often revised and with the Lagansky structures vast area I would be very surprised if the revision would be in the negative. It is only through further drilling and testing that the full extent of the find becomes apparent. Also do not forget the Gazprom play in this and oilīs importance in Russia.. A great day though! 2/7 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 2.0 mmbls (API - 1.3 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.1 mmbls (API + 0.1 mmbls) Distillates + 1.3 mmbls (API - 0.01 mmbls) Natural Gas 85 Bcf Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.3 mmbls Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd - 2.5% year on year Gasoline Imports 1.4 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.15 mmbopd Refineries 89.2% + 0.6% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd - 1.7% year on year Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd - 0.5% year on year Jet Fuel Demand 1.6 mmbopd - 3.5% year on year Total Petroleum Demand 20.3 mmbopd - 1.9% year on year The short story is that Demand for Crude, Gasoline, Distillates and Jet fuel is falling! To make any money in this situation Refiners have to protect the Crack Spread ie the margin made on producing products from Crude. With Crude prices off the chart well Refiners are running in slow-motion. Total Petroleum Imports are 6.7% below last year. Crude storage is 15% below last year for the simple reason that Oil Companies just are not importing more Crude because - Demand is Falling! 2/7 GMT 11.35 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Wan Machar-1 - Pa Buong The initial information was correct and Wan Machar-1 was as reported a "duster".. The rigg is now on its way to the Pa Buong site. 2/7 GMT 00.37 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Target is as stated before $30. As a waypoint... 2/7 GMT 00.34 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX Looking for $3.5 as a Target. 2/7 GMT 00.26 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 1.2 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 0.6 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 3.1 mmbls (API na mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.8 mmbls Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.1 mmbopd Refineries 89% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Jet Fuel Demand 1.5 mmbopd Total Petroleum Demand 20.3 mmbopd 2/7 GMT 00.19 IEA - Oil Demand The IEA forecast global demand will rise to 86.9 mmbopd in 2008, down 1.4 mmbopd from the 88.3 mmbopd projected in last year's report. The IEA also lowered demand forecasts for the years 2009 to 2012, citing weaker economic growth and the sharp rise in oil prices as factors curbing oil consumer demand. 1/7 GMT 11.58 Iran - US/Israel Military Strike - US Fifth Fleet At a media briefing in Bahrain Monday 30/6, US Vice-Admiral Kevin Cosgriff warned that the United States and its allies would not allow Iran to hamper shipping in the Gulf and close the Strait of Hormuz which carries oil from the world’s largest oil exporting region. 30/6 GMT 23.07 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Syria "The Reserve and Production Report from Tishrine... You know this is just going to get better".. A few points Syrias current Oil proven reserves are falling due to sanctions and a less than comprehensive energy policy yet most is down to Syrias political standing. There are but 13 or 14 oil companies in the country and TYK is one of them with it is more and more becoming apparent to the market, actually something to sell... And more as we do not yet know the real extent of the companies proven reserves, but you can make more or less educated guestimates from the facts presented. Or better yet just do your homework... This is just going to get better.. 29/6 GMT 20.14 Iran - Oil Output Irans daily Oil output reached 4.23 mmbopd on June 27.. Average daily output last year was 4.1 mmbopd. The year end target is 4.28 mmbopd. 28/6 GMT 22.52 China - Oil Demand I would like to revisit a posting etc.... 1993 2.5 mmbopd 1994 3.0 mmbopd 1995 3.3 mmbopd 1996 3.5 mmbopd 1997 4.0 mmbopd 1998 4.5 mmbopd 1999 4.6 mmbopd 2000 4.7 mmbopd 2001 4.8 mmbopd 2002 5.0 mmbopd 2003 5.3 mmbopd 2004 6.6 mmbopd 2005 6.4 mmbopd 2006 6.9 mmbopd 2007 7.5 mmbopd 2008 7.8 mmbopd (this sites prognosis) The high price of Oil has forced China to look to Coal as itīs more than primary source of Energy. However the recent Earthquakes and Floodings have pushed up the consumption of Diesel but this looks set to abate going forward and the post Olympic Games months will again see Coal play a larger part in the energy complex ie lower demand for Crude and Products... Also do not forget that China is very vulnerable when it comes to consumer slow down in the Western economies. My Prognosis for the year still stands, with an interesting caveat that demand could actually remain neutral or even fall slightly.... 28/6 GMT 22.34 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky - Gazprom Gazprom wants to go Global and become a major Oil & Gas Company on that stage. North America is ofcourse along side with the Russian domestic market high priority and primarily Canadian companies have been in discussions with the Company. Just one small thing - North America is not just anywhere... Pretty much all of the Oil Market is spoken for by Canadian and US companies and to get a foot in you need to buy your way in... In this you need to buy companies with reserves as yet untapped and with a huge future potential... The Lundin sphere have close ties to the Russian energy and political structure. Few get the deal Lundin did for Lagansky, as I have pointed out many times before. See where I am going in this? 27/6 GMT 11.48 China - Oil Demand I would like to revisit a posting from 18/2 and 14/5.... 1993 2.5 mmbopd 1994 3.0 mmbopd 1995 3.3 mmbopd 1996 3.5 mmbopd 1997 4.0 mmbopd 1998 4.5 mmbopd 1999 4.6 mmbopd 2000 4.7 mmbopd 2001 4.8 mmbopd 2002 5.0 mmbopd 2003 5.3 mmbopd 2004 6.6 mmbopd 2005 6.4 mmbopd 2006 6.9 mmbopd 2007 7.5 mmbopd 2008 7.8 mmbopd (this sites prognosis) More on this.. 27/6 GMT 11.47 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky - Gazprom Interesting words from Alexei Miller CEO Gazprom. More on this... 26/6 GMT 01.16 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Syria The Reserve and Production Report from Tishrine... You know this is just going to get better.. 25/6 GMT 19.17 USA - The Fed - No Rate Change Well a little bit of Nothing for Everybody.. Reading the statement The Fed is it seems still waiting for the next shoe to drop, somewhere and most likely in the "X" sector.. X because there are many candidates.. 25/6 GMT 15.31 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky - Lost in Translation Oh by the way "Tight Hole" does not mean "Dry Hole"... *g* This is a Gazprom play and in Russia Oil is a component of National Security hence the very scant or total lack of information... 25/6 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 0.8 mmbls (API + 1.6 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.1 mmbls (API + 1.1 mmbls) Distillates + 2.8 mmbls (API + 3.2 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.4 mmbls Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.1 mmbopd Refineries 88.6% - 0.7% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd - 2.2% year on year Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd - 1.1% year on year Jet Fuel Demand 1.6 mmbopd - 3.6% year on year Total Petroleum Demand 20.3 mmbopd - 3.2% year on year Lower Refinery numbers and good Imports jack up the Crude storage. Look at the demand numbers! Forget the summer of 2008, demand numbers are at the 2003 level... 25/6 GMT 01.01 Iran - Oil Output Iran is currently storing about 33 mmbls in 15 VLCC Supertankers, the country has now laid a further order for 3 more VLCCīs. Each with storage capacity of between 1.5 mmbls and 2.0 mmbls. The "official" reason is that Iran is waiting for the Asian Refinery work-over period to end in August/September... Most of the oil stored in the VLCCīs is heavy oil. The thing is that the current 15 tankers have already been storing oil for many months... Asian demand is simply falling and with China, Indonesia and India rasing the price of Oil and Diesel we are going to see more Demand Destruction.. 24/6 GMT 15.06 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 0.4 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline - 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.3 mmbopd Refineries 89.8% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.7 We should see a Crude build for the first time in six weeks due to the healthy Import numbers yet last weeks API stats make me weary and as such we could see a further week of lower Crude storage. Import and Refiners again are the story. 23/6 GMT 18.01 NYMEX - Oil Contracts 70% of the trade in contracts is non-commercial ie made by traders who do not have a need for actual delivery of oil. Hence the trades are done solely for - the trade, read speculation. 23/6 GMT 17.59 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky - Updated Again I hear "hydrocarbons"... In this it is worth pointing out that both Wan Machar 1 and the earlier drill in Tengis 1 did show "hydrocarbons" during the drill. This however is no garantee for an actual oil find. Also Wan Machar 1 may not be the total loss first thought.. 21/6 GMT 01.05 Iran - Israel Military Strike I touched earlier on the notion that the attack by Israel on Syria was a test run, well by all accounts it does seem that a recent major Israeli military exercise appeared to be a detailed practice for a potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities... 20/6 GMT 00.01 China - Oil Demand With China on the path to increasing the price of Oil & Diesel by 18% the so far subsidised price levels should weaken demand - Nothing fixes the high price of Oil like the high price of Oil.. Especially when it is manipulated higher by subsidise in the "Booming" economies like China, India and most of South East Asia. Remember what happened prior to the Asian Crisis...! OPEC was pushed to produce more because the "Tiger Economies" in Asia needed more Oil, yet as it turned out what they needed was more Reality! History Boyz and Girlz, history. If you donīt know then you are forced to re-live it. 18/6 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 1.2 mmbls (API - 3.1 mmbls) Gasoline - 1.2 mmbls (API - 2.4 mmbls) Distillates + 2.6 mmbls (API + 1.4 mmbls) Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.26 mmbopd Refineries 89.3% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.6 Five weeks of falling Crude stocks does play a part, yet also demand is falling. Total product demand is down 1.3% year on year, Gasoline down 1.8% yoy and Jet Fuel is down 1.9% over the same period. This matters... $5 Gasoline in Kalifornia (say it like Arnold) and on the East Coast is going to hit demand going forward. Again additions to the SPR.. 18/6 GMT 00.44 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 1.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas + 63 Bcf Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd Refineries 89.0% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 3.4 I aplogize for the lack of updates last week! The US is still adding to the SPR despite the "high" price of Crude. 16/6 GMT 15.57 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky This being a Gazprom play all the way information is scant, yet there is a very hushed whisper about "hydrocarbons".. Nothing to bank anything on but as itīs out there and I heard it you get to read about it here. 12/6 GMT 22.49 OPEC The organisation finds itself in a bit of a conundrum as it is asked to supply more oil to a world that actually is demanding less or at best pretty much the same as over the last few years. I know the "Peak Oil" sect will tell you anything else but the truth is the world is not running out of oil and there are no customers left standing with empty fuel tanks... For some obscure reason very many politicians/people/investors etc belive that oil producers are stupid. The oil industry knows very well on which side of the sandwich the butter is and as such produce oil accordingly. As I have written before however "Peak Oil" is good business for the Oil Industry, "For oil companies the peak oil buzz is great.. Basic "drug-dealer" sales technique get the guy hooked and then keep telling him supply is tight... Hell the world has been running out of oil since the first oil was found. In the early 70īs a canvas of 500 economists showed that they thought the mean price of oil by the year 2000 would be $98 and that oil would run out by 2025"... Nothing like a bit of deep rooted self-fulfilling Prophecy... Iran is storing oil in super tankers off-shore, many other producers are claiming failing production levels and then like Norway suddenly increase production ever so slightly but still... Oil is Business! Itīs just Business... 12/6 GMT 22.47 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX 20 MA... We are in the realms of the pull-back and I do not see it backing off much further, quite the opposite. 30/5 GMT 12.23 A Realistic Alternative Fuel to Oil As you do from time to time while riding my Harley I ran out of Gasoline.. The road was great and the weather perfect and well sometimes these things happen. I knew there was a filling station further up the road so off I went, walking. With the filling station in sight I see an empty Coke bottle in the grass. I pick it up and consequently fill it with 2 liters of Gasoline. Back at the bike I empty the bottle into the tank and turn the motor over and soon the sound of a real bike is heard again. Now find me an alternative source of fuel that can be put into a used bottle of Coke and carried in your hand to run a motor vehicle and Iīll buy the concept.... 30/5 GMT 09.47 The Oil Price Nothing fixes the high price of Oil like the high price of Oil... Global demand for Oil is falling and again the World is still not running out of Oil... The EIA said this week that US crude demand in March fell to its lowest level for that month in five years, a fresh signal that consumers are struggling to cope with high prices. Asian countries have started reviewing fuel subsidies, which have sheltered motorists from the shock of steep price rises, intensifying fears of an Asian energy demand slowdown. Yesterday, India's oil minister, Murli Deora, said the government would take a decision on raising fuel prices in the next two to three days. Taiwan, Indonesia and Sri Lanka have already raised domestic fuel prices... 30/5 GMT 01.56 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX This puppy is set for a bit of a run..... 29/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Posted late due to technical problems. I apologize for this.. Crude - 8.8 mmbls (API - 8.7 mmbls) Gasoline - 3.2 mmbls (API - 3.0 mmbls) Distillates + 1.6 mmbls (API - 0.26 mmbls) Natural Gas + 87 Bcf Crude Import 9.0 mmbopd - 0.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd - 0.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.25 mmbopd Refineries 87.9% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 9.7 Tanker off-loadings have been having short term problems on the Gulf Coast hence the totally out-of-whack numbers.. 29/5 GMT 01.00 The Price of One Gallon of Gasoline World Wide Please note that India and China both heavily subsidise the price of Gasoline. In this Gasoline is sold in India at about $2 per gallon less than the average market price. 1 US gallon is 3.78 liters. One liter of Gasoline costs $0.03 in Caracas, Venezuela. One liter of Gasoline costs $0.09 in Tehran, Iran.... More on this!
Nation City Price in USD Regular/Gallon
Netherlands Amsterdam $6.48
Norway Oslo $6.27
Italy Milan $5.96
Denmark Copenhagen $5.93
Belgium Brussels $5.91
Sweden Stockholm $5.80
United Kingdom London $5.79
Germany Frankfurt $5.57
France Paris $5.54
Portugal Lisbon $5.35
Hungary Budapest $4.94
Australia Sydney $4.92
Luxembourg $4.82
Croatia Zagreb $4.81
Ireland Dublin $4.78
Switzerland Geneva $4.74
South Korea Seoul $4.71
Spain Madrid $4.55
Japan Tokyo $4.24
Czech Republic Prague $4.19
Romania Bucharest $4.09
Andorra $4.08
USA $3.72
Estonia Tallinn $3.62
Bulgaria Sofia $3.52
Brazil Brasilia $3.12
Cuba Havana $3.03
Taiwan Taipei $2.84
India $2.78
Lebanon Beirut $2.63
South Africa Johannesburg $2.62
Nicaragua Managua $2.61
Panama Panama City $2.19
Russia Moscow $2.10
Puerto Rico San Juan $1.74
Saudi Arabia Riyadh $0.91
Kuwait Kuwait City $0.78
Egypt Cairo $0.65
Nigeria Lagos $0.38
Iran $0.35
Venezuela Caracas $0.12
28/5 GMT 22.42 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX 28/5 GMT 22.39 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude - 1.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.2 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 0.9 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas + 85 Bcf Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd Refineries 88.2% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.4 A note is that Gasoline demand at the retail level has fallen for the last five weeks... 27/5 GMT 22.12 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky A repost of a repost.. 20/9 2007 GMT 17.22 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky - E.Mor-4 In lieu of a spud date for Lagansky it may be of interest if I repost, well an earlier post.... *g* The E.Mor-4 test well was drilled in the early 1980's and tested 445 boepd. Much earlier in the 1960īs a well was drilled, close to what became the E.Mor-4 site it was however not tested but proved oil finds in the Jurassic sands strata. Both wells were drilled approx 8 km west of the structure culmination. So we have two test drills and oil shows in both.... In this it could be of interest to also repost the Degolyer & MacNaughton study from 31 Dec, 2005... The assumations on the potential of this field are well worth the read... 27/5 GMT 10.12 Somalia - Range Resources - RRS:ASX - Africa Oil Corp - AOI:TSX The 2D seismic survey has started... The shoot is being carried out in the Dharoor Valley in northern Puntland and is 2.600 km long. 26/5 GMT 23.54 Brazil - Petrobras - PETR4:BS - PBR:NYSE Petrobras does it again this time in the Mexican Gulf... With the Stones-3 well in the Walker Ridge area. 26/5 GMT 22.32 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX Close at the high of the day above 200 Day MA.. 25/5 GMT 23.31 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Indonesia - Rangkas Block Lupe does well from the previous tender round with a potential winner in the Rangkas block onshore West Java. A further 25 blocks will be up for tender on the 29/5 and after that another 21 in October. Please note that the Rangkas block onshore West Java is a new block as the tender offered for 26 blocks in October 2007 contained 12 old blocks... A Petroleum Systems Analysis Study of the Rangkas-Bitung Basin was carried out in 2007... I would say that Lupe got an interesting "pick of the new litter".. 25/5 GMT 00.24 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX & Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX I wrote, *3/12 2007 GMT 09.32 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX & Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX OK a little bit more about TYK... And PXX... Many synergies.. *4/7 2006 Pearl Exploration - PXX:V A company within the Lundin sphere, actually shares office space and directors with Tanganyika Oil. Syria and Israel are talking to each other, US sanctions against Syria, an Israel/Syria understanding a wedge between Iran and Syria... Companies with US and Syrian assets... More on this... 22/5 GMT 01.43 Brazil - Petrobras - PETR4:BS - PBR:NYSE Brazilian Petrobras has confirmed the presence of oil in pre-salt reservoirs on Block BM-S-8 in the Santos basin. The formation test had proved the presence of oil in well 1-PRSA-532A-SPS. Preliminary analyses shows oil gravity to be between 25 and 28 API grade, comparable to that of the other pre-salt oils found in the Santos basin. The well, the first on the block, lies in 2139 metres of water about 250 kilometres off Brazil's Sao Paulo state. The well was drilled to total depth of about 6773 metres, tapping oil accumulations at about 6000 metres. 21/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 5.4 mmbls (API - 4.1 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.8 mmbls (API + 0.8 mmbls) Distillates + 0.7 mmbls (API + 2.0 mmbls) Crude Import 9.2 mmbopd - 0.5 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd Refineries 87.9% + 1.1% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 0.4 Way off the charts and ofcourse this is a market positive report. One of the the last injections into the SPR... 21/5 GMT 10.07 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX There is such a thing as a non-denial denial which is a sort of equivocation that hails from the 1970īs. A non-denial denial looks like a denial at first yet.... 21/5 GMT 00.44 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 0.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.6 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas + 96 Bcf Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.25 mmbopd Refineries 87.5% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.5 With a stop called for further build of the SPR and all the focus on again Imports and Refinery runs it is another transition week that is difficult to call. The total petroleum inventories are set again to show a build. 20/5 GMT 20.53 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX The most interesting thing right now is to know how much a company like ONGC Videsh Ltd would pay for Pearl.. An estimate would be, given the companies current valuation something in the region of $5 - $7 per share. As to how much the company itself values things well that is another matter but anything below $5 per share should be a no-go area.. 20/5 GMT 09.46 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX ONGC Videsh Ltd is having a good look at this company... 20/5 GMT 00.26 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX "Have we been here before? Yes!" The point being that if you have been around the Oil Patch for longer than awhile you learn one thing of importance, donīt be fooled be an over-reaction... Especially to a "Wild Cat" drill - itīs the Fundamentals. Spiced with "that which is about to unfold"... OK so itīs a tricky balance but again - itīs the Fundamentals. 19/5 GMT 03.29 WTI 18/5 GMT 16.08 China - Earthquake - 8 The Earthquake that hit China on the 12th of May has been revised up to a strength of 8.0 on the Richter Scale. Interesting in this is that the Olympic Games are set to start August 8 - 8/8/8 - at 8:08 pm.. The Earthquake hit exactly 88 days from the opening of the games.. 8 in this being a lucky number in Chinese culture. 17/5 GMT 22.21 Iran - US Military Strike The USS Mount Whitney has taken up station off the Lebanese coast. For what the Sixth Fleet says is "to support additional communication requirements for our ships already underway." The USS Mount Whitney is a Blue Ridge class command ship, and is the flagship of the United States Navy's 6th Fleet. She is also the command and control ship for Commander Joint Command Lisbon and Commander Striking Force NATO. The Mount Whitney is arguably the most sophisticated Command, Control, Communications, Computer, and Intelligence ship ever commissioned.... 17/5 GMT 01.14 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX The target level was $23.. Next target would be $30, with a short pull-back on the way up.. 16/5 GMT 11.19 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Lagansky Drill imminent.. 16/5 GMT 04.28 USA - Gulf of Mexico This is very old news I know but the - Wilcox Formation... Just check it out. Chevron, Statoil and Devon Energy for sure have. 16/5 GMT 02.40 The Great Global Warming Swindle - A Repost The film is worth watching especially for those who are indoctrinated by the media CO2 fluff.... One fact for instance is that only about 0.04% of the Earth's atmosphere is Carbon Dioxide CO2. Nitrogen 79%, Oxygen 20% and Argon 0.93% make up much of the rest... 16/5 GMT 01.49 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX "I usually do not comment on shares I do not favour simply because there is no money in it! But when it comes to PA Resources well..." Actually I have commented on the company twice once this year and also in November of 2007 I belive the 27/11 to be precise. Just show me one thing! How much is the company actually going to spend on exploration going forward? Producing oil from depleting oil fields without a serious financial intent to replenish the Reserve does give you a great profit margin but little else. To be a great Oil Man you have to be more than a very good accountant... 14/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 0.2 mmbls (API + 0.7 mmbls) Gasoline - 1.7 mmbls (API - 1.5 mmbls) Distillates + 1.4 mmbls (API - 2.4 mmbls) Natural Gas + 93 Bcf Crude Import 9.9 mmbopd - 0.7 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd - 0.6 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.21 mmbopd Refineries 86.6% + 1.6% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.0 Lower Imports and higher Refinery output are the reasons. SPR injection again... 14/5 GMT 02.40 China - Oil Demand I would like to revisit a posting from 18/2.... 1993 2.5 mmbopd 1994 3.0 mmbopd 1995 3.3 mmbopd 1996 3.5 mmbopd 1997 4.0 mmbopd 1998 4.5 mmbopd 1999 4.6 mmbopd 2000 4.7 mmbopd 2001 4.8 mmbopd 2002 5.0 mmbopd 2003 5.3 mmbopd 2004 6.6 mmbopd 2005 6.4 mmbopd 2006 6.9 mmbopd 2007 7.5 mmbopd 2008 7.8 mmbopd (this sites prognosis) "In this note that about 47% of Chinas Crude is imported. This sites estimate for 2007 demand was 7.6 mmbopd... See earlier postings." For many years media both Financial and Tabloid, hard sometimes to tell the difference have posted Chinas Oil Demand in numbers pertaining to itīs Imports. In this the import numbers have been huge as Chinas Oil Industry is lackluster at best yet if you study the actual demand increase it is significant but less "headline stuff"... My point? Study the same demand numbers for the "old" producers of consumer goods in Europe, East Europe and the US... Now letīs talk about the new low-cost production countries like Vietnam.... 13/5 GMT 23.47 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 3.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 0.9 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas + 82 Bcf Crude Import 10.5 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.6 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.21 mmbopd Refineries 85.6% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.0 Imports and Refiners... 3/5 GMT 23.05 Iran - US Military Strike President Mahmoud Ahmadinejadīs latest proposal to reduce Iranīs crude output is just more of the same from a regime that seem intent on constant provocation. Now there is a flip-side to this and that is that Gasoline and Diesel are heavily subsidised in Iran and as long as the locals get their Gasoline more or less for free then everyone is fairly happy with what is otherwise a failing economy.. Yet the world is not running out of Crude but Refining Capacity and in this Iran has a valid argument of sorts evenso the country Imports about 60% of itīs Gasoline needs so it is a thin edge to balance on. Remember that Iran has about 28 mmbls stored in 12 Supertankers and is on the way to adding one more tanker to the group... The best bet is that Ahmadinejad is playing up due to President Bushīs 5 day trip to Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.. In itself a further message to Tehran. 13/5 GMT 22.55 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Q1 Report out 14/5 I feel more than comfortable about the upcoming report - All things considered. 13/5 GMT 22.56 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Q1 Report - A Comment The company has been going through a rough patch with delays in Russia, Sudan and Norway.. Have we been here before? Yes! The market shows great patients with the travails and with good reason... The salient point look at the budget for further exploration and development! 8/5 GMT 20.35 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Wan Machar-1 - A further Comment The reaction of shock and dismay to the news of a less than favourable result from Wan Machar-1 is somehow symptomatic of the oil patch at the moment. The Oil Price has nothing to do with fundamentals and the expected returns on investing in the oil sector follows suit. Inflated stock-price targets and production numbers are rampant but they are just that inflated numbers... In this kind of environment it is very easy to get caught up in the general frenzy. That the stock lost close to 10% today may come as a shock to the market but I belive it was an over-reaction to what is a fairly serious "Wild Cat" exploration.. The market place today sees a lot of new investors and lets not forget analysts in the Oil Sector that may have gone through the last couple of years of a seemingly perpetual up-tick for the oil price and stocks. These fellows are perhaps less hardy in the face of adversity. Yet this was the second of two drills in this part of the Basin and as such should be viewed with that in mind. I will say that I long held the belife that Lupe should have sold their part in this block but I changed my mind.. However I also see this reaction in the stock price as a good trading opportunity as I doubt 10% of the current stock price was just a hope for glory in Sudan. Fundamentals.... 8/5 GMT 18.01 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Wan Machar-1 Again as with Nyal-1 there were gas shows roughly half way through the drill hence the optimistic view.. Yet it is all about the source rock and in this the first two drills have in some way established at least a border-line. With the two coming drills set to move closer to the central area of the basin one would expect the outlook to be a little more positive. Welcome to Prospecting! 8/5 GMT 15.04 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Wan Machar-1 Not so good news with this drill most probably a duster. Again there were encouraging gas shows from about 650 meter down but no sign of hydrocarbons in the form of oil... 7/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 5.7 mmbls (API + 0.6 mmbls) Gasoline + 0.8 mmbls (API + 1.4 mmbls) Distillates + 0.1 mmbls (API - 1.3 mmbls) Crude Import 10.6 mmbopd + 0.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.5 mmbopd + 0.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.19 mmbopd - 0.07 Refineries 85.0% - 0.4% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.5 I did call for a larger than expected build for Crude and itīs down to the Imports and laging Refinery output. 7/5 GMT 01.49 Iran - Oil Output I wrote, *21/4 GMT 01.17 Iran - Oil Output The Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hoseyn Nowzari at the 13th Oil & Gas Exhibition made a statement - "that the tool of sanctions is an old and worn out tool that belongs to the decades of 1950s and 1960s". Referring to the need for $500 Billion Dollars of investment in the countries oil, gas, and petrochemical sectors by the year 1403 ie 2024. As I have pointed out on several occasions Iran is not running out of oil or gas however what it is running out of is capacity to produce the oil & gas due to the US lead sanctions after 1979.. Much of the Iranian oil industry is working with technology from the 1930īs to the 1960īs. Iran is currently producing between 3.5 mmbopd to 4.0 mmbopd and that is at levels pre 1979 sanctions, it just simply does not have the technology to today produce more without massive investment in itīs infrastructure... And.. May 7, 2008 Iran supply problems add to fears of oil hitting $200 a barrel "The Iranian petroleum industry needs foreign investment and, despite the country's vast oil and gas reserves, is struggling to maintain production levels, according to industry experts. Although Iran is Opec's second-largest exporter, production at the country's leading oil and gasfields is believed to be falling by as much as 10% annually because of a lack of investment and expertise. David Kirsch, an oil analyst at PFC Energy in Washington, said: It's an ageing oil producer heading into plateauing production, with many fields in decline. The Ministry of Petroleum there has said it needs $9 billion a year to invest in its upstream operations, yet the national Government allows it to retain only $3 billion. It is capital starved...” 6/5 GMT 22.57 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 2.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 0.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.7 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.3 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.3 mmbopd Refineries 86.2% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 7.5 Again it is the Imports and Refiners. Boring but there you are.. I did say I was expecting builds and they should start showing up more and more. Crude could actually see a larger build. 6/5 GMT 03.39 Oil USA - DOE - API - Strategic Petroleum Reserves Even the US Congress is starting to ask questions as to why the US at a time of high prices for Crude is continuing to build the SPR... 6/5 GMT 03.20 Oil - The Contracts I reiterate - "$120 WTI is just Silly! Based on all known Fundamentals"... Simply because if this price level had anything to do with The Fundamentals then oil stocks would be at ATH highs and they are not. It is all about Speculation in a small world called the Contract Market where there are a lot of sheep who simply follow the trend. Factors like the fall/fluctuations of the dollar, real Geopoliticals etc tend to fall by the wayside and then not etc - and we are all off to the races. With still the World not running out of oil.. Good trading though! 5/5 GMT 22.23 Iran - US Military Strike Iran again rules out halting Nuclear Enrichment... 5/5 GMT 22.12 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Q1 Report out 14/5 I feel more than comfortable about the upcoming report - All things considered. 1/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Natural Gas + 86 Bcf 1/5 GMT 04.37 The Falkland Islands - Oil & Gas The Falkland Island Basin is thought to contain between 60 and 100 Billion Barrels of oil given at a place on the planet that is remote... 1/5 GMT 03.35 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX 1/5 GMT 03.23 Iran - US Military Strike Army General David H. Petraeus, the top commander in Iraq who is in line for the top USCC position, is preparing a briefing that details Iran’s activities. That report is expected in the next couple of weeks. This when the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group has just moved into the Persian Gulf.. ”The size of our naval presence in the Gulf rises and falls constantly. This deployment has been planned for a long time. I don’t think we will have two carriers there for a protracted period of time. So I don't see it as an escalation. I think it could be seen, though, as a reminder.” - Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates 30/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 3.8 mmbls (API + 2.5 mmbls) Gasoline - 1.5 mmbls (API - 2.4 mmbls) Distillates + 1.1 mmbls (API - 0.9 mmbls) Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.4 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.27 mmbopd Refineries 85.4% - 0.2% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 8.9 So it was the Imports. Huge number for Gasoline.. 30/4 GMT 00.17 The Falkland Islands - Oil & Gas I will be returning to this place of which I have held a long time interest... Shell is back in the region... More to come... 29/4 GMT 23.57 Somalia - Range Resources - RRS:ASX - Africa Oil Corp - AOI:TSX Yeah well not so much a spud date as projected due to unrest in the region... 29/4 GMT 23.10 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline - 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 0.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas + 75 Bcf Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.30 mmbopd Refineries 85.8% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.5 As Refiners are back I expect the Gasoline stocks to build going forward and in this there could be a build in last weeks numbers yet a decline is more likelly. Again itīs Imports and Refineries... The strike in Nigeria at Exxon is a factor even if other exporters took up the slack. 28/4 GMT 19.06 Iraq - Oil Reserves - 350 Billion Barrels As I wrote earlier... Only 27 out of 80 discovered Oil fields are producing in Iraq, 10 rank among the largest oil fields in the world. Moreover, of 526 known and evaluated petroleum structures that have been classified as potential prospects, 125 have been drilled. The result of decades of under investment. Further a report by Wood Mackenzie, the consultancy says the scale of Iraq’s remaining oil resources surpasses all other countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, and its high quality reservoirs ensure that production costs would be very low... The Wood Mackenzie report and other industry analysis are now pointing to that Iraqi oil reserves could be as large as 350 Billion Barrels. Which beats even the Saudi reserves of about 270 Billion Barrels. The Western Desert is here one very interesting region along side the North and South of the country.. 26/4 GMT 01.49 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX I usually do not comment on shares I do not favour simply because there is no money in it! But when it comes to PA Resources well - just read the reports and ignore "the maybes" and "the going to happens" and "the in the futures" etc garbage and... Well it is your choice.. A hint, Natural Gas needs a customer and Oil Equivalents involves a broad spectrum of interpretations.... Infrastructure... Product Sharing Agreements... Depletion Rates... The article in the Swedish Financial Daily Dagens Industry says one thing - Big Investors want out! The new Oil Baron?.... How much did that cost? As I said it is your choice! 26/4 GMT 00.44 Iran - US Military Strike The tension in the region is increasing daily and strangely it is a non-media event... Would I be surprised if the US Airforce did a "Syrian attack" on Iranian nuclear installations? No! Who would come to the aid of the Iranians? A Persian Nuclear Bomb?? Syria was just a test run.... 26/4 GMT 00.40 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Wan Machar-1 Yeah.... *G* 26/4 GMT 00.39 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Annual and Special Meeting The Stock Option Plan for 2008 reserving an aggregate of 10% of the issued and outstanding shares of the Company for issuance upon the exercise of options granted pursuant to the Plan.... A Fair Deal as the Lundin Sphere have used options to create mobility. Perform or you get a thinner pay packet. I know many will not understand this concept, especially some of the the Swedish investors.... 24/4 GMT 00.01 Syria - Nuclear Reactor CIA officials will tell Congress today that North Korea had been helping Syria build a plutonium based nuclear reactor. The CIA officials will tell lawmakers that they believe the reactor would have been capable of producing plutonium for nuclear weapons but that it was destroyed before it could do so. The installation in Syria was bombed last year by Israeli warplanes. 23/4 GMT 19.40 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Wan Machar-1 This drill is on track... 23/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 2.4 mmbls (API + 2.5 mmbls) Gasoline - 3.2 mmbls (API - 2.4 mmbls) Distillates - 1.4 mmbls (API - 0.9 mmbls) Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.26 mmbopd Refineries 85.6% + 4.2%!! Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.7 The big news is the Refinery numbers which blew away all expectations. Imports were back to a normal level. A fairly neutral report. Again SPR injection... The API numbers were more inline with my expectations and it is worth noting that the DOE and API see things from different perspectives. Explanation worth itīs own posting... 23/4 GMT 01.59 Alternative Energy/Fuels There are no Alternative Energy/Fuels to Nuclear, Hydro, Oil, Coal or Fossile Fuels today that are economically viable at scale without very heavy Government Subsidies ie Your Taxes, Not One! Does it not feel great to pay for Alternative Energy - Twice!? If your energy provider says that x% are from wind powered energy well then you know that you have already payed for it through your taxes and then you are asked to pay for it again... Moronic! 23/4 GMT 01.56 Iraq - Oil Reserves I have not forgotten this posting... more to come. 19/3 GMT 23.23 Iraq - Oil Reserves 23/4 GMT 00.41 Oil - The Contracts $120 WTI is just Silly! Based on all known Fundamentals... 23/4 GMT 00.36 Iran - US Military Strike - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve The US is still adding Crude to the SPR and you have to ask yourself, Why? With Crude at the price levels of late it really does not make any sense to increase the reserve to historically unseen levels... 23/4 GMT 00.34 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 3.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline - 1.9 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 0.6 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.3 mmbopd Refineries 81.9% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.9 Again Refinery output and Imports are the majors. Imports have been hampered by fog, not unusual and Refiners are in work-over mode again not unusual. Yet coupled with the overly high price of Crude they take effect. Refineries are operating about 15% below maximum capacity at a time when the economy is suffering due to the high cost of transport... 22/4 GMT 18.58 Iran - US Military Strike - US Fifth Fleet Yet again the US Fifth Fleet will see a reinforcement in the Arabian Sea as two nuclear aircraft carriers are en route to join the Harry S.Truman Carrier Strike Group which is currently on station... 21/4 GMT 03.34 The Commodity Crash Itīs coming ever closer... I have written earlier.. "Despite the fact that the US Dollar fell again a lot of commodities also fell. Not a good sign. Crude is driven by speculation and not by any Peak Oil nonsense or Demand Supply BS it is driven by speculation as are many commodities, when this ends - well letīs just say it aint pretty." The extra twist to the equation is that more and more Soft Commodities ie food stuffs are being priced against the price of WTI Crude Oil... 21/4 GMT 02.13 Ethanol - Bio Fuels Finally the Ethanol Biofuel Hysteria is being shown for what it is - Western Liberal Madness and just plain Bad Science! Politicians and lobby groups on the Liberal and Left front have been pushing Ethanol because they can sleep better at night believing they are doing something about the environment and Man Made Global Warming... As it turns out and as predicted by the way the Liberal and EcoSocialist Mechanics have yet again run the vehicle down the sewer.. The Man Made Global Warming farce will be the next shoe to drop once enough scientist get the backbone to come out and say what they really think.... 21/4 GMT 01.17 Iran - Oil Output The Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hoseyn Nowzari at the 13th Oil & Gas Exhibition made a statement - "that the tool of sanctions is an old and worn out tool that belongs to the decades of 1950s and 1960s". Referring to the need for $500 Billion Dollars of investment in the countries oil, gas, and petrochemical sectors by the year 1403 ie 2024. As I have pointed out on several occasions Iran is not running out of oil or gas however what it is running out of is capacity to produce the oil & gas due to the US lead sanctions after 1979.. Much of the Iranian oil industry is working with technology from the 1930īs to the 1960īs. Iran is currently producing between 3.5 mmbopd to 4.0 mmbopd and that is at levels pre 1979 sanctions, it just simply does not have the technology to today produce more without massive investment in itīs infrastructure... 20/4 GMT 02.43 USD Index - WTI 19/4 GMT 03.26 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Target $23... 16/4 GMT 15.35 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 2.3 mmbls (API + 2.5 mmbls) Gasoline - 5.5 mmbls (API - 2.4 mmbls) Distillates + 0.1 mmbls (API - 0.9 mmbls) Crude Import 8.9 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.95 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.26 mmbopd Refineries 81.4% - 1.6% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 8.0 Low Refinery numbers again. Crude Import is below par. Gasoline demand upp. A very market positive report. Again a 70.000 barrel injection into the SPR... 16/4 GMT 00.59 Iran - International Oil and Gas & Petrochemical Exhibition - The 16th to 20th April 2008 16/4 GMT 00.41 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 3.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 3.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 9.9 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.20 mmbopd Refineries 83.5% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.6 mmbls Itīs all about Crude in transit and the Imports and Refineries. API last week showed a 6 mmbls increase and this I expect will show up in the numbers. It all depends on where Crude and products are in the system. Also do not forget that the US is still building the SPR despite negative storage numbers in the short term. A factor! 15/4 GMT 19.44 Iran - US Military Strike - Israel 2 US National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley is currently in Israel for meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Defence Minister Ehud Barak, military chief of staff Lieutenant General Gaby Ashkenazi and other senior security officials. 15/4 GMT 19.31 Iran - US Military Strike - Israel For the third time Israel is to be connected to the US Airforce Ballistic Missile Early Warning System to warn of any missile attack from Iran... Israel was connected to the system in 1991 and during the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. 14/4 GMT 22.12 Brazil - Sugarloaf - New Massive Oil Field.... Brazil has discovered a new offshore oil field that could prove to be the third largest field in the world. The find is located off the southwest coast near Tupi whose immense reserves are calculated to hold close to 33 billion barrels of oil. The new discovery known in Brazil as the Carioca site, or Sugarloaf site could have reserves five times bigger than those of Tupi.... 150 billion barrels plus.. 14/4 GMT 04.48 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX The trend... 14/4 GMT 02.39 Saudi Arabia - New Oil Discoveries Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said he has ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped to preserve oil wealth in the world's top exporter for future generations. The kingdom has more than 2.0 mmbopd of spare crude capacity and is today the only country able to bring online large volumes of crude quickly to deal with unexpected shortages. Saudi Oil Minister Ali al Naimi said last week global oil markets were well supplied and there was no need to put more oil on the market.... 11/4 GMT 01.55 OPEC OPEC produced 32.350 mmopd in March. Which is about 2.5 mmbopd above the current quota level! 10/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Natural Gas - 14 Bcf 10/4 GMT 04.02 China - US Dollar The US dollar falls below 7 Yuan level for the first time... The drop came after the foreign exchange daily central parity was set at 6.9920 by the Chinese Central Bank. 9/4 GMT 16.38 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX I did write just two days ago "yet this stock has in the current cycle more to give just based on the fundamentals which are extraordinary". In the case of daily production in Syria during 2008 I feel the company is conservative in itīs estimates... The farming out of Oudeh is just simply a smart move along a baseline that has been laid down by the company long ago... 9/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 3.2 mmbls (API + 6.0 mmbls) Gasoline - 3.4 mmbls (API + 1.8 mmbls) Distillates - 3.7 mmbls (API - 0.18 mmbls) Crude Import 8.9 mmbopd - 1.4 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.90 mmbopd - 0.4 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.16 mmbopd - 0.16 mmbopd Refineries 83.0% + 0.6% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 8.6 mmbls These numbers are way off the charts for most expectations and as such this is report is market positive. As I said - Imports and Refiners... The industry is gearing up for lower demand going forward with Gasoline demand during the "driving season" expected to be at 1991 levels... Simply the energy complex is downsizing as the economy is weakening. SPR storage is again building above 700 mmbls... The API stats are interesting again as they are closer to most peoples expectations. 9/4 GMT 14.34 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Canada's Dublin International Petroleum Ltd is planning to increase its output to up to 21,000 barrels a day from two Syrian oil fields in 2008, as Syria seeks to raise it's oil production which fell recently to 360,000 barrels a day, a company official said Wednesday. "We are targeting an average of 5,000 barrels a day from Oudeh oil field and another 16,000 barrels a day from Tishrine oil field this year," Fernando Benalcazar, a company manager, told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview on the sidelines of an oil and gas show in Damascus, Syria's capital. Benalcazar also said that his company is in talks with a partner to help in operating Oudeh oil field. "We would acquire 50% participating interest and the rest (would be held) by our new partner." He didn't name the company. Dublin, which belongs to Tanganyika Oil Company Ltd., has two separate production-sharing agreements with the Syrian government to develop fields in northeastern Syria. The first one was signed in 2003 to develop and produce crude oil from Oudeh oil field, Benalcazar said. The contract, which has a term of 20 years with a provision for a five-year extension, aim is to increase oil recovery and crude oil production at the field by applying enhanced oil recovery techniques. "The field could produce now up to 3,500 barrels a day but we want to reach an average of 5,000 barrels a day in 2008," the Dublin manager said. The contract for Tishrine and Sheikh Mansour oil fields were signed in 2005, and are also for 20 years that can be extended for another five years. Tishrine is currently able to produce up to 12,000 barrels a day but the company wants to raise production to an average of 16,000 barrels a day this year, Benalcazar said. Sheikh Mansour oil field is under development. "We are drilling an appraisal well in the field," he said. He didn't say how much the field would produce when developed. The company estimated reserves at these three oil fields at 5.5 billion barrels. Syria is currently producing some 360,000 barrels a day down from 380,000 barrels a day in 2007. The country's oil minister Sufian al-Alao said that his ministry wants to return to last year's production levels and increase beyond that. Syria has granted licenses to 13 foreign companies to explore oil and gas in various Syrian areas and develop producing oil fields. These are small companies such as Dublin, Dove Energy, Gulfsands, ONGC Videsh, among others. 8/4 GMT 19.33 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 5.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline - 2.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 1.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.98 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.30 mmbopd Refineries 82.6% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.8 mmbls Imports and Refinery runs... 8/4 GMT 16.18 Syria - New Refinery Last year Syria announced the building of the Dayr az Zawr Refinery with a production capacity of 140,000 bopd. Now a new Refinery deal is announced... China and Syria have signed an agreement to build a joint venture refinery in eastern Syria, expanding their cooperation to include oil processing, state owned China National Petroleum Corp. has disclosed. China's state owned oil industry has been investing heavily abroad in hopes of securing energy supplies to fuel its booming economy. Syria has been seeking Chinese technology to increase output from its own oil fields and reduce its reliance on oil product imports. The agreement was signed April 2, during a visit to Syria by Li Changchun, a member of China's powerful Politburo, China's biggest oil and gas company said in a statement seen Tuesday. It calls for CNPC to build a refinery with capacity of about 110,000 bopd. The refinery will be operational in 2011... *30/11 GMT 17.00 Syria - New Refinery Syrian Oil Minister Sufiyan Al-AW announced this month that in order to double Syria's deep refining capability and to be able to process crude oil from neighboring Iraq, Syria is planning to build a $3 billion refinery with Noor Financial Investment Company of Kuwait. Noor Financial will establish a company to exclusively work on the project in Dayr az Zawr Province in eastern Syria. This is the second new refinery construction project announced by Syria within one week. The Dayr az Zawr Refinery will have a production capacity of 140,000 bopd, which is as much as is currently produced by the two main refineries of Homs, in central Syria, and Banyas, on the Western Coast. 8/4 GMT 02.35 China - The Olympic Torch Relay Big protests in London and Paris and San Francisco is going to be far worse with a large Tibetan and Chinese population. Interestingly the modern torch relay was introduced by Joseph Goebbels, as part of an effort to turn the games of 1936 into a glorification of the Third Reich.... China is it seems doing itīs best to live up to Adolf Hitlers intentions with the relay. It was also Hitler's Nazi propaganda machine that popularised the five interlocking rings as the symbol of the Games. So much for Politics and Sport.... China should never have been given these games, but then there you are. Too late for the World to cry!! 8/4 GMT 02.35 Sudan - New Oil Block Ea Sudan's National Petroleum Commission has mapped out a new oil concession in the southern region of the country, calling it Block Ea. The block is adjacent to blocks 5A, B and C. Ea is a 48.000 square kilometer oil and gas exploration concession located in the South Western region of southern Sudan, extending from the northern region of Western Equatoria Province North Westerly up through the Northern Bahr El Ghazal province. 7/4 GMT 23.28 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX The Target of $20 is almost complete, yet this stock has in the current cycle more to give just based on the fundamentals which are extraordinary. 4/4 GMT 05.06 The Price of Oil I wrote, *1/2 GMT 23.22 The Price of Oil What the world needs now is cheaper oil... The world is well supplied with oil as I have pointed to before yet oil still costs too much for the global economy and especially the US economy to make it through this very rough patch that is coming. If Crude stays at around $90 going forward then the US economy is going to go into a possible free-fall as the summer season comes into view. $90 oil would mean that crack spreads are going to drive Gasoline prices up towards $4 a Gallon and in a Recession type economy that is just simply crazy and a sure guarantee that we will see not only a US recession but a possible and more dire global consequence. Given that the contracts have been driven by the fall of the dollar and geopoliticals but those effects aside the price of oil is too high. To save the global economy from a major slowdown and in this none is immune not China, India the EU in fact none is immune. The price of oil needs to retreat into the $60 to $70 range. Something most should start adjusting to as the indicators are pointing to this level. I stand by this sentiment and add to it that unless the price of oil does retreat to the level of $60 to $70 then the rest of the world is going to go through a very rough patch... Depression! There is no such thing as decoupling of economies in a global economy we are all in the same boat... 3/4 GMT 01.55 Iceland - A study in Desperation The Icelandic State has a Secret Plan to Bag the Big Bad Bear... No itīs not Monty Python itīs for real... Apparently Iceland is going to beat the market place and "put them thar bad hedge funds in their place.." Face it you are fair game... And no you canīt beat the market!! Especially as the Icelandic economy has since two years been a very good testbed for the global problems ahead... 3/4 GMT 01.52 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Wan Machar-1 On this one I am going to say nothing.... 2/4 GMT 19.59 Oil - Dollar - Euro The Crude Contracts rose nearly $4 to close near $105 a barrel, the reason the $USD turned lower against the €EUR... Crude for May delivery gained $3.85, or 3.8%, to settle at $104.83 a barrel. The inventory numbers again took a second seat.. 2/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 7.4 mmbls (API + 1.9 mmbls) Gasoline - 4.5 mmbls (API - 1.5 mmbls) Distillates - 1.6 mmbls (API - 0.1 mmbls) Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.95 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.32 mmbopd Refineries 82.4% + 0.2% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.5 mmbls Low Refinery numbers again and less than expected Gasoline Import will despite the rise in Crude storage drive the Crude Contracts. Yet the build in Crude was so large and as I pointed out weeks ago I expect this trend to grow... Again 40.000 barrels where injected into the SPR. The total storage now stands at 700.4 mmbls which is a little short of the total capacity of 727 mmbls... 2/4 GMT 01.06 Somalia - Range Resources - RRS:ASX - Africa Oil Corp - AOI:TSX The coming months are going to be interesting... AOI plans 2 initial drills during 2008 in Puntland. First drill late Q1 or early Q2.. 1/4 GMT 19.08 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 4.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline - 2.2 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 1.9 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.26 mmbopd Refineries 82.5% Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 2.6 mmbls With Refiners output way down itīs mostly about the Import numbers. Despite the zero change last week look for the build in Crude to continue for the 11th week running.. 1/4 GMT 12.58 Syria - Syroil 2008 - Tanganyika Oil 1/4 GMT 08.02 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Kaupthing New Target Price Kaupthing have set a new target price for TYK of 250 SEK, please see the analysis.. Problem with the upload of the analysis.. The basics are as follows, P/E 2008 8 P/E 2009 3 EPS 2008 13 SEK EPS 2009 32 SEK 1/4 GMT 02.59 The Change Global Warming Hysteria Mr Al "I invented the Internet" Gore is set to spend $300 million of other peoples money on a campaign that has as itīs first message that - The challenge of fighting Global Warming compares to the invasion of Normandy and the civil rights movement..... Who are the morons that finance this guy? 1/4 GMT 02.34 The Commodity Crash - Oil and the Rest Margin Calls... Just a note. 1/4 GMT 00.34 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, despite the zero change last week for the build in Crude to continue for the 11th week running by.. Crude + 4.0 mmbls More to come... 1/4 GMT 00.22 Iceland - A study in Crisis Icelands financial problems started just about 2 years ago and has long been a preamble to what has been coming for more than some time.. Much like the Bank of England in the early 90īs the Icelandic Central Bank is crying foul because the big bad market place is clawing at the door. Well this has been long in the offering and no country is an Island when the market place smells weakness.. 1/4 GMT 00.14 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Target $20... 28/3 GMT 00.04 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX 28/3 GMT 00.03 Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX 27/3 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Natural Gas - 36 Bcf.. Look for more trade in the NG Contracts as the margin call levels are set for a change today, ie smaller investors will be sellers to cover the new margin levels... 26/3 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude +- 0.0 mmbls (API - 0.5 mmbls) Gasoline - 3.3 mmbls (API + 0.3 mmbls) Distillates - 2.2 mmbls (API + 0.4 mmbls) Crude Import 8.9 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.96 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.24 mmbopd Refineries 82.2% - 1.6% Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 6.5 mmbls Low import numbers again, refiners are scaling back much due to the poor margins created by the high price of Crude, work-overs. Gasoline draws will drive the Crude contracts.. 26/3 GMT 10.39 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 2.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 0.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 1.1 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.3 mmbopd Refineries 84.0% Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.9 mmbls 25/3 GMT 22.03 Tata Motors Limited - TTM:NYSE Jaguar and Land Rover... The deal is done. The Jag and the Rover go India... 25/3 GMT 17.11 Brazil - Petrobras - PETR4:BS - PBR:NYSE Speculation is circulating around the market that there is another large oil find in Maranhao in Brazil's Northeast... The word is that the discovery is bigger than that found at the Tupi field offshore Rio de Janeiro... 19/3 GMT 23.23 Iraq - Oil Reserves Only 27 out of 80 discovered Oil fields are producing in Iraq, the result of decades of under investment. Further a report by Wood Mackenzie, the consultancy says the scale of Iraq’s remaining oil resources surpasses all other countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, and its high quality reservoirs ensure that production costs would be very low... More on this... 19/3 GMT 19.15 The Commodity Crash - Oil Hedge funds and speculators are getting the "Hell out of Dodge"... WTI $5 down despite a bullish inventory report... I have said it aint going to be pretty! 19/3 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 0.2 mmbls (API + 2.5 mmbls) Gasoline - 3.5 mmbls (API - 0.8 mmbls) Distillates - 2.9 mmbls (API - 1.5 mmbls) Crude Import 9.5 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.3 mmbopd Refineries 83.8% - 1.2% Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 2.9 mmbls The input into the SPR continues and storage is almost at full capacity as I pointed to earlier. Gasoline retreats on lower Refinery Runs also the Crack Spreads are a factor... Despite the fall in Gasoline storage levels they are still 10% above last year on falling demand... I am looking for further builds going forward, large builds actually. The key is the Import numbers which were down 10% last week. These factors could be the instigators for selling off the to date "safe" Crude contracts... 19/3 GMT 01.55 USA - The Fed - A Statement As a Pure Market Capitalist I detest the other than Rate Intervention by The US Fed and any other Institution. If a business is rotten then let it die as should really be the case for Bear Stearns, yet my point of view is part of another century I know. Socialism is rampant today... However I do hope that history and well just plain sensible economics will prevail and let any future dead horses remain dead.... Yet I do have to applaud JP Morgan for playing The Fed like a violin and picking up Bears for a song.. 19/3 GMT 00.40 USA - The Fed OK it came in at 75 basis points and language... Yet I would be very weary about putting to much faith into this move as itīs all about Mortgage Rates. Recent history as a guide, The Fedīs rate cutting will have little or no effect on long term loans to homeowners. It's all because banks continue to be reticent about lending money and investors are especially leery of mortgage backed securities, the market for which has been shattered by hundreds of thousands of defaults during the subprime mortgage collapse. Instead of lending money, banks have historically used newfound liquidity brought on by rate cuts and Fed term auctions to boost their balance sheets and pay dividends. Mortgage Rates have even gone up a bit following some Fed cuts since September 2007.... 19/3 GMT 00.01 China - GDP - Inflation - Stagflation The People's Bank of China announced Tuesday it would increase the amount of money commercial banks must keep in reserve, just hours after Premier Wen Jiabao warned inflation was a top concern. The PBC said in a statement the bank reserve ratio would rise half a percentage point to 15.5% from March 25, in yet another bid to implement tight monetary policies and cool the economy. Inflation in February ran at 8.7% year on year... And ofcourse the Olympics are not going to inflate prices.... Yeah right. China is a ticking Inflation Time Bomb.... 18/3 GMT 19.21 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 4.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.2 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas - 78 Bcf Crude Import 10.4 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.11 mmbopd Refineries 85.0% Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 3.5 mmbls 18/3 GMT 12.09 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX 18/3 GMT 11.43 Tata Motors Limited - TTM:NYSE Makers of the Tatanano... Tata Motors has signed a $3 billion bridging loan with Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase for its purchase of Ford Motor Coīs Jaguar and Land Rover brands... 18/3 GMT 02.17 USA - The Fed 100 basis points is in the market, there is a 22% chance of 125 points.. The Fed needs to act and act hard. 18/3 GMT 02.15 USD Index - CRB Index 18/3 GMT 01.57 USA - MF Global The next shoe to drop... Companies that clear trades, like MF Global, are exposed to counterparty risk if their clients can't make good on their part of a trade and MF Global has to step in and purchase the underlying securities at a loss. They could also get nailed if clients start withdrawing funds out of fear the company won't be around to do business. Look for more of this.... 18/3 GMT 01.48 The Commodity Crash Itīs coming... Despite the fact that the US Dollar fell again a lot of commodities also fell. Not a good sign. Crude is driven by speculation and not by any Peak Oil nonsense or Demand Supply BS it is driven by speculation as are many commodities, when this ends - well letīs just say it aint pretty. 14/3 GMT 01.16 USD Index - WTI 14/3 GMT 00.27 OPEC OPEC is pumping well above its own quota of 29.673 mmbopd to the tune of 32.330 mmopd... That is 2.66 mmbopd above the current quota! 12/3 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 6.2 mmbls (API - 0.5 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.7 mmbls (API - 3.7 mmbls) Distillates - 1.2 mmbls (API - 2.7 mmbls) Natural Gas - 86 Bcf Crude Import 10.5 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.75 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.13 mmbopd Refineries 85.0% - 0.9% Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.6 mmbls A market negative report... In fact a very Bearish Report yet in this market it is the Dollar and Hedgefund buying that is running the show... As much as 80% of the daily trade in contracts is buying by Hedgefunds... 12/3 GMT 13.11 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out at GMT 14.30 I expect, Crude + 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 9.8 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd Refineries 86.0% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 1.5 mmbls Bit of a tricky week to call.. 12/3 GMT 02.06 Japan - GDP GDP 3.5% year on year... This then lower than expected and the 2007 Q4 growth was 0.9% against an expected 2.3%.. 11/3 GMT 19.35 USA - The Fed - Central Banks Nothing like a bit of Government Intervention to kick up the market. This however is an artificial Bear Rally - "Sucker Rally" and the best way to make money from it is to sell into it. The US Fed started itīs rate change policy about 6 months ago and since then the DOW has lost about 1.500 points... Another point is that this infusion of Liquidity will not show up in the market for another 2 to 3 weeks and even then the question is how much of this banks and other institutions actually will pass on to those who need the Cash... 11/3 GMT 09.26 China - GDP - Inflation - Stagflation CPI in February 8.7% year on year... Highest since 1996 when it was 8.9%. Pork prices soared 63% from a year earlier, vegetables climbed 46%, and edible oil rose 41%. Exports were up only 6.5%, the lowest rate in six years. The Stagflation threshold for China is about 8% inflation and a GDP growth rate of well below 5%. 10/3 GMT 23.02 Oil - The Market - The Price - The Bubbel Fundamentals when it comes to the price of oil are out the window... The bubble just keeps building and as all bubbles this one will burst. The problem is that it will take a huge amount of the market along with it down as commodities in general are today driven by the fall of the US$ and thus hence the price of Crude. Large funds and other institutional investors are heading into the Crude Market on a basis of nothing else than that it is the best game in town - for now. When these players pull out well you know what happens. WTI $108 is a nosebleed level and as stated before the fundamentals just arenīt there.... Will Oil cruise further North? Well yes because that is the way the market is heading.... 10/3 GMT 22.39 USD Index - WTI 10/3 GMT 10.13 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Nyal-1 A comment would be that every drill gives the operator more information than that which was had before. It is only when you get source rock to the surface that you know for sure which strata you drilled through. A wild-cat is a stab in the dark yet the potential for a hit in this Basin is better than average as previous drills have shown. 10/3 GMT 08.17 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Nyal-1 A dry and now abandoned well. The early gas shows at about 1.400 meters down to the final depth of 2.363 meters were just that "gas shows"... A disappointing result for sure! 10/3 GMT 04.49 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX 10/3 GMT 03.55 Iran - Oil Discovery Iran discovers 2.2 Billion barrel oil layer... A senior Iranian oil official says a new oil layer with a capacity of 2.2 Billion barrels has been discovered in the Azadegan oilfield. "The new layer was discovered when the seventh exploration well was drilled in the Azadegan oilfield," - according to Mahmud Mohaddes, the National Iranian Oil Company's Director for exploration. Iran is planning to develop another oil layer with a capacity of 1 Billion barrels, which had been previously discovered in the Azadegan oilfield. The Azadegan oilfield, which is located 80 kilometers west of the southern Iranian city of Ahvaz in the oil-rich Khuzestan Province, has proven oil reserves of 33 Billion barrels, with good prospects for additional capacity, taking the total to 40 Billion barrels. 9/3 GMT 21.51 China - GDP - Inflation Chinas PPI rose by 6.6% in February up from 6.1% in January. PPI has risen for the last seven months. CPI for February is expected to rise 8%... Figures are out on 11/3.. Note that about 40% of Chinas GDP is based on export income, 30% is domestic consumption. China is in this fragile as the US now is in Recession and the EU is slowing considerably.... Welcome to the Global Economy! 7/3 GMT 12.39 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Itīs just Fundamentals... With a Private Placement in the offering and a fairly weak market for the oil sector. TYK is the Terminator on good volumes. Itīs just a matter of Fundamentals. 7/3 GMT 11.00 USD Index - WTI 5/3 GMT 17.30 OECD - Real GDP 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Fourth quarter 2007 2008 2009 Australia 3,3 5,0 4,0 4,0 3,8 5,2 4,3 3,5 2,2 4,0 3,4 3,2 3,0 2,5 4,3 3,5 3,0 4,5 3,2 Austria 2,4 2,5 2,2 2,3 2,1 3,5 3,6 3,0 1,0 0,7 1,0 2,3 2,3 3,1 3,3 2,5 2,5 3,0 2,5 Belgium 2,2 3,2 2,4 1,0 3,5 1,8 3,3 3,9 0,7 1,4 1,0 2,8 2,0 2,9 2,6 1,9 2,0 2,2 2,0 Canada 2,6 4,8 2,8 1,6 4,2 4,1 5,5 5,2 1,8 2,9 1,9 3,1 3,1 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,7 2,9 2,5 Czech Republic .. 2,6 5,9 4,2 -0,7 -0,8 1,3 3,7 2,5 1,9 3,6 4,6 6,5 6,4 6,1 4,6 4,9 6,3 3,6 Denmark 1,8 5,5 3,1 2,8 3,2 2,2 2,6 3,5 0,7 0,5 0,4 2,1 3,1 3,5 2,0 1,7 0,8 2,0 1,2 Finland 1,2 3,6 3,8 3,6 6,2 5,3 4,0 5,0 2,6 1,6 2,0 3,7 2,9 4,9 4,2 2,9 2,6 2,6 3,3 France 2,2 2,2 2,3 1,1 2,2 3,6 3,2 4,0 1,8 1,1 1,1 2,3 1,7 2,2 1,9 1,8 2,0 2,1 1,7 Germany 2,8 2,7 2,0 1,0 1,9 1,8 1,9 3,5 1,4 0,0 -0,2 0,6 1,0 3,1 2,6 1,8 1,6 2,0 1,6 Greece 1,3 2,0 2,1 2,4 3,6 3,4 3,4 4,5 4,5 3,9 4,9 4,7 3,7 4,3 4,1 3,7 3,9 4,4 4,2 Hungary .. 2,9 1,5 1,3 4,6 4,9 4,2 5,2 4,1 4,4 4,2 4,8 4,1 3,9 1,8 2,6 3,8 1,7 2,9 Iceland 2,1 3,6 0,1 4,8 4,8 6,3 4,1 4,3 3,9 0,1 2,4 7,7 7,1 4,2 1,2 1,0 1,6 1,0 1,2 Ireland 3,9 5,8 9,6 8,3 11,7 8,6 10,9 9,4 5,9 6,4 4,3 4,3 5,9 5,7 5,2 2,9 4,2 5,0 4,1 Italy 2,3 2,3 2,9 0,6 2,0 1,3 1,9 3,8 1,7 0,3 0,1 1,0 0,2 1,9 1,8 1,3 1,3 1,1 1,3 Japan 3,7 1,1 2,0 2,7 1,6 -2,0 -0,1 2,9 0,2 0,3 1,4 2,7 1,9 2,2 1,9 1,6 1,8 1,3 1,7 Korea 8,4 8,5 9,2 7,0 4,7 -6,9 9,5 8,5 3,8 7,0 3,1 4,7 4,2 5,0 4,9 5,2 5,1 5,4 5,0 Luxembourg 6,1 3,8 1,4 1,5 6,0 6,6 8,4 8,0 2,7 4,1 2,1 5,0 5,0 6,0 5,2 4,9 4,1 .. .. Mexico 2,4 4,5 -6,2 5,1 6,8 4,9 3,9 6,6 -0,2 0,8 1,4 4,2 2,8 4,8 3,0 3,6 4,3 3,4 3,5 Netherlands 2,8 3,0 3,1 3,4 4,3 3,9 4,7 3,9 1,9 0,1 0,3 2,2 1,5 3,0 3,0 2,4 2,3 2,8 2,4 New Zealand 1,9 6,2 4,2 3,3 3,1 0,7 4,6 3,8 2,4 4,8 4,3 3,8 2,7 1,8 3,4 1,9 2,1 2,7 1,9 Norway 2,9 5,1 4,2 5,1 5,4 2,7 2,0 3,3 2,0 1,5 1,0 3,9 2,7 2,8 3,4 3,6 2,4 3,6 3,3 Poland .. 5,3 7,0 6,2 7,1 5,0 4,5 4,3 1,2 1,4 3,9 5,3 3,6 6,2 6,5 5,6 5,2 .. .. Portugal 3,2 1,0 4,3 3,6 4,2 4,8 3,9 3,9 2,0 0,8 -0,7 1,5 0,5 1,3 1,8 2,0 2,2 2,0 2,1 Slovak Republic .. 6,2 5,8 6,9 5,7 3,7 0,3 0,7 3,2 4,1 4,2 5,4 6,0 8,3 9,3 7,3 6,9 8,4 7,3 Spain 2,9 2,4 2,8 2,4 3,9 4,5 4,7 5,0 3,6 2,7 3,1 3,3 3,6 3,9 3,8 2,5 2,4 3,3 2,3 Sweden 1,5 3,8 4,1 1,4 2,5 3,6 4,3 4,4 1,2 2,0 1,8 3,7 2,9 4,5 3,4 3,2 2,6 3,5 2,8 Switzerland 2,0 1,2 0,4 0,6 2,1 2,6 1,3 3,6 1,2 0,4 -0,2 2,5 2,4 3,2 2,7 2,0 2,0 2,6 1,8 Turkey 5,4 -5,5 7,2 7,0 7,5 3,1 -4,7 7,4 -7,5 7,9 5,8 8,9 7,4 6,1 5,1 5,8 6,3 .. .. United Kingdom 2,4 4,3 2,9 2,8 3,1 3,4 3,0 3,8 2,4 2,1 2,8 3,3 1,8 2,8 3,1 2,0 2,4 2,9 1,7 United States 3,3 4,0 2,5 3,7 4,5 4,2 4,4 3,7 0,8 1,6 2,5 3,6 3,1 2,9 2,2 2,0 2,2 2,6 1,6 Euro area 2,5 2,5 2,5 1,4 2,6 2,7 2,9 4,0 1,9 0,9 0,8 1,8 1,6 2,9 2,6 1,9 2,0 2,2 1,9 Total OECD 3,1 3,3 2,6 3,0 3,6 2,6 3,3 4,0 1,1 1,6 1,9 3,1 2,6 3,1 2,7 2,3 2,4 2,6 2,1 5/3 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 3.1 mmbls (API - 1.6 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.7 mmbls (API + 1.3 mmbls) Distillates - 2.4 mmbls (API - 4.8 mmbls) Natural Gas 135 Bcf Crude Import 9.4 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.17 mmbopd Refineries 85.9% + 1.2% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 4.5 mmbls Contrary to most analysts expectations Crude fell for the first time in 7 weeks. The higher Refinery runs congruent with lower Imports certainly helped that number. Gasoline again saw a build and we are now at 14 year highs in storage. A market neutral to positive report. 5/3 GMT 09.58 China - GDP - Inflation Chinas GDP 2007 was 11.7% with an annual inflation rate of 4.8%. For 2008 GDP is expected to grow by 8% with the same inflation rate... Something you have to question as the inflation rate in January alone came in at 7%.... 4/3 GMT 20.49 OPEC - Meeting 5/3 A reduction in production is a non-starter. To hold at current levels is the safe bet, yet given certain signals from the members that matter an increase of about 0.5 mmbopd is not totally outside the realm of possibility.... 4/3 GMT 19.25 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 0.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 1.2 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.76 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.19 mmbopd Refineries 84.7% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.9 mmbls 4/3 GMT 13.25 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Private Placement Well I was wrong about the need for further financing from the market... No two ways about it. TYK keep it in-house of sorts with a PP of 5 million shares at the stock price of 93 SEK. This then brings the total fully diluted outstanding shares in the company to 64.442.446. 4/3 GMT 05.51 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Nyal-1 Definitely a "good feeling" about this one...' 4/3 GMT 05.40 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Q4 "We are expecting 2008 to be an exciting year as we aim to surpass the 20.000 bopd milestone in gross production." The rest is just a case of - Read the Reports and Statements! 20.000 bopd I belive is going to look very conservative going forward.. Also there is the case of the Suitors... 4/3 GMT 05.02 Australia - Climate Change Hysteria A cool and wet summer leads into a positive winter season for last years drought stricken farmers... I think it is called - Natural Global Climatic Variation. Itīs only been going on for some 4.6 BILLION YEARS!!! 3/3 GMT 22.06 CRB - 3/3 GMT 19.18 OPEC - OPEC-Speak Saudi Oil Minister - Oil Prices won’t fall under $60-$70... OPEC-Speak much like US Fed-Speak has to be viewed in the context - Why would they say that... “If you take into account all the subsidies involved in the production of a barrel of biofuels, I doubt whether anyone could make money from that with a price lower than $60 or $70,” Think on this awhile.. 3/3 GMT 18.11 Iran - US Military Strike - UN UN approves new sanctions on Iran... The UN Security Council has voted in favour of new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme. Fourteen of the council's 15 members voted for a fresh round of punitive measures in addition to those imposed in 2006 and 2007. Indonesia abstained. 3/3 GMT 03.02 OPEC - OPEC-Speak Saudi Oil Minister - Oil Prices won’t fall under $60-$70... Oil prices won’t fall below $60 to $70 a barrel as this is the minimum level, at which alternative fuels are economically viable, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in remarks published on Sunday by Algeria’s APS news agency. “From now there’s a line below which prices won’t fall,” the official agency quoted him as saying in an interview with Petrostrategies magazine. He said this involved “the marginal cost of production of alternative fuels, whether that’s biofuels or tar sands”, which had a threshold “between $60 and $70”, APS reported. “If you take into account all the subsidies involved in the production of a barrel of biofuels, I doubt whether anyone could make money from that with a price lower than $60 or $70,” he was quoted as saying, referring to the price of a barrel of oil. He said that level signaled a line “under which the level of prices could not go”. US crude closed at $101.84 a barrel on Friday and London Brent crude finished at $100.10. Oil at these prices has piled pressure on OPEC to refrain from cutting output, when it meets in Vienna on March 5. APS said Naimi challenged the “Peak Oil” theory favored by conservative energy analysts, who predict that world supply of oil, including unconventional oil, will peak in about 2010. Naimi told Petrostrategies that continued exploration investment around the world would prevent the rapid exhaustion of supply. He cited the example of Sauid Arabia, whose subsoil was “not entirely explored,” APS reported. He estimated that Saudi Arabia, thanks to continued exploration, might be able to find another 200 billion barrels of oil to add to its reserves. But there was no justification for building output capacity beyond levels already planned, he said. State oil firm Saudi Aramco aims to lift supply capacity to 12 million barrels per day, enough to meet 14% of current world demand, by the end of 2009. Naimi said last year that further expansion of Saudi production capacity may not be needed beyond 2009 as consumers grow more energy efficient and switch to alternative fuels. Saudi Arabia holds the world’s largest oil reserves and is expanding supply capacity to meet rising world demand at a time, when higher costs are leading to delays and cancellations across the oil and gas industry. 28/2 GMT 03.02 Oil - WTI 27/2 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 3.2 mmbls (API - 1.7 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.3 mmbls (API - 1.0 mmbls) Distillates - 2.5 mmbls (API - 1.2 mmbls) Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.4 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd Refineries 84.7% + 1.2% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.7 mmbls A market negative report... Please note that the US Department of Energy is currently adding about 70.000 barrels per day to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, despite crude prices topping $100 a barrel. The SPR should reach a record 700 million barrels of oil by the end of March. Plans are underway to expand the SPR to 1 billion barrels... Gasoline stocks are at their highest level for 14 years....... 26/2 GMT 23.09 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 4.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 0.4 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 2.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.4 mmbopd Refineries 83.2% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 2.6 mmbls 26/2 GMT 08.28 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Nyal-1 The Upper to Lower Cretaceous sandstone reservoirs in which there have been about 20 Oil and Gas discoveries... I am getting that "feel-good" feeling on this one.. 26/2 GMT 07.58 Australia - Oil and Natural Gas Production Australian Oil and Gas production last year was 467 mmboe. That is + 4.6% higher than in 2006 and just short of the ATH of 474 mmboe from 2000. Australian oil production increased by + 3.2% to 121 mmbls, the first increase since 2000, and production is set to increase again this year. Australian Natural Gas production came in at a record 1.6 trillion cubic feet 2007, + 6.0% since 2006. The East coast regions of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania saw production increases by + 12.5%. These are also the most populated regions of the country. Australia imports about 47% of itīs energy needs... 25/2 GMT 08.00 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX Swedbank Robur Fund and Folksam have bought a further part of LUPE to the tune of a combined 5.1% of the outstanding shares. So much for Ethics.... Not without Cause though... Not without Cause. 25/2 GMT 07.25 Cuba - Castro Will the real Castro please stand up..!? Letīs see.. your in power for 49 years and 50 is a big number for most folk. Why leave your position of power just a year shy of the big one.. Well most likely because you are Dead or fairly close to Dead. In 1989 the rulers of the Soviet Union clung to their last vestige of power in fairly much the same way Cubaīs power elite are doing today. Raul and a gathering of Septuagenarians are with tooth and nail hanging on to power. Why? Well I belive Fidel Castro if not already dead is close to the end. I could care less about a dying communist dictator or a live one for that matter. How does this then interest this site? Cuba has a huge potential when it comes to Oil!.... 23/2 GMT 02.57 CRB Index 21/2 GMT 19.51 On Peak Oil Nothing wrong with the theory as it is a fact that any finite resource has a beginning a peak and an end. Basic laws of mathematics, physics.... The problem with this theory is that it has become a religion for some and a vechicle for own agendas by others. The Man Made Global Warming Crowd have hijacked the theory and incorporated into their own delusionary view of the world ie that a planet that is 4.6 Billion Years old has never seen Climate Change before humans came along.... Industry is not excluded from this in that to promote the theory that the world is running out of oil is good business.. If you are seeking funding for a project to get energy out of squirrel droppings or cow burps or as yet completly uneconomic wind power then call on peak oil and the money will pour in, especially from tax subsidies to make wind power viable and other things like ethanol become cool yet totally misguided politics. Just the Political Lobbyīs use of Peak Oil as an argument is worth a long posting all of itīs own.. For oil companies the peak oil buzz is great.. Basic "drug-dealer" sales technique get the guy hooked and then keep telling him supply is tight... Hell the world has been running out of oil since the first oil was found. In the early 70īs a canvas of 500 economists showed that they thought the mean price of oil by the year 2000 would be $98 and that oil would run out by 2025... The Stone Age did not end for a lack of Stones and the Oil Age will end long before oil runs out... Iraq for instance has bearly scraped the surface of itīs oil reserves especially in the Western Desert on the border with Syria another country with great potential. Iran has huge amounts of oil in the ground and even more Natural Gas, it just dosenīt have the infrastructure to get it to market. Africa has huge potential but unfortunatly the people who live their are too preoccupied with killing eachother to look for the resources that abound in the ground. Brazil with probably more oil than you can poke a stick at... The Arctic regions like the Barents Sea... Etc... Simmons, Campbell and the crowd at ASPO etc have all written extensivly about Peak Oil but for some these writings have become religion. In this the Peak Oil Sect is blind to the fact that technology and development happens! Deep Sea drilling has come a long long way and new techniques are applied every day. Oil is being found in many places around the world.... Yet it has to be said Peak Oil is Good Business.... However if you are of the belife that you know Peak Oil happened on say the 15th of August 2005, well then you are not taking the little pink pills your Doctor gave you.... The point being none on this planet really knows how much oil there is in the ground. On this keep in mind that most oil fields are "dry" after only about 30% of the Oil in Place has been extracted. Hence there is 70% still in the ground. New techniques like Fracturing and Horisontal drills are increasing the yield harvested from current and old fields. In this if the average percentage of extraction from the worlds current oil fields can be increased by 5%, well then that adds the amount of recoverable oil equal to one Saudi Arabia.... Well worth a try... The Stone Age did not end for a lack of Stones and the Oil Age will end long before oil runs out..... 21/2 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 4.2 mmbls (API + 5.5 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.1 mmbls (API - 3.0 mmbls) Distillates - 4.5 mmbls (API - 5.8 mmbls) Natural Gas - 127 Bcf Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.83 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.38 mmbopd Refineries 83.5% - 1.6% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 3.7 mmbls Refiners are simply refining less product as supplies are ample and for Gasoline building well above the average for year on year. US Refiners are adjusting to the coming slowdown. The build in Gasoline and Crude make this a market negative report. Heading into the spring-summer period these are the two to watch. 21/2 GMT 02.32 CRB Index 21/2 GMT 01.23 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Year End Report I did call it somber and well it was as far as the production numbers go, yet with the year the company has had... All you had to do was do the maths... Wan Machar-1 Sudan is imminent.. You just got to have a little faith. 2008 will be a Very Interesting Year... 21/2 GMT 01.19 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX All things considered and from where I am sitting I can see absolutely no need for the company to take in further financing from the market place at this time... 19/2 GMT 07.29 Castro Resigns There is a rumour that the Dictator actually is Dead. The offial news is that Fidel Castro has resigned as Cuba's President and commander in chief. 19/2 GMT 01.22 Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria! We see the remergence of the "Tipping Point" thesis amongst the "Man Made Climate Change Fundamentalists".. The tipping Point theory says that on a planet that is 4.6 Billion years old humans after 200 years of industrial activity have alone created grounds for a form of Peak Monsoon, Peak Gulf Stream or Why not Peak Ice and all at the same time more or less... This then all due to CO2 emissions which according to the Fundamentalists drives Temperature change.. When the facts without a doubt state that the opposite is true, Temperature Change leads CO2 Change by about a 1000 years.. After 200 years of industrial activity humans are responsible for the following about to occur, - Melting of Arctic sea-ice (could take 10 years). - Decay of the Greenland ice sheet (more than 300 years). - Collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet (more than 300 years). - Collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (approx 100 years). - Increase in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (approx 100 years). - Collapse of the Indian summer monsoon (approx 1 year). Sorry India by this time next year your ....! - Greening of the Sahara/Sahel and disruption of the West African monsoon (approx 10 years). - Dieback of the Amazon rainforest (approx 50 years). This one actually makes sense due to mindless logging... - Dieback of the Boreal Forest (approx 50 years). Ofcourse all of this can be saved and averted by way of TAXATION... Again Temperature Change leads CO2 Change by about a 1000 years.. By the way Mushrooms take up Oxygen and produce Carbon Dioxide so I guess Mushrooms should be TAXED heavily.... Hell why not just Outlaw Mushrooms! Stop the Man Made Climate Change Hysteria! 18/2 GMT 07.29 China - Oil Demand 1993 2.5 mmbopd 1994 3.0 mmbopd 1995 3.3 mmbopd 1996 3.5 mmbopd 1997 4.0 mmbopd 1998 4.5 mmbopd 1999 4.6 mmbopd 2000 4.7 mmbopd 2001 4.8 mmbopd 2002 5.0 mmbopd 2003 5.3 mmbopd 2004 6.6 mmbopd 2005 6.4 mmbopd 2006 6.9 mmbopd 2007 7.5 mmbopd 2008 7.8 mmbopd (prognosis) In this note that about 47% of Chinas Crude is imported. This sites estimate for 2007 demand was 7.6 mmbopd... See earlier postings. 18/2 GMT 06.45 Venezuela - Hugo Chavez As expected Chavez will not cut oil supplies to the US... Chavez - "We don't have plans to stop sending oil to the United States, but Venezuela could cut off supplies to the United States if Washington attacks Venezuela or tries to harm us".... What a Muppet! 18/2 GMT 05.19 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Year End Report Out on the 20th of this month I expect it to be somber on the numbers due to production problems but positive on the outlook and in this it is very easy to point to the details such as the Sudan, oil finds in Norway and Indonesia, a drill in Russia. Again just contemplate the value of the company's deal with Russia! This company is all about forward looking and so should its investors be. For sure the share has taken a hit as have most oilers but to be company specific a neutral report with lotīs of goodies coming up. 18/2 GMT 05.07 Iran - New Oil Exchange The first trade on the Iranian Oil Exchange was for a transaction in the petrochemical product linear low-density polyethylene... I guess NYMEX can sleep easy tonight. Especially as Crude transactions over the exchange are set to start - not anytime soon. 18/2 GMT 01.17 Brazil - Tupi It was estimated to contain 5 Billion Barrels but it does seem that could be a little low with latest estimates coming in at 30 Billion Barrels of intermediate or medium gravity oil of 28-30 API... The inital test saw 30 API with a flow of 4600 bopd With a Natural Gas flow of 4.3 MMscf... The discovery was made in the Pre-salt Strata which is a new oil play with it does seem huge potential. As was shown by the Natural Gas find in the Jupiter field only 37 Km from Tupi... Estimates of size etc of Jupiter are still ongoing but it looks like Brazil just made a good case for a seat in OPEC.... Another body-blow to the Peak Oil Fanatics... Oh by the way if Tupi does contain 30 Billion Barrels well that is one half of what the North Sea contained before extraction was started all those years ago... Half a North Sea.. 17/2 GMT 05.01 Iran - New Oil Exchange Apparently after much delay and bits the Iranians are Today to launch the New Oil Exchange where any currency but the US Dollar is a good currency. Russia never a nation to pass up a chance to demonstrate its jealousy of the US has proposed that the Rouble be one of the currencies. Aswell as the Yen and Euro and I suppose even the Zimbabwe Dollar.... The question is - Is this going to have an effect on the market? Probably not as much of this is political yet therein lay the real danger... The Iranian Oil Exchange is only one part of a larger puzzle... A small man in a gabardine suit and clerics with their heads in the 12 century have brought Iran to the brink, because even if the media have lost interest in the, US - Iran dynamic it is there and if what could happen actually would happen well then we are all in for a wake-up call. Iranian supported Terrorist are talking war against Israel. Iran continues to seek a nuclear bomb status and in this it tests space rockets while the economy is faultering. Large wars have grown out of far leaner soil and one can only hope that the discussions between USA and Iran on a secret level a few weeks ago actually will lead somewhere. 16/2 GMT 04.17 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - 5B Look for an imminent second Spud in the block. Yet do remember this is a PETRONAS Play. 16/2 GMT 04.16 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX & Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Despite the Global issues in the marketplace, despite all other considerations these two companies are going to have a Very Interesting 2008.... 15/2 GMT 03.23 USA - Dr Greenspan - Recession Former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has stated that the US economy is on the edge of recession and cautioned conditions would continue to erode until housing prices stabilized. Dr Greenspan, speaking before energy executives at a CERA conference in Houston also said the US housing market was a long way from bottoming out. 14/2 GMT 02.41 CRB Index 13/2 GMT 15.35 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Nyal-1 And the Next Shoe Dropped ie a Spud in Sudan... Before a commercial oil find was made in the Sudan oil companies had drilled 78 test holes.. Yet the consortium have had a good long while to do the pre-drill planning so you have to be optimistic about Nyal-1.. The gross unrisked recoverable prospective resource for the Nyal-1 well is estimated to be 176 mmbls. 13/2 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 1.1 mmbls (API + 1.3 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.7 mmbls (API + 0.6 mmbls) Distillates - 0.1 mmbls (API - 0.5 mmbls) Natural Gas - 120 Bcf Crude Import 9.7 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.84 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.28 mmbopd Refineries 85.1% + 0.8% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.7 mmbls 12/2 GMT 07.33 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 4.2 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 2.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.1 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas - 167 Bcf Crude Import 10.4 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.31 mmbopd Refineries 84.5% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 10.1 mmbls Note in this that Venezuelas Citgo Petroleum Corp brought back on line part of itīs plant in Lake Charles... Otherwise US Refineries are in seasonal work-over mode so Stats can be difficult but the trend is set for a fifth week of builds for Crude. 12/2 GMT 07.11 CRB Index Looks great! Up is the tune... Yet there is the well known effect in commodities called the "Ketchup Effect"... 12/2 GMT 05.23 Australia - Business Confidence Australian business confidence fell to its lowest level in nearly a decade in January amid growing concerns over the health of the global economy and expectations of further rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia. A gauge of business confidence compiled by the National Australia Bank fell 9 points to minus 4 in January. The reading was the most pessimistic ever recorded by the monthly index apart from a brief period following the Sept 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the US. 12/2 GMT 03.32 USA - Presidential Elections A prediction. The Next President and Vice President - McCain/Powell... 12/2 GMT 03.19 Iran - New Rocket Launch Look for Iran to launch two more Rockets in the near future. Probably of the same type ie Safir-1 launched earlier this month. 12/2 GMT 02.35 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX So letīs talk about LUPE... One of the other "why did I not buy it" stocks.... For one I do belive or rather I know that the market in general has not fully understood the significance of LUPEīs Russian venture. The Lundins know how to speak RealPolitik.. The fact that a small oiler from the West is able to maneuver a deal in an environment of nationalization is unique and again not fully understood. The North Sea is a safe bet in the oil industry as it has infrastructure and is close to market etc.. The Barents Sea is a new exploration area that far larger companies than LUPE have not been invited to partake in... Indonesia just saw a small oil find for the company and in this it is not the size of the find it is the diversification.. DIVERSIFICATION ie spread your risks! The Sudan is Sudan and I have long held the belife that it should be sold but I did change my mind last year and well we have come this far so better to go on find hydrocarbons and then sell it! I see no peace in the region anytime soon.. The stock has seen better days and there has been much frustration in the market concerning this but the company has done what the Lundins are so good at ie moved on. Stuck to the plan and bided time. This has been the case for this company and others in the sphere since their inception. 2008 is going to be a very interesting year, very... The Next Shoe to Drop.. 11/2 GMT 21.16 Venezuela - Hugo Chavez Chavez is a muppet and his rants and raves are about as interesting to watch and listen to. Chavez threatens to cut oil supplies to the US.. Well the problem is he would be cutting off his own source of income. Citgo is a chain of gas stations found across the US, 1500 stations to be exact and Citgo also has refining capacity in the US to the tune of 750.000 mbopd. Citgo is owned by PDSVA which happens to be the Venezuelan State owned Oil Company. Also about 60% of Venezuelas Crude oil exports go to the US of A.... 10/2 GMT 04.20 Iran - 90 Billion barrels Oil Reserves in the Persian Gulf The managing director of the National Iranian Continental Shelf Oil Company, Mahmoud Zirakchian Zadeh said on Saturday that Iran's oil reserve in the Persian Gulf are estimated at 90 billion barrels. "With new oil discovery in the region, the reserve may amount to 100 billion barrels". Mahmoud Zirakchian Zadeh said that Iranian oil reserves in the Persian Gulf were estimated at 53 billion barrels last year meanwhile, the Persian Gulf has great potentials to uncover new oil and gas fields. Case in point the newly found gas field at Farsi. 9/2 GMT 04.01 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway The proposed new licenses are as follows; PL006D 75% interest, operator Lupe PL492 40% interest, operator Lupe PL490 40% interest, operator Lupe PL453S 30% interest, operator Lupe PL476 30% interest, operator DNO PL486S 30% interest, operator EON PL487S 30% interest, operator EON 8/2 GMT 00.33 Year of the Rat Gong Xi Fa Cai - Xin Nian Kuai Le 8/2 GMT 00.31 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX So letīs talk about LUPE... One of the other "why did I not buy it" stocks.... 7/2 GMT 21.49 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Read the latest Report from the company and in this I do mean really read the Report! The 14th will make things clearer yet it is times like these in markets like these that you find the "why did I not buy it" stocks. TYK is one of them.... Oh by the way did you get the - Spring of TYKS message. This site is not for Dummies...! 7/2 GMT 17.12 Oil - WTI $86.50 is an important support level for WTI and trade during the day has been as low as $86.24. Continued trade below the support level indicates a drop down to the early $80īs. Geopoliticals like Nigeria, Iran and Norway do lend some support to the price. 7/2 GMT 01.20 Iran - Oil Output Irans daily output has hit a post 1979 high of just under 4.2 mmbopd, yeaterday actually. At the same time Iran is set to bring online the Azadegan oilfield in time for the February 12 aniversary of the Islamic Revolution. Azadegan has a proven reserve of 33 Billion barrels with a probable reserve of 40 Billion barrels. At the same time it should be noted that the Iranian oil industry due to long time sanctions needs something in the order of $20 to $30 Billion of investment in infrastructure mainly refining capacity to be able to fully utilize its resources. 6/2 GMT 15.43 Iran - US Military Strike - Russia Even the Russians can no longer deny the fact that Irans Space Rocket launch of the Safir-1 rocket on Monday is a pretty fair preamble to Iran actually having a Nuclear Bomb programme. 6/2 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 7.0 mmbls (API + 7.6 mmbls) Gasoline + 3.6 mmbls (API + 5.6 mmbls) Distillates + 0.1 mmbls (API - 2.0 mmbls) Natural Gas - 200 Bcf Crude Import 10.5 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.37 mmbopd Refineries 84.3% -0.7% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 9.6 mmbls One week does not a market make but the trend right now says and has said for awhile that the US is going to see a build in supplies. Crude build for the fourth week running.. Gasoline demand is about 1% above last year while Distillate demand is down by 0.8% year on year. Note the build in Gasoline... 5/2 GMT 19.42 USA - The Fed Itīs not Rocket Science to gage that there is a better than 75% chance that The Fed will move again on the Funds Rate sooner rather than later. I expect a further 50 point move well before the March FOMC meeting. 5/2 GMT 02.47 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out 6/1 I expect, Crude + 3.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 2.1 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.26 mmbopd Refineries 84.9% Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.2 mmbls The Houston Shipping Channel (HSC) has been partially closed during Sunday and Monday due to seasonally occuring fog, with some ships getting through but this is for next weeks stats. Fog is an intermittent problem in winter along the Gulf Coast, a major US refining centre which accounts for 14% of US refining capacity. I expect a build for the fourth week running for Crude and with Gasoline demand waining and Distillate demand way below a winter season average there will be more pressure on the contracts after this report. 1/2 GMT 23.22 The Price of Oil What the world needs now is cheaper oil... The world is well supplied with oil as I have pointed to before yet oil still costs too much for the global economy and especially the US economy to make it through this very rough patch that is coming. If Crude stays at around $90 going forward then the US economy is going to go into a possible free-fall as the summer season comes into view. $90 oil would mean that crack spreads are going to drive Gasoline prices up towards $4 a Gallon and in a Recession type economy that is just simply crazy and a sure guarantee that we will see not only a US recession but a possible and more dire global consequence. Given that the contracts have been driven by the fall of the dollar and geopoliticals but those effects aside the price of oil is too high. To save the global economy from a major slowdown and in this none is immune not China, India the EU in fact none is immune. The price of oil needs to retreat into the $60 to $70 range. Something most should start adjusting to as the indicators are pointing to this level. 31/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Note the huge draw in Natural Gas storage - 274 Bcf. The largest one week draw I belive all time.. 30/1 GMT 21.22 Iran - China Iran now supplies China with 13% of its Crude Oil and the expectations are that this number will increase going forward, always nice with a customer that has a permanent seat on the UNīs Security Council.. 30/1 GMT 21.18 USA - The Fed The Fed has now reduced the funds rate by 1.25% in 8 days... The pain is far from over in fact its just beginning... Check out the problems I earlier pointed to - the Bond Insurers... 30/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 3.6 mmbls (API + 0.1 mmbls) Gasoline + 3.6 mmbls (API - 0.4 mmbls) Distillates - 1.5 mmbls (API - 3.9 mmbls) Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.28 mmbopd Refineries 85.0% Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 1.0 mmbls 29/1 GMT 23.48 USA - The Fed A 50 point reduction in the Fed Fund Rate is by 75% in the market. Cool if they stayed the course and simply said we have done what we could for the market now itīs up to You. This ofcourse will not happen as after the 50 points another 50 to 75 will be needed but the thought does tickle the senses... 29/1 GMT 23.46 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 2.7 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 3.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.3 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd Refineries 86.8% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 4.8 mmbls The US is in a storage build situation for Crude. Demand for Heating Oil is down due to Naturally occurring Climate Change! There have been no major supply interruptions in the US over the latest period. Unless the sky falls overnight I expect few if any bullish numbers from this Report. 29/1 GMT 13.01 OPEC OPEC is now considering lower production quotas going forward due to the economic slowdown and lower demand numbers. Oh yeah OPEC and the world is still not running out of oil by the way. A fact that has to be pointed out to the Peak Oil fringe who see every production reduction as a sign that their religion is the one... *g* 28/1 GMT 02.07 USA - The Market Big week ahead... If you look at the Pimco analysis of the US treasury market the Fed Funds rate is still about 1.5% above the level of balance. Big week indeed as most of the numbers I belive will simply verify that which is apparent. Recession. 24/1 GMT 19.45 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX 2007 saw the Summer of TYKS... 150 SEK plus.. I foresee a very interesting Spring of TYKS. Also very nice trading ranges of late... 24/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 2.3 mmbls (API + 1.5 mmbls) Gasoline + 5.0 mmbls (API + 2.5 mmbls) Distillates - 1.3 mmbls (API - 0.36 mmbls) Natural gas - 155 Bcf Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.24 mmbopd Refineries 86.5% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.2 mmbls Gasoline and Distillate demand backed off some and with the relatively mild winter in the US the build in the Gasoline storage should be a negative for that market. A neutral to negative market report. 24/1 GMT 02.56 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 3.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 0.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.5 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.3 mmbopd Refineries 87.5% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.2 mmbls 23/1 GMT 09.09 The Market - In General It worries me that so few have caught on to the fact that we are heading for a real slowdown... The Bank of China yesterday stopped trading in Shanghai due to credit loses in the US sub-prime market. This is only the beginning as Japan and China are huge lenders to the US economy. Further the bond insurers and reinsurers in the US are only now starting to take a hit. End of year 2007 financial reports are going to be very interesting to read for the - Financials. Analysts from India and China are stating that their economies are insulated from the US problems, Western problems. This is a joke as India and much more so China are tied to the US economy like never before. It is a Global Economy with all that that entails... Anyone who has read this site for awhile should not or could not be surprised by what is happening as the writing has been on the wall since early last year. Dr Greenspan called this one in April 2007... That trading will be good going forward is a given and volatility is the life-blood of the market yet remember that there are a huge mass of investors and even analysts, traders etc out there that have not been through a really painfull market before.... 23/1 GMT 09.09 Davos - Economic Summit - Royal Dutch Shell CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, Jeroen van der Veer, emphasized that the world is not running out of oil and gas supplies. There are no queues to gas stations and not one singular customer has not gotten the oil, gasoline or distillates he needs. Ie there is no lack of oil in the marketplace. Jeroen van der Veer pointed to speculation and trade in the contracts as the main driver of the price of crude and products.... 22/1 GMT 13.48 BP Economist - No imminent Peak to Oil production BP Economist: no imminent peak to oil production By Lananh Nguyen Jan. 17, 2008 BP economist Wednesday said the world isn't facing an impending oil shortage, rejecting the so-called 'peak oil' theory. "An imminent peak in production has been repeatedly and wrongly predicted," said Peter Davies, special economic advisor to BP and formerly the company's chief economist. The peak oil argument states world oil production is approaching, or has already reached, its maximum. But Davies said limited access in oil-rich nations to outside investors, unfavorable tax regimes and lack of investment were to blame for the limits on oil supply growth. "It's not a resource issue, it's an investment issue," Davies said, speaking at a meeting held by the U.K.'s All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas. Davies said world oil production would peak eventually - but not any time soon, and not for lack of oil in the ground. He argued climate change policies encouraging a shift away from oil consumption would lead to "peak demand," and discourage further oil production growth. "There's a distinct possibility that global oil production could peak because of climate change policies," rather than a shortage of oil, he said. Data for 2006 show world oil reserves stood at 1.2 trillion barrels, according to BP's 2007 Statistical Review of World Energy. "Proved oil reserves continue to climb in the long run," BP said in the report. "Reserves have grown 72.9 billion barrels since 2001 and 159.2 billion barrels or 15% over the last decade." Meanwhile, the world still has 14 trillion barrels of conventional and unconventional oil "in place," with conventional oil accounting for half the total, according to Davies. Oil in place refers to the total amount contained in a reservoir, and isn't a measure of the amount of crude that can be recovered or produced. New technologies could also add to world's oil resource base - including enhanced oil recovery techniques, biofuels and unconventional oils such as tar sands, Davies said. Davies' comments echo BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward's rejection of the peak oil argument.... 16/1 GMT 14.36 OPEC As expected OPEC will not increase production, and in this there is the question why should they? The answer is they should Not because - THE WORLD IS MORE THAN WELL SUPPLIED WITH OIL!!!! 16/1 GMT 00.55 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Canaccord Analysis Interesting is the target level of about 180 SEK... Please see my earlier posts.... 9/1 GMT 08.58 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 0.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.9 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 0.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.18 mmbopd Refineries 89.5% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.5 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 3.2 mmbls Tricky week as we are heading into a build situation. Warm weather due to NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE does play a part. Crude should show a build for the first time in weeks. On a side note you have to love the guy who bought 1.000 barrels of of WTI at $100 only to make a loss of $680... Anything to get your name on the board I suppose. What a fool.... 17/12 GMT 12.39 Oil - Iraq - Production Iraqs oil production is currently running at 2.3 mmbopd this then up from 1.9 mmbopd earlier this year. Which means that the current production is above the pre-war 2003 level. 17/12 GMT 12.37 Island Oil & Gas - IOG:LSE - Albania Island Oil & Gas announces that its wholly owned subsidiary Island International Exploration BV has acquired the remaining 50% equity interest in the Durresi Block offshore Albania from Lundin Albania BV and that this transfer of interest has now been formally approved by the National Agency of Natural Resources in the Republic of Albania. Lundin Petroleum have been interested in getting out of this license for a while now so this is not huge news.. Note that Lundin have a 3.65% share in Island Oil & Gas..... 16/12 GMT 13.03 Oil - The Market The cost of One Barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil is about $91... Down from $93... The cost of One Barrel of StarBucks Coffee is still about $680... I am in this letting you think about the issue, consider the numbers... 15/12 GMT 22.15 Stop the Change Climate Change Hysteria Two articles from the Canadian National Post that very clearly reflects or rather states the view held by many in the scientific field on the Madness of - Change Climate Change or Man-made Climate Change... Note that most have been part of the IPCC considerations...

Don't fight, Adapt! We should give up futile attempts to combat climate change

National Post Published: Thursday, December 13, 2007 Open Letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations Dec. 13, 2007 His Excellency Ban Ki-Moon Secretary-General, United Nations New York, N.Y. Dear Mr. Secretary-General, Re: UN climate conference taking the World in entirely the wrong direction It is not possible to stop climate change, a natural phenomenon that has affected humanity through the ages. Geological, archaeological, oral and written histories all attest to the dramatic challenges posed to past societies from unanticipated changes in temperature, precipitation, winds and other climatic variables. We therefore need to equip nations to become resilient to the full range of these natural phenomena by promoting economic growth and wealth generation. 14/12 GMT 19.00 The Great Global Warming Swindle The film is worth watching especially for those who are indoctrinated by the media CO2 fluff.... Download this video The Great Global Warming Swindle as to how you view it is all up to the media player you use... You may have to convert the file. The file is a large 328 Mb... 12/12 GMT 23.25 New Zealand - The Change Climate Change Hysteria National Geographic News - New Zealand Tries to Cap Gaseous Sheep Burps... New Zealand scientists trying to curb their country's influence on global warming may have found an answer to belch about: Livestock that eat plants high in condensed tannins produce up to 16 percent less methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Methane is one of the three most potent gases that some scientists say are causing the Earth to warm up at an accelerated and unnatural rate. Carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels is the most common greenhouse gas in the world. "New Zealand is unique in that over 50 percent of its greenhouse gas emissions arise from methane released by enteric fermentation," said Katharine Hayhoe, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois. Enteric fermentation is methane produced as part of the normal digestive process of animals, such as cows and sheep. It is primarily released in the form of burps. The 45 million sheep and 10 million cattle in New Zealand make for a lot of burped methane—about 90 percent of that country's methane emissions, according to government figures. For comparison, livestock are responsible for about 2 percent of the United States' greenhouse gas emissions, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. I am laughing so hard I can hardly breath.....!!! 12/12 GMT 22.15 Oil Oil the Contracts Cold weather expected for the US North East, the US, UK & Co Central Banks decision to at least be concerned about the credit problem, oil spill in the North Sea and in some small part the Inventory report drove the contracts nicelly today. The US inventory report when dissected was not that bullish yet when the market moves it moves. A good day allround. 12/12 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 0.7 mmbls (API + 1.4 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.6 mmbls (API + 2.5 mmbls) Distillates - 0.8 mmbls (API - 1.7 mmbls) Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd + 0.7 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd - 0.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.17 mmbopd - 0.8 mmbopd Refineries 88.8% -0.4% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 1.2 mmbls The stock storage for Crude at Cushing is again showing a build, four weeks running. The build last week was 1.7 mmbls.. Not a report that is going to run with the Bulls, fairly neutral. 11/12 GMT 19.16 USA - The Fed Hats off to the Boston Fedīs Eric Rosengren who wanted a 0.5% cut. Interesting statement that really calls for a larger cut.. That the Discount Rate was not cut by 0.5% is just wrong. You have to feel sorry for small US Banks that want to borrow for local needs and Small Business Mainstreet that is going to have a tougher time than needed. Funds Rate 4.25% - 0.25% Discount Rate 4.75% - 0.25% 11/12 GMT 14.57 Norway - The Climate Change Hysteria on Steroids OSLO (Reuters) - Norway's finance ministry played down comments by Finance Minister Kristen Halvorsen in a Norwegian newspaper on Tuesday signaling that Norway's oil production may be cut for environmental reasons. Top-selling tabloid VG quoted Halvorsen as saying that if new environmental taxes were put on oil production it could reduce the value of Norway's oil deposits, possibly to zero. "One can imagine a situation in the future where oil, in the worst case, is prohibited and valued at zero," VG quoted Halvorsen as saying from Bali, Indonesia, where she is attending a U.N. conference on counteracting climate change. "Again I pray that there’s intelligent life somewhere up in Space, Cause there’s bugger all down here on Earth." 11/12 GMT 11.21 Russia - Dmitry Medvedev In his first speech since being namned as Putins successor Mr Medvedev states that Russian President Vladimir Putin should become Prime Minister after stepping down next year.... 10/12 GMT 23.57 USA - The Fed Prediction, Funds Rate 4.0% - 0.5% Discount Rate 4.5% - 0.5% 10/12 GMT 23.39 Russia - Dmitry Medvedev The chairman of Gazprom gets the nod to be Putin's successor... The Lundin sphere of companies in Russia have had varying degrees of contact with Mr Medvedev since he came to Gazprom in 2002. "Mr Medvedev earlier this month, said it was time for Gazprom, as the world's biggest gas company, to promote its international image by positioning itself on stock exchanges in New York and Shanghai." 10/12 GMT 15.23 Noble Peace Prize Al Gore and the UNīs IPCC are handed the Peace Prize on this day. If that is not a Monty Python Moment I donīt know what would be... Yet take heart humans as we are Omnipotent! Not only are Humans the sole reason for Climate Change, this on a planet that is 4 Billion Years Old where Climate Change has occured in natural cycles for well letīs see 4 Billion Years... BUT Humans are so omnipotent that Humans can actually Change Climate Change... Our weapon to Change Climate Change is - Taxation!! "I pray that there’s intelligent life somewhere up in Space, Cause there’s bugger all down here on Earth." 10/12 GMT 15.16 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan Ofcourse it is in Petronas hands as site operator but I would be very surprised to not see a drill bit in the ground before New Year, very surprised.. 6/12 GMT 22.43 Oil - The Market The cost of One Barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil is about $90... Up from $88... The cost of One Barrel of StarBucks Coffee is still about $680... So obviously according to the "Peak Oil Fanatics" the world is running out of Coffee.... And more importantly the world is according to the "Peak Oil Fanatics" running out of oil... Well that is actually the whole basis for their point of view... More on this.... Bare with me there is method to my madness... *G* 6/12 GMT 22.19 EU - Oil Demand 2004 14.48 mmbopd 2005 14.54 mmbopd 2006 14.59 mmbopd 2007 14.68 mmbopd (estimate) The range for 2007 is 14.60 mmbopd to 14.68 mmbopd... 6/12 GMT 20.34 China - Oil Demand 1993 2.5 mmbopd 1994 3.0 mmbopd 1995 3.3 mmbopd 1996 3.5 mmbopd 1997 4.0 mmbopd 1998 4.5 mmbopd 1999 4.6 mmbopd 2000 4.7 mmbopd 2001 4.8 mmbopd 2002 5.0 mmbopd 2003 5.3 mmbopd 2004 6.6 mmbopd 2005 6.4 mmbopd 2006 6.9 mmbopd 2007 7.6 mmbopd (estimate) The estimate for 2007 is in the range of 7.15 mmbopd to 7.6 mmbopd... 6/12 GMT 20.31 India - Oil Demand 1993 1.3 mmbopd 1994 1.4 mmbopd 1995 1.6 mmbopd 1996 1.7 mmbopd 1997 1.8 mmbopd 1998 1.8 mmbopd 1999 2.0 mmbopd 2000 2.1 mmbopd 2001 2.2 mmbopd 2002 2.2 mmbopd 2003 2.35 mmbopd 2004 2.35 mmbopd 2005 2.35 mmbopd 2006 2.4 mmbopd 2007 2.45 mmbopd (estimate) The estimate for 2007 is in the range of 2.41 mmbopd to 2.45 mmbopd... 6/12 GMT 10.52 OPEC - Production OPEC did the only thing they could or should and have signalled for weeks they would ie keep production at the current level. Because and I am writing this very slowly so that everyone can understand, - The world is more than well supplied with Oil... Maybe I should write it again... *g* 6/12 GMT 10.48 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - OMXS30 Lupe heads into the OMXS30 Index which means it is going to become a must buy for most if not all of the larger index, pension and spread funds... 5/12 GMT 18.59 Oil - Technology Enhancements BPīs subsea multi-phase pumps at 1.700 meters is a breakthrough as it increases the yield from The King Oilfield in the Gulf of New Mexico by 20% and adds 5 years to itīs production cycle. This is a huge boost for other Deep Sea projects around the world. Technology....