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5/12 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 8.0 mmbls (API - 8.0 mmbls) Gasoline + 4.0 mmbls (API + 3.6 mmbls) Distillates + 1.4 mmbls (API + 0.75 mmbls) Natural Gas - 88 Bcf Crude Import 9.4 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.3 mmbopd Refineries 89.4% +-0.0% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 3.8 mmbls Imports of crude were down by 1.0 mmbopd which hurts the Crude numbers also Refiners are at a brisk level. Increases in the imports for the products and + 0.7 mmbls more Crude at Cushing. 3/12 GMT 09.38 Oil - The Market The cost of One Barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil is about $88... Down from $98... The cost of One Barrel of StarBucks Coffee is still about $680... So obviously according to the "Peak Oil Fanatics" the world is running out of Coffee.... More on this.... 3/12 GMT 09.32 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX & Pearl Exploration - PXX:TSX OK a little bit more about TYK... And PXX... Many synergies.. Heavy Oil is the name of the game. Just a heads Up! 1/12 GMT 15.38 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Syria - Tishrine and Sheikh-Mansour Infrastructure, it is all about infrastructure... As a wise man once said - "100 mmbls in the North Sea is worth more than 1000 mmbls in Africa". Given Syria is not Africa but the point has relevance ie it is the availability and proximity to infrastructure that adds value to a reserve.... An excisting Pipeline and in the future refining capacity in a relatively close geographical location which on the whole is of less importance as the fact that Syria is building a capacity to refine is the real winner. 30/11 GMT 21.34 Syria - Syroil 2008 Have a look att who was there in 2006... And will be again in 2008. 30/11 GMT 17.00 Syria - New Refinery Syrian Oil Minister Sufiyan Al-AW announced this month that in order to double Syria's deep refining capability and to be able to process crude oil from neighboring Iraq, Syria is planning to build a $3 billion refinery with Noor Financial Investment Company of Kuwait. Noor Financial will establish a company to exclusively work on the project in Dayr az Zawr Province in eastern Syria. This is the second new refinery construction project announced by Syria within one week. The Dayr az Zawr Refinery will have a production capacity of 140,000 barrels of oil per day, which is as much as is currently produced by the two main refineries of Homs, in central Syria, and Banyas, on the Western Coast. 29/11 GMT 09.07 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Kenya - Block 10BB Lupe have made a play for Block 10BB onshore that is now licensed to the UK based Turkana Drilling Company, yet new rules for acquiring licenses means that Lupe will have to pay a fee to the Ministry of Energy.. A procedure which is pretty much standard practice in most countries. So Lupe goes even more Kenya! 28/11 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 0.4 mmbls (API - 5.3 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.4 mmbls (API + 0.1 mmbls) Distillates - 0.1 mmbls (API + 2.6 mmbls) Crude Import 10.4 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.83 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.2 mmbopd Refineries 89.4% + 2.4% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 1.8 mmbls Check out the refinery numbers! A further + 0.6 mmbls increase at Cushing.. The one to watch is the API numbers as they are more an indicator of Crude and Product in the system, ie in transit. That API reports a huge draw in Crude is all due to the + 2.4% in Refinery output. A market negative report. 28/11 GMT 13.31 The Great Swedish Oil Scam! The owners behind Benchmark Oil & Gas AB have started another scam in Texas Onshore AB... The brothers Lernesjö have been active in Sweden for over two decades and have separated fools from their money for the same amount of time! That the companies are allowed to be listed on the smaller exchanges says more about the exchanges than anything else. Again Stay away!! 28/11 GMT 12.20 Falkland Oil & Gas - FOGL:AIM • BHP Billiton will increase its interest to 51% from the 40% announced on 2 October 2007 • FOGL retains a very substantial stake in the licences • BHP Billiton will pay FOGL an additional US$2.75 million in reimbursement of historical costs • The decision by BHP Billiton to increase its interests in our licences further confirms our view of the significant petroleum potential of the South and East Falkland Basins The Falkland Basin does contain oil and at least BHP are betting on it being, a lot... Shell did have oil at the surface during the late 1990īs test round.. 27/11 GMT 08.35 PA Resources - PAR:SAX I have never liked this company or the hype surrounding it. That they now are seeking to fleece share holders out of another 25.000.000 shares is as I see it more of the same... The company has dwindeling resources and few new real plans to actually do something about it. Please read the company reports, I mean really read them with a critical eye! 26/11 GMT 10.11 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan Spud The word imminent lost a bit of itīs worth due to considerations on the ground but I see a drill bit in the ground very soon. 25/11 GMT 10.57 Oil - The Market The cost of One Barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil is about $98... The cost of One Barrel of StarBucks Coffee is about $680... More on this... 23/11 GMT 18.02 West Siberian Resources Ltd - WSIBSDB:STO - Rosprirodnadzor That Rosprirodnadzor is a fickle beast is well known yet the media attention caused by Swedish Tv4īs reporting may actually have helped West Siberian in the matter of the Kolvinskoye license. This is not a stock I own or follow so there you are, yet in todays media world a little story can sometimes do a lot... Given a speculative comment. Also the amount of PR the company has gained over the few days is invaluable.. 22/11 GMT 22.49 West Siberian Resources Ltd - WSIBSDB:STO Rule number one in Oil Exploration - Donīt piss off the locals. Rule number two in Oil Exploration - See rule number one... 22/11 GMT 01.13 Longreach Oil Ltd - LGO:ASX The Australian company gets a 30% share in the Tarfaya Basin onshore Morocco.. This in cohorts with Island Oil & Gas IOG:LSE. Island Oil & Gas is owned in part ie 3.65% by a certain Lundin... Major share-holder in IOG is however the Bermuda based Platinum Petroleum Limited. 21/11 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 1.1 mmbls (API + 0.3 mmbls) Gasoline + 0.2 mmbls (API + 2.6 mmbls) Distillates - 2.4 mmbls (API - 3.6 mmbls) Natural Gas + 4 Bcf Crude Import 9.8 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.27 mmbopd Refineries 87% - 0.6% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 6.9 mmbls At first sigth a positive report yet when you read the small print you can see that the crude numbers are about where in the system they are and at Cushing, Okla a major delivery point for Nymex Crude there was a build of + 1.2 mmbls.. The API numbers in part point to this. A neutral to negative report. 21/11 GMT 03.38 Oil - The Market - WTI $100 As a result of the fall of the US Dollar WTI has topped $99.29 in Asian trade and the $100 level seems to be set for a breach today. In this the inflation adjusted ATH for WTI is $102 from 1982... 21/11 GMT 02.09 AIK - AIK:NGM A Swedish football club listed in Stockholm that could become an interesting play as Bert Milton owner of Private Media Group - PRVT:NASDAQ an adult publishing company listed on Nasdaq is buying this stock to the tune of 8.4% of outstanding stock. The interesting bit in this play is not the way Milton makes his money but the fact that wealthy private owners of football clubs have generally done rather well in the past.. Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United etc in the UK. A privately owned AIK would be a first for Sweden and the stock is ripe for the taking all things considered... 21/11 GMT 02.01 Dr Greenspan The good doctor called the events we are heading into very early this year and I for one have had more than an eye on that prediction in all trades during the year. The signs of late as I alluded to earlier are all there for a major correction or at least a fall due to the "R" word being more and more a fact for the US economy. Several sectors in the US are already in recession and with Freddie Mac the latest to post a warning - The signs are more than out there... 21/11 GMT 01.27 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 1.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 0.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas + 5 Bcf Crude Import 10.6 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.21 mmbopd Refineries 88.2% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.8 mmbls Lend an eye to the API stats from last week... 15/11 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 2.8 mmbls (API + 3.2 mmbls) Gasoline + 0.7 mmbls (API + 1.8 mmbls) Distillates - 2.0 mmbls (API - 1.1 mmbls) Natural Gas - 9 Bcf Crude Import 10.5 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.20 mmbopd Refineries 87.7% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.7 mmbls 14/11 GMT 18.41 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - UK Block 21/8 in PL 1107 They do have something here... Two out of three drills in the North Sea gave oil... 14/11 GMT 03.15 Brazil - Tupi With Brazil becoming an oil nation of note I would advice you to look at the country as an investment consideration, and in this point out that when California saw the gold rush the people who by in large made the safest money out of the event were the folk who sold shovels.... 14/11 GMT 03.11 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API The statistics will be out on 15/11 due to Veterans Day in the US. Estimates pending.. 14/11 GMT 01.12 OPEC - Daily Oil Production My estimates for October posted on 7/11 were 31.233 mmbopd when OPEC had an actual daily production of 31.110 mmbopd.. 13/11 GMT 20.34 OPEC- Saudi Arabia - The Oil Price The oil minister of OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia said on Tuesday that fears about a shortage of crude supplies were groundless and there was no reason for them to push prices to current record levels. The fears are "groundless, "Ali al-Nuaimi told reporters in Riyadh ahead of an OPEC summit opening in the Saudi capital on Saturday. "The prices today have really no relation with the fundamentals," he said. "I believe OPEC in general and Saudi Arabia in particular have demonstrated their ability to respond very quickly to any disruption," Nuaimi added. If I am wrong about the current price level and fundamentals, well at least I am in good company... 12/11 GMT 11.45 White Nile WNL:LN - Sudan I wrote, *11/6 GMT 21.40 White Nile WNL:LN - Sudan Do not think White Nile is out of the running on the Block Ba license. Let the next few days run their course.... Ok it took more than a few days but..... "The Government of South Sudan, GoSS, said last Friday that it will give the UK based White Nile Plc 55% of the shares in a new government-owned oil company planned for the South, according to a recent report. Along with the shares in the state-owned firm, it seems White Nile has managed to work its way back into the South’s controversial Block B. The UK firm and Total have been in an ongoing battle over Block B since GoSS awarded a portion of it to White Nile, better known as Block Ba, prior to the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The ensuing battle over the rights to the block involved both companies, the government in Khartoum, GoSS, and the National Unity Government, as well as the National Petroleum Commission (NPC). In the end it was determined that White Nile was out of the block totally and asked to leave the country even after the British firm had already begun exploration work in one section of the concession. Now it seems that White Nile’s luck has changed as officials say the GoSS’ state-owned firm will take over Marathon Oil’s stake in the block, with White Nile having a 55% stake in the state-owned firm it will now have access to the Sudanese acreage. "This company is to take over the 22.5% of the Marathon Company," Legal Affairs Minister Michael Makuei said. "Its shares should be 55% owned by White Nile." The NPC has the final say on whether White Nile will regain a position on the block, but Makuei said its consent was a matter of formality and added that the company was the obvious partner for the government firm. Unity Vice President Riek Machar summed it up best, "It is an established company, and it is much easier given that we own half." 12/11 GMT 11.31 OPEC- Saudi Arabia - The Market Maker It only took a few words from Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi over the weekend to set the contracts back about $1.50. If for any reason the Saudis should come out and state that they will produce to full capacity the contracts would go into free-fall, yet the "market maker" has more responsibility than that... 12/11 GMT 11.23 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Q3 Report out 14/11 Again a situation where much is already known yet I expect more information on the EOR and the structural problems.. 12/11 GMT 11.20 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Q3 Report out 14/11 Much if not all of the bad news has already been transmitted to the market and thus the expectations of the report should be seen in that light. What we have to look forward to is the result from UK Block 21/8 in PL 1107, where my opinion is stated. Also more indepth information from the Luno drill will be of interest... And then ocourse there is that little bank credit of $1 billion... 11/11 GMT 22.44 The Market Investment in general will I predict see a difficult period the coming 12 to 18 months. The are lots of signs in the market that an adjustment downward is in the offering.... 11/11 GMT 22.36 Brazil - Tupi Petrobras Tupi field could have between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels of recoverable light oil.. With the Brazilian state revoking 41 licences in adjacent fields it leads one to belive the reserves could turn out to be bigger than that. Given that the reservoir is found at a total depth of 7.140 meters this is not an easy find to develop, yet Petrobras have gotten very good at working at these depths. Brazils current reserves stand at about 10.5 billion barrels yet most of this is heavier oil... 8/11 GMT 12.01 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Hmm.. *G* 7/11 GMT 21.24 Oil - WTI Monthly Average Price 2000 - 2007 09/2007 : $79.11 08/2007 : $72.40 07/2007 : $74.13 06/2007 : $67.43 05/2007 : $63.61 04/2007 : $64.21 03/2007 : $60.79 02/2007 : $59.52 01/2007 : $54.70 12/2006 : $62.22 11/2006 : $59.14 10/2006 : $59.22 09/2006 : $63.90 08/2006 : $73.09 07/2006 : $74.46 06/2006 : $71.03 05/2006 : $70.86 04/2006 : $70.11 03/2006 : $62.89 02/2006 : $62.02 01/2006 : $65.54 12/2005 : $59.45 11/2005 : $58.34 10/2005 : $62.27 09/2005 : $65.55 08/2005 : $64.99 07/2005 : $59.03 06/2005 : $56.42 05/2005 : $49.87 04/2005 : $53.22 03/2005 : $54.63 02/2005 : $48.05 01/2005 : $46.85 12/2004 : $43.26 11/2004 : $48.48 10/2004 : $53.09 09/2004 : $45.94 08/2004 : $44.88 07/2004 : $40.81 06/2004 : $38.05 05/2004 : $40.28 04/2004 : $36.62 03/2004 : $36.72 02/2004 : $34.50 01/2004 : $34.22 12/2003 : $32.14 11/2003 : $31.06 10/2003 : $30.35 09/2003 : $28.31 08/2003 : $31.60 07/2003 : $30.70 06/2003 : $30.52 05/2003 : $28.07 04/2003 : $28.14 03/2003 : $33.16 02/2003 : $35.73 01/2003 : $32.70 12/2002 : $29.39 11/2002 : $26.19 10/2002 : $28.86 09/2002 : $29.67 08/2002 : $28.20 07/2002 : $26.94 06/2002 : $25.55 05/2002 : $26.95 04/2002 : $26.26 03/2002 : $24.44 02/2002 : $20.76 01/2002 : $19.73 12/2001 : $19.40 11/2001 : $19.67 10/2001 : $22.21 09/2001 : $25.93 08/2001 : $27.31 07/2001 : $26.47 06/2001 : $27.58 05/2001 : $28.68 04/2001 : $27.65 03/2001 : $27.27 02/2001 : $29.64 01/2001 : $29.26 12/2000 : $28.40 11/2000 : $34.26 10/2000 : $32.93 09/2000 : $33.87 08/2000 : $31.14 07/2000 : $29.72 06/2000 : $31.53 05/2000 : $28.81 04/2000 : $25.54 03/2000 : $24.98 02/2000 : $23.76 01/2000 : $24.01 7/11 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 0.8 mmbls (API + 2.3 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.8 mmbls (API - 2.5 mmbls) Distillates + 0.1 mmbls (API + 0.5 mmbls) Crude Import 9.7 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.13 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.27 mmbopd Refineries 86.2% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 0.9 mmbls Perhaps not on itīs own enough for the bulls to drive oil up to $100, still a market neutral to slightly positive report. Due to the still low Refinery numbers, even if this is the season for work-overs and also there have been a few short outages. The API stats need a good look in so far as the Crude data... 7/11 GMT 04.12 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - UK Block 21/8 in PL 1107 They have something here... 7/11 GMT 03.55 Oil - $100 WTI Today will probably be the day we see the milestone, or rather the dollar adjusted level with bits ie - The Risk Premium. Storms in the North Atlantic with locked in rigs are one thing and ofcourse the US stats are the other. Yet the market has set itīs site on $100 WTI and unless we see a big surprise, today is the day.... Or at least the day next to the one. All you have to keep in mind is - where is the supply deficiency for oil....? 7/11 GMT 03.33 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude - 2.1 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 9.7 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.25 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.32 mmbopd Refineries 86.5% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.1 mmbls With the contracts close to $100 for WTI the above stats are just window dressing, yet note that Crude is again going for a decline... 7/11 GMT 00.19 OPEC - Daily Oil Production Sept Aug Oct (prel) output output output Algeria 1.38 1.38 1.357 Indonesia 0.83 0.83 0.865 Iran 3.86 3.86 3.871 Kuwait 2.41 2.41 2.531 Libya 1.7 1.7 1.712 Nigeria 2.16 2.16 2.163 Qatar 0.8 0.8 0.828 Saudi Arabia 8.7 8.65 8.943 UAE 2.56 2.56 2.567 Venezuela 2.4 2.39 2.470 OPEC-10 26.8 26.74 27.253 Iraq 2.1 1.95 2.22 Angola 1.72 1.68 1.75 TOTAL 30.62 30.37 31.233 6/11 GMT 19.18 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - $1 Billion Loan Credit That LUPE has a strong cash situation is well known. What is of interest is the timing of this loan... 6/11 GMT 16.15 Oil WTI - US Dollar - 12 Month Chart 5/11 GMT 22.05 China - Petrochina PetroChina almost tripled on its first day of trading in Shanghai, becoming the world's first company to be valued at $1 trillion, more than Exxon Mobil and General Electric combined.... PetroChina shares are in this four times more expensive than those of Exxon... Petrochina has in this one quarter of the revenue of Exxon.... There is one interesting aspect of investing in the Chinese market place that is - numbers. Chinese are for a large part numerologists and the exhanges in China will move on significant number combinations. 2/11 GMT 10.11 The Oil Price - Syria Syria raised gasoline prices on Thursday by 20%. The price of gasoline was raised to 36 Syrian Ģ or $0.74 a liter from 30 Ģ or $0.60. This price is still low compared to world prices, as the Syrian government subsidizes fuel and other vital commodities. The Syrian government expects 2008 subsidies will cost it some 350 billion Syrian Ģ or $7 billion, or about 19% of GDP.... Anyone see a problem with this picture....? The last time Syria raised gasoline prices was in Jan 2006 when they were raised by 25% to 30 Syrian Ģ or $0.60 a liter. At the time, Damascus said the measure was to counter fuel smuggling to neighboring countries where fuel prices are double.... Much like in another neighborhood country Iran where the government heavily subsidizes the price of petrol. Iranian petrol is sold at a cost of 1,000 rials or $0.11 per liter, about 20% of the real cost. At the same time Iran imports 60% of itīs gasoline... Again anyone see a problem with this picture....? 1/11 GMT 22.43 The Oil Price - China China today increased the price of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel by 500 yuan, $67 dollars per ton. This is a 10% increase for these products the reason being that Chinas refineries who are not getting paid anywhere near the global prices of Crude or product simply put things on the backburner ie slow their production which leads to actual fuel shortages reported at petrol stations throughout China. The government will also increase the price of natural gas for cars and industrial production, air passenger services, rail cargo and highway transport. 1/11 GMT 17.32 African Oil Corp - AOI:TSX - Range Resources - RRS:ASX - RRL:AIM - Somalia Puntland AOI plans 4 drills during 2008 in Puntland. A rig should be in place later this month or December and the drills will commence in Q1 2008. 1/11 GMT 10.36 The Oil Price $96 WTI is just silly. But the market ie traders have set their eyes on $100 WTI so there we will go. Yet it has nothing to do with the fundamentals, nothing. A hint ask yourself why your oil companies share price is neutral or negative.... or why does one liter or gallon of gasoline cost today pretty much as much as it did when WTI was at $70.... 31/10 GMT 23.02 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - UK Block 21/8 in PL 1107 They may have something here... 31/10 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 3.9 mmbls (API - 3.3 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.3 mmbls (API - 0.8 mmbls) Distillates + 0.8 mmbls (API + 3.1 mmbls) Crude Import 9.4 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.32 mmbopd Refineries 86.2% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 1.1 mmbls The fall in Crude is due to the again lower imports. Gasoline demand increased from the week before. A market neutral to positive report. 31/10 GMT 10.13 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Tunisia Production from the Oudna field was started in Nov 2006 at an initial rate of 20.000 bopd which pretty much was the rate of production for the first few months. As the field is fairly small with net reserves of 3.8 mmbls production was always going to drop going forward yet production levels for 2007 are set to come in at 14.000 bopd. This then better than the earlier projections. Especially as the well saw water-breakthrough after a production of 4.0 mmbls. 30/10 GMT 19.57 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude - 3.3 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 2.2 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.35 mmbopd Refineries 87.5% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.3 mmbls I expect the market to take a beating this week as a build across the board is in the offering.. The fact is that there is a lot of Crude and Products in the market, not one customer has had to wait for delivery of either. Risk and the fall of the Dollar are driving the contracts. 29/10 GMT 23.09 Syria - New Refinery Syria, Iran and Venezuela will sign next Tuesday a partnership agreement on constructing a crude oil refinery with a capacity of 140,000 barrels per day near the midland city of Homs, which will be followed by founding a joint company for carrying out studies and implementing the project, a statement from the Syrian oil ministry said on Sunday. In addition to the three countries, the Malaysian Al-Bukhari Group will participate in the construction of the refinery, the statement added. Iran's Assistant Minister of Petroleum, Venezuela's Assistant Minister of Energy and Chairman of Al-Bukhari Group arrived in Damascus on Monday to sign the agreement and visit the location of the refinery at Al-Farkalas region east of Homs, about 160 km north of the capital Damascus. 29/10 GMT 15.53 Somalia Somali Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi submitted a letter of resignation Monday, President Abdullahi Yusuf has accepted the resignation. With Gedi out the new oil-law is also out. This should lead to a better environment for AOI and RRS.. 29/10 GMT 08.42 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Cambodia Yet a new exploration site... Lupe has aquired a 34% share in Block E which is located offshore Cambodia in Khmer Basin right by the North West Coast of Cambodia and consists of approximately 5,559 square kilometers. The block contains several plays in addition to rift basin, fault traps and several structures have been identified. A 1,200 kilometer 2D seismic acquisition has recently been completed and is currently being processed and interpreted to define further exploration activities. Block E (earlier called Block VI) is in shallow water and has a "projected" production capacity of about 15 to 20.000 bopd.. * Enterprise Oil: was awarded Block I and II in 1991. The most successful test produced a maximum flow rate of 4.7 million cubic feet per day of gas and 180 barrels per day of condensate. * Premier Oil: was awarded Block IV in 1991. Hydrocarbon indications were encountered during drilling and subsequent testing produced a maximum flow rate of 1,180 barrels per day of oil and 1.3 million cubic feet of gas per day. * Campex: was awarded Block III in 1991. The most successful test produced a maximum flow rate of 244 barrels (42 API) per day of oil and 73,200 cubic feet per day of gas. 29/10 GMT 01.13 Oil Price - Oil Sector Shares The decoupling between the price of the contracts and the share prices of oil companies will only accelerate as the level of the contract price stays at todays levels. Again a Heads Up! 28/10 GMT 23.43 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Ahead of the Q3 Report, again see the larger picture... 28/10 GMT 20.09 African Oil Corp - AOI:TSX - Range Resources - RRS:ASX - RRL:AIM - Somalia Puntland Representatives from RRS and AOI met with the Puntland Prime Minister last week to discuss acceleration of the exploration programme. Drilling is therefore likely to be set for January not February. A drilling contractor will also be appointed in the next week or two. The potential in this field is in the Billion Barrel Category and with AOI holding a 80% share and RRS the other 20% itīs a matter of mathematics. Especially when the current PSA and oil price gives the partners about a $5 to $8 profit per barrel. AOI could in this possibly give up part of itīs 80% share to lessen the risk exposure to Ras Al-Khaimah ie one of the United Arab Emirates. A possibility not carved in stone but nonetheless out there... 27/10 GMT 04.00 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan A spud date is getting close. Even if I do have mounting reservations about this... 24/10 GMT 15.33 Site Updates During the period 24/10 to 27/10 the site will not be updated due to travel. 24/10 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude -5.3 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline - 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 9.1 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.8 mmbopd Distillate Imports 0.23 mmbopd Refineries 87.1% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 7.9 mmbls A very market positive report... 24/10 GMT 14.31 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Syria Negative news today concerning future production for sure... No way to disguise it! Yet I think you have to see the larger picture - again. The company for instance will see an addition to the workforce who has an interesting past.. Bad news today - Yes. But see the larger picture. 23/10 GMT 21.23 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude - 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline - 0.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.6 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Refineries 86.8% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.3 mmbls Refinery problems at Valero and in California is the spanner in the works, yet Imports are again set to save the bacon. The products could see more market bullish numbers all due to the Refinery Run problems.. 22/10 GMT 21.56 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Current Drills Norway - Block 7/7 in PL 335 - 18% Interest - Water bearing UK - Block 21/8 in PL 1107 - 40% Interest - Pending result Norway - Block 16/1-8 in PL 338 - 50% Interest - Oil find 22/10 GMT 19.20 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - PL 338 16/1-8 Luno - A Hit! The news of an oil find in Luno drove the stock price initally about 5 SEK, in a bull market this would probably have been a bit higher. The facts are though that until the final analysis is in on the commercial size the news is just that news. I am again simply confident that the find is commerical and in this worth a great deal to the Company in the revenue column. How much well that is something that needs some thought yet I would suspect somewhere between 7 to 13 SEK on the share price. The reason being that the North Sea fields are all close to infrastructure and therefore close to market both on the timeline and geographically. To get 16/1-8 producing is not a novel itīs a short story... The 7 to 13 SEK span is all dependent on the size of the, still possible reserve... To find oil at the first drill in a new field is something that you can not put a price on as far as the morale in the company is concerned.. 22/10 GMT 19.00 USA - The Fed Next weeks move by The Fed is locked in - 25 points. A slight possibilty excists that the move could be - 50 points. Yet 25 points is already in the market... 22/10 GMT 13.19 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - PL 338 16/1-8 Luno - A Hit! LUNDIN PETROLEUM MAKES OIL DISCOVERY IN NORWAY Lundin Petroleum AB (Lundin Petroleum) is pleased to announce that the drilling of the exploration well 16/1-8 on the Luno prospect in PL 338 on the Norwegian Continental Shelf in the North Sea has been concluded. The well is located 28 km east of the 15/3-1 Gudrun discovery in the central North Sea. The well has discovered light oil in a clastic Jurassic reservoir. Extensive data and samples have been collected and are now being analysed. Further information will be made available following such analysis. The well is the first Lundin Petroleum operated well in Norway and was drilled on the first operated license awarded to Lundin Petroleum. The well was drilled to a vertical depth of 2,175 meters below the sea surface. Sea depth at the location is 108 meters. Well there you have it ladies and gentlemen... 19/10 GMT 00.54 Turkey - Iraq - Whatīs it all about.. The arrest of Kurd rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan in 1999 left the Kurdistan Workers’ Party - PKK in a mess. Syria distanced itself from the rebels, seeking to make amends with Turkey, while Iraqi Kurd leader Masud Barzani also went on to cooperate with Ankara. In November 2002, Turk Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan rose to power. Putting emphasis on the common Muslim identity of Turks and Kurds alike and awarding more language rights to Kurds as part of EU minded reforms, his AK Party appeared more credible than any of its predecessors. After the Iraq invasion, everything changed. With the Baathist resistance prevailing among the Sunnis and Iran exerting influence among the Shiites, Washington has in this had to tolerate the transformation of Iraqi Kurdistan into a de facto independent state and source of separatist ambitions for Turkey’s Kurds. The US Senate resolution calling for three self governing regions – for Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds – and the impending referendum on Kirkuk, expected to give Kurdistan control of 40% of Iraqi oil, is in part the last straw for Ankara. The US is investing in Iran’s Kurds for a regime change in Tehran. With the help of Mossad the CIA is training the Kurdish separatist group PJAK which has ties to the PKK. Washington’s Kurdish card is in heavy play, as it brings Turkey closer to the “axis of evil” countries Syria and Iran. And in this further and further away from a place in the EU... A Turkish incursion into Iraq would, should and will put the EU timetable on hold in the deep freeze... 18/10 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Natural Gas + 39 Bcf which is less than most of the market expectations. 18/10 GMT 13.16 Oil Price - Oil Sector Shares The decoupling between the price of the contracts and the share prices of oil companies will only accelerate as the level of the contract price stays at todays levels. 18/10 GMT 11.45 Iraq - Kurdistan Oil An interesting piece from the Wall Street Journal, albeit a few days old. 18/10 GMT 00.42 Ericsson ERIC:SAX - An Early Global Warning A 30% drop in market value due to a Quarterly Report speaks volumes to the real extent of the problems ie they are far larger and long reaching. In all fairness I have not of late dug around in the details on this one as I stopped trading Ericsson some time ago. But the overall perspective says that something sure is rotten in Denmark sorry Sweden when a Blue Chip like Ericsson takes such a dive. Be careful out there! 17/10 GMT 22.38 OPEC - Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia is set to pump at least 8.7 mmbopd this month and raise rates to about 9.0 mmbopd in November when OPEC's supply hike takes effect. Under the production increase agreement Riyadh has a supply target of 8.943 mmbopd. Also OPEC could move itīs December meeting forward to November due to the price hike. 17/10 GMT 21.49 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - PL 338 16/1-8 Luno All things considered I am simply confident that Luno is a hit... As to how commercial, well that is another question and one that can only be answered by testing. 17/10 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 1.8 mmbls (API + 4.4 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.8 mmbls (API - 3.0 mmbls) Distillates + 1.0 mmbls (API + 1.2 mmbls) Crude Import 10.4 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Refineries 87.3% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.6 mmbls Increase across the board.. 17/10 GMT 13.09 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 1.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.1 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 1.2 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas + 45 Bcf Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.3 mmbopd Refineries 87.0% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.8 mmbls The Valero refinery cat cracker shutdown will show up in the Refinery numbers. Imports are key as Gasoline imports are expected to be up there again. Another close week to call and numbers could go both ways, yet if they come in market positive then $90 WTI is set. 17/10 GMT 12.40 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir has approved a cabinet reshuffle, one demand of former southern rebels who withdrew from a coalition government last week triggering the country's worst political crisis in years. The Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) last week froze participation of all its ministers and presidential advisors in the national government citing a stalemate on implementing key elements of a 2005 north-south peace deal. Bashir's decision to approve the cabinet reshuffle, which had been delayed for three months, followed his first meeting on Tuesday with SPLM officials since the crisis began. Despite this it is not clear whether the SPLM will rejoin the government as some reports have indicated. As SPLM officials said that the cabinet reshuffle announced by Sudanese president Omar Al-Bashir was different from what they had originally requested. The SPLM has about a quarter of the government under the 2005 peace deal which also shared oil revenues, outlined democratic transformation and enshrined elections and a southern vote on secession by 2011. While the media had focused on the reshuffle demand, SPLM Deputy Secretary General Yasir Arman had said that was not the main issue. SPLM Vice Chairman Riek Machar said on Tuesday the party wanted progress on key elements not yet implemented in the 2005 deal including demarcating the north-south border, the status of the oil rich Abyei region and redeployment of northern troops from the oil fields by Jan. 9, the agreement's third anniversary. The SPLM also filed complaints about political prisoners, constitutional violations and the NCP using their mechanical majority to push through legislation. 17/10 GMT 01.37 Turkey - Iraq - Kurdistan The PKK has no oil, Turkey has very little to no oil. Kurdistan however has a lot of oil and the main reason why this part of the world affects the price of oil is the Kirkuk - Ceyhan Oil Pipeline.. Not in much use today or for the last 4 years but it is still there with a capacity of about 1.0 mmbopd even if a true number is closer to 0.5 mmbopd. Most if not all of Iraqīs current export of oil goes through Basra in the South. Yet the Kirkuk - Ceyhan Oil Pipeline is a vital part of the future export of oil, not then so much about today. That it has an effect on the oil contracts does imply a hysterical fragility in the market place. 16/10 GMT 11.22 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - PL 338 16/1-8 Luno So as expected Hydrocarbon Shows during a still ongoing drill... Looks promising. 16/10 GMT 00.01 The Price of Oil - Strength of the US Dollar New ATHīs pretty much every day. Yet it is all about the US$.. A weaker dollar is more and more becoming a strategy. Good for the US trade balance and for the rest of the world a question of how well did you hedge your positions? Do not get carried away by the spot price of WTI or Brent as it is largely comparative to the value of the Greenback. The geopolitical risk of a Turkey/Iraq confrontation is ofcourse the prime driver in the risk category... 15/10 GMT 17.23 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - PL 338 16/1-8 Luno - Etc Fairly positive to the outcome on this one. I can in this be wrong - Tengis-1 - yet Luno lookīs fairly good from where I am sitting. RWE Dea Norge ASīs license expires during 2008... RWE are a 20% partner in PL 338. Revus Energy ASAīs license expires in December this year... Revus are a 30% partner in PL 338. Lupes license is for 15 years from December 2004. Lagansky is looking bleaker as long term weather forecasts for the Caspian region are calling for an early freeze. Also the Russian bureaucracy can literally drive you nuts... Yet. The Sudan, despite the recent problems retains a very imminent rating as to a spud date. 14/10 GMT 23.01 OPEC - Average Daily Production 1999 21.965 mmbopd 2000 25.536 mmbopd 2001 24.901 mmbopd 2002 23.394 mmbopd 2003 25.807 mmbopd 2004 27.141 mmbopd 2005 27.991 mmbopd 2006 27.637 mmbopd 2007 26.830 mmbopd (Q1) 2007 26.710 mmbopd (Q2) Production numbers ex of late Angola and since 1991 Iraq, ie OPEC 10 and not OPEC 12. 1999 22.405 mmbopd 2000 28.055 mmbopd 2001 27.187 mmbopd 2002 25.408 mmbopd 2003 27.095 mmbopd 2004 29.133 mmbopd 2005 29.826 mmbopd 2006 29.585 mmbopd 2007 30.240 mmbopd (Q1) 2007 30.316 mmbopd (Q2) Total OPEC Production 13/10 GMT 14.59 Climate Change - More Facts 12/10 GMT 00.39 Climate Change - In the Solar Community "Mars is being hit by rapid climate change and it is happening so fast that the red planet could lose its southern ice cap. Scientists from Nasa say that Mars has warmed by about 0.5C since the 1970s. This is similar to the warming experienced on Earth over approximately the same period. Since there is no known life on Mars it suggests rapid changes in planetary climates could be natural phenomena."..... 12/10 GMT 19.10 Iran - US Military Strike - Syria Syria has placed its civil defense services on a state of preparedness and mobilized reservists. Also Government and military hospitals across Syria have been alerted. Syrian defense minister Gen. Hassan Turkmani published a message on Thursday to the armed forces calling for “readiness to withstand all aggression.” Syrian president Bashar Assad in an interview published by the Tunisian daily Al-Shorouk on Thursday said "I am working on the premise that the Americans will attack Iran,” explaining that this was the answer he received when he asked the Iranians how they evaluated the situation. 12/10 GMT 12.02 The Noble Peace Prize - The Farce Well I guess if you live long enough you get to see all forms of foolishness.. That the Peace Prize is given to Gore and the IPCC for their lies and populist propaganda about man made climate change is just icing on the comedy cake... 11/10 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 1.7 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.7 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates - 0.6 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas + 73 Bcf Crude Import 9.9 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.3 mmbopd Refineries 87.8% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 0.4 mmbls Imports are in large saving the bacon. With questions about further economic growth you do have to put the stats into a certain perspective. Refiners are about to go into a work-over period with all that entails. Coupled with the value of the dollar this is a Market Positive Report. 11/10 GMT 14.24 Sudan SPLM withdraw from Sudan national unity government. In a serious setback to the Comprehensive Agreement (CPA) former southern rebels from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement on Thursday suspended their participation in the national government because of Khartoum’s failure to implement a peace deal, a spokesman said Thursday."The SPLM has recalled all ministers and presidential advisers from the government of national unity," Pagan Amum of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) told a news conference. "Presidential advisers, ministers and state ministers will not report to work until these contentious issues are resolved," he added. The SPLM issued a statement today calling on the international community to save the CPA from breaking down. The southern partner accused the NCP of failing to implement parts of the peace agreement. The statement slammed the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) for what they called a "violation" of the constitutional rights of 1st Vice President Silva Kiir. Kiir warned in recent weeks that there could be a return to war if the CPA was not implemented properly. 11/10 GMT 01.30 USA - Lebanon It now seems that the US is set to return to the Lebanon for the first time in 25 years or rather to the old airbase at Kleiat in Northern Lebanon about 180 km from Damascus. US Air Force engineers and technicians have begun work on the air field. At a later stage, it will be expanded for American military use.... The airbase is only 4 km away from the border with Syria. 10/10 GMT 13.19 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Credit Suisse has upgraded Tanganyika and Dana Petroleum to ’outperform’ from ’neutral’, according to traders. In a note published this morning, Credit Suisse said that following the 20% increase in its oil price forecast to $60, it was upgrading both Dana Petroleum and Tanganyika. Also it noted that it seeīs several potential buyers of TYK. 9/10 GMT 00.14 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out GMT 15.30 on 11/10 I expect, Crude + 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 2.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas + 73 BcF Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Refineries 87.8% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 3.5 mmbls Refinery output is way down which means a build for Crude, yet I also see a build for the products. 9/10 GMT 01.47 Iraq - Kurdistan A tip, look this way! The oil majors are losing the plot and there are lots of minor oilers out there who are just swimming in... DNO I have touched on earlier, Hunt, Addax, Perenco, Heritage.. - the list gets longer and longer.... 9/10 GMT 01.31 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Credit Suisse Credit Suisse has set a target for this stock of 91.25 SEK. Initially it was 91.50 SEK but due to the dry hole in PL 335 they lowered their expectations by 0.25 SEK. I find it very cute that a bank has itīs finger on the pulse so much that it reacts to a drilling result so quickly. Or rather I find it interesting that they are spending so much time on the same. Raison d'ętre - To have coverage of this stock is going to be worth the while... 9/10 GMT 01.25 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway The drill in Block 7/7 in PL 335 with a Lupe 18% Interest showed only water at the target depth of 3.000 meters in the Paleocene Forties unit.. Forties reservoir sands were however encountered. This was the first test drill in PL 335 and should be viewed from that perspective. In this it may be of interest to note that before a commercial well was found in 1969 in the North Sea about 115 test drills had been carried out, so even in this as we now know very prolific oil producing region it took some time to get it right. Comparitive numbers for the Sudan, a possible new - North Sea field is that it took 78 test drills before commercial amounts of oil where found. 5/10 GMT 11.24 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Goes more Africa Along side with Africa Oil Corp another Lundin company it is increasingly Africa that is the target for the group. With a fully diluted share/interest in the Kenya concession Anza Basin Block 10A of 87% Lundin takes another step into the most promising oil continent today. Please note the Anza Basinīs relation to the Muglad Basin in The Sudan..... To date, Congo - Congo Marine XI Block - 18.75% interest Ethiopia - Ogaden Basin and Adigala Area - 100% interest Kenya - Anza Basin - 100%/87% interest Sudan - Block 5B - 24.5% interest Tunisia - Oudna - 40% interest - Birsa - 40% interest - Zelfa - 43.75% interest 4/10 GMT 19.28 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan I have for a long time been somewhat sceptical to the continued Sudan venture, based on the fact that the country does have itīs major share of problems and that Lundin is a minority holder. Yet and here again it is with some healthy reservation that I now see an imminent spud date. Very imminent... 3/10 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 1.2 mmbls (API - 2.7 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.1 mmbls (API + 2.1 mmbls) Distillates - 1.2 mmbls (API - 2.7 mmbls) Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.15 mmbopd Refineries 87.5% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.9 mmbls 2/10 GMT 19.24 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude - 0.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.3 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd Refineries 87.0% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 4.0 mmbls Again a tricky week to call, yet look for again a build in the Total Petroleum Inventories.. 2/10 GMT 18.15 Falkland Oil & Gas FOGL:LSE A long, long time holding that has been somewhat forgotten on the site... Falkland Oil and Gas Limited has entered into a farm-out agreement with a subsidiary of BHP Billiton, the world’s largest diversified resources company, over FOGL’s 2002 and 2004 licences to the South and East of the Falkland Islands. Highlights: - Under the agreement a minimum of two exploration wells will be drilled in the next 3 years - The farm-out agreement applies to FOGL’s entire exploration acreage in the Falklands - BHP Billiton will acquire a 40% interest, with an option to increase its interest up to 65%, and will take over the operatorship of the licences - FOGL retains a substantial stake in the licences - BHP Billiton pays FOGL US$10 million in reimbursement of certain historical costs - New licence terms have been agreed with the Falkland Islands Government - The entry of BHP Billiton, a company with extensive deepwater exploration experience, into our licences confirms our view of the significant petroleum potential of the South and East Falkland Basins. There is oil off the coast of Falklands and the drills in the 90īs did have oil at the surface, no matter what else is said..... 1/10 GMT 18.07 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan Because Lundin is a minority holder of the license it has to play according to the rules of the majority holders and also ofcourse to the criteria on the ground, yet in this a spud date is set for Q4 this year and as far as I can see and information given from the company this will happen. 1/10 GMT 01.21 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan Rumors that the USA has lifted sanctions against Southern Sudan are as far as I can see - just that rumors. Yet give the Secretary General Pagan Amum of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement - SPLM, a thought for trying.... 29/9 GMT 14.07 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan Interesting map...... Yet not news.. The status of Block 16 is as far as I recall still pending as the Sudan and Egypt have a few things to work out first, like where the border is... 28/9 GMT 15.54 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Current Drills Norway - Block 7/7 in PL 335 - 18% Interest UK - Block 21/8 in PL 1107 - 40% Interest Norway - Block 16/1-8 in PL 338 - 50% Interest Tengis 1 did show promise but then there you are.. 28/9 GMT 09.41 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Indonesia - Tengis 1 Hydrocarbons on several levels but the primary target had no shows of hydrocarbons due the low permeability of the reservoir. The data from this drill will however be valuable going forward. In this I would again like to point out that hydrocarbons where indicated during the drill itīs just that the end result is what it is. 27/9 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Natural gas + 74 Bcf.. 26/9 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 1.8 mmbls (API + 0.9 mmbls) Gasoline + 0.6 mmbls (API + 1.0 mmbls) Distillates + 1.6 mmbls (API - 0.14 mmbls) Crude Import 10.4 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd Refineries 86.9% Gasoline Demand 9.4 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 4.2 mmbls A rise across the board. Market negative report. 25/9 GMT 00.21 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude - 1.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline - 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 2.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 9.9 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd Refineries 89.9% Gasoline Demand 9.5 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.8 mmbls 24/9 GMT 21.25 Range Resources - RRS:ASX Nice uptick on Monday... *g* RRS 68.5 +16.5 +31.7%.. Had a high of 71 cents on 1.8 million traded.. 24/9 GMT 03.05 African Oil Corp - AOI:TSX Range Resources big brother when it comes to Somalia and Puntland. I see further expansion as a must for this company and then in Africa. The Company holds an 80% interest in two licenses encompassing the highly prospective Dharoor and Nogal Valleys in the state of Puntland in northern Somalia. Both blocks are considered world-class exploration plays with petroleum systems geologically similar to and formerly contiguous with those in the prolific oil producing Republic of Yemen. Combined, the two blocks cover a very large area, with the Nogal Valley Block extending over approximately 12,849,479 acres, which encompasses the Nogal Basin. The Dharoor Valley Block extends over an area of 7,166,056 acres, encompassing the entire Darin Basin. This large area, with only 5 wells drilled historically, remains one of the least explored regions in North Africa. A comprehensive exploration work program is underway on the Nogal Valley Block, including geological fieldwork, reprocessing of prior 2D seismic, acquisition of surface high resolution geochemical surveys and review and integration of all geophysical and geological data. A drilling rig will be mobilized to site with the anticipation of spudding the first well in early 2008. 24/9 GMT 00.46 Range Resources - RRS:ASX - AIM Listing Range has sought a listing on Londons AIM Market. This will make it very much easier for European investors to access this stock. 22/9 GMT 16.04 Range Resources - RRS:ASX Intersuisse's Morning Note that recommends Range Resources Limited as a Speculative Buy... 21/9 GMT 15.22 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Indonesia - Tengis 1 I now have a "more than fairly" good feeling about this one... This then different from an earlier "fairly" good feeling. 21/9 GMT 03.05 Iraq - Western Desert I have pointed to this region many times before and will again and again because the Iraqi Western Desert... Is what one international oil consultant calls the "Holy Grail" of the oil industry. Iraqi oil is miraculously cheap to pump out of the ground, costing about a $1 per barrel. The Western Desert offers in this untold riches. Petrel Resources reached an agreement under Saddamīs era to explore a chunk of the Western Desert known as Block 6. Especially tempting for companies today are nine exploration blocks in Iraq's Western Desert, a largely unexplored stretch of land along the border with Saudi Arabia, Syria and Jordan. Many analysts believe Iraq's reserves already considered the world's second largest behind Saudi Arabia's may grow significantly once the area is thoroughly explored. Several foreign companies, including Russian Tatneft, India's state owned Oil & Natural Gas Corp and Indonesia state oil company PT Pertamina negotiated tentative pre war deals to explore some of the region. 21/9 GMT 02.18 Syria - Loon Energy Inc - LEY:TSX This one has been brewing for more than a year but it has finally come to pass.. Syria has signed a 20 year oil exploration contract worth US$17 million with Canada's Loon Energy Inc in the country's Central West region. According to the contract, Loon Energy will have the right to explore and exploit any oil in the 10,000 square kilometre block 9 area. The Syrian government will receive 12.5% of the oil produced while the rest will be split between the state owned Syrian Oil Co. and the Canadian company at a 71% - 29% or 80% - 20% ratio, depending on the production amount. Loon Energy will also spend $1 million to train Syrian employees of the state oil company, according to the agreement. Loon has a 100% interest in block 9. Block 9 is a large and underexplored area located at the Northern edge of a hydrocarbon producing basin called the Homs basin which contains the large Palmyra, Cherrife Da and Ash Shaer fields. Despite its proximity to substantial oil and gas reserves, block 9 contains only two exploration wells, one drilled in 1977 and the other in 1995. 20/9 GMT 23.39 Range Resources - RRS:ASX I said I will stick with it and that I will. The stock is coming down towards itīs lowest levels, after having seen a stellar performance from April/May to the end of July. The company is in a difficult region with a difficult mandate yet thatīs the risk and reward of this type of Upstreamer. Africa is more and more becoming the oil continent of the future and Puntland with itīs geological history with Yemen is - Hot. The fighting however is a tragedy and a threat yet these things are fluid and having had long experience with companies in the same situation I can only say - stick with it... 20/9 GMT 17.22 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky - E.Mor-4 In lieu of a spud date for Lagansky it may be of interest if I repost, well an earlier post.... *g* The E.Mor-4 test well was drilled in the early 1980's and tested 445 boepd. Much earlier in the 1960īs a well was drilled, close to what became the E.Mor-4 site it was however not tested but proved oil finds in the Jurassic sands strata. Both wells were drilled approx 8 km west of the structure culmination. So we have two test drills and oil shows in both.... In this it could be of interest to also repost the Degolyer & MacNaughton study from 31 Dec, 2005... The assumations on the potential of this field are well worth the read.. 20/9 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Natural Gas + 63 BcF. 20/9 GMT 01.30 Sudan - New Oil Block The South Sudan Government plans to offer a new oil concession, to be called Block E, that will be formally delineated by a North-South oil commission. The South's Industry, Energy and Mining Minister Albino Akol Akol indicates that several oil companies are interested in the concession but the National Petroleum Commission (NPC) will have to approve the block first.. The block is designated the name Ea and it is adjacent to blocks 4, 5a, 5b and 6. The map is older but still accurate as to the boundaries. Interesting is the area between Ea and 4 and 6... As yet not determined as to itīs concession status. 20/9 GMT 00.01 World Proven Oil Reserves Please note the discrepancy in the data! Canada... Yet despite or rather because of this margin of error the Reserves are expanding, note also that these are only the Proven Reserves... 19/9 GMT 23.59 World Proven Oil Reserves by Country - 2006
RankCountryProven Reserves
(billion barrels)
1. Saudi Arabia264.3
2.Canada178.8
3.Iran132.5
4.Iraq115.0
5.Kuwait101.5
6.United Arab Emirates97.8
7.Venezuela79.7
8.Russia60.0
9.Libya39.1
10.Nigeria35.9
11. United States 21.4
12. China 18.3
13. Qatar 15.2
14. Mexico 12.9
15. Algeria 11.4
16. Brazil 11.2
17. Kazakhstan 9.0
18. Norway 7.7
19. Azerbaijan 7.7
20. India 5.8
     
Top 20 countries 1224.5 (95%)
Rest of world 68.1 (5%)
World total 1,292.6
19/9 GMT 23.21 World Proven Gas & Oil Reserves North America 1984 10.51 Tcm 101.1 bbls South and Latin America 1984 3.23 Tcm 36.3 bbls Europe and Eurasia 1984 42.02 Tcm 96.7 bbls Middle East 1984 27.40 Tcm 430.8 bbls Africa 1984 6.22 Tcm 57.8 bbls Asia Pacific 1984 7.02 Tcm 38.1 bbls World Total 1984 93.89 Tcm 761.6 bbls North America 1994 8.42 Tcm 89.9 bbls South and Latin America 1994 5.83 Tcm 81.5 bbls Europe and Eurasia 1994 63.87 Tcm 80.3 bbls Middle East 1994 45.56 Tcm 661.7 bbls Africa 1994 9.31 Tcm 65.0 bbls Asia Pacific 1994 10.07 Tcm 39.2 bbls World Total 1994 142.89 Tcm 1017.5 bbls North America 2004 7.32 Tcm 61.0 bbls South and Latin America 2004 7.19 Tcm 101.2 bbls Europe and Eurasia 2004 64.02 Tcm 139.2 bbls Middle East 2004 72.83 Tcm 733.9 bbls Africa 2004 14.06 Tcm 112.2 bbls Asia Pacific 2004 14.21 Tcm 41.1 bbls World Total 2004 179.53 Tcm 1188.6 bbls North America 2005 7.46 Tcm 59.5 bbls South and Latin America 2005 7.02 Tcm 103.5 bbls Europe and Eurasia 2005 64.01 Tcm 140.5 bbls Middle East 2005 72.13 Tcm 742.7 bbls Africa 2005 14.39 Tcm 114.3 bbls Asia Pacific 2005 14.84 Tcm 40.2 bbls World Total 2005 179.83 Tcm 1200.7 bbls North America 2006 7.98 Tcm 59.9 bbls South and Latin America 2006 6.88 Tcm 103.5 bbls Europe and Eurasia 2006 64.13 Tcm 144.4 bbls Middle East 2006 73.47 Tcm 742.7 bbls Africa 2006 14.18 Tcm 117.2 bbls Asia Pacific 2006 14.82 Tcm 40.5 bbls World Total 2006 181.46 Tcm 1371.7 bbls 19/9 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 3.8 mmbls (API - 1.6 mmbls) Gasoline + 0.4 mmbls (API - 2.1 mmbls) Distillates + 1.5 mmbls (API + 0.25 mmbls) Crude Import 9.8 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd Refineries 89.6% Gasoline Demand 9.5 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 2.8 mmbls Fourth week in a row for Crude to drop. Refiners are in transition and dropped more than expected. A fairly neutral to positive market report. 19/9 GMT 00.15 Australia - Special Air Service Regiment The Special Air Service Regiment marks its 50th anniversary this week. 18/9 GMT 21.46 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude - 3.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.5 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 2.8 mmbls (API na mmbls) Natural Gas + 76 Bcf Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd Refineries 90.8% Gasoline Demand 9.5 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.5 mmbls 18/9 GMT 20.10 England - Bank Crisis - Northern Rock With the UK Governments decision to pledge to underwrite customer deposits at Northern Rock the Crisis is averted. Northern Rock will be bought and itīs brand name will be gone within six months I venture to guess. 18/9 GMT 19.13 US - The Fed The first rate reduction in four years and a 50 point drop in both the Funds and Discount Rates is one for the books... A Reserve Bank that again shows it knows what itīs doing.... 18/9 GMT 14.34 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky *29/8 GMT 22.16 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky "I gage the chance of an autumn drill at about 65%.." That number has today increased to 85% with a spud date in October. 18/9 GMT 02.43 Israel - Air Strike in Syria - Nuclear Facility? So do I belive it..? No! Do I belive it was a very strong signal to Syria and Iran - Yes. Syrian President Bashar Assad is not a lone dictator and has to deal with many factions within his country. Do I belive that Syria and Israel are on a course of some accord - Yes. Clearly they are and with Iran firmly in sights of the US and allies well Assad is no fool. The world is more and more losings itīs patience with Iran. 18/9 GMT 01.16 Israel - Air Strike in Syria - Nuclear Facility? There are media reports in the Middle East that Israeli war planes on the 6th of September bombed Nuclear Facilities inside Syria. A time line for the event, Syria said its air defences reportedly opened fire on Israeli warplanes flying over the northeast of the country in the early hours of Thursday 06 September 2007. Very few facts are known about the alleged incident. Local residents were reported to have claimed to have heard the sound of five or more planes above the Tal al-Abiad area on Syria's border with Turkey, around 160 km (100 miles) north of the Syrian city of Rakka. One Syrian official was quoted by Reuters on 07 September 2007 as saying: "They dropped bombs on an empty area while our air defenses were firing heavily at them." The Syrian official news agency SANA stated that Israeli aircraft had "infiltrated Syrian airspace through the northern border coming from the direction of the Mediterranean and headed towards northeastern territory, breaking the sound barrier. ... The Syrian Arab Republic warns the government of the Israeli enemy and reserves the right to respond according to what it sees fit..." Syria warned that it was weighing its response to the Israeli "aggression". Syrian Information Minister Mohsen Bilal told Al-Jazeera television that his country was "giving serious consideration to its response... to this aggression ... This shows that Israel cannot give up aggression and treachery". On 08 September 2007 Turkey asked Israel for clarification after finding two fuel tanks on its territory near the Syrian border allegedly belonging to Israeli warplanes. The jettisoned fuel tanks were discovered late on Thursday 06 September 2007 in the Turkish provinces of Hatay and Gaziantep, near the Syrian border. This came a few hours after Damascus had accused Israel of bombing its territory. The Israeli government and military initially remained silent about the incident. The Israeli military spokesman's office said in a statement: "It is not our custom to respond to these kinds of reports." But the office typically has commented on such reports. In October 2003 Israeli warplanes bombed an empty Palestinian militant training camp in Syria. And in June 2006, Israeli warplanes flew over a palace in northern Syria while President Bashar al-Assad was inside, in what Damascus condemned as an "act of piracy". These operations were confirmed by the Israeli military. It appeared the government imposed a news blackout on the issue. A spokeswoman for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert stated that there would be no comment beyond the military statement. Analysts were initially divided over whether the [unconfirmed] flight was a tactic of intimidation, or a reconnaissance mission of some sort, or operation intending to test Syrian air defense systems. Other hypotheses have posited that Israel was on an intelligence-gathering mission, scouting an air corridor for a future strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. On 10 September 2007 a [background source] started pitching a story that the air strike had destroyed a uranium pilot enrichment plant that Syria had obtained from North Korea. As far as can be detected, this story did not have legs at that time and no news organization moved it. On 11 September 2007 a US government official confirmed [on background] that Israeli warplanes were targeting weapons from Iran and destined for Hizballah militants in Lebanon. On 12 September 2007 Mark Mazzetti and Helene Cooper in The New York Times reported that "Officials in Washington said that the most likely targets of the raid were weapons caches that Israel’s government believes Iran has been sending the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah through Syria. Iran and Syria are Hezbollah’s primary benefactors, and American intelligence officials say a steady flow of munitions from Iran runs through Syria and into Lebanon." On 13 September 2007 Glenn Kessler reported in the Washington Post that " ... a former Israeli official said he had been told that it was an attack against a facility capable of making unconventional weapons." On 15 September 2007 Glenn Kessler reported in the Washington Post that American sources said that Israel had recently provided the US with evidence -- code named "Orchard" -- that the DPRK had been cooperating with Syria on a nuclear facility. According to one source for this report, the 06 September 2007 air strike appeared to have been linked to the arrival at the Syrian port of Tartus on 03 September 2007 [three days prior to the strike], of a ship carrying material ["labeled as cement"] from North Korea. According to this source, the target of the attack was a Syrian facility "agricultural research center" near the Turkish border. Israel had reportedly been monitoring the facility in the belief that Syria was extracting uranium from phosphates at that location. On 16 September 2007 the UK newspaper The Observer reported that Israel's strike against Syria involved as many as eight aircraft, including F-15s and F-16s equipped with Maverick missiles and 500 pound bombs, along with an electronic intelligence gathering aircraft. On 16 September 2007 the Sunday Times reported that an IAF commando team arrived on the ground several days before the attack to direct laser beams at the target for the jets. On 16 September 2007 the Sunday Times quoted an Israeli source as saying that Syria had been planning a "devastating surprise" for Israel, in the wake of reports that the Israel Air Force carried out an air strike against a North Korean nuclear shipment to Syria. The paper reported that Israeli sources said planning for the strike began in late spring 2007 when Mossad director Meir Dagan presented Prime Minister Ehud Olmert with evidence that Syria was seeking to buy a nuclear weapon from North Korea. On 16 September 2007 former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton said "it will be very unusual for Israel to conduct such a military operation inside Syria other (than) for a very high value target and certainly a Syrian effort in nuclear weapon area will qualify. ... I think this is a clear message not only to Syria, this is a clear message to Iran as well that its continued efforts to acquire nuclear weapons are not going to go unanswered..." On 16 September 2007 it was reported by AFP that military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin told parliament's Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee that Israel had recovered its "deterrent capability" after the air strike in Syria. "The new situation affects the entire region, including Iran and Syria," local media reported. But Tzachi Hanegbi, chairman of the parliamentary committee, told reporters he instructed the military intelligence chief to avoid any mention of Syria at a committee meeting. And Yadlin's statement to the meeting, "Israel's deterrence has been rehabilitated since the Lebanon war, and it affects the entire regional system, including Iran and Syria ..." seems to have far more to do with an assessment of the July 2006 Op Change of Direction than it did to striking purported Syrian nuclear capabilities. 17/9 GMT 17.50 England - Bank Crisis - Alliance & Leicester Alliance & Leicester Bank dropped 32% in Mondays trade in London. I would suspect that there probably will be a few people queing to get in the doors on Tuesday. The run on Northern Rock continues. UK bank guarantees on savings gives full compensation up to Ģ35.000 if the bank goes under, after that it comes to 90% of the amount in the account. As Dr Greenspan has indicated the UK housing sector and credit situation is more precarious than even the USīs. Learn from what happened in the 1970īs.... 17/9 GMT 13.32 Iran - US Military Strike In a series of press, radio and TV interviews, Sunday, Sept 16, The French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner said he had advised large French companies not to respond to tenders issued by Tehran. France thus joined the ī economic sanctions imposed by the US, Britain, Japan and Germany on Iran for refusing to give up uranium enrichment, but implicit in Kouchner’s advice was a word of caution to French companies to stay clear of business complications with a nation on the brink of war. A military solution to the Iran problem is only gaining strength, case in point well if the French are aboard then you know things are getting serious. 17/9 GMT 03.31 Oil Search Ltd - ASX:OSH An article in the South China Morning Post has set fire under this stock today. The thinking is that Chinas CNPC is set for a take over bid... 15/9 GMT 03.03 England - Bank Crisis - Northern Rock Perhaps just a storm in a tea cup, yet! "Customers of Northern Rock are being urged not to panic after it emerged the lender had agreed emergency funding from the Bank of England. The Newcastle-based group's chief executive Adam Applegarth stressed that the Bank's support "reflected a recognition that Northern Rock is solvent". Commentators stressed that savers should not panic and move their money elsewhere because of developments. They also said the situation reflected a general lack of confidence in the financial markets because of the current global credit crisis, rather than any underlying business problems at Northern Rock. Ray Boulger, of independent mortgage experts John Charcol, said: "I certainly don't think there is any need for consumers to panic. The Bank of England has made it absolutely clear they will provide whatever funding Northern Rock needs to continue in business." Well thatīs all fine and well - but the thing is that once the population at large lose confidence in the banking or financial sector words are just that - Words. A Heads Up! 14/9 GMT 11.46 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Itīs all out there defined by several players like Öhman, Kaupthing and UBS also various media proponents. Now itīs all up to You. What do you belive!? Good Luck! *G* 14/9 GMT 07.27 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Kaupthing have set a target price for TYK of 210 SEK, please see the analysis.. 13/9 GMT 22.40 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - The Financial Post Post says Tanganyika denies $28 offer from CNPC 2007-09-13 08:54 ET - In the News The Financial Post reports in its Thursday edition that Tanganyika Oil has denied a Swedish newspaper report that said the company is going to be taken out by Chinese National Petroleum Corp. for $1.61-billion, or $28.04 per share. The Post's David Pett, writing in Trading Desk, says UBS analyst Memet Kont told clients "where there's smoke, there may be fire," suggesting the rumour could prove true very shortly. "We would not be surprised if a formal offer surfaced in the coming weeks," he said in a research note. "A number of factors lend support to the validity of the article given that CNPC is on the hunt for reserves (Tanganyika has gross 2P reserves of 768 million barrels) and CNPC is capable of absorbing the risk associated with politically unstable regions." The analyst added that development of Tanganyika's reserve base in Syria requires significant capital that CNPC can finance with internal cash flow. Mr.Kont also believes Tanganyika's assets could be worth more under CNPC control, thus justifying the 77-per-cent premium attached to the rumoured deal. He maintained his "buy" rating on the Calgary junior and left his $30 price target unchanged. 13/9 GMT 19.38 Climate Change A repost concerning Climate Change as a soley man-made event. The hysteria surrounding this theme has of late reached fever pitch and politicians and scientists with grants from the "hysteria lobby" are falling over themselfs trying to do more to save the planet. Hence a few sober facts... One fact for instance is that only about 0.04% of the Earth's atmosphere is Carbon Dioxide CO2. Nitrogen 79%, Oxygen 20% and Argon 0.93% make up much of the rest... 13/9 GMT 19.35 Oil - The Oil Reserve Fallacy The Association for the Study of Peak Oil led by Dr. Colin Campbell makes an analogy this way: "Understanding oil depletion is simple. Think of an Irish pub. The glass starts full and ends empty. There are only so many more drinks to closing time. It's the same with oil. We have to find the bar before we can drink what's in it." My comment: Think of a street full of Irish pubs where the price keeps going up because the proprieters claim to be running out of beer. You can see for yourself, they say, the shelf is almost empty. The Ministry for Pubs says its worried and gives the pubs a depletion allowance and other tax breaks. Invasions of other nations with beer making capability are seen as necessary, but politicians promise they will eventually ease our dependence on beer and promote cola drinks just as soon as the beer runs out. What you don't know is that there is a huge stockpile of beer barrels in the warehouse across town.- Bill Kovarik Two pages of thought well worth the read.. 13/9 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Natural Gas + 64 Bcf which is at the top of the expectations curve. 13/9 GMT 15.17 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Strong Buy Given all the parameters I can only give this stock a designation of - Strong Buy. In this consideration has been given to the current speculations concerning a sale of the Syrian Operation which as I have stated earlier are not without merit, far from it. A 50% premium on the current stock price would ofcourse be a very good deal for current shareholders even if it would entail missing the possibility of a far higher valuation after the EOR and reserve projections start to show the real forward looking valuation. On the whole if the numbers discussed in the article in the Swedish Financial Daily - Dagens Industri are to be belived as I am now 100% sure they are. Well then this stock has a floor valuation close to my own year end target of 180 SEK. In light of this and other factors this stock is given a - Strong Buy! 12/9 GMT 19.59 Range Resources - RRS:ASX Despite the setbacks or apparent setbacks I am going to stick with this one... 12/9 GMT 19.33 Oil WTI - ATH So WTI Crude hits $80, a milestone. Despite OPECīs adjustment and a more than possible downturn in the US economy Crude goes through the roof. Strong sentiment but I am not so totally sure about the fundamentals but in this kind of market exuberance is to be expected. 12/9 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 7.1 mmbls (API - 5.2 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.7 mmbls (API + 3.3 mmbls) Distillates + 1.8 mmbls (API + 5.7 mmbls) Crude Import 9.6 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd Refineries 90.5% Gasoline Demand 9.6 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 3.4 mmbls Crude dropped for a third week, down 7.1 mmbls to 322.6 mmbls. Supplies have now dropped 14.5 mmbls from the mid-August level, though they're still up about 1.4% from a year ago. That Crude dropped so much despite low Refinery Runs is a "heads up".. Especially as the API & DOE numbers align. That API shows larger builds in the products is something to keep in mind as the Organisations get their numbers from slightly different parts of the market. 12/9 GMT 01.29 Iran - US Military Strike The probability of a US strike on Iran is today still gaged to be about 75%. In this it should be noted that the US Fifth Fleet will again from the end of September have three Carrier Strike Groups in the Arabian Sea. Since July the USS Enterprise has been a lone battle group but later this month it will be joined by the USS Nimitz and the USS Truman Strike Groups. Which effectivly puts about 22.000 sailors, air crew, marines and not forgetting about 270 hundred aircraft, fixed wing and helicopters aboard three of the USīs most potent Strike Groups just off the coast of Iran... 12/9 GMT 00.44 OPEC - Quotas - UAE OPEC is said to increase production in November by 0.5 mmbopd. Well thats November and in the same month the UAE is set to carry out major maintenace at three of its largest oil fields which will entail a shut-down of about 0.8 mmbopd of production. Maintenance is set to take place for two to three weeks on the Lower Zakum, Upper Zakum and Umm Shaif fields from the end of October. The maintenance will hit production as demand from consumer countries for oil rises ahead of the Northern Hemisphere Winter. The UAE's crude is a favored feedstock for Japanese refiners making heating fuels. 12/9 GMT 00.38 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude - 3.0 mmbls Gasoline - 1.9 mmbls Distillates + 2.8 mmbls Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.3 mmbopd Refineries 92.3% Gasoline Demand 9.6 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 4.6 mmbls The tricky weeks are ahead ie where the complex moves into winter mode. 11/9 GMT 14.07 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Syria - Updated It may be apt to clarify my view of the situation. That TYK would sell itīs assets in Syria for about 180 SEK per share is as I see it totally out of the question, simply because the value of the same asset far exceeds that amount, even today. Add to this the potential that is still to be "factored in" and an "outright sale" today is a no go. However as stated before the thoughts concerning a "Syrian Affair" are not inherently wrong... Just perhaps premature and focused on the less attractive deal, today.. The Lundin philosophy, which they do not hold alone by the way, that - Everything is for sale at the right price. Is in this a further guide. Syria is worth a lot more than 180 SEK per share with 58.934.946 shares outstanding fully diluted. The sale of the Egyptian assets was long overdue yet now it is done and as with this familys group of companies one thing usually leads to another along a carefully planned path. Watch this space... 11/9 GMT 12.19 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Syria Interesting days indeed... I stated earlier that my target for this stock is 180 SEK by January. Given the developments over the last 24 hours I will have to move forward that target to sometime later this year. The thoughts concerning a Syrian Affair are not inherently wrong... 11/9 GMT 00.24 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Interesting days ahead... 30/8 GMT 01.11 Canmex Minerals Corporation - CXM.V now African Oil Corp - AOI.V Should give a very good indication as to where oil is going to be pursued... Fully diluted this born again puppy has 18.074.912 shares outstanding.. A Lundin strategy.. 29/8 GMT 22.16 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky I gage the chance of a autumn drill at about 65%.. 29/8 GMT 21.34 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX OK it has pulled back from 150 SEK, yet most oilers have seen the same kind of turmoil. Such is the market. TYK has been a very tradable stock during the Northern Summer period. It is now again time to start buying this one net for the longer play... A January target would be a 180 SEK plus. This just based on the fundamentals for the company. 23/8 GMT 20.12 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Indonesia - Tengis 1 I "still" have a fairly good feeling about this one... 23/8 GMT 12.23 Site Updates... Due to travel, again the site has seen few updates. Normal frequency of postings will be up and running soon. Thank you for visiting the site! Greywolf 8/8 GMT 00.43 Syria - Turkey - Oil... The Turkish Petroleum Corporation's (TPAO) Batman district office found oil in 21 out of 25 wells. These wells are situated on the border with Syria and were found during mine sweeping. Every day sees the extraction of 2,400 barrels of oil. Syria responded to this situation by opening new wells opposite each and every well and started drilling for oil. TPAO authorities emphasized that Syria extracted 500,000 barrels of oil in the region within its own territory. General director of Batman district office, Bayram Kara, declared that they planned to open 10 more wells in the region. “We sometimes manage to drill 50 barrels of oil merely from the wells dug near the gardens of police stations with the strong backing of our security guards. We aim to expand the number of wells in the region through the initiative of sweeping mines,” he said. .... 7/8 GMT 21.47 Investing in the Oil Patch Well it ainīt for the weak! Trials and tribulations are set upon us as the price of Crude is heading South, relative to the US Dollar do not forget... Peak Oil is a long way off, as I have stated before but that is a posting of itīs own. The trick to beating the curve and making money in this kind of falling market is to disconnect the Internet and the TV and just feel the market. How much is different today from 14, 24, 44 etc days ago? The world is hooked on oil and until a new drug is found then oil for all itīs faults is the one that will do the trick. There is in this a fundamental change in the structure as the major oil companies who have seen sweet days of late earn most of their profits from refining and those margins are for the short term seeing problems. Also it gets harder and harder for a major like BP, Shell, Conoco etc to show production increases at the tune that the market expects. In through the backdoor come the - Explorers! The fringe companies that operate in countrys and regions that just are not "good politics" for the majors to get involved with... See the picture? 7/8 GMT 21.47 Eastern Gas Limited - ASX:ESG I wrote, 13/5 GMT 22.17 Eastern Gas Limited - ASX:ESG Just another Heads Up.. It did rather well since then.. A pull-back later yet I have a feeling this one is set to go further... 7/8 GMT 21.35 Canmex Minerals Corporation - CXM.V After having hung around the $5 mark for a long time, well the Northen Summer has been good to this one... Told you! 7/8 GMT 18.35 Oil - EIA - Short Term Energy Outlook 7/8 GMT 18.31 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude - 0.5 mmbls Gasoline + 1.3 mmbls Distillates + 1.2 mmbls Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.3 mmbopd Refineries 94.% Gasoline Demand 9.7 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.6 mmbls No hurricans - yet. Also we are getting to the latter part of the driving season so itīs the Gasoline/Distillate balance with Gasoline not helping at all. RBOB has been weak and Monday was no picnic. Natural Gas is the interesting one as the warm weather has made folk turn on their cooling systems... 7/8 GMT 18.05 Range Resources - RRS:ASX I think we are ready for the second stage... 7/8 GMT 18.02 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Q2 Report a Comment.. "Do not be fooled by the current pull-back in the stock!" I wrote, and as we are coming up on the Q2 Report out 14/8 keep this in mind. The production numbers are already known as per the 27/7 what is of interest is the solution to the infrastructural problems the company has seen of late. I am there optimistic and the company is actually building its oil reserves at a comfortable pace. A tip - look at who is net-buying this stock... 18/7 GMT 15.31 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Petrofalcon 18/7 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 0.5 mmbls (API - 3.7 mmbls) Gasoline - 2.3 mmbls (API + 0.9 mmbls) Distillates - 0.2 mmbls (API + 0.3 mmbls) Crude Import 10.4 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd Refineries 91.% Gasoline Demand 9.6 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.3 mmbls A fairly market positive report. Refiners are still about 4% below normal summer levels and the drop in Gasoline supply is due to lower imports and lower refinery numbers for just Gasoline. 18/7 GMT 00.11 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Do not be fooled by the current pull-back in the stock! 17/7 GMT 23.46 Iran - An Oil Producer with a heavy Import Dependency I hark back to an earlier posting, 29/3 GMT 02.08 Iran - An Oil Producer with a heavy Import Dependency If you have read this site for a while this is not news but just a revision.. Iran exports about 2 mmbopd and in this not one drop to the US. Irans economy has been run into the ground by itīs regimes and long standing sanctions, which are set to get worse quickly. Irans oil industry is a mess and a country with the second or third largest oil reserve on the planet has to import about 40% of itīs Gasoline demand. A product that also is heavily subsidized simply becuase the economy is - a mess. The best way to disguise this is by making everybody feel happy that at least Gasoline is cheap. The problem is that this is costing Iran billions... Iran has now decided to cut itīs imports of Gasoline, which by the way today are as large as 60% of demand. (Most of Irans refining industry is running on technology that is pre 1970 era. All due to sanctions.) The reason for the cut in imports is said to be a way to stem the tide of smuggling... Well its all a power play as far as I can see. US/Iran face to face talks are in the offering.... 17/7 GMT 21.44 US Military - Middle East The USS Enterprise Carrier Group is on the way to the Fifth Fleet theater of operations to replace the USS Stennis and then to patrol along side with the USS Nimitz Carrier Group, yet it now seems apparent that the US will return to a one Carrier Group configuration in the area as the USS Enterprise could be left alone when the USS Nimitz deploys back to harbour in September. A military withdrawal.... 17/7 GMT 12.51 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Indonesia - Tengis 1 I have a fairly good feeling about this one... 17/7 GMT 10.46 Canmex Minerals Corporation - CXM.V The company have finally gotten around to putting a website to the world. Which also should be of interest to the Range Resources crew.. 17/7 GMT 01.48 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Lagansky In lieu of the Gazprom deal it might be of interest to repost the DeGolyer - Macnaughton 2005 analysis.. 17/7 GMT 00.46 The Site.. I apologize for the lack of updates of late! I thank you for your patronage and trust it turns out to be for You - Profitable! 17/7 GMT 00.35 Australia - NRL Again I would just like to point out that... 17/7 GMT 00.22 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out 18/7 I expect, Crude - 0.5 mmbls Gasoline + 1.4 mmbls Distillates + 0.8 mmbls Crude Import 10.1 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.5 mmbopd Refineries 91.% Gasoline Demand 9.6 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.9 mmbls Gasoline has lost some of itīs influence over the Crude price so look more at Crude... 16/7 GMT 23.52 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Indonesia - Tengis 1 With a spud date of 10/5 we are coming up on a result... 16/7 GMT 21.14 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Lagansky I wrote, 18/6 GMT 20.54 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Ethiopia As stated before I do not see Lupe losing the license outright, yet it will cost and I suspect a further 20% to 21% of the concession partnership. My most worst case scenario by the way! Well as it turns out it was 20% and one share... The fact that the Lundin Boys got this deal done should put to rest any worries about them not being sons of their father! The deal with Gazprom is classic Lundin and I am sure Adolf is very happy and proud. That Gazprom becomes a partner also means that when the oil is found the time to market will be very much expedited. A very, very good and somewhat predictable outcome! 1/7 GMT 16.09 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX 2007 or the Summer of Tyk... Big Happy! 18/6 GMT 21.45 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 1.0 mmbls Gasoline + 1.3 mmbls Distillates + 0.9 mmbls Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.3 mmbopd Refineries 90.52% Gasoline Demand 9.6 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.7 mmbls Geopoliticals, Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, US Hurricane Season etc.. Take your pick. The most important factor when it comes to US Stats is the looming Hurricane Season which has 17 names stored I belive. Well letīs just the weather take care of itself.. Refiners are low and this is the most salient factor and there are almost 4% left in capacity to reach for. 18/6 GMT 20.54 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Russia - Ethiopia As stated before I do not see Lupe losing the license outright, yet it will cost and I suspect a further 20% to 21% of the concession partnership. My most worst case scenario by the way! Also note that the company is the winner in the tender for new blocks in Ethiopia by way of blocks B7 and B8 in the Ogaden basin.... 12/6 GMT 09.28 Asia - Strategic Petroleum Reserves - China China has completed the first part of itīs SPR build by filling 33 mmbls in the Zhenhai facility. The countries total SPR will have a capacity of 102 mmbls by 2008. The total of the Chinese reserves would be good for about 20 to 25 days of demand. This in contrast to oil reserves of the United States, Japan and Germany which can meet demand for 158, 161 and 127 days, respectively. 12/6 GMT 07.53 Iran - US Military Strike During this week US and Israeli air forces will be conducting joint air maneuvers in the Negev Desert... 11/6 GMT 22.19 OPEC - Average Daily Production - On hold In light of reality on the ground OPEC have decided to keep production at the current level ahead of itīs September meeting. And as the Saudis have announced that they are cutting loadings to Asia and China well itīs all part of the current trend. The graph below is reposted to make this point and Q2 is expected to come in at about 26.5 mmbopd... "OPEC has no plans to release more oil into the market ahead of its next policy meeting in September, Iran's oil minister said Monday. There is adequate crude oil in the market and commercial oil inventories are at a high level, Iranian Minister of Petroleum Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh told reporters on the sideline of a regional oil and gas conference. “There is sufficient crude oil in the market, there is no shortage of crude oil,” he said when asked if Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should raise supplies to the market to ease high oil prices. “Commercial oil stocks are at a very high level, at a comfortable level. The reason for the price hike is not the level of the crude oil stocks. It's not that problem.” 1999 21.965 mmbopd 2000 25.536 mmbopd 2001 24.901 mmbopd 2002 23.394 mmbopd 2003 25.807 mmbopd 2004 27.141 mmbopd 2005 27.991 mmbopd 2006 27.637 mmbopd 2007 26.830 mmbopd (Q1) 11/6 GMT 21.48 The Site.. just ticked over 5.2 million visitors from over 84 countries. 11/6 GMT 21.40 White Nile WNL:LN - Sudan Do not think White Nile is out of the running on the Block Ba license. Let the next few days run their course.... 11/6 GMT 09.22 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky - RosPrirodNadzor I donīt see this project not getting off the ground, what we have seen is negotiation "Russian Style".. The country is run by low brow beurocrats and in this you then have to expect the type of behaviour that has been shown of late. So from where I am sitting I do not see Lupe actually losing the license outright.. 13/3 GMT 01.32 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky The Russian Environmental Agency RosPrirodNadzor is the culprit when it comes to the ridiculous demands placed on foreign oil companies in Russia and Lupe got a taste of it last year. To actually get this project off the ground or off the bottom of a very shallow sea as it where. I see a Russian partner a comin over the mountain... I can almost see this partners face.. No partner no drill! 11/6 GMT 08.55 Range Resources - RRS:ASX The word is $5 by July... 28/5 GMT 11.43 Range Resources - RRS:ASX Heads Up!!... I said in April... *G* 16/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Gasoline + 1.7 mmbls (API na mmbls) Distillates + 1.0 mmbls (API na mmbls) Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.5 mmbopd Refineries 89.5% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.9 mmbls A rise across the board.. 16/5 GMT 00.29 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 3.5 mmbls Gasoline + 1.0 mmbls Distillates + 1.5 mmbls Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Refineries 89.3% Gasoline Demand 9.4 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.2 mmbls Refiners and Gasoline... Due to the low refinery runs Crude should again see a build, but I am here out on a limb. I am setting my trades for a build across the board. 15/5 GMT 01.48 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Q1 Report Hours away from a fairly important report itīs all about Lagansky... No partner no play! That the market is only now waking up to the political facts on the ground in the Soviet Union sorry Russia is amazing.... Yet production numbers will probably ease the situation somewhat. "the doldrums, for anyone who has sailed through this area... You just need a little bit of wind to pick up the slack." 15/5 GMT 01.17 Australia - NRL I would just like to point out that... 14/5 GMT 22.37 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Q1 Report - A Comment - Updated That production numbers where going to be weak was as expected and are due to delays in infrastructure. Such are things sometimes... The salient and most important points in this report which simply echoes that which the company has stated earlier are one that until the company knows exactly what it has in the ground - The For Sale sign is kept in the back room. Secondly and I stress this! the added value to what already is proven is that which OD-153/OD-158 can hold. I wrote some time ago on the 16/3 - "do not forget the potential of the Butmah and Kurachina structures..." This company is as close to a Pure Upstreamer as you can get but for one thing, it has production. The criteria are therefore not so much about the Cash Flow as it is about the Assets in the ground. Yet with an active program of increasing production ofcourse the rest will follow. In this the EOR is crucial and as it turns out very succesfull. Again itīs just a question of seeing the larger picture... 13/5 GMT 22.17 Eastern Gas Limited - ASX:ESG Just another Heads Up.. 12/5 GMT 23.34 OPEC - Average Daily Production 1999 21.965 mmbopd 2000 25.536 mmbopd 2001 24.901 mmbopd 2002 23.394 mmbopd 2003 25.807 mmbopd 2004 27.141 mmbopd 2005 27.991 mmbopd 2006 27.637 mmbopd 2007 26.830 mmbopd (Q1) Production numbers ex of late Angola and since 1991, Iraq ie OPEC 10 and not OPEC 12. 12/5 GMT 23.33 Oil - VLCC Freight Rates 11/5 GMT 14.58 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Q1 Report - Updated 11/5 GMT 14.05 Site Updates During May the site will be updated less frequently due again to travel. I apologize for this inconvenience! 11/5 GMT 14.03 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX At the risk of sounding like an old broken record... Crédit Agricole Indosuez Cheuvreux have bought about 2.5% of the outstanding shares in this company, being French they are ofcourse just Crazy.. I think not! Two analysts reports that have been around awhile, yet well worth a second reading... 7/5 GMT 01.04 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX Another stock in the doldrums, yet for anyone who has sailed through this area... You just need a little bit of wind to pick up the slack. 3/5 GMT 22.52 Peak Oil - China China's newly found oilfield boasts reserve of 7.35 bln barrels China's newly found oilfield in Bohai Bay has a reserve of one billion tons, or about 7.35 billion barrels, the largest discovery in the country for over four decades, announced the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) on Thursday..... 3/5 GMT 22.29 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Somebody at or through Crédit Agricole Indosuez Cheuvreux is tuned in... Again I have to reiterate forget the low volume and the falling stock price... See the larger picture! 2/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API - Updated late.. Crude + 1.1 mmbls (API + 5.4 mmbls) Gasoline - 1.1 mmbls (API - 0.2 mmbls) Distillates - 0.2 mmbls (API + 2.9 mmbls) Crude Import 10.3 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.2 mmbopd Refineries 88.3% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.2 mmbls Refiners will be coming back in the nexr few weeks and with one eye to the API numbers for Crude this report is market neutral to negative. 1/5 GMT 00.10 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out 3/5 GMT 15.30 I expect, Crude + 1.0 mmbls Gasoline - 2.0 mmbls Distillates + 1.0 mmbls Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Refineries 87.9% Gasoline Demand 9.4 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.5 mmbls Itīs all about Gasoline and the Refiners. With Refiners still not up to speed it is uncertain territory. Gasoline contracts are in backwardation so take heed... 30/4 GMT 14.07 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API My expectations on the storage numbers will be posted later. Just a warning that the oil contracts today are driven by the Gasoline supply situation and Refiners, both of which can and are expected to change going forward.... 29/4 GMT 22.57 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX Adversity has a way of bringing out either the best or the worst in people and or companies. The Lundin Group of Companies have seen adversity many times before and the market has everytime got it wrong. Have a little faith.. *G* In this Lundin Petroleum could have done the "easy thing" by spinning off the assets deemed to be Viking Oil & Gas at a less favourable price, but because they had stated that current shareholders would be fairly compensated they had commited themselfs. Think on this!!! 29/4 GMT 20.37 Peak Oil - Climate Change, Two sides of the same Rotten Coin - Updated Again I am going to expand on this as part of the Peak Oil - Iraq postings but first I would like for you to again or for the first time read. The expansion.. Peak Oil and Climate Change have in a perverted way become two sides of the same rotten coin. For one Peak Oil is a fact, that it is called a theory has always amused me as it is a mathematical fact.. Any finite resource has a Beginning a Peak and an End. No theory needed. Climate Change is a whole different cettle of fish but it has almost become a mathematical fact akin to Peak Oil simply because it has become much like Peak Oil a Policy and in this it is Political. Peak Oil can be delt with rather quickly as none on this planet knows how much oil there is on this planet, none knows how much there is to recover. Hubberd had a theory but again anyone who says they know how much oil there is to recover are talking through their hat! Iraq is a prime example 116 billion barrels could be 216 billion barrels....... Oil sands, oil shale, deep sea oil, oil under the Arctic or Antartica etc etc.. Again Peak Oil is fact but the numbers to make it a certain fact in so far as when Peak Oil will occur are not available to us simply becasue we do not know how much oil there is on this planet of ours. We donīt even know all the places where it could be found, we have a pretty good idea and we are exploring for it there but again as history shows us - surprise. Deep sea oil was thought only 10 to 15 years ago to be recoverable at depths of 500 meters. Today we are at 7.000 to 10.000 meters and counting. Climate Change is said to be caused by humans... Once you have stopped laughing about this statement its time to look at the facts. CO2 is the culprit according to scientists well funded by those who belive the myth and want to propulgate it. CO2 makes up about 0.055% of the atmosphere so ofcourse it is easy to see that this very important gas is a huge part of the problem... Thank you IPCC. Humans by way of 150 years of industrial activity are the cause of Climate Change... *G* In the 70īs it was said we are heading into a new Ice Age today 30 odd years later we are heading into Global Warming.. Things sure do speed up as we go along. How did the planet cope before Al Gore and the rest of the munchkins came along to tell us all about it. Remember the huge block of Arctic ice that broke off some years ago and made it on to prime time news? Well it moved about 500 meters and logged itself in a cove and froze solidly togheter with the rest of the ice pack... For sure there are droughts in Australia, Africa, South East Asia and the Northen Hemisphere is warmer than usual but so it has been on and off long before the internet (btw thanks Al Gore for inventing it) or 24 hour News. I am not going to run to long on this but please read up on the facts and donīt get fooled by those who count on the fact that most people donīt have the energy to find out about - The Real Facts on these two issues. 27/4 GMT 08.17 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Viking - A Comment Its frustrating when the fundamental value of a company is very poorly reflected by the market, yet this is also the lifeblood of the same market as it is the imbalances that generate revenue... 27/4 GMT 06.09 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Viking Lundin withdraws Viking IPO.. 27/4 GMT 00.38 Site Updates The low frequency of updates is again and again due to travel. Interesting information gathering.. 27/4 GMT 00.37 Peak Oil - Climate Change, Two sides of the same Rotten Coin - Updated I am going to expand on this as part of the Peak Oil - Iraq postings but first I would like for you to again or for the first time read. 25/4 Australia - ANZAC DAY We remember all those who have paid the ultimate sacrifice in war. 23/4 GMT 22.32 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude - 3.0 mmbls Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls Distillates + 1.5 mmbls Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd Refineries 91.8% Gasoline Demand 9.4 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.3 mmbls 23/4 GMT 21.09 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Forget the low volume in trades, see the larger picture... Its time to Rock and Roll! 23/4 GMT 01.01 White Nile WNL:LN - Sudan Kedelai is going to be very interesting.. 21/4 GMT 03.09 Peak Oil - Iraq - Updated The problem with Peak Oil is not that it is a theory, because it is a fact. Just not that simple though.. Any finite resource will have a Start a Peak and an End. The problem with the current Peak Oil movement is that it has almost become religion with old man Hubberdīs Peak Oil Theory more or less the gospel. Which is to an advantage for many players in oil, the oil companies, the producers, the traders etc. Yet none on this planet knows how much oil there is on the planet... A Fact! Iraq could contain more or less twice itīs current reserve of oil and gas. Surprised well you should not be because oil is being found all over the place every day, given not in the amount in a singular region like the North Sea but oil is turning up all over the place. In this the Peak in Hubbards theorem just gets moved further up the time line. The era of cheap oil is over it is said not so much because it is true but because it is part of the Peak Oil Theory, the funny thing is that there is lotīs of relative cheap oil still in the ground in Iran and more so in Iraq. Both countries have huge reserves of oil and gas yet very poor production due either to war or sanctions or both. Africa has huge amounts of oil yet even there in the ground under countries deep in strife and war. In fact as far as energy goes the planet has huge amounts, more than we will need in the conceivable future the only problem is that it is not "politically clean". More on this... 19/4 GMT 19.29 IRAQ - Western Desert I have written about Iraqīs Western Desert for some years now.. And now itīs seems there could be a further 100 billion barrels of oil and gas in the region.. 20/2 GMT 00.19 IRAQ - Western Desert I wrote in 2005, "20/7 IRAQ - Western Desert There are interesting "Oil Fields" in Iraqīs Western Desert....." As expected there are interesting things in Western Iraq close to Syria.. Iraq's oil reserves could be twice as great as was previously thought. Iraq has known reserves of 116 billion barrels and could be sitting on potential reserves of a further 100 billion barrels, according to a study by Texas-based energy analysts, IHS. If confirmed, Iraq could overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's top oil producer. Iraq's oil reserves are significantly untapped and daily production could be doubled within five years, the study said. Current output of two million barrels a day is lower than in early 2003, when three million barrels were being pumped, and almost half that being produced in 1979. Iraq has the capacity to increase production to four million barrels by 2012, if international investment begins to flow, with the capacity to further increase that to six million within time, according to IHS estimates. The study is considered the most comprehensive independent analysis of the country's resources since the US-led invasion in 2003. It is based on data collected in Iraq before and after the invasion, showing the oilfield's reserves and production history. Its estimate is based on analysis of geological surveys. IHS' president and chief operating officer, Ron Mobed, described Iraq's reserves as "phenomenal", adding that they represented a "gold star opportunity." "Obviously the security situation is very bad, but when you look at the sub-surface opportunity, there isn't anywhere else like this. Geologically, it's right up there, a gold star opportunity." He stressed that the security situation needed to improve dramatically if the foreign investment necessary to improve the country's infrastructure was to materialise. "Obviously, the security situation is very bad. But once the infrastructure is in place, the oil will come out of the ground quite cheaply", said Mobed. IHS estimates that production costs are less than $2 a barrel. Of Iraq's 78 oilfields identified as commercial by the government, only 27 are currently producing. A further 25 are not yet developed, but are close to production. Another 26 are not yet developed and are far from production. The study found that Iraq's two main oilfields, at Kirkuk in the north of the country and Rumaila in the south, were operating below capacity. Earlier this year, the Iraqi government agreed a draft law for how its oil wealth would be shared among ethnic groups, seen as crucial to encouraging new investment. The proposed law is due to be considered by the Iraqi parliament shortly, although the Kurdish region rejects some of the proposals. 19/4 GMT 01.59 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky I wrote earlier... 13/3 GMT 01.32 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Lagansky The Russian Environmental Agency RosPrirodNadzor is the culprit when it comes to the ridiculous demands placed on foreign oil companies in Russia and Lupe got a taste of it last year. To actually get this project off the ground or off the bottom of a very shallow sea as it where. I see a Russian partner a comin over the mountain... I can almost see this partners face.. No partner no drill! 18/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 1.0 mmbls (API - 3.3 mmbls) Gasoline - 2.7 mmbls (API - 0.24 mmbls) Distillates - 0.8 mmbls (API - 0.7 mmbls) Crude Import 9.9 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd Refineries 90.4% Gasoline Demand 9.4 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.3 mmbls As Refineries are operating at over 90% of capacity a huge chunk is taken out of the Crude numbers and this will show up in the products going forward, especially Gasoline. So despite the across the board fall the fact that Refiners are back online will make this report market neutral to slightly negative. 18/4 GMT 10.32 Tenke Mining - TNK:TSE The "Tenke Fungurume Feasibility Study February 2007 Technical Report, Katanga Province, DRC".. 18/4 GMT 10.02 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Viking Oil & Gas With the Viking Oil & Gas IPO set at between 38 NOK and 44 NOK per share the parent company should come under pressure, yet as stated earlier I do not expect the Lupe share to take much of a hit as the sum of the parts in a lot of ways actually becomes more than the whole. My advice would be to partake in the IPO and just stay your hand as far as Lupe is concerned. I expect the IPO to be more than well oversubscribed.. 18/4 GMT 09.29 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Risky business to be selling this stock at this time.. 18/4 GMT 03.04 White Nile WNL:LN - Sudan A spud date for one of the four drills is still on the cards for this month... 18/4 GMT 02.12 Tenke Mining - TNK:TSE The "Tenke Fungurume Feasibility Study February 2007 Technical Report, Katanga Province, DRC", will be interesting reading.. 18/4 GMT 00.09 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 2.2 mmbls Gasoline - 2.8 mmbls Distillates - 1.9 mmbls Natural gas + 70 Bcf Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd Refineries 87.5% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 3.0 mmbls 16/4 GMT 19.17 Site Updates The low frequency of updates is again due to travel. 15/4 GMT 23.30 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Syria Again I must reiterate do not forget the potential of the Butmah and Kurachina structures... 12/4 GMT 01.35 Tenke Mining - TNK:TSE - Lundin Mining - LUMI:SAX To those who do not see this as a great deal for both TNK and LUMI I can only say, your ultimate loss! Mechanics concerning the spot price of Copper or Zinc are short term considerations, this deal is for the long haul... 11/4 GMT 10.51 Range Resources - RRS:ASX Heads Up!!... 11/4 GMT 10.06 Tenke Mining - TNK:TSE - Tenke Fungurume I did write in a post concerning TYK.. "Please note the activity on other fronts in the Lundin sphere of interest par example Lundin Mining".. This is a good merger, very good. Tenkes projects will now finally get off the ground. 5/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Natural gas + 58 Bcf A larger than expected injection especially as some were looking for a draw. Natural Gas storage is about 27% above the 5-year average. A market neutral to slightly negative report. 5/4 GMT 01.29 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Viking Oil & Gas The spin-off will have I suspect very little negative effect on the parent companys share valuation... 5/4 GMT 01.25 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX Please note the activity on other fronts in the Lundin sphere of interest par example Lundin Mining.. Do not think that an asset like TYK is going to be sitting around for too long without being realised to itīs full current potential. 4/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 4.3 mmbls (API - 0.1 mmbls) Gasoline - 5.0 mmbls (API - 0.4 mmbls) Distillates +- 0.0 mmbls (API + 0.4 mmbls) Crude Import 10.2 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.0 mmbopd Refineries 87.0% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories - 2.7 mmbls Market neutral report on the whole. Gasoline demand was up and Refiners are still on the sideline. 4/4 GMT 11.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API I expect, Crude + 2.2 mmbls Gasoline - 1.8 mmbls Distillates - 1.5 mmbls Natural gas + 58 Bcf Crude Import 9.9 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Refineries 87.3% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.5 mmbls 1/4 GMT 00.09 Iran - US Military Strike The probability of a US/UK strike on Iran is today gaged to be about 75%. In this note the Arab worlds overt actions to distance itself from a strike and the fact that several Gulf States are quietly advicing US and UK personel to either leave the country or maintain a low presence, something which is echoed by companies in the region... Proxy wars are often spoken about and they usually entail the US or Russia letting a third party do the messy business. In Iraq it is the US/UK who are doing the fighting... 31/3 GMT 09.05 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:SAX - Annual Report 31/3 GMT 00.09 Iran - US Military Strike The probability of a US/UK strike on Iran is today gaged to be about 75%. In this note the Arab worlds overt actions to distance itself from a strike and the fact that several Gulf States are quietly advicing US and UK personel to either leave the country or maintain a low presence, something which is echoed by companies in the region. More on this.... 30/3 GMT 23.13 Iran - US Military Strike The USS Nimitz CVN-68 Carrier Strike Group will be departing San Diego Monday 2/4, to join the John C Stennis Strike Group in the Persian Gulf. The USS Nimitz nuclear carrier is due to relieve the USS Dwight D Eisenhower , but it is most likelly that all of the Carriers will stay in the area if tensions continue to escalate or if fighting breaks out involving American, British and obviously Iranian forces... 29/3 GMT 02.08 Iran - An Oil Producer with a heavy Import Dependency If you have read this site for a while this is not news but just a revision.. Iran exports about 2 mmbopd and in this not one drop to the US. Irans economy has been run into the ground by itīs regimes and long standing sanctions, which are set to get worse quickly. Irans oil industry is a mess and a country with the second or third largest oil reserve on the planet has to import about 40% of itīs Gasoline demand. A product that also is heavily subsidized simply becuase the economy is - a mess. The best way to disguise this is by making everybody feel happy that at least Gasoline is cheap. The problem is that this is costing Iran billions... 29/3 GMT 02.06 Iran - US Military Strike The aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis - CVN 74 and the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group - IKE CSG are at this moment conducting the wrap up 0f dual carrier exercises in the Gulf Region. This after President Bush had specifically asked the UKīs Prime Minister if this would harm the ongoing capture of 15 UK sailors and Marines. So at this moment about 120 to 130 strike aircraft are fine tuning their maneuvers off the borders of Iran.... 28/3 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 0.9 mmbls (API + 5.9 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.3 mmbls (API - 2.2 mmbls) Distillates - 0.7 mmbls (API - 4.1 mmbls) Natural gas - 22Bcf Crude Import 9.6 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 1.1 mmbopd Refineries 87.0% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.4 mmbls The Import numbers skew the stats. As Gasoline Imports where impressive it takes the edge of the worry about supply/demand for now.. Refiners have had problems and more of this will show up next week. A market neutral report. 27/3 GMT 23.06 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API out 28/3 GMT 15.30 I expect, Crude + 4.5 mmbls Gasoline - 2.5 mmbls Distillates + 1.5 mmbls Natural Gas + 10 Bcf Crude Import 10.6 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.9 mmbopd Refineries 86.9% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.4 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 3.5 mmbls I could see a scenario with a build across the board...