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1/2 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude + 1.9 mmbls Gasoline + 4.2 mmbls Distillates - 0.2 mmbls Crude Import 9.6 mmbopd Refineries 87.0% Gasoline Demand 8.9 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd 1/2 Oil - Statistics from the USA I expect, Crude + 2.0 mmbls Gasoline + 2.5 mmbls Distillates + 1.5 mmbls Crude Import 9.5 mmbopd Refineries 87.5% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Natural Gas + 70 billion cubic feet There are so many factors right know itīs a case of take your pick. Iran, Palestine, Nigeria, Venezuela, US State of the Union etc... Yet the expectations for the US stats are as above again, a build. Stock levels are for the most part above average and in this Crude and Natural Gas are the stand-outs. 31/1 WTI Front Month - A FishNetŪ Perspective - Daily 25/1 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude - 2.3 mmbls Gasoline + 3.2 mmbls Distillates + 1.8 mmbls Import 9.3 mmbopd Refineries 86.2% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd 24/1 Oil - Statistics from the USA I expect, Crude + 2.0 mmbls Gasoline + 1.5 mmbls Distillates + 3.0 mmbls Import 10.0 mmbopd Refineries 88.5% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Natural Gas + 30 billion cubic feet Warm weather in the US is a factor. The variable is the refinery runs as last week saw lower than expected runs due to work overs. Build across the board again. Iran, Nigeria are running the oil price right now, yet perhaps more than warrented. If the stats come in above expectations then the contracts could be in for a bashing. 19/1 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude + 2.7 mmbls Gasoline + 2.8 mmbls Distillates + 0.9 mmbls Import 9.8 mmbopd Refineries 86.5% Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.2 mmbopd Natural Gas - 46 billion cubic feet Refiners - more than expected are down for maintenance. 19/1 Oil - Statistics from the USA I expect, Crude + 1.0 mmbls Gasoline + 1.5 mmbls Distillates + 3.5 mmbls Import 10.1 mmbopd Refineries 90.1% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Natural Gas - 15 billion cubic feet Storage I belive will continue to show an increase and especially so for Natural Gas... 13/1 WTI - Brent The Contracts Are influenced by three thingīs right now Iran and US Supply and the weather. There is ample supply and the weather is above average warmer. Iran is Iran... Stupidity. 12/1 WTI Front Month - A FishNetŪ Perspective - Daily 12/1 Oil - China Imports I find it interesting that China only increased itīs import of oil by 3% from 2004 to 2005.. Not quite the 15% increase some have calculated with... 11/1 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude - 2.9 mmbls Gasoline + 4.5 mmbls Distillates + 4.9 mmbls Import 9.9 mmbopd Refineries 89.8% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Natural Gas - 20 billion cubic feet And so came the build in the products. Itīs been growing for some time and I suspect we are in for more. Negative? No just had many years in the patch... The contracts today are totally disconnected from the Fundamentals.. 10/1 Oil - Interesting Happenings China and India are dut to meet today to get some sort of balance in the Oil Patch. Both countries have come to the conclusion that they are part of the price structure in that they in competion are driving the price of oil up... Who would have thought it!? This is one point on the meetings agenda. Russia the Sate and Gazprom - hard to know where one starts and the other ends. Reality is that Gazprom is the Russian state and Putins little Power Play. Russia wants so badly to be a superpower again and if this means saying itīs all about market economics and really is about something else - well why the heck not! Gazprom is supposed to be a company in the market place at the whim of the same market, yeah right! Ukraine's subsidized rate was essentially a problem of the Kremlin's own creation. Gazprom had agreed to the $50 price in 2004, to help the Kremlin-backed candidate in Ukraine's presidential election. The $50 deal was supposed to last until 2009. But when the Kremlin's candidate lost the presidency to Viktor Yushchenko, who wanted Ukraine to join the European Union and NATO, the Kremlin changed the rules. Market rates were invoked. Moreover, Gazprom has been using different pricing criteria for different nations. The Ukraine was in this asked to pay $230 per 1.000 cubic meters.. Georgia pays $110 for the same amount of gas, as do Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Baltic states, which are members of the European Union, pay $120 to $125. Moldova pays $160. Belarus, a firm Russian ally, pays $47. The Kremlin suffers from amnesia and hypocrisy alike. 10/1 Oil - Statistics from the USA out on 11/1 I expect, Crude - 1.0 mmbls Gasoline + 0.5 mmbls Distillates + 2.0 mmbls Import 10.3 mmbopd Refineries 89.8% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd Natural Gas + 30 billion cubic feet 6/1 Price of Oil - Close 5/1 Nymex Crude Future 62.79 -0.63 IPE Crude Future 61.13 -0.55 Dated Brent Spot 61.46 -0.56 WTI Cushing Spot 62.79 -0.63 Minas 59.70 +1.04 OPEC 11 56.89 +0.51 5/1 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude - 1.0 mmbls Gasoline + 1.4 mmbls Distillates + 2.1 mmbls Import 10.1 mmbopd Refineries 89.9% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Natural Gas + 1 billion cubic feet Well having said that the stats have not shown any surprises Natural Gas goes and gives us one Big Time! Look for Crude to retreat again as the last few dayīs increase has been totally needless. Fueled by Putins stupid gasplay with the Ukraine. 5/1 Falkland Oil & Gas FOGL:LSE New CEO - Tim Bushell, effective 16 January 2006. Company Site 5/1 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Indonesia - JATI-1 I donīt see this one going anywhere.. Could in this be wrong, but I think not. 3/1 Oil - Statistics from the USA out on 5/1 I expect, Crude - 2.0 mmbls Gasoline + 1.0 mmbls Distillates + 1.5 mmbls Import 10.3 mmbopd Refineries 89.5% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Natural Gas - 45 billion cubic feet North American weather is warmer than normal and has been so for some time. This then leads to lower demand for Heating Oil, about 15% lower demand actually. Colder weather is expected going forward yet thus far the winter has been below average as far as winters go. It should be noted that the most interesting aspect of the stats during the last month or so is that the differences have all been very minor. No surprises.. 29/12 Oil - Statistics from the USA I expect, Crude + 2.5 mmbls Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls Distillates + 1.5 mmbls Import 10.6 mmbopd Refineries 90.0% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Natural Gas - 115 billion cubic feet 21/12 WTI Front Month - A FishNetŪ Perspective - Daily 21/12 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude + 1.3 mmbls Gasoline - 2.8 mmbls Distillates - 0.3 mmbls Import 9.9 mmbopd Refineries 88.0% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.3 mmbopd Natural Gas - 162 billion cubic feet (22/12) 21/12 Oil - Statistics from the USA I expect, Crude + 1.0 mmbls Gasoline + 2.5 mmbls Distillates + 0.2 mmbls Import 10.8 mmbopd Refineries 90.2% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Natural Gas - 145 billion cubic feet I am a bit out on a limb as far as the stats go as I see a build across the board. 16/12 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - APA 2005 Lundin Norway picks up operator licenses in PL 363 with 60% partnership and PL359 with 70% partnership... 15/12 WTI Front Month - A FishNetŪ Perspective - Daily 12/12 WTI Front Month - A FishNetŪ Perspective - Daily 10/12 Price of Oil - Close 9/12 Nymex Crude 59.39 IPE Crude 57.31 Dated Brent 56.04 WTI Cushing 59.39 Opec 11 52.65 Minas 58.56 7/12 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude + 2.7 mmbls Gasoline + 2.7 mmbls Distillates + 2.7 mmbls Import 10.6 mmbopd Refineries 90.6% Gasoline Demand 9.2 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Natural Gas - 59 billion cubic feet Well + 2.7 across the board and refiners above 90% again... Imports are also picking up even if they are just a smidgen below last year same time. 7/12 Oil - Statistics from the USA I expect, Crude + 2.0 mmbls Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls Distillates + 1.5 mmbls Import 10.2 mmbopd Refineries 89.6% Gasoline Demand 8.9 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.1 mmbopd Natural Gas - 65 billion cubic feet Refiners are coming back online. The Cold Weather is not colder than usual - it is actually winter you know! Yet the contracts have gained on just that the - Cold Weather Factor. USA is in a 50 - 50 mode as to whether the winter will be worse than normal or better than normal.... For the most part I guess it will just be - Winter! I just wonder sometimes if itīs just simply a question of the market saying, "Hey man whatīs this cold white stuff on the ground?.." OPEC is producing gangbusters and this will show up in the Stats, sooner or later. There are many tankers filled with oil... 2/12 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG So why did big daddy Lundin buy all those shares.. *G* 1/12 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Indonesia - JATI-1 We are coming up on the target depth.. 1/12 China - Economic Growth & Steel GFCF - Gross Fixed Capital Formation GDP - Gross Domestic Product Gross Fixed Capital Formation is in this the total value of a producer's acquisitions, less disposals, of fixed assets during the accounting period plus certain additions to the value of non-produced assets by the productive activity of institutional units. Fixed assets are tangible or intangible assets that are produced as outputs from processes of production and that are themselves used repeatedly or continuously in other processes of production for more than one year... Simply itīs the thingīs you think you are going to need going forward like industrial plants, housing, office space, factory units etc. In this it is a good indicator of what is expected of the near future... Why do I post Steel Graphs.. Well Steel is one of the many cross-overs that affect Oil demand. I hope to broaden the scope with other commodity based products going forward, yet for now it is up to you to interpret the graphs. 1/12 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude took a dive as did Gasoline, yet Distillates increased way more than most expected. Refiners are coming back at a steady pace and this is the important factor. Demand for Gasoline and Distillates were above expected and this is a heads up, yet we are going to need some real bad news weather-wise for the Contracts to start picking up. December seeīs amongst others, two major events - OPEC meets and Iraq elects... OPEC 11 below $50 - again. 1/12 Price of Oil - Close 29/11 Nymex Crude 57.37 IPE Crude 55.05 Dated Brent 52.34 WTI Cushing 57.37 Opec 11 49.78 Minas 52.41 29/11 Oil - Statistics from the USA - Prognosis for 30/11 I expect, Crude + 2.5 mmbls Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls Distillates + 2.0 mmbls Import 10.2 mmbopd Refineries 89.0% Gasoline Demand 8.7 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd Natural Gas - 20 billion cubic feet I see a build across the board as far as Crude, Gasoline and Distillates goes remember that Katrina fades more and more for every week.. Also there is probably more Crude on the way to the US than needed as a result of the knee-jerk decisions made when all was bleak. And the Contracts? Long term itīs fundamentals. Short term itīs all about the weather.. One day of snow and the sheep at NYMEX are up and running. 27/11 Price of Oil - Close 24/11 Nymex Crude 58.15 IPE Crude 55.01 Dated Brent 53.18 WTI Cushing 58.15 Opec 11 50.89 Minas 55.22 26/11 WTI Front Month - A FishNetŪ Perspective - Daily Weather worries, Geopoliticals and Statistics drive the Contracts only momentarily... The rest is Trend and Fundamentals and they are pointing down.. 23/11 Oil OPEC will at itīs meeting Dec 12 mull the prospect of cutting quotas.... OPEC is in this right. NONOPEC which has seen itīs production increase is part of the reason as is a slowing in demand especially from China. The situation is this - The world is not suddenly running out of oil... And it has been not doing so since the WTI$70 mark. 23/11 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX I have no problems with restating the earlier belife that 80 SEK to 100 SEK at the end of the year is a conservative estimate for this growing oiler.. 100 SEK plus is the target.. Just study the facts concerning the company, at your leasure ofcourse... 22/11 Oil - Statistics from the USA - Prognosis for 23/11 I expect, Crude - 1.0 mmbls Gasoline + 2.5 mmbls Distillates + 2.0 mmbls Import 10.1 mmbopd Refineries 87.5% Gasoline Demand 8.8 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd Natural Gas + 60 billion cubic feet 22/11 WTI Front Month - A FishNetŪ Perspective - Daily 21/11 Oil - The Contracts I am afraid that I am going to be right about the contracts going forward. Down is the sentiment and also the fundamentals, for now. This is winter in the North and as such the weather in the US matters, a lot. Yet look for the Oil Contracts to continue retreating.. 10/11 Oil - Statistics from the USA As stated before.. More Gasoline in this weeks stats, and not a big a drop as expected by the market in Heating Oils.. More Crude than expected by the market, yet again. The price of Crude is in a downward trend and it will continue, as stated before.. We could find ourselves in Q3 and Q4 all dressed up with nowhere to go. 3/11 Oil I wrote.. "Simply the answer is that there is very little happening in the oil patch at the moment"... If you belive that, find another site.... More to come! 3/11 Updates on the site Simply the answer is that there is very little happening in the oil patch at the moment... The Peak Oil Crowd are still looking for a "Peak Date", they thought it was the 15th of August.... The World is not running out of Oil, the world is pretty much where it was before that which sent it into a total spinnnn.. The US$ is heading North in a big way and this will see the contracts decline - NO PEAK OIL!, yet.. 18/10 Steel Price Export Import - China 15/9 NYMEX - Front Month Crude 15/9 The Strategic Petroleum Reserves - Beware.. The IEA is today mulling the SPRīs and whether to release further reserves, that is beyond the 60 mmbls it already has allocated. Chances are they will not. The US Department of Energy allocated 30 mmbls yet only 11 mmbls is wanted or needed by the industry. SPR releases have become political footballs, Case in Point - Sweden. The action is too little too late and is just a politicians way of saying "we did something". The release is simply not needed. There is no need for more Crude in the system and the fear is that medeling by politicians will only lead to one thing and that is market imbalance. As the Oil Contracts are set to decrease on their own the SPR releases could tip the scale to where the price dives. Lest not forget that the increase in the Contracts this week are as a result of one statistic summary from the DOE and that is not enough data to go on longterm. Global Oil demand is falling and Katrinas biggest effect on the market will be on the demand side. Natural Gas storage in the US a point... 14/9 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude - 6.6 mmbls Gasoline + 1.9 mmbls Distillates - 1.1 mmbls Import 9.1 mmbopd Refineries 87.3% Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd Natural Gas + 89 billion cubic feet Well as stated this was always going to be full of ifīs and butīs. Note that the Total amount of stockīs only dropped - 4.1 mmbls... Also note the Total Crude Stocks in SPR 699 mmbls... No SPR oil in the market yet.. As stated before. Of the 30 mmbls allocated by the DOE, bids for only 11 mmbls have been submitted to the DOE. Again! No Oil has yet left the SPR!! A summary of todays data is that there is enough Crude in the World. Refiners produced more Gasoline than expected at the expense of Distillates. Look for the Crude Contracts to keep retreating as they should. 14/9 NYMEX - Front Month Crude See where this is heading? 14/9 UK - The true meaning of Hypocrisy UK Chancellor of the Treasury Gordon Brown calling for OPEC to increase production to aleviate the price of Crude. An oil producing Chancellor wantīs OPEC to increase production to lessen the Gasoline price in the UK. This in a country where 81% of the price of Gasoline is TAX! 14/9 Closing Price of Oil 13/9 Nymex Crude 63.11 -.23 IPE Crude 61.61 -.19 Dated Brent 61.13 -.41 WTI Cushing 63.11 -.23 Opec 11 55.78 -.95 14/9 Oil - Statistics from the USA - Prognosis I expect, Crude - 1.0 mmbls Gasoline - 2.5 mmbls Distillates + 2.0 mmbls Import 10.8 mmbopd Refineries 92.5% Gasoline Demand 9.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd Natural Gas + 80 billion cubic feet Look for more "natural situation" numbers. Yet there are many factors that can set this weekīs numbers on their head. Did everyone have the time to actually get the numbers right last week due to the turmoil in the Gulf. Were the numbers reported correctly etc. There are many ifīs and butīs, yet I belive the above expectations are realistic.... Distillates are in for a build as are the Natural Gas storage numbers. Crude and Gasoline will again be down but... It aint by much! 12/9 Cricket - The 2005 Ashes Series Congratulations are England due! 12/9 Oil - The Correction Continous.. Despite Hurricans and outages in refining capacity, loading problems etc that should weigh the market the Contracts are retreating.. A lessening of the very hefty Risk Premium or a case of letīs get back to the Fundamentals... 12/9 The true cost of Oil - The tax on One Liter of Gasoline.. With actions against the HIGH price of Gasoline looming in the UK it is possibly worth the while again recall who is to blame for the HIGH price of the product... The EU have been one of the more vociferous in the campaign for lower Crude Prices.. The price of one Liter of Gasoline in the EU - is TAXED to the tune of, Austria 69% Belgium 75% Denmark 73% Finland 78% Germany 74% Greece 66% Ireland 72% Italy 74% Luxembourg 74% Netherlands 74% Portugal 75% Spain 68% Sweden 74% UK 81% USA 46% Australia 42% Donīt forget that the VAT part of the Tax Structure moves up with the base price ie a higher Oil Price more bucks to the State... 9/9 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Indonesia - JATI-1 Up an running... Cipari is the structure and 3.000 meters is the target depth. Look for the drill to take 3 months.. This is an interesting structure.... 9/9 NYMEX - Front Month Crude Heating Oil Natural Gas Unleaded Gasoline 8/9 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude - 6.4 mmbls Gasoline - 4.3 mmbls Distillates - 0.8 mmbls Import 9.5 mmbopd Refineries 86.8% Gasoline Demand 9.3 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd Natural Gas + 36 billion cubic feet One week does not make a month and Hurricane Season is here for more than that yet as stated thingīs were not as bad as expected by most. Winter Heating Oils took the least damage.. 8/9 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Nigeria - AJE If all goes to plan the drill should take a month (spud 21/8) to reach target depth, another week to ten dayīs for the post drill actions. Then itīs up to the Nigerians as to when the info is "official".. I have a good feeling about this one already... This is a technological drill where new strategy is applied to a field with hydrocarbons present.. 8/9 The Oil & Gas Sector Post Katrina - Repost I wrote on 1/9.. "The devastation in "The Big Easy" is horrendous and the pain and suffering through out the deep South is gut wrenching yet as far as the energy sector goes I get the impression that it may not be that bad. Sources within the sector point to the disruption but not destruction of rigīs and platforms. LOOP is again online and did rather well all thingīs considered. Look for the dust to settle and the factīs to take over with next weekīs DOE and API numbers.. Only the Stats will show the real effect and I belive it will not be as bad as everyone thinks"... That belief is only strengthened as the dayīs march on!... 8/9 Closing Price of Oil 7/9 Nymex Crude 64.40 -1.56 IPE Crude 62.89 -1.78 Dated Brent 62.24 -1.88 WTI Cushing 64.37 -1.59 Opec 11 58.43 -.62 7/9 Oil concession pacts with Swedish, Danish, Irish firms signed - Oman The Sultanate's government yesterday signed two oil concession agreements with Swedish and Danish companies to conduct exploration in Area 15 in Al Dhahirah region and with an Irish company for Area 52 extending from Souqrah Bay to the Oman-Yemen sea borders. The 6 year agreement signed with GotOil Resources Limited, a Swedish firm, and Odin Energi, a Danish company is for digging wells and extending surveys and geological and geophysical studies at a cost of $11 million, while the agreement signed with the Ireland-based Circle Oil Plc is for developing block 52 — a 90,760 sq km-long offshore area that spreads from off the coast of Sokra to Yemen border. GotOil Resources Ltd (Gibraltar) is the new version of Gotland Oil AB of horisontal drilling fame on Church grounds on Gotland... Odin Energi is a private company drilling in Denmark where Tethys Oil is the operator... Circle Oil Plc is already in Oman with an EPSA for block 49 which sits neighbour with block 6, with a daily production of 700.000 bopd.... 7/9 Oil USA - EIA - Short Term Energy Outlook The September Report is out Today.. 7/9 Oil - Statistics from the USA out 8/9 Thursday I expect, Crude - 8.5 mmbls Gasoline - 6.5 mmbls Distillates - 2.5 mmbls Import 9 mmbopd Refineries 88.5% Gasoline Demand 8.0 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd Natural Gas + 25 billion cubic feet This is where it gets tricky... These are the Stats for the week ending 2/9.. Also remember that consumption in the affected States is way down due to storm damage, especially for the Gasoline and Natural Gas numbers.. Letīs face it this weekīs numbers are anyones Guesstimate.. 7/9 Closing Price of Oil 6/9 Nymex Crude 65.65 -0.31 IPE Crude 64.67 -0.18 Dated Brent 64.12 -0.14 WTI Cushing 65.96 -1.61 Opec 11 59.05 -0.17 Nymex is after hours trading numbers.. Look for the price to retreat further, yet itīs all about the factīs of what Katrina really did. The SPR releases are also a major factor... 6/9 New North Sea Oil Licenses - Lundin Heather License 3/1b is right next to Heather, License 211/28b is situtated between Heather och Thistle... 6/9 North Sea Oil Licenses - Lundin Heather The list of License winners will be published 1000 GMT and one of the applicants are Lundin Heather... 6/9 Offshore Europe 2005 Oil & Gas Exhibition & Conference 5/9 Saudi Arabia cuts Oil Price to US & Europe Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has cut all its October crude oil selling prices (OSPs) to the United States and Europe by between 25 cents and $2.75 a barrel. The OPEC member has made the largest cut to the price of its heaviest grades, with Arab Heavy down a hefty $2.75 for Europe and $2.25 for the US. It cut Arab Light, its main grade, by $1.00 for the United States and $1.90 for Europe. Saudi Aramco cut its prices to Asia by a narrower 15-to-65-cent range, with the exception of Arab Super Light, which it raised by 40 cents. Prices at Ras Tanura for Saudi oil destined for Europe are set against the IPE Brent crude weighted average (BWAVE). 5/9 North Sea Oil Licenses Suggests Record Interest The U.K. government is set to award the largest number of oil exploration licenses in more than four decades, signaling a revival in interest by oil companies in the North Sea, according to Energy Minister Malcolm Wicks. Wicks will announce results of the 23rd licensing round on Tuesday 6/9. More than 150 licenses will be awarded - the highest number since 1964, when Harold Wilson became prime minister. 5/9 WTI Front Month - A FishNetŪ Perspective - Daily 2/9 The Oil & Gas Sector Post Katrina - The Market Look for profit taking ahead of the Labour Day long weekend. Even if about 85% of the sector is down in the Katrina Region President Bushīs decisision to let non-American vessels load and ship Crude and Products within the US should aleviate the price surge. SPRīs!!!.... Strange donīt you think that a country so dependent on Oil only allows American flagged ships to load the product... Security is the answer and rightly so. The DOE and API numbers are the litmus test however as they show the total loadings for the US.. 2/9 WTI Front Month - A FishNetŪ Perspective - Daily 1/9 The Oil & Gas Sector Post Katrina The devastation in "The Big Easy" is horrendous and the pain and suffering through out the deep South is gut wrenching yet as far as the energy sector goes I get the impression that it may not be that bad. Sources within the sector point to the disruption but not destruction of rigīs and platforms. LOOP is again online and did rather well all thingīs considered. Look for the dust to settle and the factīs to take over with next weekīs DOE and API numbers.. Only the Stats will show the real effect and I belive it will not be as bad as everyone thinks... Case in point! "A U.S. Gulf Coast refiner that was approved for an emergency crude oil loan from the emergency U.S. stockpile cancelled its request because it obtained the oil elsewhere, the Energy Department said on Wednesday. This afternoon, that company rescinded its request, because it was able to take planned deliveries of oil from commercial sources, an Energy Department spokesman said. The department did not identify the refiner. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds more than 700 million barrels of crude in salt caverns in Louisiana and Texas. It loaned 5 million barrels of oil to refiners last year to stabilize supplies after a hurricane." 1/9 Oil & Gas - Spot Prices 1/9 Closing Price of Oil 31/8 Nymex Crude 68.94 -.87 IPE Crude 67.02 -.55 Dated Brent 66.68 -.81 WTI Cushing 68.94 -.87 Opec 11 59.90 -.41 31/8 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude - 1.5 mmbls Gasoline - 0.5 mmbls Distillates + 2.7 mmbls Import 10.6 mmbopd Refineries 97.1% Gasoline Demand 9.4 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd OK so the Crude numbers were down, BUT yet again Distillates saw a build. Recal that prior to the current drivers of Crude Contracts the fear of not enough heating oil for Christmas was the factor behind the wheel... Refinery runs were the big surprise and the coming weeks will be tainted by Katrina, SPR lending will abate some of the worries yet probably not enough. I would point out that Labour Day 5 September is unofficially the "end of the driving season".. Look henceforth for Gasoline demand to decrease, a smidgen... 31/8 Oil - Statistics from the USA I expect, Crude + 2.5 mmbls Gasoline - 1.0 mmbls Distillates + 2.0 mmbls Import 11 mmbopd Refineries 95.5% Gasoline Demand 8.8 mmbopd Distillate Demand 3.9 mmbopd Natural Gas + 75 billion cubic feet Look for further build in Crude and Distillates... Katrina makes her impact next week and onwards.. That is beyond the out of control panic in the market right now. 29/8 USA - Katrina - LOOP Should be an interesting day in the Oil Patch. Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, Inc. - LOOP, Closed down on Saturday afternoon and most rigs and platforms in the area have been evacuated. LOOP is the US main Oil Port.. 25/8 USA Natural Gas storage Came in at + 60 billion cubic feet.. Katrina lookīs today set to miss US Gulf oil and gas installations. Katrina being the storm.. 25/8 Oil prices Last 1 day 1 week 4 weeks 3 months 1 year 3 years Brent Blend 66.5 65.61 63.66 58.77 47.19 42.95 27.56 Tapis 69.39 68.93 68.93 60.43 48.73 49.45 27.6 Alaska North Slope 54.25 62.71 63.36 57.15 45.74 43.4 29.04 Dubai 1M 58.1 56.61 57.81 52.41 44.81 40.24 25.71 Louisiana Sweet 68.44 66.13 67.02 59.56 49.52 46.18 28.42 Urals 58.94 59.16 57.81 56.54 43.69 38.74 26.51 WTI 67.05 65.46 66.11 59.2 48.68 46.0 29.99 Oman 1M 59.25 57.88 59.02 53.05 46.41 40.25 26.08 Minas 63.74 65.28 65.28 56.08 47.38 46.85 27.05 Forties 67.14 66.11 64.41 59.19 46.89 43.99 27.56 Bonny Light 67.84 66.76 65.01 59.64 47.74 43.69 27.69 25/8 Natural Gas prices Last 1 day 1 week 4 weeks 3 months 1 year 3 years UK day ahead 31.05 31.5 29.9 34.3 29.9 25.9 14.45 Alberta 9.24 9.03 9.21 7.15 6.39 5.85 3.34 North California 8.46 7.98 8.16 6.34 5.63 5.0 2.88 Appalachia average 10.23 9.84 10.12 7.82 6.61 5.58 3.94 Louisiana average 9.88 9.43 9.64 7.39 6.29 5.26 3.45 Midcontinent average 8.8 8.39 8.62 6.74 5.96 5.01 3.17 Rocky Mt average 8.11 7.61 7.87 6.25 5.48 4.76 1.11 Texas coast 9.47 9.19 9.38 7.2 6.17 5.17 3.36 West Texas average 9.34 8.58 8.78 6.87 5.95 4.93 3.16 Henry hub 10.01 9.44 9.66 7.45 6.33 5.34 4.54 25/8 Closing Oil Price 24/8 Nymex Crude 67.32 1.61 IPE Crude 66.01 1.36 Dated Brent 67.14 1.90 WTI Cushing 67.05 1.74 Opec 11 58.40 .35 24/8 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude + 1.8 mmbls Gasoline - 3.2 mmbls Distillates + 1.4 mmbls Import 10.6 mmbopd Refineries 93.4% Gasoline Demand 9.5 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd I was Way Off on the Gasoline numbers and they are due to the lower runs as demand is still only about 1.5% over last year same time. Distillates just keep building, remember they were the reason and still are that which drives much of the Contracts.... Do not look past the build in Crude.. Gasoline demand will drop as Summer starts waining, so itīs the Heating Oilīs that will be in focus.. Thursdayīs Natural Gas numbers will be interesting on the back of the latest price surge. 24/8 Steel Price - Baosteel Corporation China Chinas biggest steel company has followed the smaller ones by also reducing itīs steel price, by up to 15%.. This then the biggest reduction to date by all Chinese Steel Companies.... 24/8 Oil Price - Contracts The contracts are again up and one of the reasons is that a Kuwait Petroleum - Q8 Refinery in Rotterdam, is down for repairs.. The refinery in question produces 25.000 bopd of Bitumen Derivatives... Storm worries in the Carribean are also on the cards.. 24/8 Site Updates - an Apology Site updates are sporadic at the moment. I apologise for this. I thank you for your Patronage! 24/8 Closing Oil Price 23/8 Nymex Crude 66.24 .53 IPE Crude 64.65 .15 Dated Brent 65.24 .67 WTI Cushing 65.31 -.41 Opec 11 58.15 .05 WTI Cushing ie Spot WTI Crude decoupled from the WTI Contracts. Make a note.. 24/8 Cricket - The 2005 Ashes Series Australia 1 - England 1 - Drawn 1 Trent Bridge... 25/8 - 29/8 Australia 2 - England 1... 24/8 USA - Natural Gas NG topped $10 and why? Well it ainīt a shortage of storage and it ainīt the lack of product.. Look at the factīs on the ground and then build your own conclusion. 23/8 Oil - Statistics from the USA out 24/8 I expect, Crude + 1.5 mmbls Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls Distillates + 2.5 mmbls Import 11 mmbopd Refineries 96% Gasoline Demand 8.5 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd Natural Gas + 65 billion cubic feet Note that Natural Gas has driven the market for the last week. Yet we will see a storage build... The US is in the midst of Storm Season so itīs all about the weather.. The rest is Risk! $65 Crude is just Crazy but - Hey donīt look a gift horse in the mouth!! 23/8 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG I see this puppy at 90 SEK this year... Why? Because thatīs what happens in the Weird and Wacky World of Upstreamers. Also there are Fundamental Reasons why for.. 22/8 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Nigeria Off and running.... 12/8 WTI Front Month - A FishNetŪ Perspective - Daily Balance - What Balance? 12/8 Cricket - The 2005 Ashes Series Australia 1 - England 1... And England early doing fine in the third.. Donīt worry mate the Aussies are just doin the old "Rope a dope".... 12/8 Oil - Statistics from the USA Again a build in stocks of Crude and Distillates. Refineries were down but they made more Gasoline, becasue there seemīs to be today an ample supply early of Distillates the product that drove the contracts earlier because there was not enough of the Stuff. Imports are good and demand well itīs up and nothing strange about that but - Yet no ques at the pumps, not one Industry not getting the energy it needīs.... OK this is the Supply side of the Equation and there Demand is building across the Globe but not even the IEA can give it to us in definitive numbers or can they?... Risk is driving the market more than the Supply/Demand problem yet in Oil they are one and the Same.. 4/8 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Report Look for a "better than" Report, with interesting "bits".. 4/8 Oil & Gas - Spot Prices See the Major Correction Building!? 4/8 Closing Oil Price 3/8 Nymex Crude 60.86 -1.03 IPE Crude 59.65 -0.97 Dated Brent 60.12 -0.03 WTI Cushing 60.86 -1.03 Opec 11 54.64 -0.49 3/8 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude + 0.2 mmbls Gasoline - 4.0 mmbls Distillates + 1.5 mmbls Import 11 mmbopd Refineries 95.8% Gasoline Demand 9.5 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd Well as I stated a tricky week. I was way off on the Gasoline numbers... Remember that the US Labor Day Holiday is on September 5 and that is pretty much the end of The Driving Season.. Yet I stress Distillates again for 11 weeks and running, saw a Build in Storage and yet have been the Prime reason for the Crude Contracts inflation level....? Imports where ample and Refineries run well. Next week will also see effect of the recent storms but it must be said that the incursion on the stats will be as nominal as this weekīs... 3/8 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG - Report A high oil price is no garantee for profit in the Upstream part of the Oil Patch... TYK has operations that at the moment cost money and a small but steady production. Look for the confirmation of proven and probable reserves for Oudeh in Syria to change things going forward. Consider the $1.3 million paid in Syria.. Q4 Report 3/8 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX Think on this... With The US quashing the Chinese purchase of UNOCAL, the playing field has moved and China will all the more look elsewhere. Non-US companies with interesting prospects in potentially very oil-rich countries are going to benefit... 3/8 Oil - Statistics from the USA I expect, Crude + 1.5 mmbls Gasoline - 0.5 mmbls Distillates + 2.0 mmbls Import 10.7 mmbopd Refineries 96% Natural Gas + 55 billion cubic feet Gasoline Demand 9.1 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.5 mmbopd Post Storm numbers are always tricky but again there will be a build in Distillates and they are the key going into the colder season. Despite warm weather and 9 month high Natural Gas Prices look for a further build in storage. 3/8 Closing Oil Price 2/8 Nymex Crude 61.95 .06 IPE Crude 60.62 .18 Dated Brent 60.92 .22 WTI Cushing 61.89 .29 Opec 11 55.13 .01 2/8 WTI Front Month - A FishNetŪ Perspective - Daily
2/8 Desire Petroleum - Falkland Islands - Buys Operator Licence - Tranche F The Board of Desire Petroleum said Tuesday that, as of Aug. 1, 2005, the Company has acquired a 100% interest in Tranche F in the North Falkland Basin and has become the Operator of the tranche. Tranche F covers 534 km(2) and lies immediately to the south of Tranches C and D, which are already operated by Desire. Interpretation of the 2D seismic coverage of Tranche F has identified two significant prospects, which have been named Helen and Jayne, both of which have the potential to contain several hundred million barrels of recoverable oil and add substantially to Desire Petroleum's exploration portfolio. All commitments for the first stage of exploration on Tranche F have been fulfilled and, as of Nov. 25, 2005, the licence enters the second exploratory period, of seven years, during which there is a commitment to drill a well. 2/8 Cricket - The 2005 Ashes Series Australia 1 - England 0... 4th to the 8th of August at Edgbaston get ready for 2 - 0.... 2/8 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX Transocean Sedcoīs Rig will be a little longer incoming - no matter. The 80 SEK to 100 SEK target for the stock this year is more and more looking rather too Conservative... 2/8 Sudan Dangerous Times... This is a big test for everyone. Is the Peace bigger than one man? 2/8 The Price of Oil The death of Saudi Arabian King Fahd should really not have any effect on the Contracts as the succesion has been long since secured and assured, yet in a speculative market like the one we are seeing today. Anything will drive the Contracts North. It is more and more apparent that $40īs is the Fair Price of WTI today - the rest is Hype and as such - Donīt buy the Hype! Well that is Buy it but Beware.... and be Quick on the Sell Button. Production is at a six year high and OK Refining in the market especially the USA has problems but once again Donīt Buy the Hype! The Era of of Cheap Oil is over say some.. What we are heading into is a period of cheaper oil due to the simple fact that Oil today is too expensive. There is an imbalance in the market and as all markets sooner or later find that which is lost ie Balance - So again the Oil Market will find itīs own equalibrium.. Also yet again do not forget that the the major part of price at the pump is Your Governments Fault not OPECīs, NONOPECīs or any Oil Producer. Taxation is Driving your Petrol Price to the Sky, not Peak Oil, not Refining, not Transport - itīs TAXATION! In case you forget the facts....