Greywolf







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20/7 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude - 0.9 mmbls Gasoline + 1.3 mmbls Distillates + 2.3 mmbls Import 10.8 mmbopd Refineries 92.8% Gasoline Demand 9.5 mmbopd Distillate Demand 4.0 mmbopd Storm Season makes for difficult analysis of the storage and import level. Import was higher than I expected and Refinery runs lower but the important one is Distillates and despite low refinery output storage levels keep going up.... The case for the current Contango in the futures is quickly running out, demand is revised down and stocks of winter heating oil are increasing every week...
20/7 IRAQ - Western Desert There are interesting "Oil Fields" in Iraqīs Western Desert.....
Dennis shut in a total of 5.3 million barrels of oil and 23.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas, and as such was not the Storm he was billed to be. Yet look for Crude storage to drop the coming weeks. For the products the Storm made negligable inroads. Storm Emily had an even smaller effect on Oil deliveries.. Just a note!
20/7 US Storage of Natural Gas Please again recall that Natural Gas is used to cool most of the US Midwest during Summer and Heat the same during Winter. The weather has been hot and the price of British thermal units has been heading down... OK summer is less far from over yet!..... Again a Sanity check!!.....
19/7 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Nigeria Transocean Sedcoīs 709 Semi Submersible Rig is getting ready to do itīs thing...
19/7 Steel China has built up a huge surplus of Steel stocks... The Country is on the way to becoming a net Steel Exporter... Please note my earlier post on the subject..
19/7 Closing Oil Price 18/7 Nymex Crude 57.32 -.77 IPE Crude 56.99 -.62 Dated Brent 56.48 -.35 WTI Cushing 57.32 -.77 Opec 11 52.38 -.06 Again remember that OPEC 11 contains the following Oils - Saharan Blend (Algeria), Minas (Indonesia), Iran Heavy (Islamic Republic of Iran), Basra Light (Iraq), Kuwait Export (Kuwait), Es Sider (Libya), Bonny Light (Nigeria), Qatar Marine (Qatar), Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Murban (UAE) and BCF 17 (Venezuela). Graph shows OPEC 7 and of late OPEC 11...
18/7 USA - Storage levels Recall the build in stocks across the board last week...
18/7 WTI Front Month - A FishNetŪ Perspective - Daily
18/7 OPEC - IEA Both organisations are scaling down the demand numbers for 2005... OPEC by 150,000 bopd and The IEA by 200.000 bopd... Also check the Crack Spreads in the US... As I have repeatedly said the Supply & Demand Structure does not warrent the current Oil Price....
9/7 STRIKE OIL LIMITED STX:ASX One to watch real close.. Site should be up. Strike Oil Limited 6/7 Saudi Aramco - Oil Prices to Asian Buyers Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, released the prices for its crude oil for export to Asia in August. The following table gives the differentials in relation to benchmark prices, the month-on-month change and the degrees of gravity as defined by the American Petroleum Institute. Variety API August July Change ---------------------------------------------- Super Light 50.6 5.50 4.70 0.80 Extra Light 38.5 3.35 2.95 0.40 Arab Light 32.5 0.85 0.85 0.00 Arab Medium 31 -1.55 -1.05 -0.50 Arab Heavy 27 -4.55 -3.45 -1.10 ---------------------------------------------- Saudi Aramco's crude oil prices are determined by destination, with prices for its Asian customers expressed as a differential against the average of Oman and Dubai grades, the two Arabian Gulf benchmarks used by Asian Oil Traders. Note the decline for the heavier grades..
6/7 Oil & Gas - Spot Prices
6/7 WTI Front Month - A FishNetŪ Perspective - Daily - Weekly
6/7 OPEC OIL BASKET They used to be 7 now they are 11... The new OPEC Basket contains - Sahara, Minas, Iran Heavy, Basra Light, Kuwait Export, Es Sider, Bonny, Qatar Marine, Arab Light, Murban and BCF 17 Furrial. It closed Tuesday at $53.90.. The reason for the change in participating oils was simply the fact that the 7 gave a wrong picture of the market. Please note that the "new oils" are more Sour than the original 7...
6/7 Closing Oil Price 5/7 Nymex Crude 59.59 .84 IPE Crude 58.29 .35 Dated Brent 57.76 .60 WTI Cushing 59.50 .75 Opec 11 53.90 .49 Itīs much to do about Cindy and Dennis. The US Storm Season is here...
5/7 Oil - Statistics from the USA out on 7/7 I expect, Crude + 1.0 mmbls Gasoline + 1.5 mmbls Distillates + 2.0 mmbls Import 11.3 mmbopd Refineries 97% Natural Gas + 80 billion cubic feet Gasoline Demand 9.5 mmbopd Distillate Demand 3.8 mmbopd Again Surprise is the name of The Game - As I expect stocks to build across the board I am out on a limb, yet as stated before I just donīt buy the picture painted by the market... If I am wrong well at least I am not sitting with expensive Crude Contracts! Fear of a lack of Heating Oil is driving the Crude Market - Just check out the OECD Stats for the Product... See my Point!?
5/7 OECD - Some Facts - Updated 14 June 2005 5/7 US Storage of Natural Gas I expected the increase to be 95 billion cubic feet and as it came to pass it turned out to be 92 billion cubic feet... The important fact is that the storage is 198 billion cubic feet above last year and 272 billion cubic feet above the 5 year average.
5/7 Bertil Lundin - Brother of Adolf Lundin My Deepest Condolences go out to the Lundin family.
30/6 Joint Oil Database Initiative Again it is stalled... The Riyadh based IEF, International Energy Forum has again put off the launch of a global program to give data on the global energy picture. JODI it is hoped will give more market transparency when it comes to the on the ground actual Supply & Demand situation, something that is sorly needed...
30/6 USA - FOMC - Q2 Today is one of those interesting dayīs - The FOMC is expected to raise rates by 25 points and the same day seeīs the close of Q2... A liquidity heavy day especially in late trading.. Many Hedge Funds are behind the Curve at the 6 Month Mark, makes for jittery Fund Managers. A thought.. The Oil Contracts have been the Darlings of the market and considering the above well letīs just say that there is $10 to $12 worth of Speculation in the Contract Price today. Along with perhaps the usual $10 Geopolitical Risk Premium... The S&P 500 is sitting at about 1% down for the year, Hedge Funds donīt make any money at that level... Have a good day!
30/6 US Storage of Natural Gas - Correction from 29/6.. Ahead of Todays numbers which I expect will again show an injection into storage of around 95 billion cubic feet it might be well to check the chart... Please recall that Natural Gas is used to cool most of the US Midwest during summer and heat the same during Winter. The weather has been hot and the price of British thermal units has been heading down... OK summer is far from over yet! Sanity check!!
30/6 WTI Front Month - A FishNetŪ Perspective - Daily - Weekly The Area of Balance is in the $40īs....
30/6 Closing Oil Price 29/6 Nymex Crude 57.26 -.94 IPE Crude 56.37 -.81 Dated Brent 55.44 -1.11 WTI Cushing 57.26 -.94
29/6 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude + 1.1 mmbls Gasoline + 0.3 mmbls Distillates + 1.7 mmbls Import 11.0 mmbopd Refineries 96.3% If the Crude Contracts go up after this then the only thing happening is that the price bubble keeps getting bigger.... I did write "Crude is yet again seen to decline yet I have a feeling we could be in for a surprise there." More volatile trading ahead...

29/6 Oil - Spot Prices
29/6 US Storage of Natural Gas Ahead of Thursdays numbers which I expect will again show an injection into storage of around 75 billion cubic feet it might be well to check the chart... Please recall that Natural Gas is used to cool most of the US Midwest during summer and heat the same during Winter. The weather has been hot and the price of British thermal units has been heading down... OK summer is far from over yet! Sanity check!!
29/6 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG - Naiem-1 I was clearly wrong about this one..
29/6 Closing Oil Price 28/6 Nymex Crude 58.20 -2.34 IPE Crude 57.18 -2.12 Dated Brent 56.56 -1.91 WTI Cushing 58.20 -2.34 US July natural gas fell 16.2 cents to close at $6.976 per million British thermal units. New Front Month August closed at $7.073.
28/6 White Nile - Sudan White Nile has raised Ģ7 million ($12.8 million) through a private placing. Money to be used for exploration and working capital....
28/6 Oil - Statistics from the USA out 29/6 I expect, Crude - 1.0 mmbls Gasoline + 1.2 mmbls Distillates + 2.0 mmbls Import 10.8 mmbopd Refineries 95.5% Crude is yet again seen to decline yet I have a feeling we could be in for a surprise there. If this will have any affect on the Crude Contracts is another matter as the Oil Price today is totally Crazy!
28/6 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG "Tanganyika's overall strategy over the next 3 to 5 years is to focus on growth of cash flow per share and net asset value. The basis of the Company's long range plan is to increase shareholder value through systematic, scaled production increases and paced capital expenditures to minimize exposure to outside capital requirements." Nice and slow.... Just the way we like it. Build shareholder value while creating another Lundin Success!
23/6 Steel Please note that a few minor things have happened since April.. The current demand from China when it comes to Steel is wayning a bit for instance....
23/6 OPEC - The Seven Oils... Actually it is six plus one.. Algeria's Saharan Blend, Indonesia Minas, Nigeria Bonny Light, Saudi Arabia Arab Light, Dubai Fateh, Venezuela Tia Juana and Mexico Isthmus. With Mexico Isthmus the sole Non-Opec oil in the bunch..
23/6 Coalbed Methane - Natural Gas from Coal and Shale I wrote earlier about Methane, at the time it was mainly centered on Deep Sea Methane - Methane Hydrates a huge resource still out there just waiting for the technology.. Yet now it is Coalbed Methane... The potential in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin alone is estimated to be in the order of 100 trillion cubic feet of gas.... Producing Natural Gas from Coal
23/6 Closing Oil Price 22/6 Nymex Crude 58.09 -.95 IPE Crude 56.58 -.92 Dated Brent 56.12 -.40 WTI Cushing 57.84 -1.06
22/6 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude - 1.6 mmbls Gasoline + 0.2 mmbls Distillates + 1.6 mmbls Import 10.2 mmbopd Refineries 94.8%
22/6 Oil - Spot Prices
22/6 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX Nigeria coming Up!!
22/6 Cricket - The 2005 Ashes Series Australia is in England to beat them again! Itīs all about the Ashes.. It should be an interesting Summer even for those of us caught in the Winter of the South. July 21 sees the first Test at Lords..... Sorry Mate its 8 Ashes in a Row!!!... For more info on what itīs all about see The ICC Site
22/6 Closing Oil Price 21/6 Nymex Crude 58.90 -.47 IPE Crude 57.50 -.82 Dated Brent 56.52 -.70 WTI Cushing 58.90 -.47 Note that AUG05 is the new Front Month Crude contract and it ended the day at $59.04 down -84 cents...
21/6 Sudan Petronas Aims to Raise Oil Output in Sudan Malaysia's national oil firm Petronas said Tuesday its joint venture company in Sudan aims to raise its output to 1 million barrels of oil a day by 2007. "Hopefully by 2007, Sudan will increase its production from 300,000 barrels per day to 1 million, " Petronas' Chief Executive Mohd Hassan Marican said at a seminar on joint business alliances in Islamic countries. Petronas, or Petroliam Nasional Bhd., is jointly developing Sudan's oil resources with China National Petroleum Corp. and Sudan's National Oil Co. The venture has been in place since 1997. Petronas is also working on developing the oil industry in Chad, Hassan said in a speech, but he did not elaborate.
21/6 Oil - Spot Prices
21/6 Oil - Statistics from the USA 22/5 I expect the following, Crude - 1.0 mmbls Gasoline + 0.5 mmbls Distillates + 3.0 mmbls Import 11.0 mmbopd Refineries 97% Natural Gas + 96 billion cubic feet
21/6 Closing Oil Price 20/6 Nymex Crude 59.37 .90 IPE Crude 58.32 .56 Dated Brent 57.23 .36 WTI Cushing 59.37 .90
21/6 World Proven Gas & Oil Reserves Letīs have a look at the facts.. North America 1984 10.51 Tcm 101.1 bbls South and Latin America 1984 3.23 Tcm 36.3 bbls Europe and Eurasia 1984 42.02 Tcm 96.7 bbls Middle East 1984 27.40 Tcm 430.8 bbls Africa 1984 6.22 Tcm 57.8 bbls Asia Pacific 1984 7.02 Tcm 38.1 bbls Total 1984 93.89 Tcm 761.6 bbls Total 1983 92.68 Tcm 723.0 bbls North America 1994 8.42 Tcm 89.9 bbls South and Latin America 1994 5.83 Tcm 81.5 bbls Europe and Eurasia 1994 63.87 Tcm 80.3 bbls Middle East 1994 45.56 Tcm 661.7 bbls Africa 1994 9.31 Tcm 65.0 bbls Asia Pacific 1994 10.07 Tcm 39.2 bbls Total 1994 142.89 Tcm 1017.5 bbls Total 1993 141.08 Tcm 1023.6 bbls North America 2004 7.32 Tcm 61.0 bbls South and Latin America 2004 7.19 Tcm 101.2 bbls Europe and Eurasia 2004 64.02 Tcm 139.2 bbls Middle East 2004 72.83 Tcm 733.9 bbls Africa 2004 14.06 Tcm 112.2 bbls Asia Pacific 2004 14.21 Tcm 41.1 bbls Total 2004 179.53 Tcm 1188.6 bbls Total 2003 175.78 Tcm 1147.7 bbls
21/6 The true cost of Oil - The tax on One Liter of Gasoline.. With WTI at $60 it may be interesting to recount the facts... Donīt forget the VAT part of the Tax Structure moves up with the base price ie a higher Oil Price more bucks to the State... Austria 69% Belgium 75% Denmark 73% Finland 78% Germany 74% Greece 66% Ireland 72% Italy 74% Luxembourg 74% Netherlands 74% Portugal 75% Spain 68% Sweden 74% UK 81% USA 46% Australia 42%
20/6 The Oil Price going Forward.. $60 Oil - Big Warning! There are no fundamentals for this price level even in "lala land"... I hear voices from the late 90īs... "Donīt worry darling keep the Kristal coming me and the boyīs are big in the Oil Sector!"... Itīs the IT boom all over, yet this is far worse as Oil is a real commodity. You canīt beat the market for sure and contracts up at $60 are a sell or steal yet - who is going to keep buying at these levels? OK so the sky is not falling and the world keeps growing albeit at a smaller pace than expected but hey we still got China and India... Global growth though is again revised down.. But donīt worry "Cause darling were in the Oil Sector!".. Again where are the lines at filling stations and where are the Diesel Trucks stalled by the roadside for lack of fuel? Where is the one single customer on this planet not getting the Hydrocarbon Product of his choice? OK Nigeria is on the map and RDS shut a 67.000 bopd refinery in Texas and donīt forget itīs storm season in the LOOP area of the US, yet this is always the case at this time of year. So the question again is - is global demand as big as the market assumes? With pretty dicey statistics from most of the world it comes down to perception. Whenever economies head into a crisis it is usually on a wave of Perception. Housing, property, banking, IT etc are all sectors that have brought the market grief due to a Lack of Clear Perception.. As stated before - "I am afraid that we are going to find ourselves in Q3/Q4 all dressed up and with nowhere to go"...
16/6 Oil - Spot Prices
16/6 Why Pay for Something that is - Free.... Talk to the World on your Mobile Phone
16/6 ARGOS to Explore in North Falklands Basin Argos Resources Ltd. will shoot a marine 3D seismic survey next year on North Falkland basin acreage under an exploration license extended until November 2006 by the Falkland Island government. The survey will cover structural and stratigraphic prospects not tested in a 1998 drilling program in the Tranche A area north of the Falklands. A drilling campaign with a minimum of three wells is scheduled to begin early next year on Tranche A, in which Argos holds a 100% interest. Argos is going to operate in the Tranche held earlier by Amerada Hess. A bit of old news but there it is.
16/6 Oil - Statistics from the USA The wisdom in the market is that the problems are going to turn up in Q3 and Q4.. The stats this week saw a healthy build in the Distillates + 2.5 mmbls...... Also please note again that there is plenty of Crude in the System. Diesel is now the product that is driving the Crude Contracts soon it will be Motor Oil SAE 40 or.... The Oil Market is in a Frenzy...... Beware! Working gas in storage increased 73 billion cubic feet last week to a total of 1.96 trillion cubic feet. Stocks are 216 billion cubic feet higher than last year at this time and 294 billion cubic feet above the 5 year average of 1.67 trillion cubic feet.
16/6 Closing Oil Price 15/6 Nymex Crude 55.55 .57 IPE Crude 54.50 .77 Dated Brent 53.31 .37 WTI Cushing 55.57 .57
16/6 Sudan - Darfur region - Cliveden Sudan - ABCO Corporation Oil in Darfur could be the instigator to Peace for the region as the list of interested explorers reads like whoīs who in the Oil Patch.. If the Rebels in the region are smart they would go down the path taken by Khartoum and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) in southern Sudan... A massive Oil find in Darfur could be just the thing for the region...
15/6 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude - 1.8 mmbls Gasoline - 0.9 mmbls Distillates + 2.5 mmbls Import 10.6 mmbopd Refineries 96.7%
15/6 BP - Statistical Review of World Energy 2005 Download the complete report
15/6 Desire Petroleum - Falkland Islands International well construction performance expert The Peak Group has secured a contract with Desire Petroleum and Rockhopper Exploration for the well design and drilling project management of a planned three-well programme in the North Falkland Islands basin.
15/6 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX What more to say than this stock is - Hot!
15/6 Oil - Statistics from the USA I expect the following, Crude + 1.5 mmbls Gasoline + 2.5 mmbls Distillates + 2.0 mmbls Import 10.5 mmbopd Refineries 95.5% Natural Gas + 70 billion cubic feet
14/6 WTI Front Month - A FishNetŪ Perspective

10/6 Sudan - Darfur region - Cliveden Sudan - ABCO corporation Friedhelm Eronat goes Sudan with Chinese backing.. Note that with every new deal in the Sudan LUPEīs block just adds in value..
10/6 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Seven Heads - Roscarberry area, North Celtic Sea basin A good deal..
10/6 Tenke Mining - TNK:T Donīt forget this one... Tenke Mining
10/6 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX I have earlier said - 80 SEK to 100 SEK by the end of the year. Reason.. Fair Value!
10/6 Closing Oil Price 9/6 Nymex Crude 54.28 1.74 IPE Crude 53.82 1.71 Dated Brent 52.43 2.43 WTI Cushing 54.28 1.74 Her name is Arlene and she is a Tropical Storm heading to the Caribbean and Western Cuba.. The first of the Summer Storms are on the way. In the real world though there is no shortage of Oil or Products but traders will worry about just anything.
9/6 - Oil A thought regarding Statistics I pondered on the 28/4 about Statistics and it seems a few other folk are doing the same. The coming G-8 meeting has Oil Statistics on the agenda, finally... G-8 have strangely been working on stats from The International Energy Forum an adhoc group situated in Saudi Arabia. Yet now it seemīs at last someone has come to the conclusion that Oil is important so the Joint Oil Data Initiative is going to be upgraded to be more than a funny acronym. JODI is even going to go high tech with a website with oil statistics for the G-8 group... Incredible. Not a day too soon! By the way US Natural Gas Storage came in at 112 billion cubic feet...
9/6 Opec's May output tops 30 mmbpd Opec Crude output climbed above 30 million barrels per day in May for the first time since October 2004.
9/6 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX LUPEīs stock price has of late followed the price of WTI slavishly, I expect a decoupling going forward. In LUPEīs favour I might add...
9/6 How Saudi Arabia can Double Oil Production Saudi oil production capacity could grow from its current 11 million b/d to over 23 million b/d to meet world demand according to Saudi Aramco's President and Chief Executive Officer Abdallah S. Jumah, confounding sceptics who believe that the Kingdom may be approaching, or even past, peak production. Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Ali Al-Naimi: "There are great opportunities to increase the Kingdom's producible oil reserve by about 200 billion barrels." In a speech delivered at Rice University in Houston Mr Jumah said that the Kingdom is uniquely positioned to step up and deliver, because of its reserves and resources, to consider raising its production by such a margin. The company is currently expanding its production, processing and transport infrastructure to allow for a 12 million b/d capacity which includes a commitment to maintain 1.5 million to 2 million b/d of spare production capacity. At the end of 2004, Crown Prince Abdullah inaugurated Saudi Aramco's Qatif project, north of Dhahran. This has increased production capacity by 800,000 b/d. Some 500,000 barrels derives from onshore extraction and 300,000 barrels from the offshore Abu Safah field which is part of the Qatif production project. Increased production capacity has been helped by completion of other recent projects in the South Riyadh oilfield, Shaybah, as well as Qatif. A project in the Haradh field to produce another 300,000 b/d will be completed in 2006 while 500,000 b/d is expected to come on stream from field developments at Abu Hadriya, Fadhili and Khursaniyah in 2007. New production at the Khurais field north of Saudi Aramco's principal Ghawar field will increase output there to 1.9 million b/d by 2009. 200 billion barrels more According to Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Ali Al-Naimi: "There are great opportunities to increase the Kingdom's producible oil reserve by about 200 billion barrels either through new discoveries or increasing the percentage of extractable oil from known reserves." Saudi Aramco says it has a conservative approach to reservoir estimates and depletes its reverses at a far slower rate than major oil companies a policy which is designed to provide a healthy cushion between its production and its maximum sustainable capacity. Dr. Nansen Saleri, Saudi Aramco's oil reservoir manager has said that, "Saudi Aramco's production capacity can easily be increased to sustainable rates of 12 million to 15 million barrels-a-day if global markets demand the extra crude." With 27.62% of the world's proven oil reserves, Saudi Arabia possesses the lion's share of all the oil producing countries crude according to BP's latest annual statistical survey. About 130 billion barrels of this is developed and mostly in production. Saudi Aramco's plans call for the replacement of 15 billion barrels of reserves from 2005 to 2009 at a rate of about 3 billion barrels a year. "We believe very confidently that we are looking very conservatively upwards of 150 billion barrels over and above the 260 billion barrels that we carry as proven reserves right now. That is 60% more and that's the underlying message we want to convey," Dr Saleri told the Centre for Strategic and International Studies last year. Saudi Aramco considers that the huge acreage in Saudi Arabia's Rub al-Khali Empty Quarter desert region in the south-east offers big potential for new oil finds as well as the northern basin towards the northern border as well as the offshore Red Sea basin.
9/6 Oil - OECD - US
9/6 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG I like it when people belive in the thing they work for.... Gary Guidry has since May 16 bought stocks in the company to the tune of $152.400 at a unit price of $7.00 Given that he also has Options to the tune of $2.070.000 at a unit price of $6.90. Gary made a good deal there..
9/6 Closing Oil Price 8/6 Nymex Crude 52.54 -1.22 IPE Crude 52.11 -1.02 Dated Brent 50.00 -1.86 WTI Cushing 52.54 -1.22 Again keep an eye on Dated Brent. There is a lot of Sour Crude in the system...
8/6 Oil - Spot Prices
8/6 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude - 3.0 mmbls Gasoline - 0.1 mmbls Distillates + 1.3 mmbls Import 10.2 mmbopd Refineries 95%
8/6 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Nigeria OML 113 - Aje Field And the partners are, Challenger Minerals Inc Howard Energy Co Inc Providence Resources Plc Sovereign Oil & Gas Syntroleum Corporation Yinka Folawiyo Petroleum Company Limited
8/6 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG We are even closer to a positive - Report from the Field Time...
8/6 Closing Oil Price 7/6 Nymex Crude 53.76 -.73 IPE Crude 53.13 -.54 Dated Brent 51.86 -.55 WTI Cushing 53.76 -.73 Note Dated Brent..
7/6 EIA - Short Term Energy Outlook out 16.15 GMT June 7 Release
7/6 Oil - Statistics from the USA 8/6 I expect the following, Crude + 2.0 mmbls Gasoline + 0.5 mmbls Distillates + 2.5 mmbls Import 10.9 mmbopd Refineries 97% Natural Gas + 110 billion cubic feet The US weather is expected to be warmer than usual going forward and then some. Also thingīs to consider - summer storms.. This could affect loadings. All the while storage numbers are above average for both Crude and Products. Crude stockīs are at a six year high and the price in the contracts is kept afloat by worries about Distillates for the coming winter.
2/6 Oil - Statistics from the USA Crude + 1.4 mmbls Gasoline + 1.3 mmbls Distillates + 0.7 mmbls Import 10.7 mmbopd Refineries 96.2%!! Heating Oil... This could be the one that makes me a liar about the Oil Contract Price.. Yet...

2/6 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG We are close to a - Report from the Field Time...
1/6 Oil Price The contracts are in a corrective mood. As there are no fundamental reasons for $54 oil today as very little has changed since the contracts were at the recent lows - a correction is all this is. Sorry guys and dolls the fundamentals for $54 oil just ainīt there... The market is continually pushing the period for the Surprise Event growth in demand. Right now it is Q3 and Q4 when "hold on too your hats folks demand is going to explode!"... OK from where? China and India are ofcourse the prime places but what the rest? I am afraid that we are going to find ourselves in Q3/Q4 all dressed up and with nowhere to go, which will lead to a collapse in the contracts as per usual when it comes to Oil - Up like a Swan down like a Duck.. Or something akin to that analogy. Where are the ques at filling stations? Where is one single industry not producing to capacity for a lack of energy from oil? The market is in a "demand" mantra mode and that is a very bad place to be for a lot of folk who buy the mantra and forget the source. Donīt buy the hype! Oilers do very well at $35 oil, if that will ever again be a price is doubtfull but keep it in mind. The 40īs are good enough.. Donīt forget that Nuclear Power is going to be a very big thing in China going forward and the US, Finland, India, France, etc. Sweden closes Barsebäck and buys "Green Power" from Oil and Coal Powered units in Poland.... OPEC stays itīs hand in June - quotas and overproduction to be left as is in expectation of Q3/Q4...
1/6 Oil - Statistics from the USA out 2/6 I expect the following, Crude + 1.0 mmbls Gasoline + 1.0 mmbls Distillates + 1.5 mmbls Import 10.5 mmbopd Refineries 93.5% Natural Gas + 105 billion cubic feet
31/5 OPEC - The Cut that does not Bleed... I expect OPEC not to cut production in June, or if they do it will be token. Think on this, OPEC as many others are today pumping Sour Crude to the marketplace in great numbers a Sour Crude less wanted for the Summer season. Where is all this Sour Crude/Heating Oil going to go - come Winter?
31/5 The EU vote I find it Ironic from a historical perspective that it is, France who puts the first nail in the Coffin of the politicians biggest Wet Dream - EU the Super State! The spectrum of reasons of why people voted "NON" seem to be as varied as the number of voters, yet one would think that the future of more bureaucrats who for the most part would not be accountable to anyone would be reason enough. Yet Not! Free Trade, Free movement of Goods and Services, Free movement of Labour, Freedom to Chose, They all fade into the fog. Ironic yet not.
27/5 White Nile WNL:LSE - Sudan As stated earlier... On February 16, White Nile announced that it had an concluded an agreement with the government of south Sudan and its national oil company, Nile Petroleum Corporation to acquire a 60% interest in the 65,700 squre kilometer Block Ba, which contains part of the Muglad basin in south Sudan. Under the terms of the deal White Nile will issue 155 million new shares in the company to Nile Petroleum as settlement for its 60% stake in the Block Ba. Under the terms of the deal the former rebel movement of southern Sudan will get 50% of White Nile, which is run by the former England Test cricketer, Phil Edmonds.
27/5 Closing Prices for Oil on the 26/5 Nymex Crude 51.01 .23 IPE Crude 50.16 .09 Dated Brent 49.06 .37 WTI Cushing 51.01 .23
27/5 Lappland Goldminers - GOLD:SAX I have stated on a Swedish site that I did not belive this company to be worth the watch. And I have retracted the same statement - Because I Was Wrong!!! Check this Puppy Out!! Lappland Goldminers
27/5 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG Good things are going to happen under the guidance of Gary Guildry... Enough said!
26/5 Oil BPīs Caspian pipeline is on tap yesterday and pumping oil past the Middle East. Memorial Day Weekend is just around the corner in the US and it will set the tone for the much talked about "Driving Season", as if there is no driving done during the rest of the year... Warren Buffet is investing $5.1 billion in Western State Utility... Q2 is the lean season for Crude all the way since the year 2000. So many parts that are supposed to make up the whole. The fact is that $50 Crude is too much today. The World is amply supplied with Oil and OPEC will show this in June by reducing quotas, ie the overproduction. There are many who see Q3 and Q4 as the surprise event "thatīs when demand will explode" sure. Buy a ticket! Yet for the trader in Oil the current price level is not bad in anyway itīs just that you have to have an eye on tomorrow. With the fluctuations in the price structure it is - close all short term positions at call mode - . Long term Oil is the place to be - until they invent the alternative energy source.... By the way US Working Gas Storage came in at +93 billion cubic feet..
26/5 Why Pay for Something that is - Free.... Talk to the World
26/5 Closing Prices for Oil on the 25/5 Nymex Crude 50.98 1.31 IPE Crude 50.07 1.25 Dated Brent 48.69 0.55 WTI Cushing 50.78 1.61
25/5 OECD Economic Outlook No. 77 - May 2005 Interesting reading... The Report
25/5 Closing Prices for Oil on the 24/5 Nymex Crude 49.67 +.51 IPE Crude 48.82 +.45 Dated Brent 47.47 +.41 WTI Cushing 49.17 +.51
24/5 Oil - Statistics from the USA out 25/5 I expect the following, Crude + 3.0 mmbls Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls Distillates + 0.5 mmbls Import 10.7 mmbopd Refineries 93% Natural Gas + 90 billion cubic feet Please recall that US stocks of Crude are at a six year high...

20/5 Lukas Lundin - Bio and an Interview Well worth a read for those into the Lundin Groups Companies... Read it Here
20/5 Australian Oilers If you have a serious look the API grades throughout the World it very quickly becomes apparent that Oilers from OZ are up there.. Just a hint...
20/5 Closing Prices for Oil on the 19/5 Nymex Crude 47.00 -.25 IPE Crude 47.88 -.27 Dated Brent 46.74 .05 WTI Cushing 47.60 .35 Dated Brent and WTI Cushing are the Spot Prices for the two grades. Spot Prices give a picture of loadings for the next 14 - 21 days. I beliive that this period is shorter and 14 days is the outside mark in reality. By the way the US Natural Gas Storage I thought would be 65 billion cubic feet turned in at 90 billion cubic feet. That gives storage levels 22% over last year... Natural Gas in the US is a source for heating and cooling and especially for cooling during the summer months in rural and agricultural areas ..
19/5 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG - Oudeh Bid The company again turned down a bid for part of itīs operations. To the tune of 1 Billion SEK for Oudeh... The potential buyers this time - no it was not the Chinese, they were African.... And they wanted to pay about $1.46 per barrel 2P, in this 23 mmbls are proven and 81 mmbls are probable... The 3Pīs are just that Possible 76 mmbls.. Anyone still doing the Maths....
19/5 White Nile WNL:LSE - To resume trading after Sudan oil deal As stated earlier on this site... British-based oil explorer White Nile said on Thursday it plans to buy an oil concession in Block Ba in Southern Sudan in return for 155 million of its shares and expects its shares to restart trading on May 23. Shares in White Nile soared after listing but were suspended in February pending more information of an agreement to acquire a disputed stake in an oil production area from the government of South Sudan.
19/5 Sanity back in the Oil Price - A good thing for Oilers... Commodity investors are a fickle bunch for the most part and times of imbalance create worry and that is never a good thing. With Sanity back in the Contracts the share prices for the Oilers should benifit by enlarge. The stocks that hold their ground during the correction are set for a second kicker when the Contracts again rise, for whatever reason. With Oil the energy source on a global basis responsible for about 96% of all transportation needs and no real alternatives on the horizon - Oil is the place to be for the astute investor. The rest is all about the normal mechanics of buy low sell high...
19/5 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Q1 Report Itīs all about size... The size of your production. LUPE is growing the money side of the equation ie production BOPD - itīs that simple. The exploration side is something the company has always been inspired to pursue yet itīs the bankable dollars that create value and here the coming years are going to see a very goodly return. The market has to get used to the fact that LUPE is generations away from the early days of Adventurous WildCats.... And in this the daily fluctuations in the Price of Oil will become less important as any good Oil Company CEO worth his salt is also a good judge of the Futures Market. Also donīt forget the bits... In this the bits are the up and coming drills in regions where oil in place is allready established. The drills in France, Norway and the Netherlands are all in oil producing areas. The chance for success is therefore pretty high. The decision to leave Sudan in Sudan is a good one as it is only going to get worse there before it getīs better... I hope in this I am very wrong.
19/5 Closing Prices for Oil on the 18/5 Nymex Crude 47.25 -1.87 IPE Crude 48.15 -1.19 Dated Brent 46.69 -1.05 WTI Cushing 47.25 -1.72 Nymex Crude has traded at $46.97 on Access...
18/5 Oil - Statistics from the USA out And the report is in at, Crude + 4.3 mmbls Gasoline + 1.1 mmbls Distillates - 0.2 mmbls Import 10.9 mmbopd Refineries 94%
18/5 Closing Prices for Oil on the 17/5 Nymex Crude 48.98 .01 IPE Crude 49.34 .25 Dated Brent 47.74 .72 WTI Cushing 48.97 .36 Electronic trading has long since made daily closings rather irrelevant yet these are the numbers. I expect these to be lower in a week or two...
18/5 Oil - OPEC - Donīt forget IRAQ... OPEC has signaled that it can increase production. Well it probably can yet the "hole card" is Iraq. OPEC does not include Iraqīs production in itīs estimates. With Iraq back on the bookīs production could climb by up to 3 mmbopd pretty much overnight. OK Iraq is in shambles but beyond the media froth the Oil Industry is rebuilding the infrastructure and there are many reasons why the country would, should and could get back into the serious oil production business.
17/5 Oil - Statistics from the USA out 18/5 I expect the following, Crude + 2.5 mmbls Gasoline + 1.0 mmbls Distillates + 2.0 mmbls Import 10.1 mmbopd Refineries 92.2% Natural Gas 65 billion cubic feet
16/5 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX And the "bits" keep rolling in... Calgary based Sterling Resources has signed an agreement with Lundin Heather, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lundin Petroleum, for Lundin to acquire a 40% interest in blocks 210/25b, 210/29 and 210/30 in the UK's North Sea. Licence Data 1 Licence Data 2
16/5 Sanity Returns to the Oil Market OPEC and I are in agreement.. I jest ofcourse, but the Oil producers and I have for some time said that there is enough Crude in the System. What we now have to look for is the Right Price. As stated earlier I belive $42 is Fair Value. A trading range right now however is $45 to $50 as it takes the market time to adjust yet - Down is the true direction for the Oil Price. There are some worrying events in this as US Hedge Funds are doing poorly and in April showed the worst figures for 2 years. A Warning! Commodities have been the Fundīs place of placement in the wake of a falling Dollar. This is going to change and could do so pretty damned quickly.
16/5 Oil Dated Brent 46.73 Is the mid-morning price of Spot Brent..
13/5 Commodities Oil is retreating down toward a Fair Value and that may be as low as $42 all depending on the rest of the sector. For metals Steel and Copper are having a hard time of it. The Worldīs major Steel producers are all gearing down their estimates for growth and for the most part decreasing production to meet easier demand. The Steel industry does not see demand picking up until Q4.. Copper prices are in the same doldrum. Doom and Gloom? Well not really yet I do not belive the hype about sudden out of the blue mega growth from China and India.. Also do not forget the US Dollar and the fact that a lot of Hedge Funds are retreating from Commodites as the Dollar gains in Value. China and the revaluation of the Yuan... It is going to happen but not in the dramatic way a lot of folk think. The Chinese are not known for changing the basis for economics over night. I am looking at a period of weakness in the Commodity Sector and hopefully without too many surprise events to the downside. Oil is ofcourse always prone to react to Geopolitical Events like a Terrorist Strike etc but right now the Fundamentals are Negative for Oil.
13/5 Scandinavian Gold Ltd - SGL:TSX As stated before. Check it out. The stock is dead but I think they may have something here.. Scandinavian Gold
13/5 Storage of Crude and Products in the USA

13/5 Closing Prices for Oil on the 12/5 Nymex Crude 48.54 -1.91 IPE Crude 48.34 -1.73 Dated Brent 47.49 -1.20 WTI Cushing 48.54 -1.91 Also I expected a US Natural Gas storage increase of 50 billion cubic feet it came in at 54 billion cubic feet...
12/5 Desire Petroleum - Falkland Islands A report from one of the Island "crew"... Desire Petroleum, has identified seven drilling locations on Tranches C and D, in the North Falkland Basin and it said Thursday that at four of these locations, dual targets have been identified, resulting in eleven prospects in total. These prospects have a potential of over two billion barrels of recoverable oil. Further recent interpretation of the 3D seismic data has yielded a further five prospects. Three of these can be tested at the drilling locations already identified. In addition, numerous less well defined leads have been identified which will require further work before they can be moved to prospect status. Desire CEO Ian Duncan said: "The more we work on the 3D seismic data, the more prospectivity we see in this basin. The identification of these five new prospects means that in the planned three well drilling campaign, all of the wells will have dual objectives." Desire holds a 100% interest in 3,650 sq km in the North Falkland basin in tranches C, D, I and L and owns 12.5% of tranche F, operated by Canada's Talisman Energy.
12/5 Closing Prices for Oil on the 11/5 Nymex Crude 50.45 -1.62 IPE Crude 50.07 -1.36 Dated Brent 48.70 -1.95 WTI Cushing 50.45 -1.62
11/5 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX All things considered present and near future I see this stock at 80 SEK to 100 SEK before the end of the Year.
11/5 US Statistics a Comment There is enough Crude in the System.. Sooner or later the market is going to have to concede to that fact. The World is not running out of oil - just yet. Face the fact. Please note that the IEA is revising down itīs demand estimates by 0.3 mmbopd due to lower than expected growth in the EU, US and China - thatīs pretty much the World. Also OECD inventories increased to 53 days of cover from 51 days a year ago.
11/5 A pre US Statistics thought Even if a power outage at the ConocoPhillips refinery gave the Crude contracts a short lift Tuesday the fundamentals say something else. If the statistics are in the region I predict things can get real ugly real quick.
11/5 Closing Prices for Oil on the 10/5 Nymex Crude 51.73 -.34 IPE Crude 51.43 +.14 Dated Brent 50.65 +.28 WTI Cushing 52.07 +.04
10/5 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Report 18/5 "This is gearing up to be one Operational Mother of a Report, and bits".. TBA3 & TBA4 - and the bits are starting to drop in..
10/5 Saudis Have Oil for 140 Years, says Aramco... There is no reason to fear a shortage in oil supply. This is what guarantees Abdallah Jum'ah, president of the greatest oil company in the world, Saudi Aramco, who was recently in Brazil to participate at the 3rd Forum of National Oil Companies, together with another 22 companies in the sector, in Rio de Janeiro. Saudi Aramco is a state owned company from Saudi Arabia which, as well as the Middle East, has operations also in the United States, Greece, Philippines and Korea. Jum'ah was also in São Paulo, where he held a lecture at the Armando Álvares Penteado University (FAAP). At the lecture to the pupils at FAAP, the executive encouraged the work Brazilians are carrying out in the alternative energies sector. As well as being the greatest alcohol producer in the world, producing 15.1 billion liters and exporting 1.8 billion liters last year, Brazil is starting to operate a project for the production of biodiesel. "There a place for alternative energies. All types of energy should be supplied to the world," he said. He stated, however, that the motivation in the search of these new energies should not be the shortage of oil. "It is not tomorrow that the oil is going to finish, nor in ten years," he affirmed. According to Jum'ah, the current reserves in Saudi Arabia, which are of 261 billion barrels, would allow Saudi Aramco to maintain a production of 15 million barrels per day for at least the next 50 years. That, if new reserves aren't found. "Whenever you explore your oil, you also find new reserves. And still we have many areas in Saudi Arabia that have not been fully explored. I think that the bottom line is that there is no shortage of oil in Saudi Arabia or in the world", he stated. According to the executive, in the next 25 years Saudi Arabia expects to reach reserves totaling 460 billion barrels, which could sustain production for another 140 years. Saudi Aramco has the maximum sustained capacity to produce 10.5 million barrels per day, and produces 9 million barrels daily. Together, the countries in the Middle East hold 70% of the world reserves. For Jum'ah, the idea of the oil ending is a market game to keep the prices high. "What happens is that there is a low capacity for refining the heavier crudes." According to the executive, as well as speculation, this and other factors have also contributed to raise the oil prices. "Also you have geopolitical problems in Iraq, in Venezuela, Nigeria," he states. Also, the environmental regulations, according to the executive, make things more difficult for refiners, making the commodity more expensive. "They don't have enough money to improve their refining capacities." ANBA - Brazil-Arab News Agency
10/5 Older material from Greywolf.Se I hope to have some of the material up soon.
10/5 Oil - Statistics from the USA out 11/5 I expect the following, Crude + 3.0 mmbls Gasoline + 1.5 mmbls Distillates + 1.5 mmbls Import 10.5 mmbopd Refineries 92% Natural Gas 50 billion cubic feet Last week the build was larger than most expected though not this site... I belive we could be in record number territory on the Imports. Also please note that the US retail price for Gasoline is the lowest for 6 weekīs. Increased demand coming up or "we just donīt have the cash to drive the car"... US economic numbers are again looking up so maybe there is demand building to meet the current over-production.. If not.....
9/5 Storage of Crude and Products in the USA

4/5 World Proven Gas & Oil Reserves Letīs have a look at the facts.. North America 1983 10.4 Tcm 95.2 bbls South and Latin America 1983 3.18 Tcm 33.7 bbls Europe and Eurasia 1983 40.48 Tcm 100.1 bbls Middle East 1983 26.38 Tcm 396.9 bbls Africa 1983 6.29 Tcm 58.2 bbls Asia Pacific 1983 5.95 Tcm 39.0 bbls Total 1983 92.68 Tcm 723.0 bbls North America 1993 8.75 Tcm 91.0 bbls South and Latin America 1993 5.54 Tcm 79.1 bbls Europe and Eurasia 1993 63.62 Tcm 80.4 bbls Middle East 1993 44.43 Tcm 660.1 bbls Africa 1993 10.01 Tcm 60.9 bbls Asia Pacific 1993 8.73 Tcm 52.0 bbls Total 1993 141.08 Tcm 1023.6 bbls North America 2003 7.31 Tcm 63.6 bbls South and Latin America 2003 7.19 Tcm 102.2 bbls Europe and Eurasia 2003 62.30 Tcm 105.9 bbls Middle East 2003 71.72 Tcm 726.6 bbls Africa 2003 13.78 Tcm 101.8 bbls Asia Pacific 2003 13.47 Tcm 47.7 bbls Total 2003 175.78 Tcm 1147.7 bbls
4/5 Brent - WTI A question asked.. Why is Brent trading above WTI? Simply Brent is by amount a larger contract traded and as supply to the US of Light Sweet is ample and then some itīs all about loadings and there Brent ie Sour Crude is in greater demand in the market where it is traded. Just figure it out.. Champagne is cheaper than Beer. What does that tell you?
3/5 Falkland Oil & Gas FOGL:LSE Falkland Oil and Gas announces Tuesday that it has completed its current 9,450 km 2D seismic data acquisition programme over most of its licence area. The initial interpretation of the preliminary processed records from the survey has proved encouraging and greatly exceeds the Company's initial expectations. Falkland Oil & Gas
3/5 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Report 18/5 This is gearing up to be one Operational Mother of a Report, and bits.. And there is more to come as the company as stated before is set to grow from within.
3/5 Oil - Statistics from the USA out 4/5 I expect the following, Crude + 2.5 mmbls Gasoline + 1.5 mmbls Distillates + 1 mmbls Import 10 mmbopd Refineries 92% A larger build in Gasoline could send the Crude contract down towards $47 during one dayīs trading.
2/5 What right price for Oil? The decline in the contracts has brought the price down into what should be itīs trading range ie $45 to $50. Statistics can send the price into downward spirals much like at the end of last week and with Imports and Refinery runs at near top levels in the USA donīt be surprised. OPEC is today producing around 2 mmbopd above the set quota and this into a system that is well stocked with Crude. Remember the lead time for Oil transported from the Gulf is six weekīs so even a reduction in OPEC production today does not take effect until late June. In the larger picture there are other factors such as what does OPEC do if the price keeps falling? China and the upcoming revaluation of the Yuan ie a float, and this in a currency that could be overvalued to the tune of 30% today.. The US Fed is another consideration where - Inflation hunting is the name of the game and a short term 25 point increase is in the air.
28/4 White Nile WNL:LSE - New Sudan Deals and re-start of trading Interesting goings on...
28/4 Oil A thought regarding Statistics Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged more than 20.3 million barrels per day, or 0.7 percent more than averaged over the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.2 million barrels per day, or 1.5 percent above the same period last year, while distillate fuel demand has averaged over 4.2 million barrels per day, or 2.1 percent above the same period last year. Kerosene-type jet fuel demand is up 1.2 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year. - Source EIA Very precise as always. This then the latest data from the USA. With the great demand for Oil in the world and the need for accounting where and how much there is needed where are the Statistics from the rest of the World? Try if you can to get a picture of the supply situation in the EU for instance. The EUīs Eurostat Agency has a site that is supposed to hold information about Crude and Product stocks. Good luck finding it... Itīs there ofcourse yet happy hunting.. China and India are said to be the "new paradigm" in regards to Oil and its consumption, as they are for sure. Yet where are the Real statistics regarding this.. One of the best sources for information concerning World Oil is the OPEC Monthly Oil Report, and in this it is not strange that the Worlds foremost purveyor of Oil would be the best source for information... Yet OPEC has its Agenda as thus everyone else in the Oil Patch. With Oil such a primary concern for the world where are the weekly detailed MEDIA FRIENDLY reports from the EU from China, India from well anywhere else than the USA? Just a thought...
27/4 Oil - Statistics from the USA a Comment Larger than expected Crude stocks and Import - the third largest Import amount ever. The surprise event.. along with a small draw in Gasoline. Refineries are steady at 91% to 92%. This sayīs yet again there is enough Crude in the system and Gasoline stocks will increase or hold at above average levels going forward. With the increase in Imports and Refiners operating with no large production difficulties the Crude contracts do not merit todays levels.


26/4 Oil - Statistics from the USA out 27/4 The following are expected, Crude - 1.5 mmbls Gasoline + 0.5 mmbls Distillates + 0.5 mmbls Import 10 mmbopd Refineries 92% Yet I belive we could be in for a surprise event... As the Crude contracts are driven by Gasoline this product has a lot to live up to in the form of fundamentals, please recall that I have stated that there is no lack of product in the real market ie at the petrol stations all across the world. It is the fear of "what if" and "perception" that is driving the contracts. If the Gasoline stocks go up by more than expected and here there are some who see a build of + 1.5 mmbls then Crude is going to be in for a beating. Even the Saudis feel $50 oil is too much... All short term positions in Oil are in - Sell at Call Mode.
26/4 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan - Correction! Time for LUPE to ditch the remaining 24.5% in the country... Was all that became of a longer posting that for some obscure reason was lost in transmission. The post in whole is as follows. Time for LUPE to ditch the remaining 24.5% in the country... Or is there a real chance for peace in the Sudan this time? LUPEīs Exploration Production Sharing Agreement is for up to 25 years. Within the EPSA 6 years are set aside for exploration and in this almost 5 years have passed since itīs signing. Ofcourse renegotiation is a factor but with the Sudan now in a new phase of development will the peace hold? The South has 6 years to make itīs mind up if it wants to be an autonomous State. In this time many factions who up until now have been busy fighting will see the chance for real power and real wealth. If the peace accord can hold then there are great things to be done in the country and there LUPE has a great advantage as the company has been there through the bad years. Yet with the Sudans particular regional politics one wonders if it will not become the playing field for larger interests and with major Chinese Oil company representatives on nearly every Street corner today maybe it would be better for LUPE to take the money and run. An interesting test to the actual on the ground willingness of the parties to reach a real peace is the deal between White Nile and the SPLM (for those who follow VCW see my postings, in Swedish concerning White Nile). Not only are there internal problems with this deal it also involves Franceīs Total. Yet this is the first overt oil-deal made by the rebels and as such if it can go through there is much to be played for, if not well it could be the instigator to far worse things. The bottom line is that the Sudan has huge potential yet we have waited and waited and the clock is ticking.. Great for the country, greater still for itīs people if peace can be had yet when there really is something to play for thingīs can go bad very quickly. Also the logistics.. the logistics, itīs an expensive place to do business. I apologize for the missing text..
25/4 Peak Oil - Sure it will happen but not just yet.. The term Peak Oil is gaining ground and as such this is a good thing on the whole yet as in all thingīs there will always be the fanatics and even so regarding Peak Oil. “The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” - Sheikh Zaki Yamani Sums up the situation very neatly. Yes oil will become obsolete as a major power source but before such time mankind and history which has seen akin events will have through the marketplace found a viable and real alternative. Today however all the alternatives are pipedreams in the heads of enviromentalists and politicians who for the most part know more about saving their own jobs than they do about reality.
25/4 Storage of Crude and Products in the USA

Note that the demand for Gasoline in the US is only 1.2% above last years numbers. Gasoline is driving the Crude contracts on a very thin line of demand increase.... CPI, storage data and the price at the pump can very quickly change these numbers into the negative. Yet there is always the ever present China...
25/4 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan Time for LUPE to ditch the remaining 24.5% in the country...
25/4 USA - Strategies for Increasing Domestic Oil Production Studies that examine the potential to economically recover the oil remaining in mature fields in the United States using carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) technologies - to the tune of 43 billion barrels. Interesting reading.. The Report
25/4 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG - Naiem-1 Four out of Four...
21/4 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG - Insider Activity Latest 10 Insider Filings as of April 20th, 2005 The List
21/4 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG - West Hoshia-1 - Naiem-1 - Fadl-1 It can be very trying - investing in upstream commodity companies as there are periods of frantic activity followed by well periods of nothing. This is about to change, yet again.. One small word of advice would be that as this company is listed in Canada and Sweden there are great differences between the two market places. Canada and investors on the exchanges there have a long history of investing in companies like this one. The Swedish market place is perhaps a bit too impatient... All good things come to those who wait...
20/4 Scandinavian Gold Ltd - SGL:TSX A company that I know very little about. Yet it sounds interesting. Just check it out!
19/4 Digital Oil Fields.. The digital oil field of the future has taken shape in ChevronTexaco Corp.'s (CVX) new headquarters in Houston since early January - and it looks like the set of a Cold War melodrama. In a screen-filled war room, technicians monitor real-time data flowing via fiber-optic cable and satellite links from sensors behind the drill bit below a Gulf of Mexico platform. By looking at the acoustic, temperature and pressure information, engineers can almost hear and feel the pulse of the drill, and receive e-mail alerts of any emergency to their Blackberries if they're out of the office. Developments like these could help add 125 billion barrels to global reserves in the next 10 years, according to Cambridge Energy Research Associates. CERA analysts predict digital oil fields could improve reserve recovery by 6%, raise production rates by up to 10% and cut operating costs by up to 25% through better reservoir management and reduced on-site crews. The technology would be a boon for oil companies being pressured to find and pump more oil amid a shortage of qualified labor. The Article
19/4 Oil - Statistics from the USA... The following are expected, Crude + 2.0 mmbls Gasoline + 0.2 mmbls Distillates + 1.0 mmbls Import 10 mmbopd Refineries 92%
19/4 Kimberley Diamond Company KIM:ASX Rumour sayīs they have a new exploration success. I can not find any corroboration regarding this so it is just that a rumour. Kimberley Diamond Company
19/4 Cairn Energy PLC UK CNE:LSE This is one hot puppy! Cairn Energy
19/4 Interoil Corp - IOL:TSX Interesting bunch.. Set to start drilling in PNG ie Papua New Guniea on 22 April - Black Bass Project. Itīs a shallow drill 1.200 meters... IOL is trying to set up a vertically integrated company which means exploration, exploitation, refining and retail distribution. PNG is an interesting place...
18/4 Tanganyika Oil - Q3 Report - A Comment It is always difficult to assess a pure upstreamer as criteria can change very quickly yet the picture as far as TYK is concerned getīs a bit clearer for every month going forward. The Q3 report is straight forward reading a loss in Q2 is turned around and the rest is easy enough to grasp. The important part is the outlook and there you have the current drilling program with "three out of three" hits and a better than average chance evolving that it will be "four for four". Grammatically Incorrect but itīs just fun to say.. The company earns revenue from itīs producing fields and the price obtained for the Sour Crudes is between $15 to $20 below Brent. This should however be seen in the light of the current price of Brent at around $50 pbo. The company has on average recieved Brent minus $6 for itīs oil but the oversupply of Sour Crude in the market has pushed this level down. This is compensated for by the higher contract price - zero sum gain. Even so the true measure of an exploration company is itīs success in the field and this is where TYK is building itīs own advantage. It is far easier to seek financing if you can show "bankable" exploration reports. In this most oil companies are despite the bull run in the oil contracts still only valued at a relative contract price of $30 to $35 WTI.
18/4 Oil, Copper, Aluminum High Grade Copper front month shows a 70% Sell recommendation on leading Short and Medium Trend Indicators. For Oil the Short to Medium Term Indicators are 60% Sell. Long Term is buy or Hold. Aluminum is 60% Sell in the Short Term and 50% Sell in the Medium Term, Longt Term 48% Sell.
18/4 Storage of Crude and Products in the USA
15/4 Tanganyika Oil - Q3 Report THIRD QUARTER REPORT February 28, 2005 The Company's revenue amounted to $6.0 million (2004 - $4.7 million) for the nine month period ended February 28, 2005 and $1.6 million (2004 - $1.7 million) for the third quarter. The Company's profit after tax amounted to $0.240 million (2004 - $1.37 million loss) for the nine month period ended February 28, 2005 and $0.9 profit (2004 - $0.5 profit) for the third quarter. The Company's profit per share was $0.006 (2004 - $0.045 loss) for the nine month period ended February 28, 2005 and $0.025 profit (2004 - $0.017 profit) for the third quarter. Q3 Report
15/4 The true cost of Oil.. Many blame OPEC and oil producers for the high price of petrol at the pump ie filling stations, with little cause.. The taxation on oil and oil products in the West is totally out of control and has little if anything to do with the fact that oil is a finite resource but more to do with - tax the population as much as you can. Austria 69% Belgium 75% Denmark 73% Finland 78% Germany 74% Greece 66% Ireland 72% Italy 74% Luxembourg 74% Netherlands 74% Portugal 75% Spain 68% Sweden 74% UK 81% Such is the tax on one liter of Gasoline in the EU. USA 46% Australia 42% “The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” - Sheikh Zaki Yamani In the meantime tax the hell out of everyone you can...
15/4 Sweden - Refining Oil - Hypocrisy justified.. Sweden is a good example of an energy deficient country doing that which is needed. The country is on the sly building up one of Europeīs biggest refining capacityīs in the shadow of one of Europes highest taxes on produced fuels. Environment is here apparently a secondary factor or is it just good business for the State (albeit in bed with others) to get in on the ground floor.. In this Sweden has a very vocal lobby in the government against fossile fuels ......
15/4 Lundin Petroleum - LUPE:SAX A period of organic growth.. LUPE is a flagship and as such it has come a long way. Just a casual glance at the depth of operations sayīs middle level oil company coming up. Now if only they could get their hands on a refinery... Thatīs where the big buckīs are going to be going forward. Above whishful meanderings aside LUPE is set to report itīs best operational year to date this year.
15/4 Fox Resources - FXR:ASX The companyīs shares will be halted today Friday and trade will resume Tuesday 19/4. The reason Ruth Well.. Fox Resources
15/4 Tanganyika Oil - Q3 Report.. Expected to on the whole be OK.. Due to the massive overproduction of Sour Crude in the world due to the price bubble in the contracts the company has not received the best price for itīs oil - one thing to consider..
14/4 The price of Oil - Cooper contracts a warning.. On the back of this weekīs statistics from DOE/API the price retreated further and lookīs set to continue down during the coming period. The reason being the price imbalance in the market. Oil with itīs unique importance for the global economy can not be priced out of balance for too long without the effects of this showing up in different parts of the economy. A rather simplistic example is that of consumers in the US who are not driving to the Mall to shop as much due to the high Gasoline prices and as the US economy is consumer driven that is a warning signal. The recent WTI $58 is just too much there are no fundamentals for that price - today. It can in this be argued with merit that the US consumer should get used to the high price of Gasoline. The Fed is another indicator that gives early warning for an imbalance. 15/4 Michigan Consumer Index April 88,7 expected 91,5.... A very early indicator of where demand is heading are the Copper contracts and they have congruent with oil dipped for the last three trading dayīs due to decreased demand from China. The Copper contract is in this a very reliable indicator. As Steel does not have futures contracts as such it is worth having an eye on the major steel companies aswell. WTI should trade in the range of $45 to $50 and it is very possible that it can go below $45 depending on the running supply and demand factors. Any geopolitical occurence will ofcourse affect the price out of this band yet $45 to $50 for the coming monthīs is a plausible range. See also earlier posts on this..
13/4 Strategic Petroleum Reserves The US we all know has one to the tune of 700 mmbls. Major oil companies have them for their own use and they usually hold about 20 to 30 dayīs worth of production. More and more SPRīs are in vouge. China plans to start filling itīs 150.000 mmbls reserv later this year. Even so the educated guess sayīs they are doing so allready. India is the next to join the club with help from Saudia Arabia, a reserve of 38 mmbls is set to be instigated 2006.
12/4 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG - West Hoshia-1 - Naiem-1 - Fadl-1 Donīt expect too much from Fadl-1..
12/4 Giants Reef - GTM:ASX Chariot.. Giants Reef limited
11/4 Oil - Statistics from the USA... Out on 13/4 the following are expected, Crude - 2.5 mmbls Gasoline + 2.0 mmbls Distillates + 2.0 mmbls Import 10.2 mmbopd Refineries 93% The ones to watch are Gasoline and Refineries..
11/4 The Price of Oil.. Even though the price of Crude has retreated down from the new ATH (in non-corrected dollars) there is still latitude or the lack of for it to continue down. Crude is being held up by speculation as stated but also by Gasoline. If Gasoline spiked last week and the stockīs continue to build then the last leg for Crude is gone. OPEC has said it will and can, and it is also saying and rightly so that there is enough Crude in the system.. All that is holding the Crude contracts up is Gas..
11/4 Legend Mining - LEG:ASX Check it out especially concerning the GIDGEE prospect. Nice gold grades.. Legend Mining Limited
8/4 New refinery to open in the USA.. For the first time in 29 years a new refinery is to be built in the US. It will sit on the Arizona-California border to refine oil into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. The EPA has approved the site to be built and it is estimated to be completed by 2007. Arizona Clean Fuels Yuma Refinery
7/4 The Price of Oil.. The US crude oil inventories are now at a three year high.. And they are building. Also the Saudis are saying "You want the oil, we will pump it.." At the high end of the oil contract structure it has been speculative funds that have been buying and these funds are increasingly starting to leave the oil patch. Refining capacity in the US ran att 93% last week and even if imports fell some due to bad weather they are set to continue at around 10 mmbopd. Also there is an over-production of sour crude in the market which has pushed down the price for these oils yet the producers of sour still have to produce which then only builds the excess capacity further. US crude oil inventories are now at a three year high.....
5/4 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG - West Hoshia-1 - Naiem-1 Hydrocarbons in West Hoshia-1 makes the current program a "three for three" deal. Naiem-1 is being drilled in an interesting region that has geology that gives the prospect "four for four" more than a chance..
5/4 Oil - Statistics from the USA... Expected are the following, Crude + 2.5 mmbls Gasoline - 1.0 mmbls Distillates + 0.5 mmbls Import 10 mmbopd Refineries 91%
5/4 The Price of Oil Is driven by traders and not the fundamentals in the market. There are no lines of cars at gas stations in the USA. All customers around the world are getting their oil. Not one single country has reported that they have not recieved the oil they wanted, not one single customer has reported that they have not recieved the crude or product as asked for. What is more a worry is the fact that large pension funds in the USA are buying oil contracts at this level. It's the IT bubble all over again.. For sure the price of oil will increase as the years go on but the current level has nothing to do with the fundamentals in the market, it is however driven by fears of the "what if" and that is a motivator that very quickly can vanish. The correction that is coming will not be pretty for a lot of folk who believe the hype... With respect to the International Energy Agency who have gone off the deep end in analysis I have decided to increase the Harley to 103 cubic inches...
3/4 Methane Hydrates Check it out..
17/3 Tanganyika Oil - TYK:TSX - TYKS:NMG - West Hoshia-1 We are looking good... ie a *G*
Older material from Greywolf.Se It is the intention to post as much of the older material from the site as is possible. Most it must be said is lost.
Falkland Islands - A new venture The region is again the object of interest and as this site kept track of Sodra, Lasmo, Shell etc the last time around it will follow the "new crew". Falklands Oil Desire Petroleum on SI Falkland Oil & Gas
A few to Watch.. Oldies it should be said as those who followed the site way back when should have these on their screen.. TNR Gold Corp Commander Resources Tenke Mining Atacam Minerals