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2/10 Australia - Rugby League - The Sea Eagles vs Warriors - NRL Grand Final - Update Itīs Grand Final Sunday at Sydney Football Stadium and Manly are going to go all the way!!! Sea Eagles 24 - New Zealand Warriors 10... Big Party in Manly!!! 30/9 GMT 19.28 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - LUP:TSX - Adolf Lundin Adolf Lundin died on this day 5 years ago after having battled with a severe form of leukemia over a number of years. I am more than certain that Mr Lundin would have been very proud of "his family" today.. 30/9 GMT 10.12 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - LUP:TSX - Norway - Avaldsnes field Hibernia, Snorre, Ekofisk, Dukhan, Troll... A very select club of classic oil fields has just begotten a new member in the form of Avaldsnes.. In fact Avaldsnes is as it seems in the top 50 oil fields in the world.. The best part is that this is just going to get better and better... 28/9 GMT 21.00 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - LUP:TSX - Norway - Avaldsnes field This site estimates that the mean recoverable reserve is set to increase from 250 mmboe to 500 mmboe.. However as the company usually is conservative in itīs projections the prognosis may come in lower.. Yet this field is a work in progress and is far from being adequately identified as to itīs true potential which most probably lies somewhere closer to 1000 mmboe.. 26/9 GMT 19.10 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - LUP:TSX - Norway - Avaldsnes field - 16/2-7 Look for the recoverable oil numbers to be considerably increased from the earlier estimate of 100-400 mmboe.. 24/9 GMT 00.24 The Markets Not much to say really... If you care to peruse the site you will find that I called all of this mess years ago. The failings of Central Banks to get a grasp, the EU for simply being incompetent, the sad belife that China will save us all etc, etc.. The strategy has held ie buy on the swings and take a win however small and then start again, Cash is King! This weekendīs meeting of the potatoe-heads will lead nowhere and as stated the break up of the puss filled infection called the EU is the only thing that will get the global markets out of the funk they are in.. 20/9 GMT 04.21 EU - Italian Downgrade The S&P downgrade apparently comes as a surprise to many..? Moodyīs announced this possible action in May and in the ratings game that means Heads Up, anyone of the larger firms can take the first step... This site gives the EU & the Euro six months at the outside.. 18/9 GMT 23.23 EU - The Euro - Why so strong? Given all the problems the EU are going through you would think the € would be worth mud.. The fact is that there is a lot of money, and I mean a huge lot of money riding on the €.. Individuals, institutions, funds, companies, countries etc have all to differing levels bought €īs to hedge against the US$.. This is why the € is being so heavily supported, at the moment, this will change... 16/9 GMT 01.12 EU - Central Banks - Lotīs of Dollars OK so someone has taken a lesson from 2008.. Yet flooding the banking system with cash only takes care of the liquidity problem but it does nothing to solve the problems that are underlying - like solvency and the fact that most of Europe simply can not borrow itīs way out of crisis. The effect of this measure will be short lived and the fundamentals still apply, you canīt fix them with a few "happy pillīs"... 15/9 GMT 20.57 Falkland Islands - Rockhopper Exploration PLC - AIM:RKH - Oil Discovery The latest appraisal well on the Falklands Lion discovery Rockhopper Exploration says the well has encountered up to 26 metres of net pay. Rockhopper said the 14/10-7 Sea Lion appraisal well – the fifth well drilled on the Sea Lion main fan complex - has encountered net pay of 25 metres in the main Sea Lion fan complex and a further one metre of net pay in lower sands. The gross reservoir in the SLMC is 35 metes where average porosity is 22% and a maximum of 27%. This latest well was drilled 3.3 kilometres north west of the 14/10-2 Sea Lion discovery well to a total depth of 2,696 metres with the Ocean Guardian semi-submersible and will now be plugged and abandoned. Once complete at 14/10-7, Rockhopper says the Ocean Guardian will move to drill 14/10-N - which is being classed as an exploration well on the Caspian and Kermit oil prospects, located 4.1 kilometres south east of the original Sea Lion discovery. 15/9 GMT 02.39 EU - France - Germany - Greece Merkel, Sarkozy and Papandreou, a little chat on the phone.. and all is well in the World.. Indexīs rise stocks are back in play, problem solved... Yeah right!! 15/9 GMT 00.35 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - LUP:TSX - Norway - 16/2-7 The sidetrack in well 16/2-7 is it seems set to further confirm the recent findings... Just a reminder, 14/9 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude - 6.7 (API - 5.0 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.9 (API + 2.8 mmbls) Distillates + 1.7 (API + 0.07 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories - 4.6 mmbls Crude Import 8.5 mmbopd Gasoline Import 0.7 mmbopd Refiners 87.0% Imports to the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) were understandebly lower due to the storm season. 13/9 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude (API - 5.0 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 2.8 mmbls) Distillates (API + 0.07 mmbls) Refiners 83.9% -1.8% Import of Crude was down by almost 3.0 mmbopd.. Retail gasoline demand is down again, 25 weeks in a row with this years "driving season" being the weakest since 2005.. 11/9 GMT 16.31 EU - France - Bank Downgradeīs Look for several tier one French banks to be downgraded by Moody's. The reason being exposure to bad debt ie Greece but also other EU countries in strife.. And as this site has pointed out the banks are not showing their real valuations in respect to writing down the full amount of debt.. See earlier posting. 11/9 GMT 02.38 EU - The History of Monetary Unions The Euro project is far from the first soon to have failed attempt at creating a Monetary Union in Europe.. For some light Sunday reading I would suggest looking up the following projects, The Latin Monetary Union - dreamt up by the French, obsessed, as usual, by their declining geopolitical fortunes and monetary prowess in 1830. Scandinavian Monetary Union - formed by Sweden (1873), Denmark (1873) and Norway (1875). The Zollverein (Customs Union) was established in 1834 to facilitate trade by reducing its costs. It did rather well actually for awhile. 9/9 GMT 00.14 USA - Sorry Mr President Nice speech and you are certainly a good orator, a leader no not so much! 8/9 GMT 03.37 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - LUP:TSX - Norway Buy quality buy Lundin Petroleum.. In Norway this company has reserves par none, bigger than Ben Hur! 8/9 GMT 03.33 Australia - Unemployment Up 0.2% from 5.1% to 5.3% from a month earlier.. Look at the States where the jobless rate is rising and itīs where resources are the name of the game.. The world is heading into Recession at least amongst the major players and the damned Europeans with their heads in the sand arenīt helping one bit.... 7/9 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude (API - 3.0 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 0.9 mmbls) Distillates (API + 4.0 mmbls) 5/9 GMT 01.43 Central Banks - Australia RBA This week is Central Bank Week.. There is a 25% chance that the RBA will see the truth out there and cut rates by 0.25%, yet donīt hold your breath.. Unfortunatly this site belives the Bank will stay on hold and therefore will have to cut more aggressively and sooner not so far down the road... 2/9 GMT 04.32 Oil - The Contracts - USA - Tropical Depression 13 TD13 has already closed down 6% of oil supply and 2.5% gas supply in the Mexican Gulf.. Despite this Brent's premium against WTI was $25.62 at Thursday's close, the reason problems in the North Sea and Nigeria. 2/9 GMT 02.24 EU - The ECB & False Illusions According to Jean-Claude Trichet the ECB has huges reserves of cash on hand and can bail out pretty much any European country or group of countries.. At the same time banks can secure their "bad" loans to say Greece at full value with the ECB. Banks in their turn are only lowering the value of their holdings as far as assets in the crisis countries by about 40%.. Net effect the ECB is saying it can meet any credit crisis in the banking sector and the banks are inflating their own valuations.. A Recipe for Disaster? No ofcourse not, just ask Jean-Claude Trichet!!... 2/9 GMT 01.52 World - The Markets - Exeding lowered expectations Most of the major stock markets are keeping up apperances simply because statistics that are published are beating lowered expectations.. For sure it makes for great trading when as I have pointed out earlier the stats beat the expectations no matter how low ie "the news was bad but not as bad as expected".. Yet this is a precursor to a major fall and global markets can easily fall on pretty much any catalyst. It is easy to get caught on the wrong side of this type of market. Add to this that nothing has changed in the EU or the US, Australia is more and more struggling under high interest rates a housing market that is anemic at best, and resource prices that are falling.. China which produces all of the goods the global customers are buying less of is the next shoe to drop.. Trade it but beware! 31/8 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude + 5.3 (API + 5.1 mmbls) Gasoline - 2.8 (API - 3.1 mmbls) Distillates + 0.4 (API + 0.3 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 4.3 mmbls Crude Import 9.6 mmbopd Gasoline Import 0.6 mmbopd Refiners 89.2% -1.1% Tropical Depression 13 is heading into the Gulf at a leisurely pace and as a "short storm" it may do no damage to any of the 4.000 rigs operating in the region, yet a storm is a storm is a storm... 26/8 GMT 21.01 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - LUP:TSX - Norway - Avaldsnes 16/2-7 This one lookīs like a another winner... 25/8 GMT 02.18 Australia - Rugby League - The Sea Eagles vs Storm - updated Brookvale Oval Friday 26/8.. This is the Big One!! 18 - 4 to the Eagles.. 24/8 GMT 20.49 Gold - Margin Increase The CME Group have increased margin requirements on Gold - again.. It raised the amount of money needed to trade gold contracts by 27% to $9.450 per 100 ounce contract. This site has never traded a commodity based on a margin requirement.. 24/8 GMT 20.45 USA - The Fed - QE3? This site belives far too many are betting on Bernanke and The Fed to deliver QE3 or QE2.1 etc.. QE1 & QE2 did not work for the economy ie Main Street USA and a further stimulus package is going to do no more.. 24/8 GMT 19.28 Gold Not a commodity this site trades all that often as itīs a non-yield investment and itīs always competing with better alternatives, yet the run up to $1880+ has ofcourse made it attractive on the road up.. It is however in for a correction, given that nothing geopolitical happens. Technical levels on the way down are $1725 and if this is breached $1660 is the next major support level.. Note that Gold has not reached the 200 MA level down for the last 1100 trading days.. 24/8 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude - 2.2 (API - 3.3 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.4 (API + 6.4 mmbls) Distillates + 1.7 (API + 2.0 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 4.0 mmbls Crude Import 8.8 mmbopd Gasoline Import 0.9 mmbopd Refiners 90.3% +1.2% US Gasoline demand fell for the third week running by - 1% year-on-year. Refiners are in the process of turning over production to Distillates for the winter season. 23/8 GMT 23.17 World - The Markets - Donīt buy the Hype Just a reminder... The markets are rising on any little morsal of "well it was bad but not That Bad" news. Germany is slowing, yet not as much as feared.. Europe is slowing, but not as much as feared.. Japan is downgraded to Aa3 from Aa2, but it could have been worse.. Get my drift? 23/8 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude (API - 3.3 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 6.4 mmbls) Distillates (API + 2.0 mmbls) Refiners 89.0% + 1.8% Lower Import for Crude and Refiners increased production of products takes a chunk out of the Crude supply, yet the Total Petroleum Inventory numbers are up.. 17/8 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude + 4.2 (API + 1.7 mmbls) Gasoline - 3.6 (API - 5.4 mmbls) Distillates + 2.4 (API - 1.3 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 4.5 mmbls Crude Import 9.3 mmbopd Gasoline Import 0.7 mmbopd Refiners 89.1% 16/8 GMT 22.13 EU - France & Germany The meeting of the mighty.. Yeah well French and German leaders met on Tuesday and the solution to the problems in the EU are apparently more politics and more taxes. Creating a EU President (donīt they have one already?) and taxing bank transactions are going to save the day.. Just more of the same "kicking the can down the road"... 16/8 GMT 20.41 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - Avaldsnes & Aldous South I wrote in 2010, 7/4 GMT 00.17 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - LUP:TSX - Norway - StatoilHydro Embrace the significance of the deal and try see where this is going to go in the Future. The Barents Sea... This is Big Boyīs Club. Indeed Big Boyīs Club with a confirmation of what was already known ie that Avaldsnes and Aldous South are part of the same structure.. Lundin Petroleum will update its resource estimates for the Avaldsnes/Aldous Major South discoveries located in both PL501 and PL265 after completion of the second Avaldsnes appraisal well currently drilling and after reviewing all the Aldous Major South discovery well data. Further appraisal drilling is planned in PL265 next year to further appraise the Aldous Major South discovery. 16/8 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude (API + 1.7 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 5.4 mmbls) Distillates (API - 1.3 mmbls) Average US Gasoline Demand in the week to 12/8 fell - 4.6% compared to the same week in 2010. Four-week average gasoline demand in the United States fell - 3.4% from year-earlier levels, its 21st straight decline. 15/8 GMT 22.19 USA - The Barack Hussein Obama Tour “These are my people, I am their leader, I must follow them.” Enough said... 15/8 GMT 20.04 World - The Markets - Donīt buy the Hype This site must seem like the darkest place on the internet as I just see dark clouds everywhere.. Well this is a product of +40 years of investment experince.. The very nice and profitable rallies that have happened the last few dayīs are welcomed yet the underlying fundamentals have not changed - a fact! So buy the market and play the swings but donīt get caught thinking this is the bottom or anywhere near it.. This siteīs tactics are to trade the day but close all positions before close of business.. Long term positions, just leave em... 13/8 GMT 03.00 EU - Italy Italy reported a government Budget Deficit equivalent to 4.6% of GDP in 2010. For 2011 itīs expected to be 3.9%.. From 1981 until 2011, Italy's average quarterly GDP Growth has been 0.35% reaching a high of 2.20% in December of 1983 and a record low of -3.00% in March of 2009. 2011 Q2 growth rate was 0.1% equal to the same growth in Q1... Current public debt is 120% of GDP.. See where I am going with this? Just look at the cold hard facts... 13/8 GMT 01.10 EU - France GDP growth in Q2 was Zero down from Q1 growth of 1%.. The Finance Ministry clings to the notion that GDP growth for the year will be 2%.. They are smoking something and it ainīt Gauloise.. And through a cloud of heavy smoke the same ministry sayīs France will be in compliance with the no larger than a 3% Budget Deficit criteria laid down by the EU by 2013... France has not been in compliance with this ruling for the last 9 years... In 2002 the deficit was 3.2%... By the way historically, from 1978 until 2011, France's average quarterly GDP Growth has been 0.49% reaching an historical high of 1.60% in June of 1978 and a record low of -1.60% in December of 2008. 10/8 GMT 23.15 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - TSX:LUP - A Trader in this Market An old favourite in markets like these as it moves fairly broadly and if you get the frequency right itīs a very profitable play... Especially as itīs now trading way below Fair Value it does have an upside imbalance that yearns to find an equalibrium.. 10/8 GMT 22.38 EU - France The interesting question is why S&P, Moodyīs and Fitch all feel compelled to reafirm Franceīs AAA rating with such emphasis, at the same time... Given that public debt in France is somewhere close to 86% of GDP, the highest in all of the European AAA rated countries.. Also French banks are extremely exposed to a number of PIIGS countries.. It smells of "everything is ok here".. really everything is ok... ok everything is..". 10/8 GMT 14.02 World - The Markets The US has taken the brunt of the blame for the downturn in the markets and partly this was right but the 500 Kg Gorilla in the China Shop is still the EU.. France is starting to falter and nothing has changed as far as the PIIGS are concerned and the very Simple and Crystal Clear Fact is that the ECB can not bail out the whole of the Euro Zone... The Fear, Loathing and Angst etc in the markets today is 70% the EUīs fault. And the volatility will continue as the world economy slows until such time that the EU and Euro are broken Up.. We have seen two days of a Relief Rally but it will not last and things are going to get very much worse.. Why else would The Fed lay out a timetable for the current rate level that stretches out to 2013.. Dismantle the EU and Euro Now! 6/8 GMT 00.38 USA - S&P Downgrade AA+ from AAA S&P have as expected downgraded the US from AAA to AA+... Rightly so. "The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics. More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011." - S&P Comment 5/8 GMT 01.03 World - The Markets Finally the markets have woken up to the fact that things are not OK in the Global Economy.. The interesting thing in all this is how many are surprised by the severe downturns in market sentiment.. where have these people been, on Mars?? Then you have the ECB and itīs head Jean-Claude Trichet much like the EU the ECB canīt get a footing right.. In the midst of stock market falls Trichet comes out and sayīs the bank will buy Irish and Portuguese government bonds.. Talk about being behind the curve!! Look for the sell-off to continue and unless the US Jobs Numbers are way above the expected 85.000 to the tune of say 130.000 or better then itīs going to be a very Bloody Friday. The second Recession is here... You have better get used to that very simple and well announced fact. 3/8 GMT 06.01 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - TSX:LUP - H1 & Q2 Report Six months ended 30 June 2011 - Production of 32,300 boepd up 13% from the first six months 2010 - Profit after tax of MUSD 130.3 up 526% from the first six months 2010 - EBITDA of MUSD 505.3 up 96% from the first six months 2010 - Operating cash flow of MUSD 390.3 up 52% from the first six months 2010 - Net debt down to below MUSD 120 from MUSD 410 at year end - Five exploration discoveries, four in Norway and one in Malaysia - Ten Norwegian licences awarded in the 2010 Norwegian licensing round, six as operator - Operated licence awarded in Barents Sea in the 21st Norwegian licensing round - Operated Gurita block awarded in the Natuna Sea, offshore Indonesia Second Quarter ended 30 June 2011 - Production of 31,100 boepd - Profit after tax of MUSD 76.9 - EBITDA of MUSD 266.9 - Operating cash flow of MUSD 196.7 - Three exploration discoveries – Skalle and Earb South discoveries in Norway and Tarap discovery in Malaysia - Appraisal well confirmed extension of the Avaldsnes discovery - New operated block PM307 awarded in Malaysia - Brynhild field plan of development (formerly called Nemo) submitted You know you have to like it.... 3/8 GMT 02.47 USA - Debt Crisis - A Deal I wrote.. "So we will get a Bear Market Rally, but this site doubtīs it will last for long".. Well it lasted all of 40 minutes.. As for the EU the US numbers are all just pointing one way at the moment and that is down the Recession Road! QE3 possible but it would do about as much for Main Street USA as QE1 and QE2 did ie basically nothing.. On that note.. China's Dagong Global Credit Rating Agency has cut its credit rating on US Sovereign Debt to A from A+.. With a $3.2 Trillion part of USīs debt I guess China needs to make a point. Not that it will make much of a difference to the Global Markets, yet there is the "Negative Outlook" from Moodyīs and Fitch. A more fair and balanced action would have been to put the US back to AA.. 3/8 GMT 01.34 The EU - End of the Euro - The Last Denial The signs are all out there and have been for a long, long time as readers of this site all well know.. Yet the Global Market seems still to be in Denial, everybody in the EU zone sure are! Spain and Italy see the cost of borrowing money just increase and the inter-EU rate spreads are in some cases just redicoulus.. Yields on 10-year bonds in Spain run at 6.45% and in Italy at 6.25% and this is only going to increase. Simply put there is no way for the ECB or private lenders to raise the cash to bail out, pretty much all of the PIIGS! Never mind the fact the we are in for a new round of Recession!! 2/8 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude (API - 3.3 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 2.6 mmbls) Distillates (API + 1.4 mmbls) Average US gasoline demand is currently - 3.1% lower than the same period last year, much due to the fact that prices at the pump are 35.5% above last years level. 1/8 GMT 02.16 USA - Debt Crisis - A Deal So we will get a Bear Market Rally, but this site doubtīs it will last for long as the systemic faults are still there in the US and least of all the EU.. Still belive a Down Grade will be on the cards as it should be if given any fair measure. Remember the "deal" has still to be ratified by Congress.... 30/7 GMT 01.38 USA - President Barack Hussein Obama Leadership.. What leadership? Are we really going to have to suffer one more year of President Obama... The US President is asking the country to "tweet" about the Debt Crisis!?? Please.. 28/7 GMT 03.02 World - The Markets A US Credit downgrade is pretty much on the cards despite whatever deal is made in the short term... The cut in spending is in the region of $1 - $2 Trillion, but the larger issue is the long term debt which is in the stratosphere at $15 Trillion... A AA grading is going to hurt as it would be the first time since ever or 1917 that the US is not AAA.. Despite the reassurances from the head of the Swedish Riksbank "Åsanisse" who declared the "Financial Crisis is Over" - 3/3 2011, the global economy is heading for a very bad fall in the not too distant future.... 26/7 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude (API + 4.0 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 0.64 mmbls) Distillates (API + 2.9 mmbls) 22/7 GMT 00.53 The EU - Politics At least two rating agencies are going to declare Greece in "selective default", just another milestone on the road to leaving the Euro.. EU politicians are getting real desperate in trying to hold together that which should never have been joined. There is almost a smell of desperation rhetoric in the speeches made by the leaders of the EU, the paranoia about non-EU Credit Rating companies is but just one example. The markets after an initial rally will not be much impressed by more loans and manipulations. 19/7 GMT 02.41 The EU - The US - Politics Itīs interesting that the current Debt Crisis in the US can be solved short term by political will.. Yet in the EU no amount of Political Will can solve an ongoing and worsening Debt Crisis. Germany true to form is already leaving the EU by looking to the East for partnerships in production, design and a whole host of other areas.. For an insight into the alternative available for the EU, read up on US history say around 1791 and a fellow namned Hamilton, Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton... I doubt very much anyone in Europe will any longer want to go down this road. 19/7 GMT 02.13 The EU - Banks - The Stress Test Allow me to ROTFLMAO.... The benchmark for passing was that the lenders should have a core tier 1 capital ratio of 5% or more after a projected two years of worsening economic conditions. What about Sovereign Debt? Add Sovereign Debt at a 5% ratio and somewhere between 15 to 22 banks would have failed... Raise the ratio to say 7% and we are off to the races... The EU again "fluffing" the numbers! Simply because History is apparently not on the "to read list"... 16/7 GMT 04.05 Australia - Rugby League - The Manly Sea Eagles vs Newcastle Knights Sunday 17/7 Ausgrid Stadium. The Sea Eagles will beat the "Tin Men"... Eagles beat the Knights 32 - 10... 13/7 GMT 02.00 China - Q2 GDP Q2 9.5% year on year growth the lowest for two years.. Down from Q1 of 9.7%.. 13/7 GMT 00.05 China - Power Output China produced 396.8 billion kilowatt hours of electricity in June, up 16.2% from the same month last year. Power output in the first half of the year reached 2.22 trillion kWh, up 13.5%.. 12/7 GMT 19.43 The EU - The Euro - Ireland Junk As expected Irelandīs rating at Moodyīs is downgraded to "junk" status... 12/7 GMT 08.41 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - TSX:LUP - Malaysia - SB 303 Sabah More than trucking, also finding... Natural Gas.. "Tarap-1 was drilled with the Offshore Courageous rig in a water depth of approximately 70 meters. The well was directionally drilled to a measured depth of 2,675 metres. The Tarap discovery is a stratigrahic trap and the well encountered gas in each of the 5 independently sealed stacked Miocene sands targeted. Gross total vertical pay thickness for the sands encountered is approximately 150 metres. The rig will now move to drill the Cempulut prospect, also in SB303, the second well in Lundin Petroleum’s five well drilling campaign in Malaysia in 2011." 11/7 GMT 15.04 The EU - The Euro - Moronoic EU Politicians Ireland is about to be downgraded, as it should! Stupid European politicians are trying to keep the "EU Dream" afloat but to no avail.. The EU is draging down the global markets and the only resolution is the final break-up!! Moronic Europeans think again that they can beat the market.. The bondsharks are having a whale of a time... 6/7 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude (API + 3.2 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 1.9 mmbls) Distillates (API - 1.6 mmbls) US weekly gasoline demand rose 2.4% in the week ended July 1, to 9.56 mmbopd.. Demand in the latest four weeks averaged 9.383 mmbopd, down - 0.5% from a year ago, falling for the 15th consecutive week. Demand compared to the same period last year is down - 0.9%.. This in an environment where Gasoline prices at the pump still are 30% above last years prices.. 4/7 GMT 05.23 Central Banks - Sweden - Riksbanken A central bank even further removed from reality is the worldīs oldest the The Riksbank and itīs head Stefan Ingves who is supposed to be very well versed in the mechanics of a market such as the very little country is experiencing at the moment. A rate increase on Tuesday is a given.. As to why, well that is the question Sweden will have to confront for another six years....... 4/7 GMT 04.01 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Malaysia - SB 303 Sabah Trucking along nicelly.. 4/7 GMT 01.49 Central Banks - Australia RBA The Bank could surprise by raising the cash rate on the 5/7... The reason being is that in the way the RBA thinks which is given far from reality according to this site there is one more rate hike due before the end of 2011 because of inflation??, so why not do it now!? There are apparently signals out there, this is however not built into the current market.. 4/7 USA - 4th of July 1/7 GMT 02.19 The EU - The Euro - Greece - Bailouts "The definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." — Albert Einstein 1/7 GMT 02.07 Currency - The Asian Play A basket of Southeast Asian currencies is worth buying going forward. The Reason? Well many Asian currencies have been held artificially low to stimulate the export market, but now many of these countries need to stimulate domestic activity and this is where this play has itīs feet.. Just a thought! 1/7 GMT 02.01 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent - Q2 WTI declined - 10.6% in Q2.. Brent did a little better but cut - 5.0% in the same quarter.. The decision to invest for a downturn in the price structure was therefore correct. And this downturn is set to continue into Q3 and depending on the EU-Mess into Q4 and beyond.. 23/6 GMT 20.43 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent - IEA Oil Reserve Release OK so a release of 60 mmbls in 30 days ainīt much but it does send a potent signal, especially as more releases are in the offering.. The question is however if the signal sent is not a huge "SOS" the Global Economy is in Dire Straits. Which is not far from the truth... The next question is how many of these barrels actually find their way into the marketplace? The 28 mmbls from the US show in the stats fairly smartly but from the rest, especially european countries, well.... Questions aside the move is correct if albeit a sign of desperation, but it will help in the economic recovery or rather lessen the next downturn.. 23/6 GMT 02.22 Heritage Oil - HOIL:LSE - HOC:TSX - Kurdistan - Miran West-3 Please see earlier posting concerning Miran West-2, 27/1.. The Miran West-3 well, a step-out appraisal of the Jurassic gas discovery made by the Miran West-2 probe, is due to be drilled in early August while two rigs have been lined up to start exploration drilling at Miran East in the fourth quarter. 23/6 GMT 02.15 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - New Management By way of heavy pressure from the larger shareholders the Chairman and the CEO were replaced, not a moment too soon! 21/6 GMT 04.16 China - Power Output China produced 377.5 billion KWh in May, up 12% from a year ago.. Interestingly a large part of the increase is due more to warm climatic conditions than to actual industrial activity.. 21/6 GMT 03.49 The EU - The Euro - Greece - Default Itīs amazing how many otherwise, you would belive smart people are in denial when it comes to the outcome of the Greek crisis.. The EU is in the throws of finally breaking apart, so everyone who is not a politician can get back to doing business... So despite the dark clouds gathering the break up of the EU will be a start to a new period of growth, simply because at the moment the EU is half a billion people living in a disfunctional political utopia that has nothing to do with Real World Market Economics! 19/6 GMT 03.59 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent WTI closed last week down - 6%, with Brent coming in at - 4%.. Also the ridiculous pricing of Brent is opening the way for Russia amongst others to offer cheaper oil to Europe. And then there are the techinicals for pricing the contracts and support levels are falling.. 15/6 GMT 23.12 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent The Brent bubble was doomed and today the contract took a beating.. This sites estimates for a Fair Value today for WTI/Brent stand firm at $70 to $80 with a $5 spread.. 13/6 GMT 03.51 China Inflation in China is currently running at just below 6% all the while the economy is slowing down. So the Central Bank of China is going to have to raise rates right into a downturn in economic activity... In this the Chinese Government is projecting a GDP Growth Rate for 2011 of about 8%, and given Chinas criteria a rate below 5% is effectivly Recession.. So a Real GDP growth rate of 3% with an Inflation Rate of 6%... Hmmm... 13/6 GMT 02.10 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent - Spread The WTI/Brent spread is at $21 and funds and large investors are leaving the WTI contract for Brent, it has very little to do with fundamentals but more about a move from the weak to the strong. Also the fact that statistics surrounding the Brent contract Oil is nonexistent helps to drive the price to where ever the markets large players like it to be, damn the consequences! Now this site is Free Market Capitalistic to the Core but there are times when investors actions especially in the commodities arena can lead to dire results, not at least for themselves and their investors. This site belives we are heading down that road at speed.. Just look at all the signs out there!! 7/6 GMT 02.12 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX An interesting interview by Lelde Smits for the Finance News Network with Australian Bauxite CEO, Ian Levy.. 7/6 GMT 01.59 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent - OPEC This site has been saying so for a long time, OPEC ie the Saudiīs has been pointing to it for a long time and now we are getting to crunch time. The price of Crude is TOO HIGH!! The US is falling slowly into a double-dip, Europe well what do you say? China is pulling back itīs positions to cool off itīs economy and also deal with growing internal problems.. In the light of this $100 WTI is $30 to much, this site knows it OPEC knows it and many economists/analysts are finally getting aboard yet the speculators keep driving the price as sheep do until their standing there in the field with massive losses wondering where all the other sheep went.. Was it not a hedge fund that lost $6 billion on the wrong side of the price of Crude? To fix this the exchange raises margin rates to no avail simply because it has never worked the many times itīs been tried before.. Make delivery and acceptance of physical oil a prerequisite for trade when it comes to hedge funds... Another way to go perhaps.. Yet the Market Place being the great leveller the price will find itīs equalibrium sooner or later and it aint higher than today.. Or we can all do a 2008 revisited... 2/6 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude + 2.9 (API + 3.5 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.6 (API + 1.5 mmbls) Distillates - 1.0 (API - 1.4 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 7.2 mmbls Crude Import 9.5 mmbopd Gasoline Import 1.2 mmbopd Refiners 86.0% - 0.3% 1/6 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude (API + 3.5 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 1.5 mmbls) Distillates (API - 1.4 mmbls) US retail gasoline demand fell last week versus a year earlier with prices still almost 39% above May 2010 despite dipping for a third straight week. Average weekly gasoline demand fell - 2.5% year-on-year in the week to May 27. Demand rose 3.1% from the previous week, boosted by the Memorial Day holiday weekend, but average demand over the last four weeks dipped - 2% over the same period for 2010. 1/6 GMT 02.06 The EU - The Euro - Greece - Bailouts "The definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." — Albert Einstein 26/5 GMT 01.13 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent - Distillates In the "whatever floats your boat" dept the market traded Crude higher on the back of declines in Distillate storage.. Yeah! Now there is some reason to the madness as India through a wacky subsidy scheme has made Diesel cheaper to burn in factories, homes etc than traditional Fuel Oil and China uses a fair amount of Distillate type oils and demand is expected to rise due to electric power problems, see posting concerning Power Output in China. Yet with storage of US Gasoline increasing and demand sluggish, refiners are soon going to turn to Distillates for the coming winter period so Distillate as a driver of Crude contracts this early in spring/summer is a weak base to build a price rally on. 25/5 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude + 0.6 (API - 0.9 mmbls) Gasoline + 3.8 (API + 2.4 mmbls) Distillates - 2.0 (API - 0.8 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.8 mmbls Crude Import 9.2 mmbopd Gasoline Import 1.4 mmbopd Refiners 86.3% + 3.1% The total demand for petroleum products is - 5.3% lower than for the same period last year. Refiners are up and running hence much of the build in Gasoline stocks, also the healthy Import numbers do help aswell. However gasoline demand is down - 2.1% year on year, consistent with the API stats.. 24/5 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude (API - 0.9 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 2.4 mmbls) Distillates (API - 0.8 mmbls) Retail gasoline demand fell last week versus a year earlier, as prices dropped for a second straight week but stayed 38% above 2010 levels. Average weekly gasoline demand fell - 2% in the week to May 20 compared with the same period a year ago. Demand fell - 1.4% compared with the previous week. 24/5 GMT 19.32 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - Trig.Com The social networking, music site is on-line.. 23/5 GMT 21.52 The EU - The Euro - Greece - Default Will Greece Default? This site sayīs Yes! Itīs inevitable.. the only unknown is when, tomorrow, Friday or next month does matter very little as it will happen. Greece leaves the Euro and competes itīs way out of the situation via a cheap national currency. It certainly canīt borrow itīs way to balance and the structural changes needed will not be accepted by the population, leaving the Euro is the only road to travel.. 20/5 GMT 12.18 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - CityServe A new addition to the Cellpoint Group in partnership would be CityServe.. "The company has now been acquired by Omagis Telecom Limited supported by Cellpoint Connect AB a key product supplier. Cellpoint is a Swedish company listed on the Swedish Stock Exchange." 17/5 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude (API + 2.7 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 0.7 mmbls) Distillates (API - 2.8 mmbls) Crude Import 1.2 mmbopd Refiners 81.7% - 0.5% Gasoline demand fell - 1.2% compared with the same period a year ago. Prices are still 37.8% higher than a year ago... Explains the drop in demand.. 17/5 GMT 01.47 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent - US Floods The opening of flood gates along the Morganza Spillway on the Mississippi River is having the desired effect. Up to 8 large refineries are going to be unaffected by the floods, which means that about 12% of the total US Refining capacity is going to keep on refining.. This will put further downward pressure on RBOB contracts and ofcourse also Crude.. 16/5 GMT 02.05 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - Tellus The Tellus discovery lookīs more than set to be included in the Luno development program.... 16/5 GMT 01.29 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent Over the last week the Saudiīs have from several sources made it known that they see a Fair Price Range for Oil today at $70 to $80... This site can only agree as this is what has been stated for some time, the current price level is too high and it will start hurting economies more and more going forward. The risk/speculation premium of $30 to $35 is going to fade as demand slows for Oil, but also for other Commodities.. 12/5 GMT 03.11 China - Power Output As stated before the Power Output numbers are a good "on the ground" indicator.. Chinese power plants generated 366.4 billion kilowatt hours of electricity last month, with output in the first four months up 12.6% from a year earlier. For april the year-on-year increase was 11.7%.. Power output problems are expected across the country this coming summer. 11/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude + 3.8 (API + 2.9 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.3 (API - 1.8 mmbls) Distillates - 0.8 (API + 0.6 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 6.4 mmbls Crude Import 9.0 mmbopd Gasoline Import 1.2 mmbopd Refiners 81.7% -1.1% 10/5 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude (API + 2.9 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 1.8 mmbls) Distillates (API + 0.6 mmbls) Crude Import 9.4 mmbopd Refiners 82.2% US retail Gasoline Demand fell last week as the fuel became more expensive, Average weekly gasoline demand fell - 0.5% from the previous week and dipped - 2.4% from a year earlier. Over the latest four weeks, average US gasoline consumption fell - 1.1% from year-ago levels, the seventh straight drop. 10/5 GMT 21.02 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT The current share price putīs the Market Value of the stock at about 30% of itīs Fair Value, given the fundamentals. The problem is that it is difficult for the Market to get a grasp of what Cellpoint is... I am confident that this flaw will be corrected in the not to distant future! I also envisage that the company and more importantly the management will move forward with more resolve and that a declaration of newly signed deals should be imminent... CityServe?... 10/5 GMT 02.01 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent The CME is going to raise margin requirements to trade West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Heating Oil, RBOB Gasoline futures Today, Tuesday. WTI margins are set to go up by 25%... 9/5 GMT 00.16 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent Look for WTI to head towards the $80 level in the coming weeks.. Qatar's oil minister said he does not expect OPEC to make a dramatic decision during the upcoming OPEC meeting in June, and that the market is still well supplied."We think the fundamentals are fine... I don't expect OPEC to take a dramatic decision," Mohammed Al Sada told reporters on the sidelines of an industry meeting in Doha on Sunday. Oil fell on Friday to cap a frenzied trading week that sliced prices by a record of more than $16 a barrel on demand worries and a move by investors to slash commodities exposures. Iran is basing the oil price for its 2011/12 budget at around $81.50 per barrel. Saudi Arabia on the other hand bases the oil price for its 2011/12 budget at around $50-$55 per barrel.. Oil prices do not reflect market fundamentals even after the recent drop in price, and volatility still remains high, a Saudi Arabian oil official said on Sunday. "Current oil prices do not reflect fundamentals of the market, the market today faces a lot of unwarranted volatility," said a Saudi government official, who declined to be named. 7/5 GMT 22.41 The EU - The Euro - The last Gasp... The Greek national debt is 150% of GDP. The Greek Budget Deficit has for 2010 been revised up to - 10.5%.. Greece was given a €110 Billion loan earlier this year, and it will need about as much again plus... The country simply canīt work itīs way out of this unless itīs loans are restructured to the tune of €0.30 - 0.50 cents on the €1.. Or there abouts... The only rational way forward is to leave the EU and the Euro, go back to a national currency and Compete!! So the loans are in Euroīs? Tell the lenders you may get something in the future or not a € cent today.... OK not possible but the tone should be along those lines. By the way the Euro Zone Debt, 16 countries for 2010 came in at 85.1% of GDP up from 2009 at 79.3%... 4/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude + 3.4 (API + 3.8 mmbls) Gasoline - 1.0 (API + 0.7 mmbls) Distillates - 1.4 (API - 1.5 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 7.5 mmbls Crude Import 8.9 mmbopd Gasoline Import 1.1 mmbopd Refiners 82.8% 4/5 GMT 02.29 Osama bin Laden - Just a thought The US has the Naval Special Warfare Development Group ie Seal Team 6 train for months ahead of Sundays operation in Abbottabad, Pakistan against Osama bin Laden. When they finally find him he is unarmed and a woman who threatens the Seal Team is shot in the leg.. An unarmed Osama bin Laden while resisting capture is shot to death with two bullets in a classic Double Tap.. So Navy Seals who are more than well trained in all arts of war are so scared of an unarmed man that they kill him? The biggest singel intelligence asset in the war against Al Qaeda Terrorism? Sorry I find it very difficult to belive.. Itīs either an outright Assassination or Seal Team 6 really Screwed Up.. 3/5 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the EIA - API Crude (API + 3.8 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 0.7 mmbls) Distillates (API - 1.5 mmbls) Refiners 82.2% US retail Gasoline demand sank - 1.0% for the 5th week.. Demand year on year is down by 0.6%.. The high prices at the pump the main reason. 3/5 GMT 11.12 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - Tellus There should be a lot of happy faces on the 4/5... 3/5 GMT 03.14 The Lundin Group I have said it before and I will say it again The Lundin Group as a listing would be a very interesting play. With a diversity that entices... 2/5 GMT 02.16 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent The US is having Refining problems hence the rise in the price of Gasoline. And Oil has become an inflation hedger much like gold, not a very sound development as the price of Crude is one of the primary drivers of just inflation... Weird Market! Risk premium is about $30 to $35 at the moment and speculation is baked into this. Just remember the old adage - Nothing fixes the high price of Oil like the high price of Oil.. 28/4 GMT 00.07 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT A cancelled AGM is not unhurd of yet a day or twoīs notice is usual.. OK guyīs now itīs build the future time!! Enough with the debt cleaning.. show the last two blue haired grannies the door and letīs get cooking on new deals!! The pressure is on! OK!? 26/4 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 4.9 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 2.1 mmbls) Distillates (API + 1.5 mmbls) No lack of Crude and the rest is a Refinery output thing... Retail gasoline demand fell last week by - 0.7% from the previous week. 24/4 GMT 00.39 Australia - SAS - The Victoria Cross - ”cos that’s an Aussie thing.” Who Dares Wins.. 19/4 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 0.7 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 1.8 mmbls) Distillates (API - 3.4 mmbls) US retail gasoline demand rose last week as warmer weather encouraged more driving, but was down from a year ago because of high prices at the pump. Average gasoline demand rose + 3.3% from the previous week to 9.3 mmbopd. But that was down - 1.6% from a year ago, marking the seventh straight slippage, due to steep pump prices. 18/4 GMT 21.14 Oil World - Kuwait Kuwait's oil minister said Monday he agreed with comments made a day earlier by his Saudi counterpart that world crude oil markets are oversupplied. "There is sufficent oil supplies in the market," Sheik Ahmad Al Abdullah Al Sabah said at the sidelines of a meeting of Asian energy ministers in Kuwait. Asked whether he agreed with Saudi Arabia's Ali Naimi, who said Sunday that the global oil market is oversupplied, Sheik Ahmad said: "Yes, the market is oversupplied." 15/4 GMT 11.02 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - PL609 - Barents Sea A new block for Lupe, as operator with a 40% share... Interesting neighbourhood.... 13/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 1.6 (API + 1.2 mmbls) Gasoline - 7.0 (API - 4.6 mmbls) Distillates - 2.7 (API - 3.7 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories - 5.0 mmbls Crude Import 8.6 mmbopd Gasoline Import 0.9 mmbopd Refiners 81.4% Big cut out of Gasoline storage, yet with low imports and refining output itīs to be expected. Puts upward pressure on the contracts going forward.. Demand is fairly flat across the board. 13/4 GMT 13.30 Oil - VLCC Storage Globally there are at the moment 39 VLCCīs used for storage of Crude to the tune of 78 mmbls.. Iran has oil stored in 19 VLCCīs, each with a capacity to hold 2 mmbls of Crude. Iran is storing this amount due to the ongoing sanctions. Also demand for certain grades of Crude has fallen... 12/4 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 1.2 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 4.6 mmbls) Distillates (API - 3.7 mmbls) 12/4 GMT 19.42 Oil World - Saudi Aramco cutīs production Saudi Arabias Aramco has cut back oil production to 8.5 mmbopd from the "boosted" 9.0 mmbopd that was instigated to take up the slack left buy Libya.. Yet as it turned out the customers just werenīt interested due to lower demand from Japan and in general. Aramco has a maximum production level of 12.5 mmbopd so the cutback gives the Saudis about 4.5 mmbopd in spare capacity.. 12/4 GMT 11.12 OPEC - Monthly Report Oil Market Highlights - The OPEC Reference Basket increased further in February, moving above $100/b on 21 February for the first time since September 2008. The upward movement in the Basket was supported by the strong performance of the futures market, which surged on supply fears and increased speculative activities. The Basket stood at $110.71/b on 10 March. - World economic growth remains robust and continuing improvements have led to improved growth expectations for 2011, which have been adjusted 0.1% higher to 4.0%. The main reason for the upward revision is healthy growth in the developing countries. China’s forecast has been increased from 8.8% to 9.0% and India from 8.0% to 8.1%. The forecast for the OECD remains unchanged at 2.3%, with the US at 2.9% and both the Euro-zone and Japan at 1.5%. Inflation is beginning to pose a challenge for policy makers in both the OECD and the developing countries. In the case of the OECD, this might lead to higher interest rates, which could increase the cost of servicing sovereign debt, while for developing countries the introduction of fiscal and monetary tools targeting overheating could result in a larger-than-expected decline in growth levels. - World oil demand growth is estimated at 1.8 mb/d in 2010 and forecast at 1.4 mb/d in 2011, representing only minor upward adjustments from the previous report. Oil demand in the first quarter of this year was boosted by cold winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere. In the non-OECD, second quarter oil demand is expected to maintain its healthy level, achieving similar growth to that of the first quarter. While the colder-than-normal winter has strengthened oil demand, high oil prices could dampen consumption over the coming months if current price levels persist for an extended period. This effect would be felt both in the OECD and non-OECD countries. - Non-OPEC oil supply is projected to increase by 0.5 mb/d in 2011, following growth of 1.1 mb/d in the previous year. The 2011 figure represents an upward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d from the previous assessment, mainly due to revisions to historical data as well as changes in the supply profile of some countries. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to average 5.3 mb/d in 2011, an increase of 0.5 mb/d over the previous year. In February, total OPEC crude oil production, according to secondary sources, increased by 110 tb/d to average 30.0 mb/d. - The sustained momentum in the middle distillates market received further support from the industrial sector, contributing to stronger diesel demand across the globe. This offset the bearish sentiment in the top of the barrel and kept product markets healthy. Strong middle distillate demand, amid reduced refinery runs due to seasonal maintenance, is likely to continue to support refinery margins over the coming months. - Tanker market sentiment strengthened, with spot freight rates increasing on most routes. The gains were backed by factors such as holidays in the Far East and weather conditions, and occurred despite higher bunker fuel prices and some refinery maintenance. OPEC fixtures decreased by 960 tb/d to average 11.9 mb/d, which corresponds to almost two thirds of global fixtures. OPEC sailings increased by 208 tb/d to 24.0 mb/d, according to preliminary estimates. - US commercial inventories fell by around 23.8 mb in February, reversing the build seen last month. The stock draw was driven by the substantial drop in products, which declined by 27.0 mb, while crude inventories saw a build of 3.2 mb. US commercial oil stocks in February remained above the historical norm at 1051.1 mb. In Japan, the most recent data shows that commercial oil inventories declined by 2.4 mb in January, with crude seeing a draw of 2.6 mb while products experienced a slight build of 0.3 mb. Preliminary indications for February show that Japanese commercial oil stocks fell a further 8.2 mb. - The demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is estimated at 29.3 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report and about 0.3 mb/d higher than the year before. In 2011, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 29.8 mb/d, unchanged from the previous assessment and an increase of around 0.5 mb/d over last year. 11/4 GMT 00.35 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent A big Oil Stat Week with OPEC and the USA numbers out... Is this site buying contracts on the notion that they will go up? No!.. The $30 risk premium in the contracts at the moment is just not worth playing around with. The World is Not Running out of Oil and Demand is not outstripping Supply - Again!! 7/4 GMT 11.43 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - 2010 Annual Report Sweet Readings... 29/3 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 5.7 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 1.9 mmbls) Distillates (API - 0.1 mmbls) No lack of Crude here.... 26/3 GMT 00.02 2012 - The End? Or Just a Calendar Ticking Over?? The Mayan k'in Calendar much like an Odometer ticks over to a new cycle on 21/12/12 or does it...? I think the about 7 million current Mayan decendents would like to see the calendar just do that.. Others see the end of The World!! I see an Interesting Options spread bet.... Next year... Mayan k'in - Long Count Calendar Countdown
25/3 GMT 23.46 Australia - Dollar The Australian dollar rose 0.7% to $1.0288 at 12:12 p.m. in New York, from $1.0212 yesterday, after touching the record high of $1.0294. The Aussie rallied 3.3% this week in its biggest five-day advance since 9/7... The dollar has not been this strong since 1982! 25/3 GMT 11.30 The EU - The Euro - The last Gasp Portugal needs €80 Billion.. Greece got €110 Billion and Ireland €68 Billion.. Spain will probable need something in the order of €300 Billion.. Yet all of this is "fluff", itīs artificial resuscitation and itīs just kicking the can full of problems further down the road! Have all forms of intelligent thinking come to a complete standstill in Europe? Do you not get it? The problem the basis for all of the problems that individual states are having is the EU and the Euro... Itīs a political construct that has nothing to do with Economic Reality! Scrap the project now!! The rest of the world is paying the price for European foolishness.... 23/3 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API 22/3 GMT 01.56 Atacama Minerals Corp - AAM:V Aguas Blancas - The Iodine Deposit... At a time when nuclear radiation is very much on it seems everyones mind, AAMīs Iodine Deposits in Aguas Blancas look very attractive... Never mind the fact that Iodine tablets for the most part donīt really help that much and if you are over 40 years old, not at all... But Hey Buy Em!! However AAM at the current stock price, with what is coming down the pipeline is another Strong Buy.. The payout will take some time but it will be worth the wait... 21/3 GMT 21.18 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT This site can only reiterate the Strong Buy rating for this stock! 15/3 GMT 11.26 Libya 12/2 GMT 16.32 Egypt - Hosni Mubarak Steps Down Congratulations to the People of Egypt! 10/2 GMT 15.30 The EU - The Euro - The last Gasp - Interview with Jean-Claude Trichet Well Boys and Girls all is fine aboard the good ship Titanic... No need to worry... L’Espresso: For several months, starting with the Greek crisis, the euro area has been experiencing one of its most dramatic periods. Some are even speaking of risks to the single currency. Are you also concerned? Trichet: The euro as a currency is not in crisis. The single currency is sound and credible. It has kept its purchasing power remarkably well over the last 12 years and is credible to keep price stability for the next 10 years. L’Espresso: Very optimistic. Some are suggesting that some of the weaker countries may leave the euro, while others are mentioning that Germany may leave. Is this likely? Trichet: Again, the currency is not in crisis. A number of fiscal policies have to be improved very significantly because they are contributing to the creation of financial instability. We are experiencing a crisis of some sovereign signatures in the euro area, namely in Greece and Ireland. On the question of leaving the euro, I do not comment on absurd speculation. 10/2 GMT 00.26 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT In the Strong Buy departement this one goes to the head of the list in expectation of the 17/2 End of Year Communiqué.. 10/2 GMT 00.24 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX Well you canīt keep a good stock down... As to why this one is running, well "why look a gift horse in the mouth?"... TYK all over again... 2/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 2.6 (API + 3.8 mmbls) Gasoline + 6.2 (API + 3.9 mmbls) Distillates - 1.6 (API - 1.1 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.5 mmbls Crude Import 9.0 mmbopd Gasoline Import 1.2 mmbopd Refiners 84.5% + 2.7% This should increase the WTI/Brent spread as the US is well supplied with Crude and Products.. 2/1 GMT 11.02 Australia - Queensland - Cyclone Yasi Category 5 About two hours from landfall... 1/1 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 3.8 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 3.9 mmbls) Distillates (API - 1.1 mmbls) 27/1 GMT 11.14 Heritage Oil - HOIL:LSE - HOC:TSX - Kurdistan - Miran West 2 Heritage makes a major discovery in Kurdistan. The company reckons the structure holds P90-P50 gross in-place volumes of between 6.8 and 9.1 trillion cubic feet along with 42 to 71 million barrels of condensate and 53 to 75 million barrels of oil. The P10 upside is put at over 12 tcf of gas. These are world-class numbers – indeed, Heritages says this is the sixth largest gas field discovered in Iraq and the largest gas field to be discovered in Iraq for more than 30 years... Yet itīs Gas and not Oil so the stock has taken a beating.. A lesson to all those who think Gas discoveries are winners.. 26/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 4.8 (API + 2.1 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.4 (API + 1.7 mmbls) Distillates - 0.1 (API - 5.0 mmbls) Crude Import 9.4 mmbopd Gasoline Import 0.65 mmbopd Refineries 81,8% - 1.2% Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.4 mmbls 26/1 Australia - Australia Day Sydney is heading for 35 degrees celsius.. The 175th Australia Day Regatta with more than 50 classic wooden yachts, many gaff-rigged, and several built more than a century ago, will grace the waters of Sydney Harbour to commemorate the 175th Australia Day.. Have a Good One!! 25/1 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 2.1 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 1.7 mmbls) Distillates (API - 5.0 mmbls) Distillates are down due to the cold weather, yet the rise in Crude is way more than expected especially after the Trans-Alaska-Pipeline problems and other "stuff"... 25/1 GMT 14.28 UK - GDP Q4 Ouch.. A - 0.5% contraction in Q4 does note bode well.. The stuff about a "bad" winter is just fluff, the fact is the Europe is in Big Trouble! Unfortunatly that trouble affects the rest of the world... The price of Crude dropped $1 on the news and looks set to continue down as there is no shortage of Crude in the market... 22/1 GMT 16.53 The Greywolf Site - 20.000.000 Unique Visitors Ya'll come back now ya hear.. 20/1 GMT 21.20 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX The support level of note is $6.00 with $6.24 the primary target. If the stock falls below $6.00 then a whole new ballgame emerges with the 50 DMA level of $5.71 as a major area of support. A very tradable stock.. If you are long disregard all of the above. 20/1 GMT 15.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 2.6 (API + 3.5 mmbls) Gasoline + 4.4 (API + 1.9 mmbls) Distillates + 1.0 (API + 0.9 mmbls) Crude Import 9.0 mmbopd Gasoline Import 0.75 mmbopd Refiners 83.0% Total Petroleum Inventories + 2.4 mmbls Build across the board from both reporting organisations. The Trans-Alaska-Pipeline is almost back up to max production.. 18/1 GMT 19.14 Atacama Minerals Corp - AAM:V This one I have not written about since the "new" site came back up in 2005.. Yet after a long time in the backwater of interest 2011 looks set to be a year when finally something is going to happen.. The Salvador Potash Project – Brazil is looking at an eight drill programme for 2011. Aguas Blancas Iodine Mine – Chile is set to increase production over the coming six months.. Small steps.. The eight drills in Salvador are the real potential drivers for the stock.. 13/1 GMT 20.28 EnQuest PLC - ENQ:SAX - ENQ:LSE In answer to a question off-line, Market Maker for the stock trade in Enquest is Credit Suisse First Boston. 13/1 GMT 01.53 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent The US stats showed more decline in Crude stocks, six weeks running on that one. Yet storage at Cushing, Oklahoma is still relatively high and the Imports have been far from stellar much due to outages in supply from Alaska, Norway and of late Canada where the TAP pipeline is back up and running at 3/4 capacity. Brent is at a hefty premium to WTI much due to the supply situation in the US. What however is starting to have an impact is the crack spreads, ie Crude - Gasoline production margins, that are now at a peak of low margins for refiners and intigrated oil companies. The charts show that when that peak is attained a fall in Crude prices is not far away, and with most refiners gearing up for the spring/summer season in the Northen Hemisphere well the pressure to bring Crude prices down is going to grow especially as US gasoline is selling at about $3.10 a gallon, at $3.30-50 demand will drop off fairly fast. $100 is a mark I fear the market wants to reach but I donīt see that level as being very healthy for anyone given the mess in Europe and the frail recovery in the US. Remember OPEC still has about 6 mmbopd in spare capacity to bring to market and that is 8% of daily global demand... The fundamentals in the market say $70 to $80 oil is Fair today, the rest is very much speculation. 12/1 GMT 21.48 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT See my prior posting on the 15/12... This receivership business is just silly. But as expected itīs cleared up with some red faces for the "other" side I would venture. Yet I like adversity and this company does give you the possibility to try your nerv.. However the nuts & bolts of the situation is that the management are simply very good at what they do!! 12/1 GMT 20.57 The Strong Buy List Black Pearl Exploration Cellpoint Connect Australian Bauxite Ltd Enquest Guideline Lundin Petroleum Rockhopper Exploration PLC Etrion ShaMaran Petroleum Corp Africa Oil Corp OK so this is pretty much every stock that has been covered the last year, yet there are more and I will get to them. Yet the stocks covered on the site with regularity are also the strongest at just that moment.. Etrion is one I suspect will move once the Northen winter abates, tough to sell solar power in the middle of a Nordic Winter.. Guideline is "money in the bank"... 12/1 GMT 20.33 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX I wrote on the 11/11 that current uptick in stock price may not have legs.. Well how wrong can you be! This "new" Tyk is strangely behaving a lot like itīs namesake and the current run is nothing short of remarkable. This time I do however doubt the length of itīs legs.. I mean why tempt fate... There are good fundamental grounds for the share price and I can see this doubeling during the year.. The question is though how long the oil price can sustain these levels and how long the global ecenomy can sustain the oil price level.. PXX ranks high on the sites Strong Buy list. 10/1 GMT 00.28 Falkland Islands - Rockhopper Exploration PLC - AIM:RKH - 14/10-3 The 14/10-3 well is set to be spudded this month. It will be an exploration well on the northern lobe of the Sea Lion fan system outside of the proposed Discovery Area, approximately 8km from the Sea Lion discovery well. The well will also target deeper sands, including S2, which the Company has mapped following the Sea Lion oil discovery earlier this 2010. S2 has a newly-identified reservoir feeder system and a total area currently mapped of 42 square kilometres. The well is located downdip to the main part of the S2 fan and should provide valuable reservoir information. 9/1 GMT 23.27 PA Resources - PAR:SAX You have to feel Sorry for those caught up in this mess... Yet my views on this Ponzi Scheme are well known.. Tunisa is in serious decline and will soon become economically unviable or need a huge injection of financing to develop further. Financing the company does not have. Congo, well there the company has hitched itīs little wagon to Murphy Oil Corpīs horse and even that company is now starting to pull back earlier estimates. So much so that the tax situation is to be renegotiated as Murphy Oil Corp realises the potential reserves are way below the expected level. And thatīs it! Greenland is just a pipedream as Pare does not have the financial reserves or the technical knowledge to run such a project.. Yet this is what the company does it paints pretty pictures of bright futures - it will be better next year! etc... A classic Ponzi Scheme. If you are in - Get Out! If you are out - Stay Out! 9/1 GMT 20.54 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent - Trans-Alaska Pipeline The Trans-Alaska Pipeline has been shut down since Saturday morning so that is 0.75 mmbopd that is not getting to the Southern marketplace. This comes on the heels of outages and bottleneck issues in Canada which have disrupted oil flows into the US Midwest and impacted supplies at the key delivery point for NYMEX crude futures in Cushing, Okla. This is also bad news for BP as they own 47% of the pipeline... If the shut down goes into the beginning of the week look for the contracts to reflect that. 9/1 GMT 16.37 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM - SPC Technology So the first order from Atlas Copco came in at 8.3 million SEK.. Much more to come. As to any further information regarding the company, SPC or Atlas Copco you will as stated before get none from this site. Good things take time! 9/1 GMT 16.35 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT The stock has traded way down and much of this was for tax write-off purposes.. This will mean that the Buy side should pick up promptly especially as there are a few large interests on the purchasing trail. The company was made an offer/offers to sell part or parts of itīs business at the end of last year, the offer/s were turned down flat. 9/1 GMT 16.33 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX Ended last week on $0.75 which is a 52 week high and ATH.. The stock has moved nicely from the IPO of $0.35, evenso it could be bought last June at $0.29. Very tradable in the interim. The company has a bit over 44 million shares outstanding and the business prospects are very good. Interesting licenses... 21/12 GMT 10.00 EnQuest PLC - ENQ:SAX - ENQ:LSE - Ascent Resources A very smart deal... EnQuest agrees the disposal of its Slovenian asset to Ascent Resources Independent oil and gas production and development company, EnQuest PLC, ("EnQuest" or the "Company") has today agreed to dispose of its 48.75% interest in the Peti?ovci Project (`the Project') in Slovenia, in return for a 22.5% equity stake (150,903,958 new ordinary shares) in Ascent Resources plc ("Ascent"). Ascent is an AIM traded oil and gas exploration and production company. EnQuest acquired its interest in the Project through its recent acquisition of Stratic Energy Corporation ("Stratic"). Based on Ascent's closing share price of 8.5p on 20 December 2010, the value of the shares which will initially be issued to EnQuest is Ģ12.83m. EnQuest also has a nil-cost option to acquire a further 29,686,000 new ordinary shares in Ascent, subject to certain criteria related to the successful development of the Project. The option will potentially allow EnQuest to benefit from the future success of the Project. On completion of this transaction, EnQuest will transfer its existing interest in the Peti?ovci Project to Ascent, increasing Ascent's stake in the Peti?ovci Concession from 26.25% to 75%. EnQuest has committed to a 12 month lock-in and a subsequent 12 month orderly market agreement on all of its shares in Ascent, including those resulting from any exercise of the option. In addition, Ascent has agreed to appoint Graham Cooper, EnQuest's Head of Business Development, to the Board of Ascent as a non-executive director. Graham Cooper, EnQuest's Head of Business Development said; "EnQuest's strategic focus in acquiring Stratic was its interests in West Don and Crawford but this Slovenian project has further potential in its own right. As the operator of this project and the holder of a substantial working interest, Ascent is a natural choice to take over our interest. EnQuest still maintains exposure to the potential benefits of the Peti?ovci project through its ownership in Ascent and will continue active involvement, enabling us to maximise the value of this asset for EnQuest shareholders. We very much look forward to working with Ascent's Managing Director, Jeremy Eng, and his team." 15/12 GMT 04.23 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT Clear and concise PR from the company regarding the debt/creditor situation. The old board ie prior to September 2009 have a lot to answer to, in fact all the debts that the new owners and management are having to deal with steem from the Michael Mathiesen days. That guy saw Cellpoint as his own ATM... So why are creditors coming out of the woodwork!? Well for the first time in years they see a real chance of getting their money back and they just want the best spot in the line. Run the company into receivership today and they will get nothing, same as before. Yet if you stake your claim well then... The new management and board intend to do right by both creditors and shareholders and that earns respect. The company could simply issue more shares to alleviate the situation, but no. This is why I am invested in the New management team of a very potential Gem. 13/12 GMT 20.04 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT Be of good cheer glad tidings are on the way.. 8/12 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 3.8 (API - 7.4 mmbls) Gasoline + 3.8 (API + 4.8 mmbls) Distillates + 2.2 (API + 1.7 mmbls) Crude Import 9.1 mmbopd Gasoline Import 9.4 mmbopd Refiners 87.5% Total Petroleum Inventories - 5.3 mmbls 7/12 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 7.4 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 4.8 mmbls) Distillates (API + 1.7 mmbls) A report that is "all over the place"... Fairly neutral price wise.. 7/12 GMT 14.01 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - New Website Things are moving ahead nicely now.... The current share price is a joke, but a good one when it comes to accumulating shares!! 6/12 GMT 22.03 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX This Puppy is starting to move... Well it has moved nicelly since the site started coverage.. 6/12 GMT 12.17 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - PL409 - 16/7-9 Spudded.. 40 days to TD at 2.700 meters.. 3/12 GMT 17.07 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - Media and Internet Chatter I would not lend much credence to what is being written about the company at a Financial News site.. Pretty low grade journalism in my book... Having contacted the company CEO Peter Djurson I get a very different take on what is really going on. Enough said. 27/11 GMT 03.39 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - PL 338 - 16/1-14 This field just got a little bit bigger! 24/11 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 1.0 (API + 5.2 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.9 (API - 0.5 mmbls) Distillates - 0.5 (API - 0.3 mmbls) Crude Import 9.0 mmbopd Gasoline Import 0.8 mmbopd Refiners 85.5% Total Petroleum Inventories - 0.3 mmbls Total product demand stod at 19.1 mmbopd, + 2.4% year on year.. 23/11 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 5.2 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 0.5 mmbls) Distillates (API - 0.3 mmbls) 16/11 GMT 23.15 The EU - The Euro - The last Gasp - Spain - Irland I wrote.. 6/10 GMT 13.25 Spain "fudging" the economic statistics!? Who would have thought it!! Get rid of the Euro and bring competition back to Europe.. When the Euro was introduced prices went up by 30% - 40% overnight and countries could no longer truelly compete for trade, tourism etc. This hit Spain, Portugal, Greece especially hard and they are now paying the price.. Interestingly the country that would gain the most by leaving the Euro is Germany..... Have the decency to let the EU and the Euro Die!! If it were a horse it would have been shot a long time ago... Until such time however there are huge profits to made on the interest rate spreads in the "peripheral countries".. Interesting that the countries with problems have become "peripheral countries" in EU jargon... Sayīs it all! 15/11 GMT 12.43 Etrion ETX:TO GENEVA, SWITZERLAND Etrion Corporation ("Etrion" or the "Company") (TSX:ETX)(OMX:ETX), an independent solar power producer, today released its interim consolidated financial statements and related management discussion and analysis ("MD&A") for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2010 and 2009. Third Quarter 2010 Highlights * Closing the acquisition of the 24 megawatt ("MW") first tranche of the 33 MW Montalto solar park, the largest in Italy, from SunPower Corp. (and subsequently closing the second and final 9 MW tranche). * Recognizing solar revenues of US$7.0 million (and subsequently receiving the first cash distribution from the 24 MW Montalto solar park of US$3.2 million). * Contracting Phoenix Solar to begin construction on the 3.5 MW solar park in Borgo Piave, Lazio, Italy (and subsequently the 1.7 MW solar park in Rio Martino, Lazio, Italy). * Closing a US$15 million private placement of shares to meet Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") listing requirements (and subsequently completing a fast-track secondary listing on the NASDAQ OMX Stockholm exchange). Management Comments Marco Northland, the Company's CEO, commented, "Etrion made significant progress in the third quarter by beginning construction on our internal development pipeline and completing the purchase of the largest solar power park in Italy. We now have substantial run-rates of revenues and cash flow and have achieved our goal of being dual listed on exchanges in North America and Europe. We are currently the largest solar power producer in Italy and one of the few publicly-traded, pure-play independent solar power producers. We will continue to execute on our large development pipeline in Italy as we look to enter a new market in 2011." Third Quarter 2010 Results For the three months ended September 30, 2010, the Company reported a net loss of US$6.4 million (loss per share of US$0.04) compared to a net loss of US$50.9 million (loss per share of US$0.32) for the three months ended September 30, 2009. For the nine months ended September 30, 2010, the Company reported a net loss of US$14.1 million (loss per share of US$0.09) compared to a net loss of US$54.1 million (loss per share of US$0.34) for the nine months ended September 30, 2009. The results for the first nine months of 2010 are not comparable to the prior year due to the Company's change of business focus. In addition, revenues from the Montalto 24 MW solar park have only been recognized since the date of acquisition, August 5, 2010. The acquisition of the Montalto 9 MW solar park has not been included in the Company's financials for the third quarter as the transaction closed after September 30, 2010. The Company's MD&A contains a detailed analysis of the periods discussed. 14/11 GMT 23.42 Interesting Week Ahead Etrion, Cellpoint... 12/11 GMT 14.46 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - Q3 Report and Bits And now you know... Energy itīs about energy, you know the green kind like Etrionīs... And other very interesting bits.. Due to the recently published interim report and press release that clarifies the company status, AktieTorget has decided to resume trading in the company's shares as from November 15, 2010. 11/11 GMT 22.31 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway I am fairly sure that most investors and even analystīs have not really grasped the importance of what is going on on the Norweigan continental shelf.. More on this. 11/11 GMT 19.29 ShaMaran Petroleum Corp - SNM:TSX New Parliment in Iraq, well more like two steps forward one step back. Yet they could be on to something here... 11/11 GMT 19.07 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - Q3 Report One day late, so what! 11/11 GMT 19.06 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX 2 Billion barrels OIP Oil in place is great, now they just have to find it.. Seriously this new "TYK" is just getting better and better. Nice up-tick on the news. Doubt it will have legs though, yet for the investor with a longish horizon this matters less.. For the trader other rules apply.. 9/11 GMT 19.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 7.4 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 3.5 mmbls) Distillates (API - 4.0 mmbls) 8/11 GMT 12.35 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX Goldman Sachs apparently recommends those who care to follow their lead to sell LUPE, not the best of advice.. 3/11 GMT 15.27 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT I donīt expect any information from the company prior to the Q3 Report on the 11/11.. 3/11 GMT 14.41 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX And a "Big Happy" is what we got! Typical Lundin Report that blows away all expectations, and again they are conservative in future assesments... The Etrion dividend should not make much of a dent in the market value.. 25/10 GMT 16.04 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX Just a general "Big Happy"! 25/10 GMT 03.39 China - Power Output As stated before the Power Output numbers give a good indicator as to where Chinaīs economy is heading.. September power output came in at 348.7 billion kilowatt hours, + 8.1% yoy. This then on top of the August increase of + 12.6% yoy. Much of the increase is due to warm weather conditions and output should slow in the coming months as the government is trying to curtail growth. Also seen in the larger context power output has been fairly mundane during the past year with 340 to 350 billion kilowatt hours being the range. 21/10 GMT 03.27 China - GDP Growth China's economic growth slowed to 9.6% in the third quarter from the same period a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. 21/10 GMT 02.26 Australia - NSW - No More Drought Itīs official nine years of drought in the State are finally over with farmers expecting bumper crops.. Funny how nature sorts things out all by itself... All humans have to do is ADAPT! So scrap the MDBA... 20/10 GMT 01.51 Etrion ETX:TO All things considered I am going to have to give this company a Strong Buy listing... Target $2.00.. 20/10 GMT 00.06 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent WTI closed yesterdays trade at $79.50.. The CLZ10 contracts which come into play on Thursday closed the day at $80.28.. The whole complex is US$ driven as it has been for several months, with China throwing a monkey in the wrench with itīs rate hike. Fundamental demand is still poor and it does not seem like itīs to pick up anytime soon. 19/10 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 2.3 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 0.8 mmbls) Distillates (API - 0.9 mmbls) 18/10 GMT 18.15 EnQuest PLC - ENQ:SAX - ENQ:LSE - Centrica An Enquest purchase of one or more of Centricaīs Oil & Gas Fields makes perfect sense and I belive the speculation concerning this has got legs.. Itīs not as if Enquest doesenīt have the financial resources to make a deal happen. A purchase simply makes good sense. Also Centrica and Lundin Petroleum are already partners in the North Sea... 18/10 GMT 18.14 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - Temporary Trading Halt Perfectly logical turn of events to have Trading Halted.. 15/10 GMT 13.21 Australia - Dollar Parity with the US$ at $US1.0003.. First time in 28 years.. 11/10 GMT 02.41 Iraq - Oil Reserves Iraq has around 143 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, about 24% more than previous estimates, the Iraqi Minister of Oil said on the 4th of October. The reserves are mostly located in 66 oil fields in southern Iraq, Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani announced. What the Iraqi Minister did not tell you is the huge amount of oil that is to be found in Iraqīs Western Desert... Something I have alluded to several times before.... Iraq could very well be the largest source of oil on the planet... 11/10 GMT 02.24 Australia - Dollar 2 cents from parity with the US$, and when this parity occurs look for the - 20% to - 30% drop simply because all of the current trade is speculation. Yet long term, 6 months or less US$ - AUD$ should come in at about AUD$1.10. 8/10 GMT 02.32 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent A little bit too much of the "Bull Factor" for Crude at the moment, helped by the weaker dollar ofcourse yet the contracts have gotten a bit ahead of themselfs and it looks like $70 to $75 is closer than $90.. Global Oil Demand is expected to come in at about - 1.2 to - 1.5 mmbopd lower for 2010 on a year on year basis. The US has inventories of both Crude and Products overflowing. And the World as a whole is heading back down into a hole of lesser growth, demand, production and the rest. Donīt belive the hype... 7/10 GMT 02.15 Australia - Statistics Well the country is doing rather well if you belive the latest numbers.. Total employment stands at 11.324 million in September, 20.000 more than expected. The dollar hit a high of $98.44 to the US$.. The highest level since pretty much ever.... The fun and games begin when the RBA is set in November to once again contemplate the cash rate.. Today 4.5% on an expected rise to 4.75% in November. Yet the Global Economy has a way of getting in the way of good intentions... 6/10 GMT 20.01 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX I have called this one the next "TYK" and there are many reasons why.. The primary reason is that the technology dealing with heavier oil extraction is advancing at a lightspeed pace and therein lies much of the hidden asset base... The team running this company are par none in this part of the sector and hencely it has been given fairly attractive buy ratings not just by this site but by the likes of Canaccord who have had a Lundin relationship spaning many years.. 6/10 GMT 13.55 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT There are Press Releases on the way both this week and next week.. The company CEO is currently in Italy on business and is well aware of the criticism directed at the company for the lack of communication with the marketplace, much of that criticism has come from this website... The reason for the silence is simply that the Management Team are very heavily involved in forming the future of the company. In essence they are "Working Their Butts Off!" 6/10 GMT 13.42 Africa Oil Corp - AOI:V Impressive year for this old favourite, up by over 60% this year.. The dual listing in Stockholm will also help this stock be a much tradable asset going forward. 6/10 GMT 13.37 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Etrion ETX:TO So another "dividend" deal from the Lundins.. Itīs called shareholder value!! Effectivly the deal gives the owners of Lupe a 2%-3% dividend on their holdings and if the Enquest venture is anything to go by a mighty good deal that is.. Etrionīs dual listing in Stockholm will enhance itīs share value especially as it will be the only solar power stock on the market. Something for all those nice, puritan "ethical" funds to get their teeth into. 6/10 GMT 13.25 The EU - The Euro - The last Gasp - Spain Spain "fudging" the economic statistics!? Who would have thought it!! Get rid of the Euro and bring competition back to Europe.. When the Euro was introduced prices went up by 30% - 40% overnight and countries could no longer truelly compete for trade, tourism etc. This hit Spain, Portugal, Greece especially hard and they are now paying the price.. Interestingly the country that would gain the most by leaving the Euro is Germany..... 29/9 GMT 03.24 Sweden - Stocks I can only reiterate, 16/7 GMT 02.37 Sweden - Stocks Strong Buys are given for, Black Pearl Exploration Cellpoint Connect Enquest Guideline Lundin Petroleum 29/9 GMT 01.59 Desire Petroleum - DES:AIM - North Falkland Basin - Rachel 14/15-1 Spudded on the 27/9.. Yeah I know again a bit of old news.. TD is 2.850 meters and drill time about 35 days. 28/9 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 2.4 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 3.0 mmbls) Distillates (API - 2.8 mmbls) Crude Import 9.3 mmbopd Refiners 83.6% US retail gasoline sales are falling compared to last month, last year.. Demand is simply slipping. This despite the fact that prices at the pump are low. Also large crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma the delivery hub for WTI, have helped put Brent at an atypical premium to WTI, which is still well above $2 a barrel. Sorry but I do not see a fundamental upturn anytime soon. 26/9 GMT 15.33 The EU - The Euro - The last Gasp Pick up a history book and read up on the history of Europe and the grand ideas that have been floated about one Europe one State and you find a long red line of foolishness.. The EU in the latest version was supposed to the be The Marketplace the one great economy where everyone was included and got filthy rich.. And here am I trying to chose which country to bet on Spain or Greece as the first one to default on their payments.. The sign that things are starting to come apart Realtime is the politicians decision to start passing laws to bring all of the EUīs countries into line. With heavy and draconian sanctions, mobbing, coercion anything that works.. Well you canīt force member states to make a deal or trade or even like eachother and you certainly can not force their individual economies into a single line. There are currently 16 Euro states in the EU ie countries that have the Euro as a currency and none of these countries have yet lived up to the EUīs rules concerning budget deficits, growth etc. How in the hell are you going to force them to do so? The EU is about to fall apart and I belive Spain will be the instigator as they are way worse off than the official EU Stats show... Yet if you have read this site before you know I have been writing about this for a long time. Break up the EU and let everybody get back to doing business with eachother. 24/9 GMT 20.23 Falkland Islands - Rockhopper Exploration PLC - AIM:RKH - 14/10-2 - Sea Lion 1 Old news that did not end up on the site due to travel.. So just for the symmetry. 14/10-2 - Sea Lion 1 was re-entered in the beginning of the month and over an 18 hour test period produced 2.000 bopd with a peak of 2.304 bopd. API gravity is 29.2.. The well produced no water, no H2S and negligible CO2. Pressure and other testīs were carried out. the well is plugged and abandon as planned. The equipment used for testing was rudimentary due to the geographical factors, yet Rockhopper is the first company to successfully flow oil to surface in Falkland Islands waters. Well I still contend that Shell had oil at the surface during the last large drill campaign way back when... 24/9 GMT 20.04 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - PL338 - Luno - 16/1-14 Apollo Ofcourse the well was spud this morning. The main objective is to discover if the Draupne field continous into PL338, which would be "nice"... TD is 2.500 meters which will take about 50 days to drill. 24/9 GMT 14.56 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - Kincaid Sp. Zoo A conclusion before the end of the month, yet I belive it will happen sooner than that.. There are but a few days left in the month but you also have the end of Q3. Unfortunate that the deal has gotten caught up in formalities. 23/9 GMT 22.31 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - New Rig The Bredford Dolphin Rig will be available for two drills for Lundin from January/February 2011.. Further testing of 16/2-6 Avaldsnes would be one of the drills unless the Transocean Winner rig can be kept in the area.. 23/9 GMT 22.29 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - PL338 - Luno - Apollo Should be spudded in the next day or two. 23/9 GMT 00.18 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API As expected the API numbers were reflected in the DOE stats ie a build.. The details are of less importance, what is is the fact that US commercial crude and refined products inventories - Total Petroleum Inventories have hit a record 1.144 billion barrels, the highest level since the DOE began collecting weekly data in 1990. This then despite the Enbridge close down. The Demand numbers just are not there, distillates in part the sole stand-out. 21/9 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 2.2 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 2.4 mmbls) Distillates (API + 2.5 mmbls) Crude Import 9.2 mmbopd Refiners 85.4% The after effects of the Enbridge pipeline coming back on line. And Demand is pulling back somewhat.. The DOE stats could reflect the same build across the board. 20/9 GMT 22.32 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent The front month WTI October crude contract expires on Tuesday, which always inspires a bit of fun and games.. The Brent - WTI spread has increased again. The Canada-US pipeline may extend this spread. Watch for The Fed... 20/9 GMT 22.09 Sweden - The Election Democracy means Respect, respect for the process and respect for every members right to voice their opinion and respect for all the political parties that grow under the protection of this form of government.. Sweden has shown very little of any of the above during this election.. "Democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried." Sir Winston Churchill Anyway Welcome Sweden, welcome to the Real World! 17/9 GMT 11.51 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - 16/2-6 Avaldsnes So another find in the Norweigan fields.. I belive the estimate of 400 mmbls is conservative as the testing was far from complete. 17/9 GMT 11.22 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - Kincaid Sp. Zoo The reason for the delay in announcing the "the done deal" is the Payment Guarantee ie Bank Guarantee.. And my Educated Guess is that this is due to the HQ Bank mess.. HQ Bank were active in the initial financing by the new financiers in 2009 and I suspect that they were part in the latest deal aswell... So the papers are simply caught up in the Carnegie takeover debacle.. At least that is my Educated Guess. 15/9 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 2.5 (API + 3.3 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.7 (API - 1.0 mmbls) Distillates - 0.2 (API - 1.5 mmbls) Crude Import 9.0 mmbopd Gasoline Import 0.64 mmbopd Refiners 87.6% Total Petroleum Inventories - 2.6 mmbls The Crude numbers were expected to show a draw due to the closure of the Canada-US pipeline owned by Enbridge. Production has been closed down for a week but is expected to be up and running by the weekend. Very low Gasoline Imports yet to be expected.. 14/9 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 3.3 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 1.0 mmbls) Distillates (API - 1.5 mmbls) Crude Import 8.9 mmbopd Refiners 85.6% 14/9 GMT 20.21 Site Updates. Lack of site updates for the last ten days due to travel.. 3/9 GMT 10.05 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - Kincaid Sp. Zoo A done deal.. 3/9 GMT 02.54 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - 16/2-6 Avaldsnes TD... 1/9 GMT 22.11 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT The half-year report is easy reading with the new financiers and board having turned the corner away from the dark dayīs of the old incompetent lot who ran the company. Look for reports about deals being done and a concentration of the business core to keep flowing going forward. Peruse.. to buy a company with a turn-over of 10 million SEK (12 million SEK 2010) and a profit margin of 2 million SEK (3 million SEK 2010) for 2 million Cellpoint shares... The current share valuation is what is called in economist jargon a "joke". The stats, 2008-06-30 2008-12-31 2009-06-30 2009-12-31 2010-06-30 Report type 6 12 6 12 6 The share's ratio value 0,25 kr 0,25 kr 0,25 kr 0,25 kr 0,25 kr Company's stated profit per share -0,66 kr -1,69 kr -0,45 kr -0,34 kr 0,76 kr Total revenue 2,723 Mkr 4,551 Mkr 0,018 Mkr 0,286 Mkr 42,01 Mkr Pre tax revenue -12,255 Mkr -39,899 Mkr -8,183 Mkr -7,6 Mkr 38,09 Mkr Revenue before allocating to accounts -14,630 Mkr -42,254 Mkr -13,149 Mkr -7,6 Mkr 38,14 Mkr Net Revenue -15,552 Mkr -42,254 Mkr -13,149 Mkr -11,05 Mkr 36,45 Mkr Fixed assets 30,174 Mkr 31,552 Mkr 20,257 Mkr 45,05 Mkr 0,54 Mkr Liquid assets 9,753 Mkr 29,896 Mkr 22,216 Mkr 1,719 Mkr 89,03 Mkr Owner's equity 7,520 Mkr 12,700 Mkr -6,042 Mkr 7,09 Mkr 64,62 Mkr Long time debts including distributions 0 Mkr 0 Mkr no data no data no data Short term debt no data 48,749 Mkr 48,838 Mkr 39,6 Mkr 24,95 Mkr 1/9 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 3.4 (API + 4.7 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.2 (API - 0.9 mmbls) Distillates - 0.7 (API - 1.8 mmbls) Crude Import 9.7 mmbopd Gasoline Import 1.1 mmbopd Refiners 87.0% Total Petroleum Inventories + 4.0 mmbls 31/8 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 4.7 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 0.9 mmbls) Distillates (API - 1.8 mmbls) Crude inventories are the highest they have been in 27 years, or as long as stats have been shown for storage.. Total Petroleum inventories are the highest since 1990.. 30/8 GMT 18.13 ShaMaran Petroleum Corp - SNM:TSX ShaMaran Acquires Interest in Major Oil Project in Kurdistan! 26/8 GMT 22.07 USA - GDP The revised Q2 GDP numbers are out Friday and this site belives the number will be revised from 2.4% to 1.3%.. 25/8 GMT 22.36 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent The contracts are more and more following the stock market as the Fundamentals for just Oil are getting very little play.. With Brent out in front of WTI price-wise it does get confusing yet the simple fact is that there is a lot of WTI oil slushing around but the Brent contracts which are far larger in trade do not have the immediate storage stats. That is what is all about well at least in some part. Yet with the US showing all signs of slowing, in this view in particular the Gasoline Demand stats along with the housing sector, manufacturing, banking, etc etc.. The GDP Stats on Friday will be interesting!! As will what Fed Chairman Bernanke says the same day!!! 25/8 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 4.1 (API - 1.9 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.3 (API + 0.7 mmbls) Distillates + 1.8 (API + 1.9 mmbls) Crude Import 9.9 mmbopd Gasoline Import 1.4 mmbopd Refiners 87.7% Total Petroleum Inventories + 8.9 mmbls Despite a low Gasoline price at the pump the Gasoline Inventories increase in the middle of the driving season.. Sayīs one long term thing - Lack of Demand. This report can drive WTI below $70.. 24/8 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 1.9 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 0.7 mmbls) Distillates (API + 1.9 mmbls) Weekly retail gasoline demand fell - 1.2% in the week ending Aug. 20, while prices also slipped. Average gasoline demand fell to 9.5 mmbopd last week, while the national average retail price for gasoline fell four cents to $2.72 per gallon. 19/8 GMT 03.42 Man Made Climate Change - The Lie - The Elections With elections looming in both Australia and Sweden, and the the Greens seeming to pick up a lot of votes I would like to point out that their Fundamentalist view of the world is very, very much in question. In fact it is shown to be just so much Crap.... 19/8 GMT 02.37 PA Resources - PAR:SAX Are people still investing in this - Ponzi Scheme? Amazing!! I did write in 2009, "13/8 GMT 01.52 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Azurite The one thing that I got wrong in this, and this then on information given is that the FDPSO came on-line faster than at first thought.. The technical difficulties that made the start late were initially thought to be far more serious - yet there you are. Still this project is filled with technical issues that have to be solved, sooner or later".... Given all the Fecal material put out by the company you would have thought that the market would have grown up to realise what a scam it is, yet not so.. Greenland is the best one yet.. What ever happened to Gita? It was Dry as this site correctly pointed out! Or Didon 9 or all of the the other,"it will be great next year" projects? Greenland - the company has no future there, no money, no knowhow.. Itīs just an ATM Machine for the Board, another Rights Issue and keep the scheme going... 18/8 GMT 21.27 Falkland Islands - Rockhopper Exploration PLC - AIM:RKH - Ernest 26/6-1 Ernest was a no-show - Dry... 18/8 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 0.8 (API + 6.0 mmbls) Gasoline +- 0.0 (API + 2.0 mmbls) Distillates + 1.1 (API + 2.0 mmbls) Crude Import 9.6 mmbopd Gasoline Import 1.1 mmbopd Refiners 90.0% Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.3 mmbls Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.3 mmbls thatīs the important one... Demand is lackluster and the driving season for Gasoline is quickly coming to an end.. 17/8 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 6.0 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 2.0 mmbls) Distillates (API + 2.0 mmbls) If these numbers correlate with DOEīs, which they do about 75% of the time then the contracts are in for a beating yet again. Basically itīs just a reflection of the Fundamentals. 11/8 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 3.0 (API - 2.2 mmbls) Gasoline + 0.4 (API - 1.5 mmbls) Distillates + 3.5 (API + 2.3 mmbls) Crude Import 9.4 mmbopd Gasoline Import 1.0 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.1 mmbls Refiners 88.1% The Crude draw which was largely expected is ofset by the build in products especially the winter grade Distillates. This report gives no support to the oil contracts.. 10/8 GMT 23.30 USA - The Fed The Fed basically says we are going back to a stimulus package that is equal to the one instigated in March of 2009.. Look for statements on GDP growth, which is far from good revised or not. Unemployment is as important in the US as it is in Europe because that is what drives most economies. Unemployment in the US is going to grown I suspect as it will in Europe once the warm days of summer are gone... The US was the first to head into recession and the first to almost make it out it is now going to be the vanguard of the long process of entering "bad days" yet again. 10/8 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 2.2 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 1.5 mmbls) Distillates (API + 2.3 mmbls) 10/8 GMT 13.50 China - Crude Import Crude Import fell 17.5% in July compared to June to 4.47 mmbopd. Overall Imports rose by 22.7% in July far beneath the estimates. As the World slows as does China... 6/8 GMT 02.03 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - Updated This company has a very, very interesting and profitable journey ahead... Yet the company gets a huge F - minus in the market communications department. Tell the market what itīs all about!!! The smart money already knows, that is anyone who can read a report or a trend knows.. And has done so for a long time. 6/8 GMT 00.47 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent The current "lift" in the contracts is all down to a dollar play - the US Dollar against other currencies. The US driving season is more or less done and still inventories are growing in regards to Gasoline and Distillates which includes Diesel. The fact is that Global Demand for Oil is at Recession levels, in the US this is definitely the case. 6/8 GMT 00.37 The Greywolf Site - 19.000.143 Unique Visitors So, yes well anyway... 6/8 GMT 00.31 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX The drilling season ahead should be as interesting as the first part of the year. A small float in a company that has Eastern Australia pretty much in the Bauxite Bag. Good things do take time. $0.54 year high.. 5/8 GMT 14.30 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT I did write, "If you are selling this stock at anywhere below a Market Cap of 300.000.000 SEK.. Big Mistake! Real Big Mistake! A bold statement you say! I think not!!" Once the mechanics of the deal with Show Verde Unipessoal Lda and other "bits" fall into place the market cap of this company will be about 300.000.000 SEK. This will benefit all the current shareholders and see the start of a new company with an emphasis on technology and internet/mobile applications. 5/8 GMT 01.04 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Q2 Report Great Report! Luno and Morskaya are the majors... This company just does what it does best - Oil! 4/8 GMT 01.30 Australia - Trade Statistics June Trade Surplus $3.54 billion. 4/8 GMT 01.25 Central Banks - Australia RBA As expected the RBA left the rate at 4.5% yesterday and now the focus is moved to the Q4 meetings. Yet this site belives the next move will have to be down! With 3.5% a possible target due to the downturn to come... 3/8 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 0.8 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 2.3 mmbls) Distillates (API + 1.1 mmbls) Refineries 86.7% Very low refinery runs, they should be around 90%.. A build for Gasoline and Distillates despite the low Refinery runs. 3/8 GMT 03.49 Australia - Statistics Retail trade at current prices rose 0.2% in June, compared with the median market forecast of a 0.4% gain. Building approvals fell - 3.3%, most economists had expected a rise of + 1.5%. 3/8 GMT 00.15 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent Ofcourse WTI breaks through $80 for the first time since May, yet volume is low and the US$ weakened. Also Monday was the first trading day of the month so a lot of programme buying kicked in, even in the stock market. The US is on holiday and August is a typical trading month ie nothing for investors in general as the volatility is usually fairly hefty. I donīt think the uptick has legs and if you buy into the market, contracts or shares then make your trades and get out, just because as I said August is the traders Month not the Investors... Also the fundamentals they just arenīt there.. 2/8 GMT 01.49 USA - The Market The S&P 500 is labouring to reach the 200 MA, which is more and more becoming a resistance level of note. The same interestingly applies to the WTI contracts, same situation same problem - same cause. There just aint enough fundamentals out there to warrent a serious breakthrough in either index, this site belives.. 1/8 GMT 22.44 Falkland Islands - Rockhopper Exploration PLC - AIM:RKH - Ernest 26/6-1 About the spud (23/7).. The drill will take 30 days to TD. The Ocean Guardian will after the drill return to Sea Lion 14/10-2 to conduct tests on the oil discovery. That is unless something should happen at Ernest 26/6-1... A hit at Ernest 26/6-1 is estimated to be a 40% chance... 1/8 GMT 01.59 China - Growth or the lack thereof As evident in the Power Output numbers China is slowing down. Manufacturing activity slowed for the third month in July, as production, new orders and purchasing prices all declined.. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing managers index PMI fell to 51.2 in July from 52.1 in June. In May the index stood at 53.9 in April 55.7. GDP in Q2 was 10.3% down from 11.9% in Q1 - the year is expected to come in at, this siteīs estimate 8%. 1/8 GMT 01.28 BP - BP:NYSE BP is looking to sell its German fuel station unit, Aral, for at least $2 billion... Rosneft has already shown interest. Rosneft are also looking at several of BPīs refineries in the North of Germany. In the US BP is being asked by the distributors at the 475 petrol stations nationwide to revert to using the old brand name of Amoco.. BP bought American Amoco in 1998. Sales at BPīs stations are down as much as 40% since the oil spill. 28/7 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 7.3 (API + 3.0 mmbls) Gasoline + 0.1 (API + 0.9 mmbls) Distillates + 0.9 (API + 0.4 mmbls) Crude Import 11.2 mmbopd Gasoline Import 1.1 mmbopd Refineries 90.6% Total Petroleum Inventories + 9.0 mmbls As expected, again... 27/7 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 3.0 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 0.9 mmbls) Distillates (API + 0.4 mmbls) No hurricanes, no disruption to Imports looks again like the DOE numbers could show a build across the board.. 21/7 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 0.4 (API - 0.24 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.1 (API - 0.4 mmbls) Distillates + 3.9 (API + 1.0 mmbls) Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd Gasoline Import 1.2 mmbopd Refiners 91.5% Demand 19.2 mmbopd + 3.0% y-o-y So as expected a build across the board.. Demand looks healthy yet this compared to 2009 which was not a good year. 20/7 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 0.24 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 0.4 mmbls) Distillates (API + 1.0 mmbls) This could very well translate into a build across the board in the DOE stats. The weekly US stats are one thing yet more and more global macroeconomic indicators are taking hold of the sentiment and fundamentals in the contracts trade.. These indicators are all pointing to a slowdown in economic activity much due to the EU mess.. Brake up the political madness that is the EU/EURO now and things might just get going, a little faster... Yet thatīs another posting. US retail Gasoline demand rose by 1.3% from last month and just a little more from the same time 2009, which is not saying much as the US was in deep financial woe... The contracts are more apt to head to $60 than $80. 16/7 GMT 02.37 Sweden - Stocks Strong Buys are given for, Black Pearl Exploration Cellpoint Connect Enquest Guideline Lundin Petroleum 16/7 GMT 02.25 BP - BP:NYSE The stock is doing rather well.. Excuse the pun! The well seemīs to be capped, at last. The cost to BP is yet to be disclosed but it should not be beyond the realms of the companyīs financial capabilities. 14/7 GMT 22.30 China - Power Output As I have pointed to many times China is not going Gangbusters! In fact China has been slowing down since the beginning of the year. Power Output in June was only up by 15% year-on-year at 352 billion kilowatt hours.. This is the lowest monthly increase since Sep/Oct 2009. Yet the numbers should be seen in the light of the fact that in April power generation came in at 331.6 billion kilowatt hours.. Power output reached 340.47 billion kilowatt hours in May, up 18.9% year on year and 2.7% compared with April. In March the total was 336.95 billion kilowatt hours... 13/7 GMT 20.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 1.7 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 1.73 mmbls) Distillates (API + 3.2 mmbls) 7/7 GMT 00.01 BP - BP:NYSE Progress seems to be good on the New Cap.. The stock should correspond accordingly. 9/7 GMT 00.07 USA - Court Allows Offshore Drilling Until Final Decison on Ban A US appeals court Thursday rejected the Obama administration's request to keep a moratorium on deepwater oil drilling in place while the court decides on the legality of the temporary ban. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, based in New Orleans, ruled about an hour after hearing arguments over the administration's request to put on hold a lower court ruling that lifted the six-month moratorium. It also designated August 30 for a hearing on the merits of a suspension of deepwater drilling. This does not mean that drilling will start again as the legal uncertainties are too many, so itīs off to the US Supreme Court sometime in the distant future... 8/7 GMT 11.35 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT The company getīs a C- in the Market Communications Dept, shareholders like information.. An Interim Financial Report dated any day now would be helpful.. The 30/8 is a long way off to wait for a half year report. I think people would like to see some numbers, today! Yet I would attribute much of this to the problems the new owners/financiers have had with the members of the old board who one would have thought would have done their utmost to help rebuild the mess they created, not so. Letīs face it the old board and management saw the company as a "cash cow" or rather their own ATM machine.. If the cash flow got low, a new rights issue! Anyway the old board members were kicked out the back door and the work in restructuring the company has taken up all of managements time, as it should. There are things in the pipeline and good ones at that. This site does itīs homework before promoting a company or stock and it has done so again this time.. 7/7 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 7.3 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 0.1 mmbls) Distillates (API - 1.0 mmbls) Hurricane Alex drew down the Crude supplies more than expected.. 7/7 GMT 00.41 BP - BP:NYSE Trading this one... 2/7 GMT 21.26 USA - Closed for the 4th of July No trades in the US until Tuesday.. So itīs a long weekend. Have a good one! 1/7 GMT 22.56 USA - VIX Index - S&P 500 The S&P crashed through a number of support levels with a low for the day of 1.011... This then ahead of the 4th of July long weekend, markets are closed Monday. The 1.000 is up for grabs and then we are off to the races. Yet this is the market saying that things are not as good as everyone thinks. The VIX fell below 33 which is still a Fair Value number. Then we have Fridayīs Jobs Report! 1/7 GMT 09.44 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT The company has re-launched the community site Trig.Com. More News on the way!! 29/6 GMT 21.42 World - The Markets Stocks drop across the board on worries about the EU, soon to be no more! The recovery in the US, not a great worry yet. But the kicker is China and as this site has been saying for a long time China is not all the market hopes for, far from it... Power Output is 70% of Chinas economy and again this site has pointed to these numbers and warned about the fact that the cheap producer of goods to the rest of the world is in trouble.. Cases in point below.. Yet go back and look at the stats reproduced here even further back in history and you will see the trend. 2/6 GMT 00.10 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent The contracts take a hit at the close of trade on worries about data out later during the week and The China Slow Down factor... This site has for months been saying that China is not going gangbusters, far from it and this fact is now starting to take hold at different levels. Chinas Power Output numbers for instance is one huge clue.. 19/5 GMT 17.10 China - Power Output In April power generation came in at 331.6 billion kilowatt hours.. In March the total was 336.95 billion kilowatt hours, now this means power output fell yet the National Bureau of Statistics calls the difference a climb of 21%.. Well yes if you look at the year-on-year numbers.. Take stats from China for what they are... Yet Industrial production rose 18% in April from a year earlier, increasing electricity needs from factories in the world's biggest exporter of goods, but the increases are compared to a period of very low activity due to the financial crisis. Just a reminder.. 29/6 GMT 01.23 Global Warming - Sydney Sydneysiders have shivered through the city's coldest June morning since 1983 after the temperature dropped to + 4.7C. In Richmond it was - 4.1C just before 7.00am this morning. 28/6 GMT 20.44 The Third Depression I can only agree! In this I would point out that this site called the Financial Crisis long before most.. The Third Depression By PAUL KRUGMAN Neither the Long Depression of the 19th century nor the Great Depression of the 20th was an era of nonstop decline — on the contrary, both included periods when the economy grew. But these episodes of improvement were never enough to undo the damage from the initial slump, and were followed by relapses. We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression. It will probably look more like the Long Depression than the much more severe Great Depression. But the cost — to the world economy and, above all, to the millions of lives blighted by the absence of jobs — will nonetheless be immense. And this third depression will be primarily a failure of policy. Around the world — most recently at last weekend’s deeply discouraging G-20 meeting — governments are obsessing about inflation when the real threat is deflation, preaching the need for belt-tightening when the real problem is inadequate spending. In 2008 and 2009, it seemed as if we might have learned from history. Unlike their predecessors, who raised interest rates in the face of financial crisis, the current leaders of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank slashed rates and moved to support credit markets. Unlike governments of the past, which tried to balance budgets in the face of a plunging economy, today’s governments allowed deficits to rise. And better policies helped the world avoid complete collapse: the recession brought on by the financial crisis arguably ended last summer. 27/6 GMT 21.54 Iran - Crude Export Iran’s oil sales year-on-year to February 2010 fell by 24.3% to $59.55 billion dollars.. Oil sales account for 80% of Irans National Income. Further reductions are expected as the sales to Asia, especially Japan have fallen heavily during the first half of this year. 22/6 GMT 10.38 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - Updated! I did write, "I can only reiterate, "If you are selling this stock at anywhere below a Market Cap of 100.000.000 SEK.. Big Mistake! Real Big Mistake!!"" I would like to revise this statement to read.. "If you are selling this stock at anywhere below a Market Cap of 300.000.000 SEK.. Big Mistake! Real Big Mistake!!" A bold statement you say! I think not!! In acquiring Pyro Group for the sum of 2.5 million shares the company has raised itīs turnover by SEK 6.0 million with a projected post right-off profit of SEK 0.8 million.. Look for more of these types of deals going forward! 16/6 GMT 10.15 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT The new website should give you more than a few clues about as to where this company is heading... More to come I venture.. 15/6 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 0.6 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 1.3 mmbls) Distillates (API + 2.1 mmbls) US retail Gasoline Demand rose 1.4% versus a week ago but fell 2.2% against the 2009 period.. At the same time Gasoline Prices fell last week to their lowest level since February.. 8/6 GMT 02.22 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Sudan OK here we go again... The European Coalition on Oil in Sudan is accusing the company of war crimes.. So here we go again with IKV Pax Christi and Egbert Wesselink... ECOS has a very dubious agenda in this.. IKV Pax Christi is the catholic church on a mission... Donors give IKV Pax Christi big checks to save the world... Letīs just say that old Egbert doesnīt travel in coach on his trips or stay at the local Bed & Breakfast. Christian Aid is big business especially in a country like the Sudan where you have a Muslim North and a Christian South which has most of the Oil.. Yet still controlled by Karthoum. The fight has been ongoing for centuries... Go figure the rest!! 4/6 GMT 01.12 British Petroleum - BP:NYSE - Back in Iraq BP or British Petroleum drilled in the Rumaila oil field in Iraq's oil capital Basra province during the 1950īs and 60īs only to be thrown out as was everybody else when Iraq nationalised itīs oil industry in the 70īs. Since last November British Petroleum along with itīs Chinese partner CNPC have been back in Iraqīs major oil field... BP, like many major oil companies has been providing training for free to Iraq since 2003. Now, with a contract signed to develop the country's largest field, the company has opened an office within the British consulate on the US base in Basra and is preparing to open a full-fledged work camp at the Rumaila field itself... BP-CNPC earn $2 on every barrel produced where both have about a 38% share in the field.. Current production is 1.2 mmbopd.. 3/6 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 1.9 (API - 1.4 mmbls) Gasoline - 2.6 (API - 1.0 mmbls) Distillates + 0.5 (API + 0.9 mmbls) Crude Import 9.5 mmbopd Gasoline Import 1.0 mmbopd Refineries 87.5% Total Petroleum Inventories - 2.3 mmbls Total demand is up by +8.1% y-o-y, yet most of this is in Distillates +17.1% and Jet Fuel +8.1%. Gasoline demand however is only up by 0.5% y-o-y.. 3/6 GMT 14.03 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT The current number of share issued are 45.097.331... If you are selling this stock at anywhere below a Market Cap of 100.000.000 SEK.. Big Mistake! Real Big Mistake!! 3/6 GMT 11.56 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX 2/6 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 1.4 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 1.0 mmbls) Distillates (API + 0.9 mmbls) Crude Import 8.7 mmbopd Refineries 86.6% US gasoline demand at the pump surged 3.7% last week to the highest level since August 2007 as drivers filled their tanks for the Memorial Day weekend. Motorists bought an average 9.71 mmbls of gasoline a day in the week ended May 28. The point being that last weeks stats should be seen in the Memorial Day context... 2/6 GMT 00.54 Iran - Crude Import - Japan Japanīs Import of Crude from Iran in 2010 is set to hit a 17 year low.. As this site has pointed out earlier and in April Japans import of Iranian crude fell by 25% year on year to 296.000 bopd. Sanctions. 2/6 GMT 00.27 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT More direct financing, ie not going to the marketplace.. A chairman who much like the rest of the new investors in the company put their money into their own capability to turn this one into a real winner! With the OBS-listing a thing of the past the management can now continue with the hard work of again turning this one into something completely different.. In this it should be noted that the guys now running the company are highly competent, successful businessmen who are all certified Workaholics.. Itīs time to Rock and Roll! 2/6 GMT 00.16 British Petroleum - BP:NYSE Having lost 30% of itīs market value my earlier assessment was a bit premature yet once the company stops the leak and we start getting an idea of the cost to clear this mess up the stock is attractive. The company has cash-flow of $28 billion with $7 billion in cash current debt to asset ratio is in the 20% region so even with an increase here it is still low, not for the industry but for the company as such. 2/6 GMT 00.10 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent The contracts take a hit at the close of trade on worries about data out later during the week and The China Slow Down factor... This site has for months been saying that China is not going gangbusters, far from it and this fact is now starting to take hold at different levels. Chinas Power Output numbers for instance is one huge clue.. 1/6 GMT 10.35 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT According to the information today from Cellpoint Connect AB the trading with the shares (CPNT) will be transfered to the AktieTorget ordinary Stocklist (from the Observation List) from June 2, 2010. The shares have been traded on the Observation List since September 11, 2009. 31/5 GMT 02.22 Australia - NSW - Surfing Outstanding waves on the South Coast during the weekend... 31/5 GMT 01.39 Japan - Factory Output Japan's industrial output rose +1.3% in April from the previous month. The increase represents growth for the second consecutive month, yet it was lower than average market expectations for an increase of +2.5%. Shipments gained +1.6% from March. Inventory stockpiles rose +0.3%. The April figure showed an increase of +25.9% year on year. 31/5 GMT 01.20 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM - SPC Technology Pretty much on track... 29/5 GMT 00.19 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT Be not disconsolate, good things will come to pass in due time.. 28/5 GMT 00.09 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent NOAA forecastīs an intense Atlantic Hurricane Season this year!... Enough said I guess. It drove the contracts on Thursday and will as usual between June and November be the 20 ton gorilla lurking about. 26/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 2.4 (API + 0.6 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.2 (API - 3.2 mmbls) Distillates - 0.3 (API + 1.5 mmbls) Crude Import 9.9 mmbopd Gasoline Import 1.1 mmbopd Total Petroleum Inventories + 5.9 mmbls! Refiners 87.8% Total Petroleum Demand has picked up by + 6.9% over last year. Yet storage of Crude and Products are higher than last year and the average.. 26/5 GMT 09.22 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway - Luno Drilling permit for wellbore 16/1-14 in production licence 338 26.05.2010 The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) has granted Lundin Norway AS a drilling permit for wellbore 16/1-14, cf. Section 8 of the Resource Management Regulations. Wellbore 16/1-14 will be drilled from the Transocean Winner drilling facility at position 58° 53’ 09.32” North and 1° 12’ 11.49” East following completion of the drilling of wildcat well 16/2-6 for Lundin Norway AS (Lundin) in production licence 501. The drilling program for wellbore 16/1-14 relates to the drilling of a wildcat well in production licence 338. Lundin is the operator with a 50 per cent ownership interest. The other licensees are RWE Dea Norge AS (20 per cent) and Wintershall Norge ASA (30 per cent). The area in this licence consists of central to southeastern parts of block 16/1. The well was drilled 4 kilometres south of 16/1-9 (Draupne) and about 25 kilometres east of 15/3-1 S Gudrun in the central part of the North Sea. Production licence 338 was awarded on 17 December 2004 (APA 2004). This is the fifth well to be drilled in the licence. 25/5 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 0.6 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 3.2 mmbls) Distillates (API + 1.5 mmbls) 25/5 GMT 14.53 Aktietorget - Moves to Burgundy As of today all stocks on Aktietorget are also going to be listed on Burgundy. 25/5 GMT 13.38 Germany - The Market - Ban on All Naked Short Selling The German Finance Ministry is considering a total ban on all Naked Short Selling in Germany. This would include bonds from the Eurozone that are traded in Germany, CDS contracts and certain Derivatives. I hear voices from the 1920īs.... Also you have to question how bad are really things in Germany?? As yet undisclosed... 25/5 GMT 02.05 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent Itīs not easy getting the absolute details correct as to how the contracts will move on a single day yet you can pretty much use a standard form.. "Interesting day.. Yet not surprising. WTI closed at $77.11, Brent $79.50 given on the dollar effect but also on the simple fact.. There are huge amounts of oil in storage across the globe and demand is lackluster... Add to this the slow but steady desintegration of the EU".. This the written on the 6/5.. The same applies. The world is well supplied with Oil, the EU will sooner or later desintegrate. And we are heading for a double-dip.. The fundamentals for Oil at the moment ex risk ie North Korea, Iran.. Says the WTI contract is healthy at $65 to $70. However $55 to $65 could really start moving lackluster economies back on to the road to recovery much faster... 24/5 GMT 21.09 USA - The Market - VIX Index So since the April 20 move down the S&P has fallen just over -12%, with more to come.. The 1.000 level should be in trouble and would see this correction come in at -20% at least. Fair Value for the VIX just now is about 33. 20/5 GMT 11.43 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Yet another Rights Issue And the "Ponzi Scheme" just rolls on... 19/5 GMT 17.10 China - Power Output In April power generation came in at 331.6 billion kilowatt hours.. In March the total was 336.95 billion kilowatt hours, now this means power output fell yet the National Bureau of Statistics calls the difference a climb of 21%.. Well yes if you look at the year-on-year numbers.. Take stats from China for what they are... Yet Industrial production rose 18% in April from a year earlier, increasing electricity needs from factories in the world's biggest exporter of goods, but the increases are compared to a period of very low activity due to the financial crisis. Just a reminder.. 19/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 0.2 (API - 0.8 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.3 (API + 1.0 mmbls) Distillates - 1.0 (API - 0.3 mmbls) Refineries 87.9% Crude Import 9.8 mmbopd Total Petroleum Supplies + 1.2 mmbls Fairly neutral report.. 18/5 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 0.8 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 1.0 mmbls) Distillates (API - 0.3 mmbls) Refineries 85.9% + 1.0% Crude Import 11.0 mmbopd 17/5 GMT 07.29 EnQuest PLC - ENQ:SAX - ENQ:LSE Report Current Net Production 16.340 bopd. New production facilities in Don Southwest, Broom and Thistle are set to come online during Q3-Q4, thus meeting the target production of 18.000 bopd be the end of 2010. 15/5 GMT 02.22 Australia - The Manly Sea Eagles vs Parramatta Eels Sea Eagles vs Eels 7.00 PM 17/5 Brookvale Oval The Eagles will pravail.. In another few games itīs Russell Croweīs "Bunnies" that are going to again, Taste Defeat.. 14/5 GMT 01.47 Falkland Islands - Rockhopper Exploration PLC - AIM:RKH - Oil Discovery Up by + 429.41% since 7/5... Great week for the Falklands! 14/5 GMT 01.23 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX Only $0.14 from a year high.. Really only of interest to the trader, everyone else well you know my thoughtīs on this one. Let it Ride. 14/5 GMT 01.16 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - Observation Listing As Aktietorget follow the same rules that apply to NASDAQOMX regarding trade over the exchanges this site belives that based on these criteria a de-listing from the OBS-list should happen within days.. With the AGM and the Q1 report clearly pointing out that Cellpoint today is a totally different entity from the one that was more or less saved from bankrupty by the new financiers and a new board. A de-listing should for all intents and purposes be "very" much imminent. 11/5 GMT 22.36 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX - Q1 Report The salient points.. * Oil and gas production averaged 6,685 boe/day, a 21% increase over Q1 2009; * Crude oil prices continued to strengthen, averaging WTI US$78.71 per barrel; heavy oil differentials remained tight at 10%; partially offset by a stronger Canadian dollar; * Revenues increased 131% to $36.4 million compared to Q1 in 2009; Cash flow from operations was $15 million, compared with negative $1.8 million in Q1 2009; * Acquired the remaining 20% working interest in the Blackrod SAGD project; we now own 100% of this property; * Drilled 8 development wells at Onion Lake, 60 additional wells planned for the remainder of the year; * Subsequent to March 31, strengthened the balance sheet with an equity offering of 10.3 million common shares for net proceeds of $28.8 million. 11/5 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 0.4 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 0.9 mmbls) Distillates (API + 0.1 mmbls) Refineries 84.9% - 2.5% Crude Import 8.4 mmbopd - 1.4 mmbopd 11/5 GMT 20.23 PA Resources - PAR:SAX Right now this company is Simply one Big Tax Write-Off.. 11/5 GMT 20.05 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - Q1 Report Two things.. apart from the plain numbers which were for the first time in the companyīs history actually worth publishing. An Obs-delisting, Now! Two things.. The increased server capacity at the new company office site which by the way is far more economical than office space on "Lidingö"... The second Kincaid! A further comment will be posted later.. Stay tuned! 11/5 GMT 20.01 Lost Postings A number of postings on the site have been lost. This due to technical reasons. Now Restored. 9/5 GMT 02.01 The Greywolf Site - 18.067.000 Unique Visitors For some obscure reason 18 million visitors from 127 countries find this site a place of interest... 8/5 GMT 22.43 Falkland Islands - Rockhopper Exploration PLC - AIM:RKH - Oil Discovery Rockhopper Exploration, the North Falkland Basin oil and gas exploration company, is pleased to announce that well 14/10-2 on the Sea Lion prospect has reached a depth of 2,744 metres. Initial data collected indicate that this well is an oil discovery, which would be the first in the North Falkland Basin. The Company has run a suite of wireline logs and logging data collected thus far indicate that the well has encountered a 150 metre gross interval of sand and shales. The data show that the well has 53 metres of net pay distributed in multiple pay zones, the thickest of which has a net pay of 25 metres. These pay zones have an average porosity of 19%. Rockhopper now intends to collect additional logging information prior to making a decision whether to plug and abandon the well, or to suspend the well for future testing. The Company is also considering whether to drill an appraisal well on Sea Lion later during the current drilling campaign. Further information will be distributed in due course. Salient facts about 14/10-2 Sea Lion, - 53 metres of net pay in multiple zones. - Thickest sand is also confirmed at approximately 25m net pay. - Average porosity is 19%, with peaks of 28%. - Logs show excellent permeability. In the 25 metre pay zone, permeability ranges between 200 Milidarcy and 500 Milidarcy, with peaks at over 1 Darcy. - No oil/water contact has been encountered. - The company will now proceed with additional log analysis and collect fluid samples. By the way nice trade.... 8/5 GMT 12.18 The EU - Greece Since when is the future of the Greek economy decided be the German Parliment? There is something inherently wrong here.... 8/5 GMT 11.30 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Yet another Rights Issue Another Rights Issue with the sole purpose of paying back old loans... This company has gone from just being Silly to now being totally Ridiculous.. If you are prone to invest in it well then... PA Resources is Benchmark Oil & Gas (Another Swedish oil company Scam), on Steroids.. Still people do happily invest in both companies... It is true there really is at least one fool born every day. If you are offended by my point of view I could not care less! The End. 6/5 GMT 22.39 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent Interesting day.. Yet not surprising. WTI closed at $77.11, Brent $79.50 given on the dollar effect but also on the simple fact.. There are huge amounts of oil in storage across the globe and demand is lackluster... Add to this the slow but steady desintegration of the EU.. 6/5 GMT 08.48 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Production? Have we caught the company in a lie? Azurite is said by the company to have had a daily production of 4.450 bopd during Q1. Yet Murphy Oil, the operator reports their 55% of the production in Q1 came in at 3.714 bopd.... So how can PA Resources with a 35% share see a larger production than the operator? More problems with gross and net... 5/5 GMT 00.20 The EU - A Pigs Breakfast I wrote, 23/2 GMT 00.43 The EU - A Pigs Breakfast.. I give the EU about 2 to 5 years before it is broken up and the lessons of history are again sadly relearned.. I now doubt it will even take 2 years... 5/5 GMT 22.54 USA - VIX Index Itīs going to be interesting going forward.. Volatile markets make for good trading! 5/5 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 2.8 (API + 3.0 mmbls) Gasoline + 1.2 (API + 1.8 mmbls) Distillates + 0.6 (API + 1.3 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 9.8 mmbls Crude Import 10.0 mmbopd Gasoline Import 1.1 mmbopd Refineries 89.6% Total Demand + 2.0% yoy 5/5 GMT 02.31 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX The stock is holding itīs position around AUD$0.35 despite the market at large. This one is worth a good hard look, as I have pointed to earlier... Some things do take time. 4/5 GMT 22.34 Iran - Crude Import - Japan Japanīs Import of Crude from Iran in 2010 is set to hit a 17 year low.. Political pressure ie Sanctions the main reason with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait filling the void. 4/5 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 3.0 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 1.8 mmbls) Distillates (API + 1.3 mmbls) If as expected the DOE confirm these numbers well it ainīt going to help the contracts very much right now.. A fact.. The cost of storing 1 barrel of oil onshore US is today $1 to $1.25 per month. The contracts at the current contango price give you a return of about $3 per barrel over the same month.. Just a note. 4/5 GMT 20.41 British Petroleum - BP:NYSE One of the best buyīs at the moment amongst the majors is BP. For sure it will cost the company to clean up the mess in the Gulf. Yet if you take the time to study stock charts from similar companies that have gone through what BP now is experiencing.. Well letīs just say BP is a Good Buy. With the Dome technique in capping the blow out looking like itīs a winner the third hole should be shut-in next week.. 4/5 GMT 20.29 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent With both Brent and WTI down in the - 4% region the question is why.. Well this site has laid the ground for this scenario for some time as there is an over-supply of Crude in the World and it only takes a Greek crisis or an impending China slowdown to "cool the jets" among the bulls in the market. The Oil Price much like the market at large has been stretching further than the fundamentals to back it up allow. The Gulf oil Spill has little or no effect on the contracts simply because this is not a tight sector. The API stats out later should confirm this. 4/5 GMT 05.08 Central Banks - Australia RBA 4.25% with a bias to hold off on further increases.. Yeah not so much. Another Central Bank firmly on the wrong track. 3/5 GMT 09.13 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Production starts With the production start-ups in Lematang, Indonesia and Volund, Norway pretty much half of the production "lost" to Enquest has been replaced. Net start-up production: Lematang 2.100 boepd Volund 4.100 boepd 3/5 GMT 01.58 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX Enquest was but the first step in the Lundin Petroleum Rejuvenation... 27/4 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 5.3 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 0.7 mmbls) Distillates (API - 1.4 mmbls) Crude Import 9.4 mmbopd Refineries 84.7% - 0.4% 26/4 GMT 12.15 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX I wrote, 27/11 GMT 21.52 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX "I can only reiterate - There is a lot of TYK in this company".. Trust your investment decision and just let it ride! 26/4 GMT 11.55 The EU - Greece There is only one way to fix this. Greece leave the EU! Reestablish your own currency and adjust it to Reality.. This will lead to increased trade with the world at large and bring back competition with countries in the region. Just a thought... 26/4 Australia - Anzac Day Lest We Forget. 23/4 GMT 02.23 The EU - Greece - Government Debt The average Govt Debt in the 27 EU Countries is - 7%. For Greece it was - 12.7% and then it quickly became - 14.0%.. What a great Club to be a member in... The fact is that the failed EU project is severly hurting the Global Economy! There are no gains in an economy of scale as the EU is 27 countries that are totally different from eachother and as it is becoming more apparent with very different views on what constitutes a Federal Economy...... 23/4 GMT 01.15 Iran - Iran begins war games in Persian Gulf oil route Beginning on Thursday Iran is set for three days of Fun & Games in the Persian Gulf. War games are usually held in summer but this year the elite Revolutionary Guard has itchy trigger fingers and could not wait.. One of the toys Iran is bringing to the games is the new attack speedboat, described as an "ultra-speed and smart" vessel called "Ya Mahdi." Iran has also indicated that 313 smaller speedboats with the capability of firing rockets and missiles would participate. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, flew to Zimbabwe on Thursday where he was welcomed by President Robert Mugabe, a meeting of two leaders united in fierce opposition to the West.. Iran is the biggest exhibitor at a trade exposition Ahmadinejad is scheduled to open in Zimbabwe's second city of Bulawayo on Friday. 23/4 GMT 01.05 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT So the Obs-listing is still in place.. Until after the 2010 Q1 Report as if that should carry more weight than an AGM?? So the 11/5 is the Obs-listing End Date! I reiterate, Cellpoint Connect - Strong Buy. 20/4 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 0.7 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 1.7 mmbls) Distillates (API - 3.1 mmbls) Refineries 85.1% There is a build of 1.9 mmbls at Cushing which could give an indication of oil in the system. The API does track oil in other parameters than the DOE... 20/4 GMT 02.17 China - Power Output Chinaīs power generation in March rose 17.6% YoY to 336.95 billion kilowatt hours extending recent rapid growth on the back of rising industrial demand. Yet the YoY percentage should be viewed in the light of the fact that March 2009 was heavily effected by the financial crisis. A Note: As industrial activity accounts for more than 70% of China’s power consumption, consequently power output is viewed as a key economic indicator... 20/4 GMT 01.54 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM - SPC Technology Donīt expect too much information from the company or Atlas Copco until the development of the products are more or less done. Donīt expect any more information from this site either. Apart from the statement that this co-operation between AC and Guideline is going to go far.. A Strong Buy! 19/4 GMT 15.02 Goldman Sachs - GS:NYSE - Warren Buffet Good old boy Warren Buffet has been intimate with GS since 1954.. The oracle ofcourse knew nothing about the current problems... Yeah right.. 19/4 GMT 10.31 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM I did say.. "Patience Is A Virtue".. So the Atlas Copco deal comes to fruition! 19/4 GMT 10.28 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Bankruptcy The fact that CEO Ulrik Jansson is leaving the company is simply the first step on the road to Bankruptcy. That the current CFO Bo Askevik could save the companyīs excistence is just silly. This is the culmination of a process that started with the CEO and CFO leaving the Board last year. The writing has been on the wall for a long time. Bankruptcy! 19/4 GMT 01.45 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent What a change in 20 days.. OPEC and the USA are both looking at lower Crude Demand.. Iran has elevated the shipping frate rates not so much because more oil is shipped across the world but rather because of the fact that 19 VLCCīs and Suemax vessels are currently storing Iranian Crude and this number is growing. In October of 2009 there were about 165 vessels storing oil today that number is about 95, yet this is above the norm as ship storage is not part of any strategic reserve. Asian refiners are heading into the work-over season and the Northen Hemisphere into Summer yet Q2 is a negative quarter as far as the contracts are concerned.. Unfortunatly it looks like Gasoline is going to drive the Crude Contracts this Northen Summer, not good for the recovering economy.... 18/4 GMT 18.54 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT The coming week is going to be a milestone for the "new" Cellpoint Connect! This site gives this stock a recommendation of - Strong Buy. 14/4 GMT 23.27 EnQuest PLC - ENQ:SAX - ENQ:LSE Without going into specifics, this company is not going to sit around doing nothing.. The partnership between Petrofac and the Lundins means forward momentum. Also with the rather bold statement made by Petrofacīs CEO concerning a 30% growth this year, a year that is already nine months old expect - Imminent Motion! 14/4 GMT 02.43 China - Crude Import I wrote, 22/3 GMT 13.31 China - Crude Import China's imports of Iranian crude oil contracted by nearly 40% in the first two months of 2010, compared to the same time last year. Is China perhaps getting positioned for a potential US/Israel military solution or at least tougher sanctions in response to Irans moronic stance on the Nuclear Issue...? The loss of export dollars does hurt Iran! As it turns out China did get onboard the sanctions programme, as they should as should the rest of the world.. 13/4 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 1.4 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 1.6 mmbls) Distillates (API + 1.7 mmbls) A build across the board.. The DOE stats are expected to show pretty much the same picture, much due to the Easter Weekend when demand is lower. 13/4 GMT 19.54 PA Resources - PAR:SAX - PAR:OBX - Production Report This company is in Dire Straits! The Didon field is in serious decline and despite the fact that the company has shut in several wells to increase pressure in the structure it could only produce a bit above 5.000 bopd.. That is a serious problem. Didon is quickly reaching the point where further enhancements, drills are not going to warrent the increased production costs. As for Azurite this is in the hands of the operator, yet if they feel the need for water injection at this early stage in production things do not bode well. Injection is done for several reasons but primarilly to either replace produced fluid in the strata or to increase pressure and if it is the case of the latter then total maximum production estimates aswell as reserve estimates may need to be reassessed. The technical problems on this drill are something I have pointed to many times before and as I wrote last year they have had negative effects on the production time table.. A faulty valve is apparently the current reason and this could mean pretty much anything, yet it is down in the well so if it is a blow out prevention valve or an injection valve is rather beside the point as it has to be fixed, at best. At worst geology could be the culprit yet I have no more information concerning this aspect. The simple fact is that the company has increased itīs debt structure and seeīs falling production numbers. It also has no Plan B if either Didon or Azurite should fail to produce as any new production is years away, at the absolute earliest in 2013/2014... And to attain new production the company is going to have invest huge sums. Then there is the ticking time bomb, the convertible shares issue... At a share price below 18 SEK the convertibles are more or less worthless. Stay away from this one boys and girls! Yet my views are already well known... 7/4 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 2.0 (API + 1.0 mmbls) Gasoline - 2.5 (API - 3.0 mmbls) Distillates + 1.1 (API + 0.7 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 7.2 Crude Import 9.6 mmbopd Gasoline Import 0.75 mmbopd Refineries 84.5% + 3.4% Total Demand + 1.6% yoy 7/4 GMT 02.09 Desire Petroleum - DES:AIM - North Falkland Basin Liz 14/19-A Exploration Well plugged and abandon after finding gas yet with poor quality flow.. Given the "political" situation surrounding these drills I would caution about making a definite decision until the full programme is concluded. 6/4 GMT 05.09 Central Banks - Australia RBA 4.25% with a bias for more, yet then Australia got out of the crisis in far better shape than most if not all! As long as the Resource Run has legs.. 6/4 GMT 03.02 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - EnQuest EnQuest will start the day with an in issue total of 345.159.920 shares.. On par with Petrofac. The Lundin Petroleum demerger terms of 1.3474 EnQuest shares for each Lundin Petroleum share will see a subsequent increased share total of 773.512.635 for EnQuest PLC.. Perhaps a reverse split would be in order... 5/4 GMT 02.11 Central Banks - Australia RBA Will they or wonīt they!?.. I suspect the rate will be left as is on Tuesday.. 1/4 GMT 02.45 Rockhopper Exploration PLC - AIM:RKH Next to drill off the Falklands.. Sea Lion 14/10-B is set to be spudded as soon as the Ocean Guardian drilling rig is released from Desireīs Liz 14/19-A Exploration Well.. 1/4 GMT 02.07 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - EnQuest Today is the last day of trade to partake in the Dividend in the form of 1.34 shares in the new entity EnQuest.. I doubt very much that the Lupe stock will take a beating in comperative terms to the pricing of EnQuest. As to the share price for EnQuest it should end up in the 16 SEK to 20 SEK range - 115 pence to 119 pence. Thus the parts are already worth more than the sum of the whole. Consider also the situation EnQuest will find itself in with no debts, major assets and a partner in Petrofac that has very, very long legs... 30/3 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 0.4 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 0.9 mmbls) Distillates (API - 1.0 mmbls) Crude Import 9.2 mmbopd - 0.3 mmbopd Refineries 82.1% + 1.3% 30/3 GMT 04.13 Oil - VLCC Tankers The surplus of supertankers competing for 2 mmbls cargoes of Middle East crude expanded as oil companies slowed demand for ships. There are 15% more very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, for hire over the next 30 days than there are cargoes, according to the median estimate of five shipbrokers and two owners. A week ago, the excess was 2.5%. Demand is likely to be weakened by Easter holidays this week... 29/3 GMT 01.41 Desire Petroleum - DES:AIM - North Falkland Basin Oil.. Yet at this time it does not seem to be enough for it to be a Commercial Discovery. 28/3 GMT 22.21 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT The bottom line is that the Obs-listing will be in place until after the two AGMīs on 21/4.. After which a removal will not, should not meet any resistance. "House Cleaning" simply has taken the new financiers longer than initially thought.. The good news is that the business of getting the company moving forward is more than just ongoing despite the drawn out process of getting the stock back on to a normal trading status. 25/3 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE Natural Gas + 11 Bcf 24/3 GMT 14.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 7.3 (API + 7.5 mmbls) Gasoline - 2.7 (API - 0.0 mmbls) Distillates - 2.4 (API - 2.5 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 0.4 Crude Import 9.4 mmbopd Gasoline Import 0.6 mmbopd Refineries 81.1% - 0.2% Total Demand + 3.6% yoy 23/3 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 7.5 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 0.0 mmbls) Distillates (API - 2.5 mmbls) Crude Import 9.2 mmbopd + 1.2 mmbopd Refineries 80.8% - 0.5% Crude Imports took back the loss from the week before. 23/3 GMT 09.34 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - New Website All that needs to happen now is for Aktietorget to get a move on and remove the company from the OBS-Listing!! 22/3 GMT 20.30 Africa Oil Corp - AOI:V - Kenya - Bogal - Current Drill Gas... 22/3 GMT 13.31 China - Crude Import China's imports of Iranian crude oil contracted by nearly 40% in the first two months of 2010, compared to the same time last year. Chinese customs data showed that Iran, which was China's third biggest foreign supplier of crude oil last year, slipped to fourth behind Russia in the first two months of 2010. Iran shipped 2.53 million metric tons of crude to China, a fall of 37.2% compared to the first two months of 2009. China's crude shipments from its number one supplier and the world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia, rose 5.4%, and those from Angola and Russia rose 71.6% and 50.8% respectively to take second and third place. Iran was the only major crude supplier to China to show a fall in deliveries, a drop which comes as Western powers have urged Beijing to approve proposed new United Nations Security Council sanctions against Tehran over its disputed nuclear activities. Is China perhaps getting positioned for a potential US/Israel military solution or at least tougher sanctions in response to Irans moronic stance on the Nuclear Issue...? The loss of export dollars does hurt Iran! 22/3 GMT 13.20 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent Again itīs all about the Dollar.. Because $80 just does not have a fundamental leg to stand on.. $60 to $65 perhaps but certainly not $80... The world is over-supplied with oil OPEC has plenty of spare capacity and demand is lackluster. The worry is that large Hedge Funds will drive the price North as is being done with Gasoline at the moment. Nice play and profitable but dangerous for the Global Economy! 20/3 GMT 14.19 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT Good news on the way.! Then find a new Bourse to list the Stock on! First North? 20/3 GMT 14.18 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM Patience Is A Virtue.. 18/2 GMT 03.06 Desire Petroleum - DES:AIM - North Falkland Basin Liz 14/19-A Exploration Well. The 30 day expected drilling time matures in the coming week.. 16/3 GMT 22.53 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX - Trading Halt Australian Bauxite Limited has finalised a placement of 10 million fully paid ordinary shares at 35 cents per share raising $3.5 million before costs. The placement was arranged by State One Stockbroking Ltd. Shares were issued to institutions and sophisticated investors. Settlement of the placement will take place on Thursday, 18th March, 2010. 16/3 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 4.0 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 3.7 mmbls) Distillates (API - 0.8 mmbls) Crude Import 8.0 mmbopd - 1.2 mmbopd Refineries 81.3% + 0.4% 16/3 GMT 03.02 Heritage Oil - HOIL:LSE - HOC:TSX - Iraq The new movement on the Khurdistan/Iraq issue has seen this oiler like most of the other relative minnows in Northen Iraq move nicelly in share price... 15/3 GMT 23.04 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX - Trading Halt Trading Halted.. To resume on 17/3. The reason for the halt is due to an upcoming capital raising. Given the companyīs aspirations and itīs current minute float a influx of capital is simply good sense. 15/3 GMT 06.15 China - Power Output Chinas total power output grew by 7.9% YoY to 269.60 million megawatt hours in February. This then the official statistics. In January power output was 353.1 million megawatt hours... As always it is very difficult to get "straight" stats from China so please take these numbers with a pinch of salt. An Updated version will be forthcoming yet it does very much look like the ouput fell severly in February. 13/3 GMT 05.40 Australian Bauxite Ltd - ABZ:ASX - Tasmania The company has applied for eight new bauxite exploration tenements in Tasmania covering an area totalling 1,508 square kilometres and containing good quality bauxite in favourable settings for potential development. ABZ CEO, Ian Levy - "These unexpectedly high quality bauxite discoveries are especially exciting because they are all in cleared land, near to rail transport networks leading directly to major export ports in a state with a well-developed mining sector. There are also coal mines and an aluminium smelter nearby which could assist in making the processing of bauxite in Tasmania attractive. "Because of this major expansion in our tenement areas, we intend to step-up our exploration efforts to accelerate the rate of expansion in our JORC-compliant resources and to establish project prioritisation. "These new discoveries of bauxite demonstrate that the disciplined work by our exploration team led by Jacob Rebek since 2006, and Tamara Coyte in Tasmania, has given us control of the core of the Eastern Australian Bauxite Province which we believe contains better bauxite than most bauxites world-wide."
13/3 GMT 04.35 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - EnQuest A Swedish oil company that Again actually gives you a Dividend... As long as you own the Stock by the 1/4.. 13/3 GMT 04.28 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT New financiers a new CEO who also has put his own Cash on the line for the Company. The debt situation rectified, new and old commitments being met etc... So Aktietorget when is the company going to be removed from the Observation List? I suspect this will be concluded before the end of the month. Any later and you are in the Realm of the Ridiculous! 10/3 GMT 14.25 China - Crude Demand "Chinese Crude Imports fell 20% in January, down to 4.03 mbopd from the December peak of 5.0 mbopd".. China imported 4.83 mmbopd in February. So basically imports are back at the 2009 December level. The difference being the import/export net... China imported net about 0.2 mmbopd in February. 9/3 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 6.5 mmbls) Gasoline (API - 3.2 mmbls) Distillates (API - 2.8 mmbls) Refineries 80.9% 9/3 GMT 03.30 Spain - You are Fair Game! As with Iceland the market smells weakness in Greece and the EU at large, as it should.. And as a Free Market Capitalist I can only partake.. Spain is the next fruit ripe for the picking.... 7/3 GMT 17.53 Iceland - A glimpse at the Future, yet again.. Icelands economy and itīs problems with Deficit, attack on itīs Currency, Financial Crisis and now a Fiscal Crisis has for years been the forebarer of things to come and so again I belive.. The NO! vote to bailing out UK and Dutch banking customers is a very healthy sign. Yet it is also a preamble to what is to come when the large EU countries like Spain, Italy, UK start going down the tube. Anyway as Iceland goes I belive much of the rest will go aswell, each country taking care of self first.. In this public outrage will grow much like it has in Icelands referendum.. The fact that Icelands Prime Minister thought the referendum pointless - is completely unbelivable or maybe not yet If Icelandians had any sense and they do they should throw Johanna Sigurdardottir out into the Street. Also only in the Socialist mind can a population of citizens of a country be asked to pay back losses incurred by a private bank/entity... Hmmm.. Stimulus Packages.. I wrote in 2008, 3/4 GMT 01.55 Iceland - A study in Desperation The Icelandic State has a Secret Plan to Bag the Big Bad Bear... No itīs not Monty Python itīs for real... Apparently Iceland is going to beat the market place and "put them thar bad hedge funds in their place.." Face it you are fair game... And no you canīt beat the market!! Especially as the Icelandic economy has since two years been a very good testbed for the global problems ahead... And, As stated before this Crisis has not dropped down from a Sunny Summer Sky as it would seem when you hear one politician after another trying to put the whatever back into the bottle... Let the market take care of the market! The decision to put a moratorium on Short Selling is one of the most moronic to date. The Short Sellers be it Hedge Funds or singel entities or whom ever actually called this market exactly right. Let the market take care of the market! 7/3 GMT 16.45 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - EnQuest a classic "Lundin Rejuvenation" Updated The sum of the parts are greater than the sum of the whole.. With the EnQuest construct the above will again become a truism. The market especially the Swedish market has always had a hard time getting the valuation of oil companies right. Most analysts realy only read the company press release and base their assessment on that. The Lundin Oil/Petroleum companies have due to diversification been therefore hard to get a handle on, unless you actually read the complete company report/reports... This deal will open up the valuation of the UK assests and let the current shareholders of Lupe come along for the ride. Interesting that the "lex ASEA" tax rules will be implemented.. A bonus for Swedish shareholders. This overall shareholder construction will be as or possibly more succesfull than the Red Sea or Sodra deal! The London listing is also a major plus, something Lupe should consider or at least an Oslo notation.. 5/3 GMT 01.01 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - EnQuest a classic "Lundin Rejuvenation" So there we have it.. But LUPE is giving away Production and Reserves?... Yeah right now, but there is much more to come!!.. And with the new entity being offered to current owners there is only a win-win outcome. Shareholder value! A Trademark Concept for this Group. 3/3 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 4.1 (API + 2.7 mmbls) Gasoline + 0.7 (API + 0.9 mmbls) Distillates - 0.9 (API - 4.0 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories - 0.3 Crude Import 9.2 mmbopd Gasoline Import 0.77 mmbopd Refineries 81.9% + 0.7% Crude Inventories are - 1.7% below last years level. Gasoline however is 7.6% above the same time last year.. This is of interest as we are heading into Gasoline Season.. 3/3 GMT 02.01 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX Interesting times ahead.. Look for a classic "Lundin Rejuvenation" of the company.. 2/3 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 2.7 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 0.9 mmbls) Distillates (API - 4.0 mmbls) 2/3 GMT 01.25 The Market - Financial Crisis - Fiscal Crisis - The EU I wrote, 20/12 GMT 03.01 The Market - Financial Crisis turns to Fiscal Crisis The Stimulus Packages that have driven the market since earlier this year are about to run out and when they do most politicians will want to roll them over for yet another "Tax-Payer" paid for "stock market run".. This then puts us even deeper into the Fiscal Crisis that is fast coming over the hill. See my earlier postings on this from 2007, 30/10, 9/11 2008 etc... With the EU about to default on all fronts the Fiscal Crisis is going to be way worse than most earlier thought. Yet you have to wonder if most have even given this scenario even one thought.. Central Banks are starting to gear up for rate increases and you have to wonder on which planet these institutions live? The Fiscal Crisis is not going to be quick-fixed with stimulus packages, and this is the root of the problem that I fear is going to be with us for a long time going forward.. 1/3 GMT 12.09 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Petrofac The Financial Times article concerning a possible sale of Lupes UK and North Sea fields to Petrofarc would not include Alvheim or Luno. 26/2 GMT 13.43 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT So the report from the companyīs Annus Horribilis is out and it for sure ainīt pretty reading. Yet itīs also mostly a historic text with little relevance to the company today with new owners, debt situation rectified, new and old commitments being met etc. Itīs now a case of looking forward... 24/2 GMT 16.32 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent Despite the negative stats from the US the contracts rise as it is still all about the Dollar play... 24/2 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 3.0 (API - 3.1 mmbls) Gasoline - 0.9 (API + 1.7 mmbls) Distillates - 0.6 (API - 0.8 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories + 1.4 Crude Import 9.1 mmbopd Gasoline Import 0.85 mmbopd Refineries 81.2% The inventory levels of Gasoline are above the 5 year curve and as such will put a dampener on Crude once the winter season comes to an end. Also Saudi loadings of Crude to the US are at a 23 year low, much due to lower demand but also the fact that Canada and Africa more and more are the suppliers of choice. US domestic production is also increasing... 24/2 GMT 10.41 Africa Oil Corp - AOI:V - Current Drill About 1.000 meters from TD... Not expecting "that" much from this one as I wrote earlier yet a lot can happen over the last kilometer... Please note the last posting was at 1.600 meter from TD, sorry. 24/2 GMT 01.34 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT Friday the 26th seeīs the 2009 accounting report or communique which is the primary vehicle to the stockīs removal from the Observation listing. The report itself will not be happy reading as it is a summary of a "really bad year" yet it is the fact that it can finally be published which is most important. Then there are the things that will follow... 23/2 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 3.1 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 1.7 mmbls) Distillates (API - 0.8 mmbls) Refineries 80.8% + 0.9% 23/2 GMT 03.04 Global Warming Hysteria - Maldives Yes... Well apparently the Maldives are not going to sink into the Indian Ocean due to sea levels rising.. Seems someone got the climate model around the wrong way and sea levels are not going to rise that much, if at all. Well anyway.. Well done all you out there in the Maldives for clinging on to hope and a tall palm tree or something... So how is the Global Warming thing working out for you up there in the Northen Hemisphere?... *G* 23/2 GMT 02.37 PA Resources - PAR:SAX I will make no further comments about this company for the simple reason, whatīs the point.. I just hope that not too many are fooled by the "tricky" accounting practices or the "next year it will all be better" forward looking statements. Remember gross and net production - Big Difference! 23/2 GMT 00.43 The EU - A Pigs Breakfast.. In 2008 the largest government deficits in percentage of GDP were recorded by Greece (-7.7%), Ireland (-7.2%), Romania (-5.5%), the United Kingdom (-5.0%), Malta (-4.7%), Spain (-4.1%), Latvia (-4.1%), Hungary (-3.8%), Poland (-3.6%), France (-3.4%) and Lithuania (-3.2%). In 2010 you can more or less multiply the numbers for Greece and Ireland by two and the rest by about 2.7 and you will get an accurate deficit rate. Remember to be a member of the EU anything below +3% is bad... France and Germany have been below that line for many, many years... Eight Member States registered a government surplus in 2008: Finland (+4.5%), Denmark (+3.4%), Luxembourg (+2.5%), Sweden (+2.5%), Bulgaria (+1.8%), Cyprus (+0.9%), the Netherlands (+0.7%) and Germany (0.0%). Two member states were actually compliant with the Unions own rules.. Today yeah not so much.. Why in the hell would you want to belong to a club full of losers? For instance when Greece joined the Euro, prices in country went up by 30% overnight, prices not wages. To what end? More moronic politicians.... I just donīt get it.. Given my in this particular posting very short and simplistic view of the whole thing yet.. I give the EU about 2 to 5 years before it is broken up and the lessons of history are again sadly relearned.. 22/2 GMT 23.57 Desire Petroleum - DES:AIM - North Falkland Basin - Spud Liz 14/19-A Exploration Well Spud.. The Ocean Guardian arrived in Falklands waters on 19 February 2010, the Liz 14 /19-A exploration well was spudded at 14.15 hours (GMT) on 22 February 2010. The well is being drilled to an estimated target depth of circa 3,500 metres. Drilling operations are expected to take approximately 30 days and a further announcement will be made once drilling is completed. 16/2 GMT 04.47 China - GDP Growth When the Chinese Gov put a squeeze on Bank Credit it did so not to curtail growth but rather to bring the financial side into line with Reality. A reality that is simply such that the Chinese economy is not overheating it is slowing down.. Given I view much of the world through the realm of Commodities yet they are clearly pointing to a post-stimulus package world that is heading for a double dip. China is the worlds producer of cheap goods and the world just ainīt buying enough to carry the economy more than slightly sideways. In this it should be noted that a 5% GDP growth number for China is pretty much Recession like so todays 10% is more like 5% for the rest of the world... 13/2 GMT 16.00 China - Power Output China's power output increased 40.14% year-on-year to 353.1 million megawatt hours (MWh) in January. Now to the actual facts.. A 40% yoy increase does seem impressive and in China size does matter.. The fact is that the increase in output since October 2009 has only been 8.6%. And I suspect growth in Q1 of this year will stay around 5% to 7%.. Simply put Chinas economy is slowing down!.. See earlier post about power output.. 12/2 GMT 16.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude + 2.4 (API + 7.2 mmbls) Gasoline + 2.3 (API + 1.6 mmbls) Distillates - 0.4 (API - 1.5 mmbls) Refineries 79% (API 77.0% - 1.0%) Import 8.3 mmbopd Not going to help the contracts very much.. 12/2 GMT 04.57 Desire Petroleum - DES:AIM - North Falkland Basin - Drill Start Finally the long awaited drilling programme is set to get going.. Four wells, with an option of six more. Diamond Offshore Drilling's semi-submersible unit Ocean Guardian is set to do the work. To be drilled is the Alpha Project. Alpha is a large, well-defined, structural closure, covering an area of over 300 square kilometres. Desire’s mid-estimate for the potential recoverable reserves for Alpha is 7.8 trillion cubic feet, with 15 Tcf in the upside case. The Alpha acreage is bounded by the following coordinates: 49° 20' S 59° 24' W 49° 20' S 58° 54' W 49° 40' S 58° 54' W 49° 40' S 59° 24' W Drilling activity should start in Feb/March, the 13th of February was an initial start date.. 10/2 GMT 13.23 China - Resource Demand January Iron Ore Imports 46.6 million tonnes, down 25% from December. January Copper Imports 292.096 million tonnes, down 21% from December. January Aluminum Imports down 17% from December. 10/2 GMT 13.15 China - Crude Demand Chinese Crude Imports fell 20% in January, down to 4.03 mbopd from the December peak of 5.0 mbopd, yet they are still up 33% year on year. Chinaīs net fuel exports were in January 1.1 mmbopd.. This then due to lower domestic demand.. 10/2 GMT 10.02 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM - MALÅ GPR Australia The company is to expand itīs sales division in Australia and New Zealand. I assume this is to be done via the GPRtech offices below, situated on Sydneys North Shore. Mala GPR Australia Suite 4, 105A Ben Boyd Road Neutral Bay, NSW, 2089 Australia Mob: +61 (0) 43828902 Fax: +61 (0) 2 9908 1484 9/2 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 7.2 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 1.6 mmbls) Distillates (API - 1.5 mmbls) Refineries 77.0% - 1.0% US crude oil stockpiles reached 338 mmbls last week, highest storage stats since October 2009. Itīs called a lack of demand, refining margins. Stats from the DOE will be out Friday, two days late. 9/2 GMT 14.31 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT - New Deals The new guys have been burning the midnight oil of late and hard work pays off! The turn around just keeps turning. This is goin to bloom into something very nice down the road a bit... 9/2 GMT 14.00 Guideline Technology - GODT:NGM Atlas Copco... The story continues and I belive we are getting close to the end game. Howīs that for cryptic.. You just have to be patient.. The financing is fine and simply along the lines of the agreed to structure. Insider shareholders are increasing their stake in the company... Name 30/9/09 21/1/10 Peter Hjort 462,171 1,599,877 Jan Hjort 781,179 1,202,358 Yggdrasil 540,468 1,080,936 Nordica Life 500,000 1,000,000 Mats Nilsson 347,443 944,682 Klas Carlin 291,605 903,978 Olle Grinder 315,907 631,814 Anders H.son. 281,750 563,500 5/2 GMT 20.34 Gazprom - GZPFY:OTC - Shtokman Gas Field Delay Gazprom Delays The Giant Shtokman Gas Field by 3 Years.. Russia has delayed the start of its giant Arctic Shtokman gas field by three years to 2016 after a dip in European demand and a surge in North American shale gas output dampened its export prospects. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) output will begin in 2017 instead of the earlier planned 2014. The decision was made due to - "changes in the market situation and particularly in the LNG market." This decision can and will have an impact on the Nordstream Project.. As the delay to the pipeline part of the project could mean the second Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Europe, which is scheduled to be completed in 2012, will be delayed or have to get gas elsewhere. 5/2 GMT 04.51 World - The Markets Just a quick observation.. The EU wants to be seen as one entity with one policy on most everything, not least of all - Economics. Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain are all in trouble and yet they have to follow EU rules in so far as GDP growth, fiscal matters, etc, etc within the realms of one currency one central bank. The thing is these nations are not states but Nations who happen to for some obscure reason want to be members of a Union. The US, Australia, Canada etc have member states, the EU has member Nations.. Big Difference! 4/2 GMT 22.30 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX - Reserve Report The most salient comments in the report are, "The 2009 reserves are in-line with our expectations. Overall proved plus probable reserves are down slightly due to reserves that were produced in 2009; however, we were able to convert a significant amount of probable reserves to proved reserves as a result of our 2009 activities. While current reserves are important, we are working on some larger, longer term projects that will require additional development before reserves are recognized. This includes our SAGD projects at Blackrod and Onion Lake, where no reserves from thermal recovery have been booked." For sure a huge increase would have been nice, yet that was never on the cards. A serious oil company simply building assets.. 1/2 GMT 03.23 Etrion ETX:TO The listing of the stock in Stockholm will add another dimension to this company... Solar power is the only today most viable alternative energy source.. We happen to be living in the light of a Hydrogen Nuclear Power Plant called - The Sun! 1/2 GMT 00.12 USA - VIX Index 31/1 GMT 23.44 The IPCC - The UNīs own little factory of Lies I wrote, "That the IPCC reports contain lies and politically motivated agendas is not news and this site has been saying so for years... So the Himalayaian lies are just more of the same... There is even more of the same"...... A STARTLING report by the UN climate watchdog that global warming might wipe out 40 per cent of the Amazon rainforest was based on an unsubstantiated claim by green campaigners who had no scientific expertise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in its 2007 benchmark report that even a slight change in rainfall could see swaths of the rainforest rapidly replaced by savanna grassland. The source for its claim was a report from WWF, an environmental pressure group, which was written by two green activists. They had based their "research" on a study published in the science journal Nature, which did not assess rainfall but looked at the impact on the forest of human activity such as logging and burning. WWF said on Saturday it was launching an internal inquiry into the study. This is the third time in as many weeks that serious doubts have been raised over the IPCC's conclusions on climate change. Two weeks ago, after reports in London's The Sunday Times and The Australian, the panel was forced to retract a warning that climate change was likely to melt the Himalayan glaciers by 2035. That warning was also based on claims in a WWF report. The IPCC has been put on the defensive as well over its claims that climate change may be increasing the severity and frequency of natural disasters such as hurricanes and floods. IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri was fighting to keep his job over the weekend after a barrage of criticism. Scientists fear the controversies will be used by climate change sceptics to sway public opinion to ignore global warming - even though the fundamental science, that greenhouse gases can heat the world, remains strong. The latest controversy originates in a report, A Global Review of Forest Fires, that WWF published in 2000. It was commissioned from Andrew Rowell, a freelance journalist and green campaigner who has worked for Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth and anti-smoking organisations. The second author was Peter Moore, a campaigner and policy analyst with WWF. In their report, they suggested that "up to 40 per cent of Brazilian rainforest was extremely sensitive to small reductions in the amount of rainfall" but made clear this was because drier forests were more likely to catch fire. The IPCC report picked up this reference but expanded it to cover the whole Amazon. It also suggested that a slight reduction in rainfall would kill many trees directly, not just by contributing to more fires. The IPCC said: "Up to 40 per cent of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in precipitation; this means the tropical vegetation, hydrology and climate system in South America could change very rapidly to another steady state. "It is more probable that forests will be replaced by ecosystems that have more resistance to multiple stresses caused by temperature increase, droughts and fires, such as tropical savannas." Simon Lewis, a Royal Society research fellow at Leeds University who specialises in tropical forest ecology, described the section of the report by Rowell and Moore predicting the potential destruction of large swaths of the Amazon as "a mess". "The Nature paper is about the interactions of logging damage, fire and periodic droughts, all extremely important in understanding the vulnerability of Amazon forest to drought, but is not related to the vulnerability of these forests to reductions in rainfall," he said. He believes the IPCC should ban the use of reports from campaign groups. "In my opinion, the Rowell and Moore report should not have been cited; it isn't sufficient evidence to back any claim at all, as it contains no primary research data," Mr Lewis said. The WWF said it prided itself on the accuracy of its reports and was investigating the latest concern. "We have a team of people looking at this internationally," said Keith Allott, its climate change campaigner. The Amazon constantly undergoes huge changes because of natural variability in the weather, aside from damage caused by human factors such as logging and agricultural clearance. Spotting the additional impact of global warming against such a changing background is difficult, especially when the world has so far warmed by about 0.7C since the 18th century. The Australian 29/1 GMT 02.23 World - The Markets I am increasingly convinced that we have entered into the - 20% to - 30% Correction in the World Markets.. If the correction is a total collapse is one thing but this could be the year of Sell into every Upturn.. A very tricky yet profitable market for the Trader. Yet I have written about this before.. 29/1 GMT 01.10 Oil World - A Saudi Aramco View Saudis say don't worry about Peak Oil.. DAVOS- There is still plenty of oil in the ground and the world should put aside fears about "peak oil", the head of the Saudi state oil firm Saudi Aramco said on Thursday. "The concern about peak oil is behind us," chief executive Khalid al-Falih told a session on energy supplies at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The peak oil theory that oil supply is at or near its peak gained currency when prices zoomed to a record of nearly $150 a barrel in 2008. The issue remains a concern for many in the industry. Total's chief executive Thierry Desmarest said the world would struggle to surpass 95 mmbopd in the future, 10% above present levels. "The problem of peak oil remains," he told the same panel. His contention was swatted aside by Falih. "Of the 4 trillion barrels of oil the planet is endowed with, only 1 trillion has been produced," Falih said. "Granted most of what remains is more difficult and complex to exploit. yet there's no doubt we can do a lot more than the 95, 100 mmbopd that are projected in the next few decades." Saudi Arabia has a long list of projects in its portfolio that would more than offset declines, he said. 28/1 GMT 20.23 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT The companyīs Debt Situation is now completely Resolved... 28/1 GMT 01.17 China - Crude Demand 2004 6.6 mmbopd 2005 6.4 mmbopd 2006 6.9 mmbopd 2007 7.5 mmbopd 2008 7.9 mmbopd 2009 7.6 mmbopd Plans are underway to construct Strategic Petroleum Reserve storage sites at 8 new locations in phase 2 where China will add a further 170 mmbls of storage in addition to the 104 mmbls completed under phase 1. Some of these sites should be ready by the end of the year. Assuming the SPR is filled over a 3 year time frame this could add a further 1% to 2% to Chinese oil demand going forward. Yet only 19% of Chinas energy needs are met by oil and the countrys growth in oil dependence is weakening, due in large part to advancing technology... 27/1 GMT 12.03 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT The new financiers have pushed the old creditors fairly hard into accepting "something much more tomorrow" against very little today. In this convertible rights into shares has been the way chosen. It is the level of these conversions that is of interest, as they give some indication of target levels. The AGM and resolution of the accounting issues should see this stock head for the 2 SEK level rather smartly. The pre-trading halt level was in the region of 2 SEK... Add to this the new products and other sundries that are in the pipeline... 26/1 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API - 2.2 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 0.9 mmbls) Distillates (API - 2.0 mmbls) At the same time refiners are operating at levels not seen since the shut-down during the 1989 Hurricane Season.. 25/1 GMT 03.52 Oil China - Crude Products Demand China's demand for Gasoline, Diesel and Kerosene, will grow by about 4% in 2010. The same refined products rose an anemic 1.4% in 2009. A total of 400.000 bopd refining capacity will be added this year, and in this increase surpluses of the main refined oil products. Hencely the refined oil market will for all intents and purposes remain oversupplied this year... So we have weak World Oil Demand, more than ample US inventories, rising OPEC and non-OPEC production and questions about the continued growth in Chinaīs Oil Demand.... In this I would like to point out that when it comes to China the numbers most published are those for Crude Import and they are impressive with a 14% increase I seem to recall being the latest year-on-year stat. China has simply not enough oil production today so ofcourse they have to import. However these numbers say very little about actual Crude Demand... 23/1 GMT 01.42 Oil USA - Crude Production North Dakota raised its forecast for oil output on growth in and around the Bakken Shale formation, portending further gains nationwide after the largest US increase since Dwight D. Eisenhower’s first term as president. Output may reach 300.000 to 400.000 bopd by mid 2011 and stay at that level for 10 to 15 years. The state’s previous estimate was 220.000 to 280.000 bopd. The forecast was raised on discoveries by companies such as Continental Resources Inc. Drilling advances are enabling producers to tap the Bakken Field, where rocks lack the porosity and permeability of conventional oil fields. The Bakken contributed to last year’s 7.5% gain in US crude output, the biggest since 1955 and the first in 18 years. The Energy Department forecasts a 1.8% increase in 2010. In this the estimates for 2009 were an increase of 6.4%... New technology is the name of the Game! 22/1 GMT 22.15 Peak Oil - Venezuela - 513 Billion Barrels of Heavy Oil Anyone who has read this site knows my views on the Religion of Peak Oil... Well the Church is about to get another knock... Venezuela has long been known to hold some of the world’s biggest deposits of oil sands — thick bituminous resources that require substantial investments and refining methods to develop. In a new assessment, government geologists with the United States Geological Survey have provided a dramatic new estimate of how much oil is “technically recoverable” from these oil sands, in a well known area known as the Orinoco Oil Belt; 513 Billion Barrels of Heavy Oil! The tally far exceeds previous estimates of around 235 Billion Barrels, and it represents “the largest accumulation ever assessed” by the USGS. The Orinoco is a critical component of Venezuela’s claim to holding the world’s biggest oil reserves, ahead of Saudi Arabia’s 264 billion barrels. But while most of the oil found in the Middle East can be extracted relatively easily through traditional production methods, the Orinoco’s oil sands are as we know tougher to produce. Yet the technology for extracting oil from oil sands is being perfected pretty much everyday by companies in many different parts of the world... New technology is the name of the Game! 22/1 GMT 02.16 China - Power Output What a difference 10 days make... On the 11th only 80% of the stats were published. Still only year-on-year stats... Power output in China surged last month due to economic expansion and a cold snap. Electricity generation in December leapt up 25.9% year-on-year, the strongest growth in a non-holiday month in the last 12 years. Put this against the 10.7% GDP growth in the fourth quarter. 21/1 GMT 23.01 USA - VIX Index The run up of + 24% after two days of losses on the Indexes suggests that large investors like institutions are leaving the Market.. This could be the beginning of the correction I have called for. The weekend can break the momentum yet once this is running it will continue. 21/1 GMT 16.00 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 0.4 (API - 1.8 mmbls) Gasoline + 3.9 (API + 0.7 mmbls) Distillates - 3.3 (API - 3.4 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories - 1.6 Imports 8.5 mmbopd Refiners 78.4% Gasoline Demand - 0.2% Distillate Demand - 6.8% Total Demand - 2.0% Refineries are as stated before in the beginning of work-over mode. Low Imports and Demand is not picking up... Fairly negative Report, again... 21/1 GMT 02.15 China - GDP Growth Q4 GDP +10.7% Year-on-Year.. +8.7% for 2009. Yet China has pumped $1.4 Trillion into itīs economy of late so who knows.. China is not known for presenting Accurate Statistics! Also some economists and in this I would agree note that a 5% annual growth rate in GDP would actually be close to a recession. See earlier postings on this subject. 20/1 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 0.4 (API - 1.8 mmbls) Gasoline + 3.9 (API + 0.7 mmbls) Distillates - 3.3 (API - 3.4 mmbls) Total Petroleum Inventories - 1.6 Imports 8.5 mmbopd Refiners 78.4% Gasoline Demand - 0.2% Distillate Demand - 6.8% Total Demand - 2.0% Refineries are as stated before in the beginning of work-over mode. Low Imports and Demand is not picking up... Fairly negative Report, again... 20/1 GMT 20.07 The IPCC - The UNīs own little factory of Lies That the IPCC reports contain lies and politically motivated agendas is not news and this site has been saying so for years... So the Himalayaian lies are just more of the same... There is even more of the same...... I wrote earlier in 2007, 2007 4/3 GMT 14.45 Climate Change - The Hype To be fair and balanced, below is the abreviated 2007 IPCC Report that later will be published in May by the UN. Where it states that if only humans where eradicated from the planet all would be well... Or something along that line... 2007 12/10 GMT 12.02 The Noble Peace Prize - The Farce Well I guess if you live long enough you get to see all forms of foolishness.. That the Peace Prize is given to Gore and the IPCC for their lies and populist propaganda about man made climate change is just icing on the comedy cake... 2007 10/12 GMT 15.23 Noble Peace Prize Al Gore and the UNīs IPCC are handed the Peace Prize on this day. If that is not a Monty Python Moment I donīt know what would be... Yet take heart humans as we are Omnipotent! Not only are Humans the sole reason for Climate Change, this on a planet that is 4 Billion Years Old where Climate Change has occured in natural cycles for well letīs see 4 Billion Years... BUT Humans are so omnipotent that Humans can actually Change Climate Change... Our weapon to Change Climate Change is - Taxation!! "I pray that there’s intelligent life somewhere up in Space, Cause there’s Bugger all down here on Earth." 20/1 GMT 01.06 The Market - USA Look for a bit of a Rally later today in the US if the Republicans win a Senate seat in Massachusetts. As a win would put the brakes on Obamas different social-ist plans... Also a "no winner gets it all" Senate is good for the markets.. A debatable point, yet there you are. I did say a Bit of a Rally... 19/1 GMT 23.55 Lundin Petroleum LUPE:SAX - Norway New drilling permits, 4 as operator and 3 as participants.. The Lundins just simply doing their thing! More on this... 19/1 GMT 23.51 Africa Oil Corp - AOI:V - Current Drill - Corrected About 1.600 meters from TD... Not expecting "that" much from this one... 18/1 GMT 00.22 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent Opens the week with a further down turn.. Five days in a row last week, more to come this week as "The Fundamentals" for a price even in the $70īs just ainīt there. Warmer weather, seasonally warmer weather is set to linger in the US for awhile, possibly even be the beginnings of an early and warmer spring... The last month or so of freeze has had a marginal effect, because the Fundamentals say - Well Supplied! 16/1 GMT 01.18 Oil - The Contracts - WTI - Brent One of two things need to happen in the Oil Complex, either the price of Crude falls down towards $60 or the price of US Gasoline rises above $3 a gallon. Itīs all about refining margins and at the current Crude level few refiners are happy. OPEC producers on the other hand see todays levels of around $80 as being in the "more than pleased with" territory. Ofcourse oil is still in "Dollar Play" mode with a bit of help from the cold weather on the Northen part of the planet but this is creating problems down the line for the oilers... A summer of the Crude contracts driven by the Gasoline Price? Not unthinkable yet a too high a price of crude or products will kill the economic comeback.. 16/1 GMT 01.10 Cellpoint Connect - CPNT:XSAT An AGM and a delisting from the Observation List could be on the cards as early as before the end of the month.. 12/1 GMT 21.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude (API + 1.2 mmbls) Gasoline (API + 6.8 mmbls) Distillates (API + 3.6 mmbls) Yeah not so good for the contracts.. With warmer weather on the way in the US if the DOE backs up these numbers then we are looking at a very negative market.. 12/1 GMT 01.13 USA - VIX Index Below 17... At the risk of sounding like a broken record.. The correction, or rather adjustment to the new situation is coming ever closer. Financial Crisis turns into Fiscal Crisis.. Stimulus Packages end and then where is the market? In Trouble... 11/1 GMT 23.58 OPEC - Output Saudi Arabian Aramco will keep itīs loadings of Crude to the US, Asia and Europe for February at the current level. Also the Saudis are weary of a "too" high price of Crude that can hurt the economic recovery.. OPECīs current adherence to itīs selfimposed quota is currently at about 50%, something the OPEC core countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are all watching closely. A fine line.... 11/1 GMT 12.43 ShaMaran Petroleum Corp - SNM:TSX I suspect this one is running due to the speculation effect of Iraq recently actually making new deals with the large Oilers over production rights etc.. Another take-over target. Even without the speculative component this company is more than well worth a good hard look. Yet if you have read this site you know this already. 11/1 GMT 11.39 BlackPearl Exploration - PXX:TSX - PXX:SAX Canada’s Industry Minister, Tony Clement, has given PetroChina the go-ahead for a $1.7 billion US dollars acquisition of two oil sand projects. This deal has been brewing since earlier last year but it is now finally approved.... The deal gives the Chinese company 60% control of Athabasca Oil Sands Corporation's MacKay and Dover oil sands deposits in Alberta province. The two are projected to yield five million barrels of oil, according to the company. The sands contain the second-biggest store of oil in the world. They are estimated to hold 175 billion barrels of oil. Only Saudi Arabia holds more. But it is tricky - and costly - to extract oil from such sands. Only in the past few years has the price of oil been high enough to make it worthwhile. Canada's industry minister, Tony Clement, said: "I am satisfied that the investment is likely to be of net benefit to Canada." Hence the rise in the price of PXX... A New TYK it is... now that Canada has opend itself up to Chinese Investment in itīs Resource Industry. 11/1 GMT 01.01 Global Warming? - No, no dear that was last week! - Now itīs called Global Freezing!! So how is this Man Made Climate Change theory working out for You? Not so well I gather... But hey donīt be so disconsolate! An asteroid could hit us anytime and one could always argue that it actually was Man Made... 11/1 GMT 00.47 China - Power Output And so it begins... The reporting of Chinas Power Output for December has suddenly changed and only a year on year comparison is given, for only about 80% of Industry.. Y-O-Y the output increased by 6.7% that is for the full year. The Chinese State is to be trusted about as far as you can throw it. And with Stimulus Packages starting to run out, well if you have read this site for awhile you know the thoughts about this. I belive the December stats were negative to the tune of 5% to 10%... A Note: As industrial activity accounts for more than 70% of China’s power consumption, consequently power output is viewed as a key economic indicator... 7/1 GMT 20.21 Africa Oil Corp - AOI:V - Independent Resource Estimate Interesting reading compiled by Gaffney, Cline & Associates... 6/1 GMT 15.30 Oil USA - Statistics from the DOE - API Crude - 1.3 (API - 2.3 mmbls) Gasoline + 3.7 (API + 5.6 mmbls) Distillates - 0.3 (API - 1.3 mmbls) Crude Imports 8.4 mmbopd Gasoline Imports 0.8 mmbopd Refiners 79.9% The disparity between the DOE and API were not that large.. API tends more to see the crude and Products in the system as opposed to the DOEīs more static numbers. Cold weather though!!! Yet as last weeks show....